The bull vs bear tug of war in the precious metals
We focus on the precious metals today with Doc by first looking at silver compared to silver stocks. The silver price is falling but a number of silver stocks are moving up… Is this complacency or simply investors moving their money from other tired investments to the PMs. No matter what anyone says the metals industry is garnering more attention from investors than in the prior years.
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LOL!! . . . “a death cross has already formed on the silver monthly and in gold it is not far away”
I don’t know what charts you are looking at (or what you are smoking), but on the on ones I am looking at silver performed a 50/200 golden crossing in March of this year. Gold saw a 50/200 golden crossing in late February. The 200 day MA has turned up on both to parallel the 50 day MA. And BTW, even in a solid bull market, the MA’s can occasionally merge for short periods of time as momentum wanes, so even if they were approaching a “death cross,” it doesn’t necessarily mean they are turning down in a significant manner. Doc’s assessments make perfect sense at this point in time.
You are watching the daily chart phil.I was referring to the monthly.With regards to the death cross even when the 50ma crosses below the 100ma is considered a death cross for some market technicians.I am a swing trader and above all a realist phil.I say things as they are and I back what I say with technicals and this one is for the records phil…..gold is gonna drop to 887 by the last quarter of this year and btw I am a no smoker ๐ hope that You will be around by the time it hits that low so we could see who had the last laugh ๐
Wonder if you will be able to purchase any gold at 887?
just wondering , not trying to be smart…… ๐
I am a swing trader and I solely trade paper gold.I trade ups and downs.I put the money were my mouth is.No emotion.Rest assured that if gold/siver trend turns bullish I will be amongst the firsts to claim it.
Got ya Don, ……thanks…….
Since, it is just PAPER trading at the CRIMEX, ….again, wonder if any gold will be available at $887, Phyz.
There seems to be a divorce between paper price and the pm stock prices right down to the juniors.
Re: “Rest assured that if gold/siver trend turns bullish I will be amongst the firsts to claim it.”
Don, you will be among the last. Gold and the miners have already turned bullish whether most people recognize it or not.
We see matthew.This is a waiting game .Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Me included.I am subject to mistakes like anyone else but I try to make the least possiblle,using technicals.You are saying that gold bottom is in and I am saying that it is not.Whose right ?Time will tell.
That is correct, Don.
OOTB most probably physical gold will be priced higher at that time due to shortage but it is just my guess.That is something that I cant chart ๐
thanks again Don………I would agree that the price of phyz, will be higher on the street.
DC:
With a 70 year supply of gold above ground compared with yearly production and yearly demand, just how much higher do you see gold going due to a “shortage?”
There is no other commodity on earth with a 70 year supply above ground.
You are allowed, even encouraged to think for yourself.
There is no shortage, nor will there be any shortage of gold in the future.
Bob moriarty listen to the first 20 seconds of this video.Like I said I dont trade physical gold/silver but this guy surely does and he is renowned worldwide.
I will be . . . and wealthy. Don’t worry.
I am not worrying.Not at all.Take care dude and keep your eyes open ๐
Ahhhhh … you work off of monthly charts.
Your comments of for the past 3-4 months make sense, now
Monthly charts give you the best long term forecast brian.That been said a monthly alone is not enough.One should add other technical indicators to get a clear picture of whats in the pipeline for precious metals.But the best result is achieved when you take commodity currency pair charts like aud/usd,cad/usd,zar/usd into consideration.These are all proxies of commodities especially base and precious metals.Dr. copper and bdi tell me what is coming into play,if it is deflation or inflation.If it is deflation like I think it will then price of assets must go down precious metals included.Another instrument which I found very useful is the dx chart.If usd strengthens like I think it will all assets will fall in price.Gold yields nothing and when stock market collapses portfolio managers will liquidate everything they can put their hands on including miners.
I meant waterfall decline
Don,
You will be proven right. The waterfall decline is coming.
Chartster keep that figure in mind.887.Write that number and pin it infront of you.I cant stress enough how important that number is.
I did it again. Had a bottle of beer, put my feet up on the sofa and listened to Doc. I fell asleep – not you Doc, had a long day here in the UK – and think I dreamed that Doc had gone all bullish on PMs.
I am going to have to listen to that again ๐
Doc, are there any anchovy futures markets we can play?
I think the anchovy situation was the most shocking thing that I have heard on the kereport.
Seriously, there is an anchovy shortage?
Just love my Caesar salad dressing!
Watch the gout bro!
The fewer anchovies the better, I always say. And now they are full of Fukashima radiation.
Buy the soybeans—you might want to look at soyb, an ETF—not investment advice.
The S&P TSX Global Gold Index should see an interim top when the gold/silver ratio bottoms in a strongly inversely correlated position. And this inverse correlation can last for months at a time. But that would imply more upside on the gold price, thus higher mining share prices. I think this indicator reliable, but innaccurate:
Doc, you have been saying for months we would hit lows during the summer doldrums.
Have things changed that much?
Unfortunate your techs didnt see the lows (example svm .60 or ipt .11) was THE time to buy.
But, PMs may have alot of “up” left, heck, there are articles out recently saying silver will hit the same dollar price as gold. Sure, why not?
I think you are spot on Doc . . . a nice steady grind up is better than a parabolic any day . . . this seems like a really nice, easy rising PM market with lots of long term, low stress potential. What could be better?
Phil,
remember he did temper his outlook by saying that he would “watch his back”. I’m sure your stop are always in so not to worry.
Yes . . I ALWAYS have predetermined stops in place. My “back” is covered.
DOC ….IS SPOT ON………..
I am going to keep accumulating and not sell micro-cap (not crap) stocks for awhile. I am using an inverse ETF for now but only as a hedge when things get frothy. I like SGN.V and use HGD as a hedge. Took profits on USA.TO but will be back in soon. Maybe uranium will get hot this fall too, will keep an eye on it.
