While implausible don’t completely dismiss another run in the markets
I know the titles of this segment might have some people scratching their heads but as Rick says it seems implausible but not out of the question. In the face of an implosion of US corporate earnings, China moving into a recession or worse and an implosion in the Chinese real estate bubble there is the possibility the charts will turn and the markets could run. Of course this is not a great probability right now.
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I hear the same thing in Vacouver Bobby, Chinese pay casH.
Crazy-b. not only Vancouver.. the island.. the valley and eastward to Hope.
Cant say I blame them for buying there, its beutiful.
Just wondering, how much of a crash can happen when they pay cash?
Rental propertes will continue to produce, I guess if people end up unemployed but there seems to be lots of work in B.C., my sister in Prince George is saying property there isnt really increasing but when they go up for sale it doesnt take long to be sold.
It’s not that they pay in cash that is the problem guys. What we are worried about now is that the buying itself is coming to an end as capital controls in China start to finally bite. Keep in mind that the only thing keeping that gasbag of a bubble in Vancouver inflated is the constant bidding from Asian buyers.
Take that away and the hissing begins as the bubble starts to sag and deflate.
They are laundering their money, and getting it out of China, via ramping up property prices around the world.
That is my point, if there is no leverage, there can be no bubble to burst, imo.
Not quite correct Bobby. There is tremendous leverage for most homes purchased by Canadians where as little as 5% down was needed not long ago. So the Chinese can indeed inflate a bubble in Vancouver by bidding high with all-cash deals but that hardly insures the majority of the population from a bubble burst.
Just look at that chart I posted in my comments below.
It is a classic parabola in its terminal phase where price is going vertical but the time element has stood still. That will pop within the next six months tops. No joke….no chart that looks like that has EVER survived by trading sideways.
So Vancouver is doomed and its going to be even worse for all the surrounding BC cities (Victoria, Nanaimo, the Kootenays, Kamloops, Kelowna…) where the spillover effects will actually be magnified if history is any guide.
The problem for the rest of BC of course is that it is the high prices in Vancouver that is creating the demand outside of Vancouver. Call it the move-down money that vacates an expensive area with plenty of cash in hand and buys less costly property in another region.
This is a disaster for the province. But nobody would ever listen.
By the way….yes the Chinese are levered up. Fourty percent down is typical there now but that’s not the real problem. Consider for a second that the purchase might be 50% to 75% overvalued to begin with and then ponder how many will be underwater in a bust. It won’t be pretty I tells ya. Even for those that don’t go negative there is still the aspect of the wealth effect that evaporates. And how robust will the property market be once house prices fall until they are equal to your down payment and the appreciated gain is all gone? Kind of hard to finance the next one then. That’s how a Ponzi dies.
That last comment referred to China’s property market, not Vancouver btw.
Rick, if memory serves me right, you’ve had gold “support” numbers at 1258, then 1251. Today, the trend line is showing 1230. Since the 1251 pivot has been broken is this now resistance and does 1230 become the critical number to watch.
From $1050 to $1300, do we get a retrace of 50%-70%?
So, $1175?-$1125?
$1251.0 was a target (d) not a pivot. By Rick’s runes breaking a target is a sign of weakness. Today price moved higher $1.5 above the pivot of $1242.0 in the GCM6 contract using a 4 hr chart a = 1283.9, pvt = 1242.0, pvt (2) = 1232.2, target = $1221.9// for GCQ6 that target would be $1225.2
And if you use a smaller time frame chart pattern…..1hr……a = 1262.3, the target was hit to precision of $1243.5
Thanks mj12. I still don’t quite understand how to do the math to calculate the mid-term pivots. How do you actually calculate pvt 1 and pvt 2 based on the A target of $1283.90, to arrive at those pivot points and the lower target?
