Tuesday Market Wrap from Big Al, Cory and Doc
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Opinions given here are not to be construed as investment advice.
Bit confused about today’s commentary – do you mean that gold can move higher or were you guys talking about the conventional stocks?
Ah, sorry – my mistake.
Mental note – do not listen to kereport late at night after having had a beer or two.
Is there any other way to listen?
lol
😉
Sorry about that,of course opinions given her are just opinions,not investment advice.
What i meant to ask was,what does DOCs technicals say about K.TO.
Thank you guys
here not her
My take on HL is that, like Cory said, the weekly RSI is *way* overbought, so extreme caution is advised.
The daily chart shows consolidation this month – which is good because it’s now down, as Doc said.
If I owned HL here/now, I’d hold, but be ready to sell at a break below yesterday’s low, or last week’s low.
If I didn’t own it (and I don’t), then I’d not buy yet, and would wait to see which way we break out of this consolidation. I’d need to see the daily MACD cross up and price to rise out of this consolidation in order for me to buy.
oops – correction – sell below *today’s* low, or last week’s.
Just me. Not advice.
Sorry about that question Al. I really don’t know very much about investing and am trying to gain insight from your show (it has been very helpful) to get help knowing what may be a good move from time to time for my retirement IRA. I lost a significant amount in the 2007-2008 collapse and am trying to build it up again. I don’t really need the money in the IRA at this time, as my military retirement, other company pension and social security are sufficient, as I never went into any debt during my 68 years other than a house, which I have long ago paid off. I do what you do by accumulating precious metals over the years as insurance. Sure do enjoy your show and all of your contributors. Thanks, pardu
I’m 58, but if I had a house paid off, pensions coming in covering cash flow needs, etc., despite losing money in 2008, I’d *not* trade *anything*, and just stack gold coins or small bars, up to maybe 10-20% of estate, as insurance as Al says.
91% of all traders FAIL. This is a fact. If you live w/in your means now, you’re financially independent, and my hat is off to you, sir. Esp. for your service to our country.
If you do trade though, I like Pauls comments on high div solid companies, for the S&P.
And for the PM sector, I’d stay away from all names, and just use the ETFs, GDX and maybe GDXJ. Why? A company like HL or HMY or whatever can drop 20% in a day. I’m watching FCX to see what happens about it’s Indo mine not being re-permitted. Point is, if you don’t know a company inside/out like HL, then it’s best to stand down, and be happy w/smaller but more certain gains.
Study these YTD numbers … ask yourself how much you are willing to risk. Me, I’m GDX all the way. I’m not trading w/pizza money, is why.
$GOLD 19.5%
GLD 19.2%
$SILVER 24%
SLV 23.4%
$HUI 97%
$GDM 77%
GDX 77.8%
GDXJ 88%
HL 120%
AG 202%
SLW 48%
Most traders would donate their left nut to get 20% total all in gains, year after year. Right now, gold alone is 20%. GDX is near 80%.
In Japan the samurai saying is to be careful when cutting one’s beard to not loose one’s neck,
Beats bonds….anytime………..
Pardu, you are way ahead 95+ of adult Americans that can’t even spell gold, much less precious metals. Well done! In your accumulation.
No problem, Pardu—you can ask those questions and just understand that when I answer I’m not giving advice to buy or sell—just giving the odds of movement based on technicals.
I would not play with dynamite like VIXY that you mentioned before. There are easier ways to make money. I would stick with high dividend solid companies for the long term like the techs I mentioned above.
Doc,
I was taken back a bit, when you said the conventional markets could hit new highs. It looks to me like the stock exchange is going down next week or the following week. It might go up a bit more this week, but after that?
Gold looks like it’s going to get hit as well next week. Maybe that’s why all the direxion 3x bears and pro share shorts are going to do a reverse split next week? Same with VIX shares.
Agree Chartster.
The weekly chart on the SPX is pretty ugly.
I’ll bet Doc is looking at the rising MACD and the rising RSI.Two attempts to break the 2125 level is something to pay attention to.Chris noted it and said that a head and shoulder could be forming on the daily.
John, correct; I’m just warning folks about that possibility–in my gut, do I think it happens—no. But the possibility is there.
Thanks Doc,always appreciate your wisdom.
Chartster, I would agree with your assessment about gold. I’m using the silver as a default or proxy for gold right now and it doesn’t look encouraging. I certainly don’t think gold will move significantly higher if silver moves down—the momentum for silver is suggesting a further move down.
As mentioned before I believe that over time silver has a good chance to move down to 15.50—there’s a high degree probability that we see 16.50 soon—that’s almost a slam dunk in my view.
