Doc’s mentality for investing in this gold market
Before Doc goes away for a couple weeks he recaps his investing strategies for this new (potential) gold market. There are a lot of investors looking for a little pullback in the metals price and stock prices but Doc thinks that on any pullbacks he will be buying.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I Love these pictorials………..
Since Doc will be gone for two weeks, you can just post these pictorials everyday at the MARKET WRAP………. 🙂
Check this number out.
London annual trading volume ,gold………….1,355,000 tons.
If, you take BOB M. number, of 70 yrs. worth of available supply
70yrs. x 3200 (annual production)………….224,000 tons
Something is screwy……………..
Soros………has 19 million shares of Barricks….Hedge funds are back….
Bottom is in………………….
M&A……..on the way………..
I agree with Doc
Al & Corey, every so often, reiterate having a core position in provisions and the actual metals themselves. The Wickedness in High places is capable of anything,- false flags, EMP attack with no retaliation by authorities. Just look at Wall st with $150 billion of fines since 2008 and no one but Madoff in jail. Need I say more.
Doc the next 2 weeks are gonna be very crucial for gold.The next level that I am watching is 1307.64.I have been saying all along that gold is forming an expanded diagonal triangle and to remain valid price shall not move beyond that level.The 200wma is closing in.It is currently at 1320.The roc and slow stochastic on the monthly are a tad close to the upper trendline.There is still some upward room for gold but not much.Wait until fall to deploy the rest of your money doc.my 2cents.Last but not least take care and bon voyage doc.Have a nice holiday my friend.Enjoy!
Doc another indicator that I am watching is the monthly bb(20).The ubb is at 1307.108,slightly lower than the 1307.64 invalidation point.Another indicator that I suggest you to watch doc is the monthly stoch rsi.Set the stoch rsi to 14 period and 3 ema period.The k% line has touched the d% line.They are embedded atm but my gut feeling tells me that the k line will soon move below the d line.Gold is teetering on the edge of the cliff
Thanks, Don; I appreciate it.
I agree, Don. The daily looks like a slow week this week. But the weekly chart is really starting to look like a move is coming. A move down that is. There’s very little room to go to the upside. Starting next week and into June will be interesting to watch. A lot of other assets look like they are going to get some nice moves started. Maybe soon as late this week. BBands getting tight on all kinds of stuff.
Have a great trip, Doc. Fulfill the primary purpose and be safe. And fulfill your secondary purpose and Have Fun!!
Doc.
Have a wonderful time and come back for sure. thank you sir.
Hello Don Corleone. Why not just use the January 2015 high of $1307.80? It is the resistance line everyone should be watching to see if gold can close above it.
Next, the $1321.50 spike down low from early 2013 is the breakdown that started the last 3 years of downwards consolidation.
IMO $1307.80 and $1321.50 are the 2 crucial levels Gold must close above to get the money on the sidelines to start coming back in. I still want to see $1347 and $1392 taken out as well for the long term, but would consider a close in gold up in the mid $1320s to be a major game changer.
Here is a GOLD CHART showing the all the peaks and troughs from the last 4 years, and you’ll see the $1307.80 peak and the HUGE volume on the $1321.50 trough back in 2013.
In addition you can see the $1346.80 and $1392.60 peaks that are also significant.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2012-05-01&en=2016-05-17&&id=p27575549638
EX……..read my note above………Soro, bought 19million shares of Barricks……kitco
the money is moving off the sidelines………..
forget the paper price…………
Hi OOTB. Yes, there is money coming in off the sidelines for sure, and there has been all year long.
My point is that once Gold closes above the long-standing upside resistance targets mentioned above (which are the prior peaks), then I believe there are many many more investors that will be flooding back into the Gold sector, and thus provide the oomph to send the miners much higher.
Also I was just wondering why Don Corleone wouldn’t just use the much more prominent number of $1307.80 (Jan 2015 peak) versus 1307.64;
In addition the much more prominent and incredibly significant $1321.50 from 2013 that had massive volume and kicked off the last 3 years downward consolidation versus the 200 MA around $1320ish.
Both sets of numbers are very close anyway, but 2015 peak and the 2013 spike low seem like the obvious targets, and they have been for over a year. The other targets people have been posting have changed with the moving averages or fib calculations over time, but those peaks/troughs have been sitting there for anyone to see for quite some time, and I’ve posted on them very regularly, as well as the $1346.80 ($1347) or the $1392.60 ($1392) targets that I’ve been posting on for almost 2 years now.