AB = CD. AB is the impulse leg. The pivot is 1/2 the CD leg. Using the above hrly chart of A = 1262.3 (last Thursday high) B = 1244. 6 // C = 1261.2 (last Friday’s high) D = 1243.5 the target to the dime! The pivot was 1252.35……the hrly price bars gave us the clue that if decidedly broken the target would be hit.
AB = $17.7……CD = $17.7 (1261.2 – 17.7 = 1243.5 target……1/2 distance = 1252.35 pivot)
Rick always pontificated his method was more art than TA. Finding symmetry in chaos was the “excelsior”.
The above is just a crude example…….but I’ve never found a system that could hit with such precision.
Price is close to “activating” a GCM6 weekly pattern that has a pivot of $1175.1 ……that will need to be adjusted for GCQ6 after option expiration this week.
Great mj12 !! I really appreciate the formula and how the mid-point pivots and targets are arrived at. Yes, Rick is often within pennies of a target or pivot point, and is incredibly accurate.
Got to have Rick in the morning.
Here in Thailand I rent a condo which casts me less than $400 a month.
In Miami it would go for $3000.00 a month easy. %80 UNOCCUPIED!
The Russians and Asian buyers never really showed up. British have left the market as well. The carry trade is alive and well. When she blow who knows…..
A condo for $400 a month…..wow! If my financial plans unravel, then I may have to retire in Thailand and live like a champ.
I’ve wanted to visit Thailand in the next year or so, but have seen reports on the violence, robberies, passport Identity theft, and gang issues. In your experience living there with boots on the ground what is your assessment. I’m sure the media has blown things out of proportion as per usual, but just thought I’d ask for your feedback.
If its anything like where I live Excelsior its ALWAYS blown out of proportion. I was in Egypt during the Arab Spring and honestly never worried about my safety. Most of the trouble was confined to just a few locations. You would not even have known anything big was going on if you didn’t have a TV to watch it.
Yes, I also knew people on an extended tour during the Arab Spring, and they said the news was hyping activity along a few blocks, but that the rest of Egypt was fine and just business as usual. I had the same experience when I was in Chicago during the G8 summit riots, but the rest of the city and the rest of the time it was totally peaceful and I never feared for my safety.
I’m sure the same is true for Thailand, but it never hurts to ask someone there on location for the inside skinny….
I have lived for over four years directly on the Oceanfront in a small city in Thailand. It is a military town and the capital of the province. Like all Thai locales, there is lots and lots of violence. They keep it out of the news, so that the tourists don’t catch on, but if you look at the escalation in White people getting killed, and the infinite scams…….I doubt that you would want to vacation in Thailand.
Our small city is “quiet” by Thai standards. There was a gun fight in front of our house three nights ago…..several people involved…..gang thing. One of the injured was taken immediately to the hospital….only a few blocks away. Some of the guys involved went straight over to the hospital to meet him when he got there and shot him again at the hospital.
My wife found a bullet (ricochet of some sort) at our front gate in the morning.
This gun play and other deadly violence is just a part of every day life everywhere in Thailand…..but they don’t like the foreigners to know about it, so they keep it out of the news. That, and it’s so common, that it’s really not worth making a big deal of.
The only place in Asia that is more violent than Thailand is the Philippines. Chris….I follow your posts about the natives being decent…..and you seem to be living in a cloud.
Yes, the cost of living is very cheap…..but me thinks it’s about time to pull up the pegs…….
That sounds terrible Lookingin. Why would you want to live in a place like that if its so dangerous? I haven’t been there but your post surprised me because I have never heard it was that bad. You guys need to seriously consider Africa for a change of destinations and a much friendlier atmosphere.
actually I have been looking at Thailand, Cambodia & Vietnam myself & would appreciate any feed back! thx dwj
Anyway Excelsior…..if you want a REALLY good deal you might try one of these African countries instead. Not just for the warm weather and beautiful women either. But a whole house with gated compound can be had cheaper than Chris condo and it will include the price of a full time housekeeper.
I’m going to keep that idea in my back pocket Birdman. What country are you actually in?