I agree, Doc. The only safe haven looks like TLT or EMs next week. But other commodities are going to turn the corner and go up. Me thinks. Uranium and copper should start a move up here pretty soon.
Many Uranium miners (especially the US companies – like UUUU, UEC, URG, URRE) are primed for a new leg up.
BOE….I keep harping on it
Skeeta – I have Boss Resources on my Uranium watchlist due to your past comments, which I truly appreciate. Keep the great ideas coming my good man!
Very helpful. Great observation. thanks
The conventional, gold , oil and CRB index they all have same pattern of intermediate cycle top forming. Said the news letter i am subscribing. How do you see guys????
Just listen to the daily commentaries from all the gurus on here. You get a good feel for where these guys think the market is going from doing so.
Big Al, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Francis. Not ‘FranSix’. Very bad grammar there.
Gold in the weekly chart has broken out of the continuation pattern and back tested, while the technicals are showing an aggressive, continued rise in the gold price:
Not all the technicals agree.
Not sure I agree with that Fran.
Instead why not go and look at the silver chart for confirmation of your idea. On the hourly there is a topping pattern at strong resistance right now. So silver looks like it will turn down by morning and if so gold will be following making Wednesday a a red day for PM’s.
There is often a symmetry to charts like this.
So the right side of a pattern for some reason wants to roughly mimic what the left side of the chart pattern did. You can see that happening now on a daily silver chart as the peak is completed and ready to fall down the right side matching the left.
In a case like this I might even stop trying to read most technicals and just focus on what the visual impact of the pattern is because that sometimes is as good an indicator as any other. Not foolproof of course but we are dealing with a parabolic shape and they tend to behave in a consistent way once they crash back to Earth.
For silver the suggestion is that it wants to go all the way back to 15.00 dollars with two very large sharp declines interjected by two bounces. After that we have to look at it again but odds are it will stage a rally of some significance.
I am working on a new timing indicator I discovered this past week. I don’t want to say too much about it yet until I test it more but so far its looking really good at giving me advance entry and exit signals that are not directly visible on the metals charts.
Depends on interest rates and what the conventionals are doing, not a price point in silver.
Found this paragraph from John Hussman very interesting and thought others might like to ponder:
“Emphatically – and this point is worth reflection – I am not concerned about major stock market losses because we expect profit margins to decline, or because present conditions remain consistent with an oncoming U.S. recession. Rather, my concern about profit margins is, and always has been, that they can create the mirage of reasonable valuations during periods when business conditions are strong. The argument is not “profit margins are going to decline, and that will bring prices down.” The simple fact is that profit margins don’t have a particularly high correlation with stock price fluctuations to begin with. Rather, the argument is that rich profit margins have distorted popular earnings-based valuation measures (as they always have, but to a much greater degree in recent years), so that investors vastly underestimate how obscene valuations have actually become. This argument continues to hold, and in my view, investors still have a small window to act on that recognition.”
I don’t suppose that’s a megaphone top forming on the weekly SPX chart. Or could it be?
Good call Herbert. I didn’t see that until you mentioned it. The S&P chart itself has a topping megaphone that developed since mid March. Thanks man!!!
Thanks, Birdman. Do you publish articles anywhere? I would be interested to read some.
No I don’t Herbert. This is the only place I do any writing. Its mostly just for the love of the market and my style is usually controversial. But I am not in the business as most others here are so that allows me to take more risk with my viewpoints. Oddly enough I mostly get the calls right (not perfect of course but much better than average). I am unconditionally bearish metals at this time and keep charts that prove I am going to be on the right side of the trade going forward.
Anyway, thanks again for that pointer on the S&P. It was an excellent find as far as I am concerned.
Thanks, Pete. That was interesting.
GREAT ARTICLE……………..THANKS PETE
Thanks,guys
Al – your comment linking the stronger pound is interesting because it puts a finger on a bit of a puzzle. The latest news in the referendum campaign is a speech by prime minister saying that a vote for Brexit would make a return of European war and genocide more likely. Meanwhile, the polls show the leave campaign closing the gap on the remain camp or even with a tiny lead. In these circumstances, the pound should be falling because we are all being told Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
I closed a small spec junior miner position today after it went ballistic & was up intraday over 220%…it actually went higher after that.
Why? Did they hit huge results in drilling?
Errr…nope.
They just mentioned the lithium word.
They ended up approx 150% up from the previous day at the close iirc.
Lithium continues to be a huge magnet for speculation.