Thanks Doc and crew. I am too busy to follow everything but check my favourite shows from time to time.
Had a light covering of snow in Calgary this morning (;-)
I agree, Dan. When gold finally gets its next move up started, SGN.V could act like the next Impact Silver. I think that move is coming very soon.
I still have a lot of USA.TO, too.
This is a promising chart:
With Andrew’s pitchfork:
Thanks Matthew for the charts. I am still holding onto my Scorpio Gold shares that I have been accumulating for over a year, and which are quite profitable at present since I added heavily over the last 6 months.
Dan, calgary – It’s always good to see you posting on the KER forum. I agree with you big time on Uranium miners rising in the Fall, and have been adding to my positions the last 2 weeks as I had trimmed them back in March/early April. I’ve been adding to Canadian explorers in the Athabasca, but feel many of those have gotten a bit ahead of themselve, and feel the US producers or near term producers like Energy Fuels, Uranium Energy Corp, Ur-Energy, and Uranium Resources represent great value at present prices. I also have been swing trading Paladin back and forth, but always keeping a core position as I still believe their share price will be a 3 x 10 bagger when Uranium prices snap back next year in 2017 and moving into 2018. Just in case the party gets started in late 2016, then I want a sleeper position in place as the beginning run will be just like we experience in the PM miners …… – meaning the easiest 200-500% increases will be the initial moves out of the starting gate.
Cheers!
Matthew – I’ve been enjoying the gains lately in Eros Resources Corp, as I’m sure you have been as well. Any thoughts on how things may set up for support/resistance levels in the mid-term?
There is a weekly chart gap to fill from .21 to .23 that’s over a year old. After that, .25 is an area that it spent many weeks at.
The high of the last few years is .30 and .135 – .14 looks like good support.
Thanks Matthew. Yes I was looking at that $.21-$.23 region as resistance zone before it punches up to higher levels. This one being more of a project generator may blossom over time and it will just be one of half dozen project generators that I’ll be peppering profits into as a “profit dumpster”.
+1
And for those that are trying to determine price by supply. FORGRT IT. Its a waist of time.
Sprott tried that. No so well.
Matthew
Any opinions on Golden Resources (AUMN)?
Brian
Brian, I don’t follow it but the price/volume action is cause for concern. Was there bad news on May 3rd?
Looking at price to book doesn’t necessarily have much value when it comes to mining stocks but it is not cheap by that measure (@5.3).
Scorpio Gold? How much gold do they have in reserve?
Not enough beyond their current pits, and little hope of bringing more into production. A declining resource and not worth the investment risk. There is a reason it hasn’t moved with it’s peers.
But then again, chartists only focus on charts and not necessarily on sector and company fundamentals.
I look at everything, Rand, and I disagree with you. Scorpio has plenty of exploration potential and more than a “little hope of bringing more into production.”
It gained as much as 133% in February and has now bullishly consolidated the gains and ready to move higher with the price of gold.
You can pay up for the stories worth writing home about but you have to find the overlooked diamonds in the rough if you want serious leverage to the price of gold.
Leverage comes in many forms but is always accompanied by increased risk/uncertainty. The job of the better speculators is to find situations in which there is a mismatch between perceived risk and actual risk and to bet appropriately.
SGN daily:
+1 Matthew. I am in complete agreement with your comments here on Scorpio Gold and in general when looking for the “overlooked diamonds”.
Speaking of Scorpio Gold having “plenty of exploration potential”……here is some exploration success that just came out this week. I believe this company will surprise many investors over the next year as metal prices increase, as their production profile increases, and thus their revenues and cash flows will increase.
____________________________________________________________________________
Scorpio Gold Reports Results from 2016 Exploration Drilling at the Defiance Target, Mineral Ridge Project, Nevada
Vancouver, May 10, 2016
Highlights from RC drilling in 2016 on the Defiance target include:
MR161939: 2.06 grams per tonne (“g/t”) gold over 3.05 meters
MR161942: 6.45 g/t gold over 1.52 meters
MR161944: 2.47 g/t gold over 1.52 meters
MR161947: 2.33 g/t gold over 3.05 meters
MR161990: 2.47 g/t gold over 1.52 meters
MR161992: 3.57 g/t gold over 1.52 meters
MR161995: 2.16 g/t gold over 1.52 meters
MR162025: 2.47 g/t gold over 3.05 meters
MR162026: 9.84 g/t gold over 1.52 meters
And from Scorpio’s presentation:
“Successful 2015 exploration program included discovery of the Custer zone and upgrading of the Oromonte deposit โ both slated for open pit production in 2017 pending permitting
Potential to extend mine life through infill and step – out drilling in 2016 on known
mineralization proximal to deposits and exploration drilling of new open pit targets”
Thanks Matthew, always appreciate your charting.
Ditto.
+1
Where is Birdman, this blog site is not the same without him. If does not comeback soon I will have to remove Kereport from my favorites
And also bookmarks.
Birdman’s wife won’t let him use the computer until he does his dusting and cleaning. DT
Just a quickie…so busy.
Mathews been spot on and Bird off the rails.
Weldon: Bullish as hell on Gold and oil. Dollar major tech breakdown.
Doc done GOOD too….
I’m praying for a correction in gold but very long still on stocks….
We have been right as rain.
Good luck to the bears as Weldons charts are long term and sweet as hell.
Everyone his own doc but gold has not developed a bullish trend yet.It is still in the long bearish trend.Look at the monthly and draw trendlines and you see by yourself what I am talking about.Besides that a death cross has already formed on the silver monthly and in gold it is not far away.That alone should be enough to convince you that a waterfall is in the very near future.This leg up was just a correction and not the start of a bullish trend imho.