East Africa is about as much as I will offer Shad. Most of these countries have some things in common though (besides being very poor by Western standards). Many are predominantly Christian and all are conservative. The cultures are very polite and non violent as a rule. I have mentioned this before but its worth repeating….there is no guns, no drugs and no pornography wherever you travel. Not that it does not exist because of course all are present. Its just not in your face, on the streets or being pushed like back home. You never see dope dealers for example. Very few people smoke. Hard drinkers are shunned. Girly magazines in shops would probably start local riots if they were introduced and nobody peddles guns except on the black market which is only a place you would go if you like the idea of hard time in prison. They are not perfect places either. Shortages of everything imaginable are common day occurrences. Medical services very substandard. Car accidents are usually epic and language can be a huge barrier because there are so many of them out in the sticks that you have likely never even heard of. But life is pretty good otherwise if you are a foreigner and for the most part Westerners are respected for their knowledge and skills. There is a huge demand for teachers naturally especially in mechanical and trades but if you came you would probably be volunteering so you would have to be self sufficient. I highly recommend it. Certainly for the aspects of personal safety and peace of mind. I don’t sleep with one eye open if you know what I mean and quite honestly these are the best places I have ever lived.
Ex,
All of the ridiculous horror stories of overseas living that is promoted and regurgitated by everyone around you in a USA centrist mindset are coming mostly from people that have never been anywhere in their life or ever gotten off their ass to venture out into the world.
For all of Asia’s general problems, in this example, those issues exist everywhere to differing degrees. Asia is one of life’s greatest opportunities in the modern era. Also to be honest, I am clearly biased as I fell in love with this part of the world decades ago.
It makes little difference where the countries reside on the wealth scales. The blessings and quality of life I have received from living around the world are incalculable.
The nonsense that is planted and fostered about many developing countries are stories coming from a contingent group of completely ignorant and uninformed no-nothings that seldom even leave their respective states/homes, much less their own country.
I could write about this subject for hours with untold examples of all of the benefits of an Ex-Pat life-style. I’ve long considered the USA and most legacy western nations certifiable hell-holes that don’t even register on my scale of real livability.
In my little third-world sh*t-hole the words safety, private property rights, freedom, liberty, economic benefits, and overall happiness are not just words…………..they are real and actionable lifestyle achievements.
V
Great post Vortex. I can sure relate to those words.
Bird I know we both could write for days about our experiences in Asia and Africa. But unfortunately we would probably put everyone to sleep for lack of interest.
At the end of the day its all about life’s choices. I’m glad I exercised mine while I could. 😉
V
I sure don’t miss the stress from back home, Vortex. It was right off the charts which is partly why I left. The funny thing is I never knew how bad it really was until I moved and could see my life from the outside looking back. All of North America looks like a zoo to me now. None of what happens there is normal by comparison. Like a daily competition of wild animals that call themselves civilized while they look arrogantly and disdainfully down on the poorer parts of the world. But their inhumanity is so egregious and over the top it almost makes no sense as a distant observer. You might have felt a similar way.
Yes Bird, I agree 100%!
Really good thoughts guys. Thanks Vortex & Birdman for confirming something I already knew, and I am not sure why I asked Chris about the safety of Thailand, because we know about a dozen people that have traveled to Thailand, Cambodia, and S. Korea and loved it, the people, architecture, the culture, and the food.
I’ve really only been to Canada, Mexico,and the Bahamas so my world traveling has been rather limited, but my sister is pals with folks in Germany, and has traveled all throughout Europe without incident. We have friends in Argentina, China, and Turkey and they all laugh at the way their countries are portrayed in the media.
It is funny because when we were in Mexico and the Bahamas, we broke away from our tour and hotel a few times and hung out with many of the locals and had an absolute blast and much different experience than our American counterparts that stayed holed up in their fancy hotels. Everyone was worried that we got kidnapped, but we were out dancing in street festivals, riding with new friends visiting local watering holes, eating authentic prepared food well away from the tourism zone, and felt more “alive.”. We always try to get away from the tourist traps when traveling and get a genuine slice of life in whatever city we find ourselves.