Juniors over here are mentioning/drilling/raising capital upon its name alone.
Won’t end well for some….but anyhoo.
Cheers.
For those interested in who I was talking about it was ASX.SCI
*I am no longer a spec shareholder.
Cheers.
Congrats Skeeta! Nice speculative rip. I completely Agree that most of those speculative “Johnny Come Lately” Lithium explorers are going to implode.
It is crazy because I keep seeing more and more companies each week jumping into the sector and staking land, or just saying the “L” word to get press. It is getting way overdone, but like I’ve posted repeatedly, there are really only a handful of legitimate companies, in production or going into production that are NOT part of the Lithium froth & marketing fluff.
Companies like Orocobre, Galaxy Resources, Lithium Americas Corp, Neometals, General Mining, and Nemaska Lithium will still be in business or will be acquired in the next 1-2 years; while all the other deal jumpers are still doing name changes and frantically staking ground to jump on the battery bandwagon.
It is no different than the sea of over 1000 Gold explorers…. only about 10% have money, experienced management, and legitimate assets. Only about 3-5% will actually make it into Gold production…. but most are marketing fodder and moose pasture.
For those that may have missed this post in the weekend onslaught 2 weeks back, I thought I’d repost this discussion between Rick Rule and Robert Friedland, as they discuss the mining business, but in particular Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) or (IVPAF for the OTC)
________________________________________________________________________
Podcast with mining legends Robert Friedland and Rick Rule
April 29, 2016
https://www.ceo.ca/@editor/rick-rule-interview-with-robert-friedland-part-i-of-ii
Ivanhoe Mines has a 3 world class assets – One of the largest and lowest cost copper projects being developed, a second Zinc/Copper asset that gives the Zinc Bulls great exposure, and lastly an amazing PGE/Gold/Base metals asset that will be a game changer in the PGM space.
Here’s a quick blurb and a link to their corporate presentation for those not familiar with Ivanhoe Mines:
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is a Canada-based mineral exploration and development company, whose principal properties are located in Africa. The Company is engaged in the exploration within the Central African Copperbelt and the Bushveld Complex. The Company’s projects include Kamoa Project, Platreef Project and Kipushi Project. The Company’s Kamoa Project is a copper deposit located in the Central African Copperbelt, in Katanga Province, DRC. The Company’s Platreef Project is a PGE, gold, nickel and copper deposit located on the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex, in South Africa. The Company’s Kipushi Project is underground zinc and copper mine in the Central African Copperbelt, in Katanga Province, DRC. The Company also holds interests in mineral properties in the DRC and Gabon, including a land package of approximately 1,600 square kilometers in the Central African Copperbelt.
________________________________________________________________________
Ivanhoe Mines – Corporate Presentation:
http://www.ivanhoemines.com/assets/docs/ppt/presentation-april-20-2016.pdf
From a recent editorial reviewing Ivanhoe:
“Ivanhoe Mines (OTCPK:IVPAF) and its JV partner Zijin Mining (OTCPK:ZIJMF) seem confident with their latest base metals discovery in the DRC and have decided to throw more money faster at the Kakula discovery area at their Kamoa project. The sometimes-larger-than-life-CEO Mr. Robert Friedland himself has taken it upon himself to announce a goal of completing 25,000 meters of additional drilling on the property this year.”
Great information on Ivanhoe,Excelsior.
Mining is never easy,but i think Ivanhoe shareholders (me included) will be pretty happy in a few years.(just my personal opinion)
Thank you.
Thanks Pete.
Yes, it’s a developing story but there are number of milestones they’re working on crossing this year and next year that should provide some fuel for higher share prices.
I just listened to the entire interview with Rick Rule and Robert Friedland for a 2nd time, but all I can say is that I’m EXTREMELY IMPRESSED with the insane grades, size of the deposits, and the economics of the Ivanhoe’s Copper project, their PGM project that has over 6 economic metals inside it and they will be the lowest cost PGM producer on the planet, and their Zinc/Copper project blows my mind with how dense & simultaneously contained their deposit is, which translates to an easier jump into production.
Lastly, Ivanhoe has NO DEBT, and is trading for it’s cash value, and it is like picking up all 3 of their world-class assets for FREE. This makes no sense, but I’ll be continuing to add to my position for the next 1-2 years, and then this will be a long term holding for me (which is rare for me).
In my opinion, they will be a force to be reckoned with in a few years and it doesn’t seem the marketplace has come anywhere close to valuing their company, assets, or share prices correctly. I just thought it was worth mentioning one more time….