Once those targets fall, even the mainstream investors will start eyeballing gold and the related miners again.
Shad the january 2015 high according to my chart was 1307.64.If price breached that level than the pattern that I am will be invalidated.Dx has one final leg up to complete to 110/120 level and gold a final leg down to 850 minimum.
I had a typo ppl …I wanted to say that if price breaches that level then the pattern that I am watching will be invalidated.
Gotcha. I though you were using a mathematical calculation based on fib levels or Elliot Wave projections and though you may just want to round it up $.16 to the Jan peak.
I use Stockcharts personally and that is just the peak they have listed from 2016. They also have $1321.50 as the spike low back in 2013, and that is very important for Gold to close above to solidify the case that Gold is in a new bull market.
I fully agree with what you have said regarding the 1321.50 level shad.
Yes, it was definitely when people realized the bottom was going to take much longer than people anticipated. Many people assumed that move was the bottom, but it was too severe, and had such a huge volume spike, that people dealing in the real knew Gold had much more correcting and bottoming to do. Having said that, I doubt anyone realized it would be 3 more years……
That is why it is so crucial for Gold to close above it to convince many technical traders that Gold is out of the danger zone.
I posted this chart up above but if you look at that volume when $1321.50 was hit it was really stunning, and you can see the trail of tears it left in its wake…..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2012-05-01&en=2016-05-17&&id=p27575549638
What country are you going to, Doc? I hope you aren’t going to Venezuela or Syria.
Bon voyage,
Bonzo
Doc, if you are going to NW Australia I hope you will find time to visit the properties of Novo Resources to find out for us if they have found another Witwatersrand elephant out there. Good luck!
Funny Bonzo Barzini. I’m liking the action in Novo Resources as well.
My wife schedules these things, Bonzo. I believe we’re going to see a little of Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Czech Republic and Germany.
Wow – That sounds like an awesome trip Doc. Have a blast!
You are taking the sell in May and go away thing quite literally it seems….. 🙂
DOC…Don’t know were you are going.
But it might be quicker if you go by donkey & boat.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-16/viral-video-shows-nightmare-tsa-line-stretching-miles
BTW…Have a great time, you deserve a break after all the time you spend giving all of us here at KER free advice.
Don’t forget to bring us all back a nice souvenir….I will settle for a pretty 22 year old brunet ( whose daddy owns a brewery ) & a kilo bar of the local gold, Thank You.
Irish, thanks.
Ah, the Virgin Islands: You guessed well Irish. As for me second choice is a crocodile belt!!
Have a great one Doc and thanks as always.
I wonder where the price of gold will be by December? Or 12 months from now? Will it have doubled or gone up by, what, another third from today’s price?
I know, I know – crystal ball predictions.
Interesting times ahead.
BOB…I will let you know tomorrow…after I have deboned my pet chicken.
Soup? 😉
My broker went off line this afternoon, still cant access it.
I wonder if it has anything to do with the anonymous attack.
Sure glad I didnt have to sell something in a hurry.
I called to ask about it but the elevator music got to be too much. lol
B- mine too.. you with TD also??
yup
one of the risks with investing, hope the accounts still there when it goes back online.
Im joking of course but it is entirely possible the whole thing gets deleted with no trace.
The banks could do it to every account they have and blame it on isis anonymous alquida etc The perfect crime.
That is a scary consideration b.
Its just one of the risks we take investing Ex.
People tend to forget that one.
Does anyone have a thought my Narcor Technology has been declining recently?
Also, best wishes to Doc; you will be missed, so please don’t stay away too long. God’s blessings to you and your entire family. God’s blessings!
. . .why Natcor Technology has been declining recently?
Interesting…
ICBC to be first Chinese lender to own London vault
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36309062
Birdman,
Update on gold and silver charts please, still shorting. thanks
Chartster,
Still see the pms going lower sometime later???
Bully Choe,
Look at the weekly chart on spot gold and silver and GDXJ and SILJ. And look at MACD,PPO,TSI and especially the ADX +DI -DI. There is absolutely no doubt, PMs and miners are going to get hit hard. It looks like late May or early June to get stared. This week looks slow.