A Harvard MBA Guy Is Out to Bring Down the Clintons
Remember Harry Markopolos? That’s the tenacious financial expert that pounded on the door of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for years, providing it with detailed, written evidentiary support for the premise that Bernie Madoff, the respected former Chairman of the NASDAQ stock market, was running a massive Ponzi scheme. The SEC never confirmed the fraud before Madoff confessed as he ran out of money in December 2008 because it skipped the most basic of investigation techniques: it failed to verify if real stocks and bonds actually existed in Madoff’s client portfolios. They didn’t.
There’s a new Markopolos in town with that same brand of leave-no-stone-unturned…
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/05/a-harvard-mba-guy-is-out-to-bring-down-the-clintons/
Just a $100 billion?
Even in politics it’s rare to run into true evil.
Proof that Hillary Clinton is a psychopathic liar
http://investmentwatchblog.com/proof-that-hillary-clinton-is-a-psychopathic-liar/
ummm, that would be MORE proof Bob.
I heard what I thought was a reason she doesnt get charged, she has info on too many people, if she goes down lots do. Thus the reluctance to charge her with anything.
Sounded logical to me.
Maybe its just the psychopaths are plain too entrenched.
At one time I thought JFK was a coup, now I think he was an example.
By the time Eisenhower warned us, it was already too late.
B: I heard the same thing about her not getting charged. If she is not charged for what was obviously criminal behavior, it’s all over for the Republic. That will be an admission that the US is run by a gang of criminals.
I don’t have a dog in the race, I view American politics as one snake, two heads and certainly Trump says some goofy things but Hillary is a lying criminal and war monger owned by a foreign power.
Trump is going to make mincemeat out of both Hillary and Bill and they have it coming.
I can only hope your right Bob.
But really, would 8 years of Trump make much dif?
The people that run the place can just wait him out.
When Bill declared ‘I did not have sex with that woman’ – (re Lewinsky( maybe he was speaking the truth about his ‘wife’! After all didn’t Bill also say of Hillary that ‘she’s had more women than I have’!
BINGO Rick……
That’s just what i have been saying. The China induced hot-money-bubble is bursting across the globe as we speak. Its happening in London, Sydney, Hong Kong and San Fransisco to name just a few of the locations.
And it has just about arrived in Vancouver and Toronto judging by the ominous and troubled look of the chart (linked). I wrote a post on this the other day you will probably find fascinating since we have made the same observations (I will repost it below because I think it is a must-read on this subject).
The thing is Rick, what this all tells me is that we ARE going to get a hell of a deflation in debt and in certain key assets like housing and the high end art market. And of course if the China bubble itself breaks then that should also be warning about a global deflation impulse in raw materials, manufactured goods and commodities.
Not many here want to here this but it is my belief this is all linked to how gold itself will respond in the coming year. I continue to assert that precious metals are not in a new bull market and that is naturally related to the fact that resources are going to take another hit on very bad news from China.
There is no way in hell the Canadian dollar chart has hit bottom either and subscribing to that idea there is the obvious implication oil will be going down hard in the coming months. I cannot rule out 20 dollar barrels and in fact there is pretty good support down there.
If oil and CAD are going down along with much of the commodity sector then we will see a global deflation that pushes USD back up and this is all the more threatening a case as the Fed looks determined to raise rates two more times this year.
Here is my Vancouver Bubble post of May 19, 2016 – Check out that Vancouver chart. She is a doozie now.
——————————————————————————-
Funny stuff DT. They will make a movie about it one day.
“How the Fed Broke Canada”. (coming to a theater near you soon).
A gripper of good yarn too, I am quite sure. But the truth is that even heavy breathing in China could take that edifice of Canuckian Bubble-mania down like a ton of heavy bricks in an empty elevator shaft.
