Targets for the S&P, gold, GDX, and Oil
Rick Ackerman shares his targets for a number of markets. We get Rick to look a few months out to give everyone a better idea for the trading ranges and trends we could see.
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Gold Stock Pullback Is Imminent – Don’t Get Shaken Out
May 20, 2016 4:00 PM ET
I posted this article because I like the chart on it showing we have been due for a pullback if you compare the recent run up with other beginning starts to the first year of other bull markets (if that is what we are in). I trimmed substantially in April and early May, so I plan on adding as things pull back, and have already started to nibble into weakness a little bit this week in a few stocks that are starting to sell off.
A preferred outcome would be about a 15-20% correction and then the next leg up starting in late July to early August. However if Gold surprises us this summer with a breakout or a break down, I’ll also embrace both those scenarios, as I’m only partially invested at present.
Good luck to all in their investing and hoping everyone has a good end to their week.
The only thing about those analogs in that article is that they all look the same after awhile. Like Chris says its a bit like reading a Rorschach test. The other quibble I have with that piece is the author just assumes we are in a new bull market. On that score I absolutely cannot agree.
We remain within a bear market in both precious metals and mining stock. So nothing has altered my outlook and I continue to believe we will retest the lows at a very minimum.
Yes, those are valid objections to the charts and data used. I agree that there is not definitive evidence yet that we are in a new bull until Gold closes above $1307.80 and in particular $1321.50 (the 2013 spike down low, on massive volume, that started the whole sideways to down consolidation for the last 3 years).
This is why I included the caveat (If that is what we are in):
“compare the recent run up with other beginning starts to the first year of other bull markets (if that is what we are in).”
I also mentioned I trimmed substantially in April and May in the miners anticipating a pullback into late Spring and Summer. However, I still could see the case where this is only a minor pullback of 15-20%, which is what I would prefer to see actually, and would be buying like crazy anywhere under a 10% move down. After a 15-20% correction, this move would be proceeded by a leg higher that would likely take out those upside resistance targets and maybe the $1346.80 level as well. To me this would be the ideal situation, but we’ll have to see how it goes.
In contrast, if we have a huge break to the downside that breaks through the old lows and hits new lows, then I’ll be surprised but not stunned. If that does happen, I can only imagine that occurring in an extremely strong US dollar situation (and terrible Yen/Loonie environment) with many more rate hikes and the destruction of the commoditie currencies and nations like Canada, Australia, and Brazil. That just doesn’t seem likely to be Birdman, and there has been quite a bit of strife and destruction already in these economies. I would not rule it out, of course, because there is a path forward where that could surely happen, but I don’t put high odds on that playing out.
Lastly, in a 3rd scenario where Gold & Silver just kept rocketing higher over the next few months, taking out $1307.80, $1321.50, and $1346.80, then I’ll be happy I was partially invested, and will still do OK, and tip my hat to those that are fully invested at present. For me, to mitigate the risks, I am only about 30% invested, but will be adding the more the PMs drop. It will be interesting to see how things play out for the rest of May, June, and July. Regardless by late late July to early August, I anticipate having a much larger allocation to the miners.
Gold has already seen a 20% correction of the move off the bottom Shad.
I meant a further 15-20% correction from where we are now in the miners, not in gold.
Sorry I had thoughts on gold, then discussed the miners in the 2nd paragraph where I discussed the miners, but then went back and mentioned Gold targets back into the picture, when discussing a new new run in the miners……so that was a little jumbled up.
Just look at the copper chart for a hint. The purists in the room will argue day and night we cannot use copper to gauge the fortunes of gold. Really……and why not? Copper peaked in the second month of 2011. Silver about 45 days later and Gold peaked a few months after that.
The commodities supercycle ended that year for the lot and all declined together afterwards.
But my point is copper led the way.And if you would take a look at copper now it is again in front of the pack after having posted a very nice double top. Furthermore, it looks very much like it will go back and test its January lows.
And where copper goes the precious metals tend to follow. We cannot therefore ignore that chart no matter who is buying into GLD or Barrick and no matter which well known bank is pumped up on precious metals all of a sudden.
Call me a big old doubter but I just don’t believe any of it for one second. We have a global deflation in progress. It is very unlikely that China can mount another trillion dollar credit expansion especially after this most recent case yielded such a poor result.
So that means just one simple thing…..that net demand for resources is going to sink under the weight of a demand shortfall again. And that means metals will all fall back down.
I know I have said it a 100 times already but there is ZERO doubt in my mind that this current bounce in gold and silver is nothing more than an enticing bear market rally and it will not be sustained. It is a big fat bear-trap being set for the gold bugs one more time.