Thank you man always.
Enjoy your time away Doc.
Cheers.
Dr Jeff Kern from Ski gold stocks ,is expecting an ugly correction,he thinks it will be difficult to sit trough.
Jordan roy byrne thinks that Jeff Kern is one of the better out there.
If this happens, i guess we will be hearing a lot from Mr Birdman.
Have a great trip Doc.
http://thedailygold.com/jeff-kerns-skigoldstocks-trading-system-is-saying/
Thanks for the link, Pete. Jeff is one of the best out there but his SKI system isn’t for everyone. I agree that there will be an ugly correction but, like Jeff, I am still extremely bullish and think we still have much more upside straight ahead.
Bird has already been dead wrong for a long time so he can’t take credit for calling a drop that might still be many weeks away. But I’m sure you’re right, we’ll be hearing a lot from him anyway. 😐
Btw, Jeff warned us in February that: “…this is a UNIQUE index pattern. Therefore, when you read analysts’ predictions based upon any bull markets since 1974, THIS ONE WILL BE DIFFERENT. It can simply go straight up in an extraordinary manner without a correction and then collapse.”
————
So he warned that the rise might end with a collapse AND to beware the numerous analysts who base their predictions on any of the bull markets since 1974 – which is almost all of them. It’s not hard to see why so many have been wrong.
Good Points,Matthew.
It would be too easy if analysts just could find an exact match,on a bull market from the past.
Just noticed Mat.
You saying Bird was wrong…is actually wrong.
Birds last call was for a $30 drop if I recall, yup, a few days early but it was a correct call.
He also figures on a correction(unless he changed) that people will not really enjoy, he is not alone with that one, but he was with the $30 drop and alot of calls beore that one.
Bird has been the best “drop caller” for gold Ive found bar none for years at about 90% accuracy. sry Mat. but thats the case. He is uncanny with those calls.
That is not to disparage your input.
You were absolutely correct when you were sying Bird was a bit too erly with that $30 drop call. (and it was a costly one to get out early on) but he still got it.
The problem is in the details, B. Bird was looking for much lower prices than what we’ve seen and has been confidently bearish AFTER drops like that $30 one. He has been smoked by DUST and did not expect it to come back to the level that it is at now.
In addition, he acts like was right and bulls like me were wrong when nothing could be further from the truth. I have countered him only because of his outright major bearishness. A $30 dollar move absolutely does not qualify and was not unexpected at all by any bull that knows charts or how markets move.
If he would call for ONLY a $30 drop and then turn bullish (or at least neutral) afterward, then such calls would have value. Again, he was clearly much more bearish and more than just a $30 drop.
Such calls can do far more harm than good in my opinion.
typo: “and EXPECTED more than just a $30 drop.”
Seems everybody on here is either thinking of a sideways trade or a correction in the metals, have you ever thought that they might have a nice move to the upside instead leaving a lot of people behind.
That’s why NOBODYKNOWS ANYTHING!!!
I am open minded, and open to all possible scenarios.
It would be nice to explode higher from here/soon.
A lot of people are allready left behind.
The miners behaved bullishly today. For example, GDX was unable to fill the morning gap despite gold reversing sharply from about 1290…
Nice,Matthew
GDX is at or “in” an area of Fibonacci fan resistance:
233 week EMA resistance is $1.10 above the current price.
So when this missile reaches the thinner air,it could really take off…?
Yes, especially above $30.
Hi Matthew. What’s the significance of the 233 week EMA, please?
It’s just the Fibonacci version of the 200. I look at both sets of MAs and have found both useful. I also look at both simple and exponential MAs.
After a long bear market, the 233 sets the bar a little higher for the bulls than does the 200.
On the linked chart below, you can see that the miners were in a similar position in February, 2002. You can also see that once price cleared the 233, it wasn’t violated again until 2008 while the more widely followed 200 was broken in May, 2005.
For comparison, here’s the same chart with the 233 simple MA along with the 233 EMA:
Looking at gold, we can see that the EMA has provided relevant resistance during the last several years, not the SMA:
Matthew,
Agreed on some of the fib levels and other targets for EMAs like 34, 89, 144, 233, etc…
Michael Ballanger said in the article below: A lot of people are not only late to the party,but they haven´t even called a cab yet.
https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/na/16972
These videos on Palisade Radio covers this subject.