The Canadian housing bubble oddly enough is not even Canadian. That’s the really funny part of the movie. Because its all made in China and as such is a beautiful proxy on the Chinese economy.
And like all good proxies it offers you hints about what will happen in the Asian Empire next. Because hot destinations like Vancouver are more akin to a thermometer on foreign capital inflows than they are a judgement on tastes in the quality of life that Vancouverites pride themselves on.
A quick reading of the chart on single family homes in the city tells you all you need to know. It has gone vertical. It is the ultimate perfect parabola. And it will burst because like all similar charts the motion of its X and Y axis now boils down to a single direction that cannot be sustained.
That is to say that when we look at Vancouver’s incredible SFH chart we notice the ominous danger sign that is always apparent on a price/time chart that has gone vertical.
Time has stood still.
It is only price that is moving now and as you will readily notice that movement is not sideways. And so the only outcome available in such a case is a high magnitude drop to form what will eventually become the right hand side of collapsed peak on the price model.
But what will end the vertical rise?
Oh, just the usual of course. The city will run out of buyers. The mood will suddenly sour perhaps. Public policy will end the capital inflows or interest rates might intervene to put a chill on the party. Nobody ever really knows for certain but we do know such charts end in tears and regret.
And this Vancouver party will be a real weeper when the curtain finally comes down.
I give it six months tops before the end arrives. I strongly suspect something is going to happen in China itself to end the buying escapade that is drowning Vancouver and Toronto is suitcases of US dollars that are making the all-cash deals happen to gasps and awe lately.
But even if we don’t know the exact date it does not matter much. What we know for certain is that the end is near and the results won’t be pretty as a hole the size of a Moose is smashed in the side of the Canadian Federal budget Canoe.
Because the Federal Government is backstopping all the excess risk through CMHC and that means the public is going to be on the hook when the bubble finally bursts. Whenever I wonder aloud what will take the Canadian dollar back to .60 US I only have to glance at that chart and be reassured.
Playing the China hard landing card probably means we need to be short CAD. Just my suspicions of course. Because when that bubble-thermometer in Vancouver finally overheats and bursts we will know for certain the China bubble has ended too. And that’s when the real deflation begins. But this time its global….not just a Vancouver story.
Vancouver SFH Real Estate Chart — (How to time the start of the global deflation)
http://www.news1130.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/sites/9/2016/02/02/rebgv.jpg
Fabrique au Chine, Birdman, I like the French version. Usually the condo market busts first, there is nothing like a good bust if you know what I mean. My neighbor who is a banker with GE assures me the detached housing market will remain strong until interest rates start to climb. I keep telling him to look over his shoulder because the robo advisors are here to stay. Uber is testing self driving vehicles, the cabbies and the uber drivers are duking it out without even a thought for how long either group will be working. It’s Nuts! DT
Right, the condo market. And in Toronto is just huge. Those would be all the people who might one day move up to single family homes. Take out first time buyers and damage the move up market and you have a big bust 🙂 on your hands. Down in California following the housing crash of 2006 it was actually outlying regions that took the biggest hit percentage-wise and were also the slowest to recover. The major cities bounced back because there is always demand from foreign buyers for certain locations. So what we should worry about is that a Toronto or Vancouver price crash will similarly be much harder on all the regional cities who are going to be the real casualties. It starts in the center and works its way out. I am not expecting a good outcome. And this one is the biggie….it can’t be avoided anymore.
All of the jobs generated in Toronto for the last fifteen years have been in the construction industry which includes banking, insurance, and government revenue derived from the buying, selling, and taxing of such properties. The Ontario government is thirty billion dollars in debt, (this is worse than California) when the crash comes it will take down the only performing sector of our economy and with it all the jobs. There is no industry, but there is debt as far out as you can go. The banks which are our mainstay I’m told could be under severe attack by Apples new pay system. Let’s not even think about Canada’s commodity sector or the threat that Artificial Intelligence poses. DT
Keep us posted DT. Sounds like its going to be a rough ride for Ontario this coming year. Maybe like Armstrong says….2017 will be the year from hell. I think he means everywhere too so we had best batten down the hatches.
