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How to Buy Gold at a Discount

May 12, 2016

We will be having Sean on the weekend show this week. He chimes in on the formation on this new bull market for the precious metals.

Click here to visit the original posting page over at NonDollarReport.com.

Good news: You haven’t missed gold’s big bull market.

Sure, gold is up 19% since the start of the year, and gold-mining stocks, as tracked by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), are up a whopping 78%. But you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Even better: I can tell you how to buy gold on the cheap.

But first, let’s jump in the wayback machine to the big bull market in gold and mining stocks that kicked off in late 2000.

The VanEck Vectors wasn’t around back then. Instead, we used what is called the Gold Bugs Index (NYSE: HUI).

051216-acorns

Look at the far left of the chart. The green line tracking the Gold Bugs Index rallied 100% in six months. A 100% move seems like a lot, right?

But it’s barely a blip on this chart.

The Gold Bugs settled down and snoozed for the second half of 2001. Then, at the end of the year, this miners’ index blasted off.

The move higher was furious, with wild swings up and down. If you’d hung on to that roller coaster until its first big peak in 2007, you would have reaped a gain of more than 760%!

The major takeaway from this is twofold: A big gold rally plays out over many years, and the moves up and down in miners are much bigger than the moves in gold.

Now the gold sector is rallying again. And I think the rally we’ve seen so far in 2016 could be a lot like the rally we saw in early 2001. In other words, even though gold-mining stocks have doubled from their January lows, there could be much, much more to come.

So, let’s get to those ways you can buy gold at a discount.

Idea No. 1: The Central Fund of Canada

The Central Fund of Canada (NYSE: CEF) is a closed-end fund that holds physical gold and silver in a vault in Toronto. Unlike exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds like the Central Fund of Canada have a fixed number of shares. So their share prices are a function of demand for their shares.

That means the share price of the Central Fund of Canada can become detached from the underlying value of the gold and silver that it holds. In other words, the share price can trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value.

Late last year, the fund traded at an 11% discount to its NAV. Currently, it trades at a 6% discount.

What does that mean?

It means you can buy $1 worth of gold and silver for less than $0.94 – i.e., a 6% discount.

Here’s a long-term chart of the Central Fund of Canada that shows how its share price can trade at premiums or discounts to its NAV.

051216-gold

Idea No. 2: Seabridge Gold

Seabridge Gold (NYSE: SA) has a market cap of $657 million. It is developing a couple of gold projects in Canada. One of them, KSM, is the world’s largest undeveloped gold-copper project.

All told, Seabridge has 38.2 million ounces of gold and 10 billion tons of copper at its KSM project and 6.5 million ounces of gold at its Courageous Lake project. That’s 45 million ounces of gold equivalent, which means each of the company’s 51 million shares is backed up by 0.85 ounces of gold.

Gold recently traded at $1,270 per ounce. So each company’s share is backed up by $1,080 worth of gold. Meanwhile, the stock trades at just $13.49 per share.

Sure, gold in the ground isn’t the same as gold in the vault. It will cost a lot of money to get that gold out of the ground, and the company has only $20 million in cash. That’s not nearly enough to develop its big project. So Seabridge will have to find a partner or else borrow a lot of money to bring this resource into production.

But with the price of gold going up, I’d say the odds are on the side of a favorable outcome for Seabridge.

Seabridge has quadrupled since last July. So some might say that the stock has gotten ahead of itself. Maybe so. But go back and look at my first chart. When bull runs start in gold, they go further and last longer than most people can imagine.

I think the best is yet to come for Seabridge. And when you buy Seabridge, you’re getting that gold at a huge discount. But remember, this is a very speculative stock.

So if you want physical gold and silver at a small discount, buy Central Fund of Canada. If you want gold in the ground at a large discount – but with lots of risk to go along with it – buy Seabridge Gold.

Good investing,

Sean Brodrick

Discussion
7 Comments
    May 12, 2016 12:16 PM

    CEF was acquired by Sprot.

    May 12, 2016 12:06 PM

    No it was not, another issue besides CEF

      May 12, 2016 12:32 PM

      Yes, I think the hostile bid was almost complete when it got tied up in a legal battle. But Sprott was saying that it was in the bag.

    May 12, 2016 12:20 PM

    Central gold trust GTU was acquired by Sprott. Not CEF

      May 12, 2016 12:10 PM

      OK, good info. Didn’t follow the story that closely.

    May 12, 2016 12:36 PM

    Bitgold.com is another option.