The big asset firms and pension funds show no interest in the pm space.
And also they say in the videos that the general public are not invested in the pm space,and will not be for quite some time.
http://palisaderadio.com/matt-zabloski-fund-manager-on-asset-based-investing-in-the-mining-sector/
Listen up, you dumb-asses. Any damn fool can see the S&P is making a megaphone top. Next month is gonna be interesting my fat ass. It’s gonna drop faster than Jennifer Lawrence at an awards gig to the 200 DMA around $1825. Now I told ya don’t make me keep telling ya.
In polite English for UK readers. I know it’s a bit of a long shot but I can’t help thinking the S&P could be making a megaphone top. If it IS then the 200 DMA could be in about the right place to make a decent target. Thanks for reading this. Sorry to have taken up your time.
FUNNY……….
The S&P Fappening.
Isn’t the 200 DMA around 2012?
Hi Bob. You are right, of course. It’s the 200 week MA I meant not the DMA. It’s the weekly SPX chart I was looking at. Not at all sure if the 200 line has significance but 1800 to 1825 seems to be about the right place if it IS a megaphone top.
Bob – changing the subject. Have you thoughts on the referendum? My heart is for Brexit because I think it’s right to take control of our own destiny and maybe doing something a little bit brave won’t be a bad thing. It seems to me that the Remain camp has probably won the economic argument and there will be a financial hit. But more and more it seems that the security of our borders and streets is a crucial issue. A no visa deal with Turkey is crazy. The EU seems to be running on nothing but optimism and ideals and no common sense or pragmatism. It might be good to be part of it if it were capable of changing but it’s hard to think that it ever can. What do you think?
I’m for Brexit as I don’t want St. Paul’s to be a mosque by the end of the century.
I think it is our last chance to save the UK. If we do not vote out now then the UK will be swamped with millions of people from elsewhere and, which I think is the EU’s plan, the British nation and the British people will cease to exist. The EU hates us being a thorn in their side.
I am a lifelong Liberal – tolerant and non-racist – but I am also am seriously concerned by the massive amount of muslim migration into the UK and how large parts of London, and our other towns and cities, are becoming muslim ghettos.
I find it abhorrent that a religion that hates anyone who is not a muslim and which does not believe in equal rights for women, and which murders gay people, is allowed in any democracy let alone in the UK. It should be thrown out as it is a stone age mentality.
Sadly, I fear that people will believe the fear campaign and will vote to stay in.
I was at a party on Saturday night amongst intelligent people – solicitors, journalists – and every single one was voting to stay in the EU. They were quoting all the guff that Newsnight has been saying and I was shocked and saddened to hear their stupidity.
Nice. Like it.
Thanks,for the clues Matthew.
Avino G&S – Caution – 1st Qtr results -Only Jan-Feb production was counted in the quarter, March production was deferred to April, a one time accounting change. In actuality , a very good report, taking the deferral into consideration.
Conf call @ 8am today, the 17th.
Bought more 2000 ASM @ $1.54
Nice Marty! Avino is such a great little company, becoming a much larger player over the next few years once they get the new tailings facility built, and get Bralorne mine up and running.
PS. – I just noticed your post on Golden Arrow from the weekend show today and did respond about their JV with Silver Standard.
Cheers!
For clarification, my point about the new tailings facility, is that once it gets permitted and built in late 2016/early 2017, then they are going to mine the resources out of the old tailings material and have sunk a few holes down in it already and found it to be rich in metals to recover.
Roxgolds first gold-pour ahead of Schedule.
I’m a big fan of Roxgold’s progress Pete and I had seen that press release as well.
Have you ever looked into Avnel Gold or Orezone?
I can’t remember – are you a shareholder in Perseus mining or Endeavor Mining?
Excelsior,
I am a shareholder of Roxgold and Perseus, i like Endeavour,Orezone,but i am currently not a shareholder.Don´t own Avnel.
There are so many deposits/miners that i like,i researched all the deposits that were listed on the 2012,2013 VC list and GS data and som other sources and ended up with ca 80 gold/silver companies that i liked.
I currently hold about 20 companies,no surprises on that list i think.
I think if people research all the companies from VC and GS and read all aviable information(I know you did Excelsior)they end up with pretty much the same companies
I resently bought more Kootenay,i saw you mentioned it a while ago,did you buy it?