Rick, what do you think of JDST as opposed to GDX at this point?
Reality on this board is finally taking hold. A miracle !!
Patience is a virtue but many lose patience and figure the world will be a good place because nothing has happened yet. Ignoring all the perils of high debt/leverage etc.
even though debt is leveraged well beyond sustainable. Its monumental and a catastrophe is right here our near future. Everything will return once again to discovery in fair market value for asset prices and its going to be a very painful time in history, if not the worst.
R.e. collapse in S. America, I don’t necessarily disagree. I definitely expect things to get worse from here, and for financial hardship to spread to more countries. As I mentioned in my posts about Venezuela, it seems to me S. America has been flooded with credit over the past decade, and that it won’t end well. I might choose the word ‘crisis’ rather than collapse, but only time will tell.
As for reality taking hold, I suspect many here are more or less in agreement with you, but they prefer not to dwell on worst case scenarios in their comments.
GH, thats only because we are faced with the worse case and “truth” in today’s era is a rare commodity. We have never experience a world that’s highly leveraged and in debt up and past it”s eyeballs. Then add a major war on top of that and as of today the stakes are increasing not decreasing. The Industrial War Complex is building up for a major offensive in Eastern Europe right on Russia’s doors step.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/344002-beware-russia-war-us/
This is just one news report of many. Read the comments section from other viewers and there is no denying it, war is coming. The problem is it will engulf the whole world. UK and USA are prime targets. It would only take 6 Russian nuclear bombs because they are so powerful to destroy almost everything in the US.
I could fill the page with reasons why we are headed for destruction. It could happen at any moment too. This is not fear porn and what people complain about and dismiss the facts/proof it’s never going to happen. Of coarse, when something as tragic and catastrophic as this happens not many will be around to say, you were warned.
I think, with each day that passes, the conventionals look more and more exhausted and ready to fall over.
Volume was almost non-existent today. Just computers trading with each other. Crazy.
NUGT moved up 12% intraday. There was action if you looked. And LABU (Biotech) also moved up almost 8% in the first hour. I keep thinking its on a breakout as it exceeded its 50 day today. Maybe keep an eye on that.
The Dow has closed below the 55 day EMA and the 50 day SMA for the fifth straight session…
So would you call it a buy……or a sell.
What do you think of silver right now Matthew?
Don’t ask him. Matthew doesn’t know. He still thinks we are in a secular bull market even though silver has retraced almost all the way back to where it started!
You don’t judge gold by what silver has done, Tweety. Good technicians know that gold is in a secular bull.
Oh I see. So silver can be in a secular bear but gold can be in a secular bull.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!! What a foolish promoter you are!!!
Please bring me ONE chart from anytime in the past 100 years where that was the case.
Lewis – despite the looks of those weekly STOs, I don’t think silver has much downside from here (maybe 2 or 3%)…
I am curious to see if that support trendline right above $16 will hold for Silver.
Thanks for the chart Matthew.
The 50 day MA has held so far…
Don’t hold your breathe Shad. Mathew is really not a very good technician and most of the time he leads people astray. He is more promoter than talent which I know for a fact as I have been reading his comments for more than 4 years.
Basically, he is the LAST person whose word I would depend on for an insight.
Really? On April 3rd, you said:
“When I am interested in small caps and pennies I take my cues from Matthew since he is the site expert in that area and has made a lot of fantastic calls over the past few years (don’t let your head explode over that comment Matthew!).”
and:
“As much as you irritate me some days Matthew I really appreciate your input. Some of your calls were stellar and I made a few coins listening to you. So keep up the good work. I am actually a big fan of yours when you talk about your area of specialty. I mean that. No hard feelings about the past, OK.”
