Is the overall system more shaky then it’s ever been?
Rick Ackerman kicks off today with his comments on the overall investing climate. We talk about a possible bubble in the housing market but more so the overall environment of debt around the world and the lack of savings on an individual level.
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Surely CFS you don’t believe Glenn Beck’s propaganda!
Glen Back the Morman? Back to the guy that believes in talking snakes?
Howestreet Radio was discussing overvaluation of BC properties due to Chinese money…..predicting a slump followed by over 10 year period bear market in properties, if/when Chinese stop buying.
It’s about time. Sheesh. Those of us who follow the story closely have known it for years though. I wrote about this in detail in the past months. But until recently it was verboten to even utter the words “Chinese” and “Vancouver bubble” in the same sentence. As though it were some kind of racism. So if we are finally past that anal impediment to the discussion then we can finally get down to preparations for the crash. And it is going to be epic so put on your best crash helmet and bring lots of extra barf-baggies for the family who will hate your guts for not having seen the top and sold before it was too late. Oh Joy….I can hardly wait.
When the insanely overvalued Canadian real estate market finally reaches its nose bleed apex the subsequent implosion takes hold the massive crater that will be left will easily be seen from high earth orbit.
Hundreds of thousands of people making bad choices. This gets filed away in the same database called the “idiot files” right along with Obama’s ACA. No tears!
I agree Vortex. Idiocy knows no bounds. But you could not warn the speculators and buyers away from this market. No amount of garlic or historical analogies could stop them. They only saw those 10 to 15% annual gains and just presumed they would continue for years to come.
The problem is that mortgages are long term commitments.
That means that virtually EVERYBODY who has bought with 5% down during the past 7 years will be underwater after the bubble breaks because once a bubble bursts you are looking at double digit declines and many years before a recovery ensues.
So Joe Smarty-Smart Sixpack who bought two years ago and saw his “investment” appreciate from 700,000 to 850,000 is going to feel pretty sick to the stomach when that same house can’t fetch 500,000 in three years time.
By the way, 35% is the absolute minimum decline that should be expected after this kind of bubble breaks. Just look at the chart pattern. It is already at South Seas Bubble levels as an analog.
I actually believe that 50% is far more likely and at least a decade or more before there is a recovery. Thousands of people are going to lose their homes during that time. Tens of thousands more will be underwater for years longer. This is a Canadian tragedy. Songs will be written about it.
For older buyers, some will never see these highs again in their lifetimes.
Bird, there’s nothing left to say. I couldn’t have said it better myself.
Monetary mother nature will do what she always does, and there is no amount of flailing about, screaming about the injustice or playing the blame game that will stop the carnage.
Reversion to the mean is a foregone conclusion at some point. Bad choices were made by people that could have made the right choice and not play in the arena of the greater fool game.
No tears!
V
Are you from Vancouver by any chance Vortex? If so you might know the details of how the last big property bubble broke in the 1930’s. It was an absolute disaster.
Shaugnessy homes of the millionaire class of the day went begging. Many sat empty for years. The City of Vancouver eventually took many back for taxes and Vancouver’s most upscale neighborhood turned into rooming houses for the poor and those wayward transients who were streaming in from the Prairies as it turned to a dust bowl.
From mansions to rooming houses. Not saying that will happen again. But these big busts tend to be very serious once they begin.
Bird, I’m just an average old country boy from nowhere USA. All I know is that for all practical purposes most Canadians are just like most Americans. Dumb as a mud flap on a dump-truck and wouldn’t have it any other way.
Easily influenced, overtly/covertly manipulated and stunningly easy to bamboozle and herd in the direction that the controllers and banks find as the flavor of the day.
Buying and participating in an insanely over-priced housing market is just the overt manifestation of just how easy it is to influence behavioral greed and peer pressure adults into doing stupid ****, such as buying a Million dollar shack that is over priced by a magnitude of 20X to 30X times, that in any other normal era would sell everyday for $75,000 to $90,000.
Sometimes you just can’t fix stupid!
No tears.
Wait till the carpetbaggers sweep into Vancouver after the fall, crash, boom, bang, maybe you are one of them but remember it takes quite a few years after the crash for prices to meet their mean, or will it be quicker because of the catastrophic highs. DT
Here’s one for Trader Jake (HH?):
http://plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=288
Price is always worth a listen. The opening few paragraphs and closing few are right up TJs alley. In between Price demolishes the absurdity of the mainstream economics profession. They’ve got PE — physics envy, and like to imagine they’re doing science.
Thanks GH. I skimmed over it and right in line with my analysis. We are only months away. 2017 is historically and has held true for over a hundred years a crisis is only a short time away. Any decade with the year 7 in it.
GH, only this time we will reach a point were recovery is not an option. The system is all primed and ready to completely implode. Total destruction.
Real estate is now in its final inning. They are so desperate to inflate this bubble mania that lurks and consumes society. Otherwise, they know the dominos of destruction will literally crush society.