From Theaureport
TGR: What is your favorite silver junior?
RM: Kootenay Silver Inc. (KTN:TSX.V). Kootenay has two projects in Sonora, Mexico: Promontorio and La Negra. They are contained in a 25 kilometer (25km) by 15km mineralized corridor known as the Promontorio mineral belt. The Promontorio deposit itself is an absolute monster: 92 million ounces (92 Moz) of silver equivalent Measured and Indicated and another 24 Moz Inferred at 70 grams/ton (70 g/t).
Kootenay doesn’t quite yet understand the Promontorio structure, so it is engaged in a very detailed mapping and sampling program to find the high-grade areas. But this problem is not unusual with such structures. Consider AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.’s (AU:NYSE; ANG:JSE; AGG:ASX; AGD:LSE) Cripple Creek gold mine in Colorado. Like Promontorio, it is a diatreme. Cripple Creek was mined for decades before it found a 100 meter (100m) pipe that contained 8 Moz gold. Promontorio is basically a 1.5km long mineralized area, so it requires a comprehensive program to delineate high-grade targets.
TGR: Given how big Promontorio is, why is Kootenay concentrating on La Negra?
RM: This is the reality of running a junior. You need to get the best bang for your buck. For Kootenay, that means La Negra. It’s 6km from Promontorio, and it’s an exciting, new, pure silver discovery. Last year, Kootenay drilled 3,100m in 25 HQ diameter core holes at La Negra. It was hugely successful—a series of outstanding, high-grade drill intercepts from surface, including:
LN 21-14 Containing from surface and bottomed in mineralization:
156.47 g/t Ag over 200m including
420.34 g/t Ag over 50m from 150 to 200m including
1,337.66 g/t Ag over 6m and
492.30 g/t Ag over 17m at the bottom of the hole excluding the 6m of 1,337 g/t Ag interval
I made a back-of-the-napkin calculation that La Negra phase 1 drilling revealed 20 Moz of pure silver—a conservative estimate on my part. The company is now drilling a phase 2, 30 hole, 3,000m program.
TGR: Kootenay announced initial phase 2 assays March 31. How good are they?
RM: They position La Negra as one of the richest, near-surface, pure silver plays in northwest Mexico in the past decade. The latest results, in my opinion, give an established silver producer(s) the opportunity to fast track into production a low-cost, 4–5 Moz/year mine.
Even if no one comes knocking, Kootenay has the team to advance the project itself. CEO Jim McDonald’s track record includes Alamos Gold Inc.’s (AGI:TSX) Mulatos mine, and director Dick Whittington’s track record includes Farallon Mining Ltd.’s (FAN:TSX) G-9 mine.
TGR: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) owns 10% of Kootenay. Would it be interested in a takeover?
RM: I would think so. There are not many pure silver mines with around 4–5 Moz/year of pure silver production over 8 to 10 years. That is very special.
Hi Pete, great response, that yes, most people that filter down the thousand mining companies will come down to about the same 80 names, and then filtered down further 2-3 dozen names. However, many of those names have already started launching up all of 2016 thus far, and it leaves certain companies that haven’t participated as much in an interesting situation where they are still very undervalued. I guess the whole sector is still very undervalued, and the great companies will continue to do very well as the bull market gets going, but I’m always looking for companies that may have some upside surprise in the short to near term.
As for Kootenay, I’ve been watching it closely the last 2 years, and I like their acquisition of Northair Silver. I think Agnico Eagle is likely to take them out at one point, but there could be another Gold or Silver Major or Mid-tier that may swoop in and pick them up and just have Agnico as a 10% partner.
Kootenay, Excellon, Bear Creek, Bayhorse, Golden Arrow, Defiance, Canasil & Orex, and Mirasol are the speculative Silver exploration and development stories I’m interested in picking up that I don’t already own.
I like this:
The Yaramoko mine was built on budget, ahead of schedule and is one of the highest grade gold mines in the world. As at March 31, 2016 Roxgold maintained a healthy balance sheet with cash of approximately US$42 million and debt of approximately US$59 million. The Company expects to ramp up to commercial production in the third quarter of 2016.
And to all of you big mining companies,leave Roxgold alone.
exactly
COMAX…………..
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1463418957.php