Seek help Tweety.
Small caps and pennies are just a bunch of names that anybody not familiar with the topic can easily glean by subscribing to a site like BottomFish. But since I am too lazy to be bothered I just use the ones you repeat because I know you already paid for the subscription (eg…i don’t think for a second its actually your own work).
Meanwhile, lets just see how your estimate for a 2 or 3% drop in silver works out. We can talk again in a week to two. You will be wrong as usual. I wonder if you will apologize then for leading people astray once more.
But of course not……
What a complete fool and jackass you are Birdman. I am not a subscriber to any newsletter that recommends ANY of my picks.
The fact that you aren’t too embarrassed to keep posting comments here after making such a fool of yourself (again) just shows what a buffoon you are.
Birdman: “Mathew is really not a very good technician… he is the LAST person whose word I would depend on for an insight.”
Birdman: “…I take my cues from Matthew since he is the site expert in that area and has made a lot of fantastic calls over the past few years… Matthew I really appreciate your input. Some of your calls were stellar and I made a few coins listening to you. So keep up the good work. I am actually a big fan of yours…”
————-
You AND those who can’t see through you should not be taken seriously by anyone.
This is an interesting video. It is a meeting of the German AfD party that some claim to be far right Nazis. They say they are standing up against the islamification of Germany.
Their meeting attracted loads of German students outside the hall campaigning against them so they invited some of the students in to ask some questions.
It is in German but with sub-titles. It is well worth watching IMPO as it shows you the naviety, again IMPO, of German youngsters in the face of what is going on in Europe at the moment thanks to Merkel.
Check out this housing bubble disaster in the making. Your eyes will water at the numbers they are pulling in Australia’s stressed out banks.
Hedge Funds Are Betting Record Amounts on Meltdown of Australian Banks and Housing Bubble
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/23/hedge-funds-bet-meltdown-australian-banks-housing-bubble-record-short-positions/
Thanks guys – absolutely harrowing.
Yep, the average house prices here are mind numbing,
My next door neighbours house is currently listed on the market, Its a dump.
He wants 700-710K
He bought it 18 years ago for 80K
money seeks a home . I am in several Master limited partnerships that pay good dividends Mostly pipelines and medical buildings . I am at a small loss in Disney DIS but expect it to rise soon as Shanghi Disneyland is soon to open. Marvel movies [ant man etc] are making money and disney owns marvel. I have stopped swing tradeing gold stocks for now but expect great oportunitys in Sept and October. Best of health and wealth to you all . S
Russell S Hamilton – are you involved with any of these Limited Partnerships, or are there any on this list that you would avoid?
AMLP, BBEP, EPD, EQM, ETE, ETP, KMI, LINE, MEMP, MMP, PAA, VNR, WPZ, MCEP, MEMP, GST-A, LNCO, WPC, VTR, HCP, HTA, DOC, VNRBP, MAIN, BXMT, RY, BNS
Death Crosses Across the Board Are Irrefutable Stock Market Sell Signals.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/death-crosses-across-board-are-irrefutable-stock-market-sell-signals
Thanks for that article post John K. I’ve been noting the death crosses as well and feel the markets are in a very precarious set up.
I can’t take an out deflationary implosion off the table. After the big squeeze in commodities across the board, very few are talking about it. Guys who called bottoms in junior gold miners are as still arrogant as ever. Fine, nice call. You can keep it, I’ll just stay 5% in physical silver.
I’m more concerned with staying in cash, staying out of debt and surviving what could be explosive volatility ahead this year. Couldn’t care less what con men like Martin Armstrong or GS are peddling.
Dan: It is a fact that all commodities as measured by the BCOM and CRB hit a 5000 year low in real dollar terms in December-January. So is it your opinion that we are going to go still lower yet than at any time in history? Opinions are fine but do you really want to be arguing with facts? My opinion has been wrong often enough that when I am confronted with facts, I change my opinion.