Like it wasn’t designed that way. All by design. This is their goal. I could keep typing for all the reasons till the sun goes down here. Anarchy, will take the populous by surprise except for myself.
THEY MIGHT BE SELLING, I’M NOT BUYING !!! Americans are in a coma.
I liked the article GH, thx.
“End of an age”, maybe, we shall see. I know people argue the meaning but Jesus said he will be with people or in other words, be gone at the end of the age.
Conciousness might change, maybe we stop killing the earth, each other etc, that would be a nice change. Hard to imagine.
Thx Rick, always appreciate your opinions.
Gold to 2000 or so sounds good to me. I don’t want the price of money going up when I’m accumulating it with profits from the miners. In other words, worthwhile real gains in the miners are harder to achieve if gold is flying higher.
The really big moves for gold will probably start no sooner than two or three years from now.
No one can predict what’s going to happen week to week much less two or three years from now.
Classic case of someone who see’s all the perils but ignores them because they find the truth a buz killer. Or even envy and greed.
Truth is a rare commodity in this era. Many reasons why too.
Ignore and forgive the post above since it was regarding the price of gold.
My apologies !!!
When it comes to the markets, Matthew either has horseshoes up his ying yang, or he is the real deal. So far he has been R.O. ! DT
The real deal!!
Also Gregg Hunter does another excellent interview exposing the criminals and banksters.
http://usawatchdog.com/criminal-bankers-threaten-entire-world-economy-helen-chaitman/
His last interview people criticized with Bix Wier was a lot closer to the truth. IMHO.
No one knows all the protocols how it all comes crashing down but we do know this.
Assets will disappear and the system will lock up. Total chaotic mess from the pits down under. Mens hearts will fail them for fear from whats coming from up under the earth. People have no understanding as evil multiplies by leaps and bounds. There will be supernatural events later in this cycle. Survivors will think its over and the worst is yet to come.
It is a good sign that my bunch of juniors are up more than 3% today while GDXJ is down 1%.
I remain all-in and am down just 6.5% from my 2016 high (which just made it to a quadruple).
This must have a lot to do with the jump in GMX shares this week:
Globex Options Two Quebec Lithium Projects to Great Thunder Globex Acquires Eleven New Lithium Exploration Projects Globex Lithium Royalty Property
http://globexmining.com/staging/admin/news_pdfs/5-26-16%20Option_Chubbs_Bouvier.pdf
That’s because you pick the right stocks. In the 80’s gold was flat to even down and gold mining shares were soaring. ETF’s are risky and only if the gold price is rising will that work out. You have to know what your buying to stop the bleeding if gold price does not move in your favor.
no one can predict what gold is going to do two or three years from now.
Foolish talk
That’s precisely correct with the criminals at The Control Tower.
You’re funny, JTL.
Agreed Matthew!
JTL is spot on. The one’s here that are critical and posting here a few years ago was off significantly.
Best to keep quiet. Gold is highly volatile and dangerous asset. Bo Polny who called the market perfectly 5 years ago could not shoot fish in a barrel predicting the price of gold last few years.
With stocks, bonds, and currencies being where they’re at now, we have a lot more clarity about the future direction of gold.
Those who think gold is a dangerous asset are implying that the USD is safer. THAT is funny.
My guess is not so outlandish, I think gold will do what its always done, preserve purchaseing power, as far as Im concerned thats all its supposed to do.
Could spike or tank, but overall, preserve purchaseing power.
Thats my guess. no real riches and no real losses.
IMO, it has a place in an investment and/or a retirement portfolio.
5-10%, nothing really to get overly excited about.
Just ask JTL who is a longtime precious metal investor. It’s all been down hill. That’s the same for most and complete losses across the spectrum.
Also, gold crowd and long term gold analysts predicted gold must go back up and test the highs. NEVER HAPPENED !!! While the DJIA and R.E. make big come backs through the decades. Not with PM’s. Its all high risk.
These precious metals markets are highly dangerous and volatile.
Matthew, I did say DANGEROUS.
Any asset that goes from $2000 five years ago and can’t recover 5 year later and still off by 40% is…HIGHLY DANGEROUS. Just ask the investors still on this board from 4 or 5 years ago. Like I said ask a 1000 people how they got wealthy and lucky to find one that says PM’s. Also, silver has fared far worse. For many investors it’s been a complete nightmare. It will continue that way. Its all precise timing and lots of luck too.
Oil and commodities in general fell a lot more than gold did so its real decline was a lot less than 40%. The dollar did more rising than gold did falling in the last few years but it looks like you’re giving the dollar a pass for its horrendous showing since the economy peaked in 2000. Why aren’t you talking about the fact that the dollar has lost more than half of its purchasing power (to be conservative)?
Relative to oil and even gasoline, gold is higher today than it was in 2011 at $1923 and hasn’t performed nearly as poorly as you think when compared to many other items.
Did you know that the Dow would have to triple from here in order to get back to its 1999 gold value?