BTW – Dr Marc Faber is a Director, and also was on the previous incarnation of Ivanhoe Mines that eventually turned into the modern day company Turquoise Hill Resources. That is when I got interested in this management teams, and and Turquoise Hill is one of the better run Copper companies out there, but I believe this current venture for modern day Ivanhoe Mines, will dwarf that project. This team can deliver:
________________________________________________________________________
Board of Directors
Robert Friedland,
Executive Chairman and founder
Peter Meredith
Former Deputy Chairman,Ivanhoe Mines (now Turquoise Hill Resources)
William Hayden
Former President, Ivanplats (now Ivanhoe Mines)
Livia Mahler
Former Director, Ivanhoe Mines (now Turquoise Hill Resources)
Charles Russell
Former President,Diamond Fields Resources
Ian Cockerill
Former CEO, Gold Fields – Lead Independent Director
Oyvind Hushovd
Former CEO, Falconbridge
Guy de Selliers
Former Executive Committee, EBRD
Dr. Marc Faber
Former Director, Ivanhoe Mines (now Turquoise Hill Resources)
William Lamarque
Former Executive Director, Rothschild
___________________________________________________________________________
Experienced management team
Lars-Eric Johansson
CEO
Former Chief Financial Officer of Falconbridge, Noranda, Kinross Gold and Boliden.
Marna Cloete
CFO
Formerly with PricewaterhouseCoopers; client base included Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Harmony Gold.
Mark Farren
EVP, Operations
22 years at Anglo American Platinum; former Head of Mining. Most recently led development, commissioning and operation of Tharisa Mine in South Africa.
Dr. David Broughton
EVP, Exploration
Key participant in Kamoa and Flatreef discoveries and Kansanshi pre-feasibility; involved in Tenke-Fungurume.
Dr. Patricia Makhesha
Managing Director, of Platreef Project
Formerly with South African Forestry Company, Group Global Forest Products, ABSA Group, the South African Broadcasting Corporation.
Louis Watum
Managing Director,
DRC Operations
Led the development and commissioning of Randgold’s Kibali Project; launched Moto Goldmines’ Moto Project; former Operations Manager at Yatela Gold Mine.
Yes,impressive indeed,the grades and size,but the valuation is ridiculous.
Rick Rule said about Ivanhoe on BNN Aug-12-2015
“The best collection of assets assembled in a junior in my lifetime”
I bet that Rick Rule has seen a few assets,
I think this will be one of those stocks,that when you look back in a few years,you wish you bought more.(in my opinion)
Its a long term hold for me also.
Thank you Excelsior
I agree with Rick Rule after doing more and more homework. This latest press release has many good updates if you haven’t seen it yet:
________________________________________________________________________
Ivanhoe Mines Announces Financial Results and Review of Operations for the First Quarter of 2016
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – May 12, 2016)
I like David Morgan. Really smart guy. But this latest from him is too much to take and officially I can’t tune in to what he says anymore because I know that he will be dead wrong on this call.
Gold And Silver Bullion ‘Super Bull Market’ Initiated Says David Morgan
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-10/gold-and-silver-bullion-%E2%80%98super-bull-market%E2%80%99-initiated-says-david-morgan
Hmmmm Ive got perfect looking charts and breaking out higher again today.
$100 of Ks profit says differently.
I’m no pro but I’m good at charts and been nailing it.
So your still wrong Bird.
A picture does not get any better then this……BEAUTY
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IMG.TO&p=D&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44370971641&a=457257567&listNum=1
Major breakout in ASR happening and SMF looking the same…..
Not sure what charts your looking at Bird?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMF.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02392003960&a=354218427&listNum=1
Bird your one of the brightest bulbs on the tree.
I don’t know if this is a bear rally or a bull…don’t care… the major resistance in behind us on a lot of charts
One of my benchmarks is still telling us silver will fall and keep falling in price. Sorry bulls, but that’s just the way it is. Silver Wheaton (SLW) has clearly defined its top as a Head and Shoulders pattern.
Those tops are about as convincing a pattern as exist in the technical world.
David Morgan is saying that November 2015 was the final PM bottom and that we are about to embark on a Super Bull for both precious metals based on a loss of confidence in our currencies. He adds that the bull will not engage the base metal market in a new commodity super cycle as this is a currency related problem.
That’s nuts. Of course I disagree. There is no loss of confidence in the major currencies at this time except in the gold and silver blogs. Out in the real world most people just continue on with their business and are generally unaffected other than the fact interest rates are historically low.
I won’t disagree that problems are coming of course. I merely contend they are not here yet. And so I cannot fathom how precious metals are about to stage a breakout on their own when such an event has never happened in the past. Of course, most here will already know that commodities generally trade together.