God bless them but if they don’t take profits they will lose it all once more.
Bird:
When I am totally convinced I am absolutely dead right on something, I get it a 99% chance. Nothing in life is 100% except death and taxes. Some doubt on anything is always good.
We have seen the bottom in commodities, all of them, including gold.
Are you sure Bob?
I mean 100% sure? 😉
Using the GDX ETF price as a benchmark, the GDX has more room to travel upwards and will take out all prior peaks, as there remains a huge spread between gold mining share prices and gold prices. Looking for the inverse correlation with the gold/silver ratio to reach an extreme, much like the S&P TSX Global Gold Index. The GDX has less history over the course of the gold bull market, though I think it can be used the same way as the benchmark index.
The interesting technical detail here in 2011 and at the end of 2015 the price extremes were not entirely acknowledged by the inverse correlation with the gold/silver ratio, even though this inverse correlation has been very reliable. Using smaller numbers than (20) in the inverse correlation will render steeper inverse correlation, but the extreme price high and price low have the same effect.
You want to see corruption look at silver prices for the last 40 years or so.
http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
Total manipulation and massive corruption. Anyone that can tell me that everything is manipulated like this or for better words mutilated like precious metals market has the discernment of an rotten coconut husk. Not going to mention any names but they too have overlooked the true facts in favor of these criminals running the show.
TIME TO WISE UP.
TJ:
Funny but a chart of sugar looks the same. Must be totally manipulated and massive corruption.
If you believe someone has manipulated silver for 40 years, it means you don’t believe in supply and demand. Good luck with that. It will make for some interesting investing.
Mr. Moriarty, first off- gold and silver is money. It was constitutionalized and won’t waste time elaborating on the specifics since it would be just repeating what we both already know. Secondly, sugar is a commodity. Sugar is not in the same league. You want to recklessly classify gold and silver as a commodity is just favoring the criminality taking place. Even sugar by the way was able to hold some good gains over a longer stretch than silver. The most volatile commodity of all and you chose sugar.
Every rally in silver was driven right back into the ground. They wasted no time doing it either. Silver is still money. It worked for thousands of years until the criminals came into play. High capital gains tax as well investing in physical precious metals.
Whats that tell you !!!
Now, pull up a chart of the DJIA. What do you see. A market that has been promoted by the establishment and manipulated massively…massively higher. Apply this to the darling investments the criminals promote to use their banking cartel to profit their own agenda. Usury come to mind. Equities and real estate being leveraged. Back in the 60’s and prior, people paid cash for their residences.
Anyone who didn’t want to take risks and save in currency including gold and silver has been a victim of these criminals for over 80 years since Roosevelt took us off the gold standard.
Bob, we had no inflation for decades prior. Food was stable for a hundred years give or take. No inflation !!!!!!! NADA !
The system is rigged against the average person. The middle class is almost nonexistent. The only thing people have is their job and debt. Very little assets. Homeownership at a all time low.
All America is made up of is credit, monthly payments they can barely afford and catastrophic debt.
IF, IS A BIG WORD. BUT IF, PEOPLE WERE ABLE TO SAVE BEFORE ALL THESE CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES BEGAN, WE WOULD HAVE A NATION WITH NONE OF THE MATTERS WE ARE FACING TODAY. “A PERILOUS FUTURE “. Comprendo !!!
I stand correct. Precious metals have been mutilated and the darling investments in favor of usury have prospered.
OR BOB, YOU.CAN BELIEVE YOUR LYING EYES. If that’s what have chosen to do, we have nothing more to discuss.
Also, if your not willing to support a honest financial system, who is. 321 go for it. Who’s side are you on Bob. ???
We are sitting right on the edge of a cliff and time is up. War and financial catastrophe are being unleashed.
In the meanwhile, people are renting out their SUV’s to sleep in only, in the big cities from $300 to $700 a month.
Nice eh, thanks to those that go along with the criminal activities. What about your grand children sharing the women’s restroom with perverts. Or visa versa. This sh%t is going to cease and desist even if it has to all burn.
Dresden Germany come to mind. They were warned and thought they were safe and it happened. And it was over.
Many might be selling their BS, but I’m not buying. This is the final word on how everyone blabbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oiQhhdz8ys
The politicians are guilty of treason and butchery with unnecessary war in bloodshed.
HANG EM…HIGH !!! ..good-bye !
Mr. Moriarty, this is an addendum to the commentary above as time was of the essence for other activities today.