Isn’t it a very real option that if we went below 5000 year lows recently that the Central Banks finally get their wish and inflation starts to rule? We have had our implosion already. I agree on the explosive volatility but way too many people are calling for lower and lower commodities for me to be comfortable.
Maybe in the short term but deflation is still the monster or big elephant in the room.
We have never had a world so catastrophically deep in debt well into the next galaxy and leveraged to highly unsustainable levels before in the history of the world.
With that being said, we are in a major war cycle and there is no denying it. Unless one lives in a remote place with no outside communications or dwells in a cave.
When the war does go full swing and it will, there is no way to predict right now that we are at any kind of a bottom for anything. Superpowers go to war and it looks likely as ice cream melting on a hot summer day in the Mojave desert.
ALL BETS ARE OFF. And “The Game Changer” is unfolding right before your very eyes.
TJ – It is precisely those deflationary pressures that guarantee (more) inflation of the money supply. Currencies will (continue to) be sacrificed in order to hide, not “cure,” deflation from the public and keep the scheme going. If aggressive enough, the CBs can achieve nominal GDP growth even while real GDP contracts sharply.
Matthew, good point but ‘The Game Changer” I advocate in the war cycle will cause The Imperialist Western System to go into nonexistent state or at least a condition that causes everything to collapse with especially all the humongous debt and leverage. We have never been here before in the history of the world.
Many people who are killed in a major war cycle and not many left to drive anything.
Major war cycle between the two superpowers is building and there is no let up.
Like I said, its the major – GAME CHANGER !! There will be no winners.
Ben Wier many here have complained about on USAWATCHDOG.COM is much closer to the truth. We have a deflation monster that is ready to be unleashed and nothing The Central Planners can do. I don’t believe all of Ben’s reasoning but like Rick A. said many times before, you can’t stop it. They can’t stop the carnage now never mind when war comes to our own homeland.
I agree that the deleveraging can’t be stopped in real terms (priced in gold) but maintain that the currency can be made sufficiently weak to keep nominal values deceptively high. Remember that the Federal Reserve NOTE is also debt and that it hasn’t held up well at all since real GDP peaked in 2000. Sure, it’s doing fine compared to other fiat currencies but it is down dramatically in real terms/purchasing power.
In its current form, the dollar is ultimately tied to the fate of the entire debt-based system. If the system goes, it goes. If deflation is allowed to follow its natural course, dollar denominated debt will collapse versus the dollar but it will be followed by the dollar collapsing against gold.
Rick A. is bullish the dollar and gold. When both go up, it means that the dollar is beating its paper peers and that gold is beating all paper currencies including the dollar.
Again Matthew good points and commentary. My argument is this. With a major war cycle and the likes of massive destruction between two superpowers The Fed is a failed institution at that point more than likely.
The bottomline, if one can survive the damages and chaos which not many will, gold will shine. But its going to be one heck of a struggle to prevail.
Best to be prepared and know that anything to do with any investments will be complete confusion and chaos. Survival of the very fittest.
Many will disagree and argue the life will be much more comforting. However, thats a bet they will make and have to live with. We have a gargantuan debt that will unwind along with a perfect storm. Leaders who are corrupt as the day as long.
Not a easy outcome and few survivors.
Big News in the Silver Sector today!
I was thinking Hecla would acquire Dolly Varden next, but maybe now that Mines Management took away the market risk it was too good of a deal for them to pass up.
__________________________________________________________________________
HECLA TO ACQUIRE MINES MANAGEMENT
May 24, 2016
Mines Management, Inc. (MGN)
0.88 Up 0.25(39.03%) 10:22AM EDT
http://www.minesmanagement.com/news-releases/mmi_pr_1607.html
It does makes sense geographically for Hecla to have the assets of Mines Management under their umbrella, because of the proximity to their working mines.
are the chinese leveraged in real estate? They pay nothing but cash here in the us.