To have one sector suddenly break from the pack and soar would be very novel.
But don’t worry. That is not going to happen. Silver is in the process of a significant correction back down and talk of a new metals bull will be a distant memory in a few months time.
Silver Wheaton confirming that silver prices are going to keep falling.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLW+Interactive#{%22lineWidth%22:%222%22,%22bollingerUpperColor%22:%22#38761d%22,%22bollingerLowerColor%22:%22#38761d%22,%22showSma%22:true,%22smaColors%22:%22#cc0000%22,%22smaPeriods%22:%2250%22,%22smaWidths%22:%221%22,%22smaGhosting%22:%220%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Sorry, but, I do not think, ONE stock can tell you what the entire market on silver is going to do…………..
Pete submitted a great article today……..by Mike Ballenger……would be worth your time to read….jmho
Even Rickards is out today with the news on the micro miners….
and a new subscription……..for his advice on micro mining stock, sure to soar 2600%, which he has uncovered….only cost you about $1750 yr.
He will also, throw in a pair of Levi jeans, a pick and a shovel. The pick and shovel will be for your relative to bury you with………………..
Ha! funny on the pick and shovel comment OOTB.
I think….Rand makes a good point below, on Silver Wheaton…………
SLW is a terible looking chart.
It indicates their abilities in management
Ok, I just got my sell signal on silver for this morning. I am doing a trial a novel method. This post might sound idiotic to others but lets see what happens. Hopefully my idea bears good results during the test phase and I don’t end up with too much egg in face!
So what’s this all about anyway? Well its the search for the Holy Grail of course. We all hope that a day will come when we find an indicator that works reliably on a consistent basis. My timing on precious metals was already pretty good (better than most if you want to know) but fine tuning it to within minutes or hours would be a real coup for trading.
Not that I am going to let on what it is if the thing works. Sorry, that’s for me only!
Closer to the truth of course is the fact that there are no Holy Grail’s. Investors have been searching in vain for years already and even great discoveries seem to only work briefly before something changes in the market. But its still worth a try so we carry on looking.
It’s a dud…..but not a total failure because I might only need fine tuning on the idea. But fear not, I am always happy to humiliate myself again so lets see if I can get it right tomorrow night.
Just in case you think you are talking to yourself…
Thanks Bob. But its too late. I am already crazy as a loon.
Silver Wheaton as a benchmark? With their ongoing legal tax issue? Perhaps not the wisest selection. Then again, technicals are only one part of what makes a market and a stock do what it does.
good point. Rand…….
Well,if you are right,you are a hero and if you are wrong,you get egg in your face.
That seems to be how it works..
So far….it’s not good!!!…..Bring on the eggs
USD down so looks like gold and silver up again.
Silver looking good again today…..Just like I said MONDAY…….
Overseas…..great……..CRIMEX land is another thing…………most likely will get a beating …we will see, NY opens in 17min.
CRIMEX short right on time……………
DOLLAR DOWN. .53 ……93.74…….
DUST could see a new low today with another 10% fall.
Was it Chartser a few days ago who said he expected one more pump up in gold and DUST down to below a dollar?
Bob,
I expect that, but don’t recall saying it. I think Don Corleone mentioned that.
Political News…………TRUMP tied in polls with Hilly zerohedge…………..maybe they caught Hilly pole dancing, and Bill taking in the collections…..
They could snap a picture of her for Sports illustrated magazine and call it “What not to Wear!
Joan Rivers would have a field day with her…..
if, she was still around that is………………..
The GOLD-SAK on Gold….looks better fir the shares
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-05-11/Goldman-Sachs-Lukewarm-On-Gold-Sees-More-Potential-For-Miners.html
I dislike GS………but, “more potential for miners”…..I would agree with……..jmho
Just make sure to get out early ….., GS, needs to suck in some traders, and front run with HFT machine…..
I certainly don’t trust the GSac or the JPMorgue, but it is interesting how they’ve changed their tune since being wrong for 5 months now. Keep those training stops in.
JPM…the biggest crook of all
I meant “trailing”
I am still using training wheels………….. 🙂
The market bottomed on Friday when it managed to hold 2050 and at that time I loaded up with Cisco and Intel to play the upside in a lower risk way and I have bought the dips on BP. Cisco has moved up quite sharply today Both earn high gross margins and are about the highest dividend payers on the Dow as well have rising sales and net profit which is not common these day. I think we head toward 2150 and eventually higher. The target showing is 2189.