Did you make a fatal oversight in your claims and forget the banks openly admit to distorting the precious metals markets through illegal trading and capping the prices.
Have you also overlooked the fact Central Banks own gold not because they like the investment but to control the price. They have the means to add credibility to the market place because they do own gold and lease, sell paper contracts till the cows come home.
Just to name a few of all the criminal behavior that precious metals have to endure.
Then you have people who are being preached to by the promoters and to invest in precious metals markets. Only to find out many years later they have nothing to show and only a small fraction of any appreciation due to spreads buying and selling. That’s if they allow it to appreciate at all. Majority of the time it goes in the opposite direction.
Timing is everything in precious metals especially in mining shares. The reason is you have criminals playing with it all day long and dramatic moves up and down over a few
years. Its unstable and dangerous because you have to get out before the big hammers drop.
ALL BECAUSE OF CRIMINAL ILLEGAL TRADING AND ACTIVITY BY THE VERMIN SCUM !!!
They admit it. And the suckers keep trying their luck in PM’s only to lose most of their hard earned cash while the promoters always make money.
Anyway, you might convince others precious metals are treated the same as most of the sectors in the market place but I totally disagree.
IT’S MASSIVELY MANIPULATED AND ILLEGAL CRIMINAL TRADING ACTIVITY RULES THE DAY.
Tick tock , times up. CHECKMATE !!!
The debate is closed. M.I.A.
TRADER JAKE:
Please enlighten me … who are the “criminals running the show”? Please do not say “THE ROTHSCHILDS” or “THE ROCKEFELLERS” or “THE BILDERBERGERS” or, or, or …
Bert and Ernie.
Ha! 🙂
Excellent Bentnail,
I’ve been waiting for someone to come along who has a full grasp of the Matrix construct and all of its moving parts.
Can you break it down for us mere heathens who are uneducated and uninformed.
Thanks.
Excelsior,
Why the anger? Did I call you a stupid heathen? No. I simply said that the NWO story that is being forced down the throats of millions of people by so-called patriots is not as it seems in my opinion. No need to get hostile.
Make that VORTEX, not EXCELSIOR
They will let you know when its “Show Time” because the stage is being set. Doesn’t matter what I say Bentnail, so I suggest you do your own research because your mind is already made up. Unfortunately, the majority have been desensitized over decades and will refuse the truth even when all the evidence/proof is right there under their nose.
We live in a world where the truth is a rare commodity and everyone would rather believe the lies to feel more comfortable/happy. Unwilling to face reality. Thats why so many Americans take drugs for depression. They drink etc. to un-face reality in life.
Life will always have its hardships and difficulties. The enemy will always be there to cause major pain in our lives. Ignoring them through careless means will only bring destruction. Thats what we are facing today.
TRADER JAKE,
TRADER JAKE,
Trust me, I have done my research. In fact, I had the same mindset as you nearly ten years ago. No one would have ever convinced me that central bankers and corporate overlords didn’t run the world and that they were not trying to establish their NWO to enslave mankind.
That was ten years ago – my knowledge has grown a thousand-fold since then. I now know that what I once believed is a massive SET UP that millions like me AND you have fallen prey to. There is a far more to the picture than meets the eye.
Bentnail – Who are the parties behind the “massive set up” in your research, that millions have fallen prey to? What is their motivation in your opinion?
I’m interested in any links or research you may have that highlights what you were describing about “far more to the picture than meets the eye”. Sounds interesting.
I’m interested in your viewpoint as well, Bentnail.
Of course I agree with you Al. Rick is the best technical guy we know. Sorry if I was sounding critical the other day. Just having my own bad day. It happens sometimes……
Bentnail, as long as your comfortable with what you believe. We may have a difference of opinion and we can all learn by sharing information. Thats how we learn and to be humble about it. Not pushing any one matter down anyone’s throat.
With that being said and on that note, lets all share what we know and hopefully we can all benefit by the shared information.
Usually, I will only post what information I would like to share. If someone does the same and even if I don’t agree I will just be respectful and by pass the commentary.
Unless, they are being persistent and insisting their view be accepted by many fellow posters with multiple commentary posts making demands. I tend to mind my own business and try my best to avoid unnecessary conflict.
Its really a waste of time and unproductive nonsense.
Bottom line, Rick
Where do you want to be leveraged long gold and silver?
I am looking to long for the next 3-6 months minimum, with wide, wide stops.
Looks like a drop to 175-190 HUI is possible over next 7 trading days.
Smart people watching the HUI=200 breakdown for larger downward correction.