No matter the asset, most people buy high and sell low. Most people will also do ANYTHING to avoid blaming themselves for their bad results. Therefore, most people better get used to losing.
Excellent points Matthew but I would rather have my $2000 from 5 years ago. I still have to sell the gold to make purchases. I’m still losing 40 percent and much more with spreads.
Very long term your analysis holds some water. All depends on all the purchases.
My argument anything in the last 5 years has been a loss. No question. In the 80’s and 90’s the bear market persisted. 20 years. Complete tragedy.
Do the math. any purchases made above $1200 for the last 5 years in a loss.
Matthew, its been a traders market the last 5 years. No one knows how long that might continue. Gold is quite capable of a rally to $1400 or past that and then falling on its head down to $600 in the years ahead.
1980’s through 1990’s no could believe that 20 years later the price would be at $250.
My best suggestion is enjoy the profits trading it and be very very careful with pie in the sky. Actually, if you see the fever really setting in and the whole world is jumping in – might be best to hold. You need to know the difference between a gold rush and a rally that ends in failure. The Club is still in control.
Jake, you guys are talking american dollars, I bought gold awhile before the “peak” guessing about $1000 canadian, coming down but still about $1580 at this moment, I havnt lost a penny in gold.
Im not including what I bought in the $300 range.
Kinda bad luck I guess to buy at the 15 minute time frame of the “peak” dumb imo to buy everything you intend to own all at once, but some people dont realize the way to buy gold is monthly.
imo monthly until your at 5-10% whatever the goal is.
I just think figuring fom the peak or the exact bottom of anything isnt the best way to look at it.
As an example, I think in the past 5 years I might have got within a few pennies of an exact bottom maybe twice? Unless Im selling, in which case I have no problem hiting an exact bottom. lol
Basically, if your good at it, which guys like Mathew might very well be, you can make coin trading anything.
If a person thinks as I do, 5-10% phyzz, it really doesnt matter what the price is.
Heck, as a matter of fact, check Bobs book and use the sure winning method of gold for silver,silver for gold trade.
Price doesnt matter in a couple scenarios.
Also, the trend right now is robots replacing workers. The liberals are even talking about doing away with all The Western borders.
It’s just another nail in golds coffin. Gold spiked to $2000 about 5 years ago. A spike high is a bad sign of a bear market to continue much longer than gold community realizes.
Conclusion: Its all very high risk and dangerous. I maintain that opinion.
Gold is like fire insurance. During major wars or even risky places many could buy their way out of the chaos to a safe haven.
Like I have said too, during major wars gold did not do anything. Its negative for gold.
We are in a major war cycle and that should be obvious now. Major war is inevitable and assured.
Major war? no worries then,we get nuked and all worries are over.
Think about it, if the neocons press hard enough Russia responds, they have nukes large enough now to take out the eastern seabord of the states or Texas with one nuke, and those are the ones that cant be stopped.
They are 4 generations ahead of the states right now, heck the brits are still employing aircraft carriers, lol talk about prepareing for the last war.
Its rediculas to worry about it.
Dont worry, be happy.
b, Its either gold or USDX.
Unless you trade currencies. Anyone who kept their money is USDX is still far better off.
If the USDX goes up and it probably well, your gold will be worth less in USDX.
USDX has trumped gold last 5 years.
Well, I guess the majority of Americans are happy they didnt buy gold, but from what I read, the majority of americans dont have to deal with the issue as they cant afford gold.
5-10% jake, its not as big a deal as some people make it out to be.
Now, Mike Maloney or Dave Morgan, they could be sweating bullets. lol
On the other hand, I think they sell gold…..for fiat.
b, unless your high net worth individual. As fire insurance, no one needs more than $20K.
Or it becomes speculation once again. IMVHO
Also, referring to physical metal only. In hand.
We can’t even predict a month down.
Rye Patch Signs Agreement to Acquire Florida Canyon Gold Mine and
Commitment Letter for a US$27 Million Credit Facility for Mine Restart
Markedforfuture: Might a takeover by Coeur be on the cards?
No clue…a trail to the mines leads here…
https://www.jipangu.co.jp/en/about_jipangu/jipangu_goldmine_01
For anyone doing DD on the Golden Triangle? AMK.V has the other part of the Treaty Creek JV with Tudor Gold.
Fairweather, Delta and High North Property Option Agreements Assigned to Tudor Gold Corp. Corporate update- http://teuton.com/fairweather-delta-and-high-north-property-option-agreements-assigned-to-tudor-gold-corp/
Brent Cook – MIF May 2016: “Mining Equities from a Retail Perspective”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tufgYfnmp_k&feature=youtu.be
I’m glad none of you noticed that DT or Donald Trump has the required number of delegates to avoid a contested convention. Jeff Deist is still trying to figure out how The Donald did this, wisdom is dispensed for people who have MA’s or PHD’s.
is after wisdom should be isn’t.
Chicken Coop included….good one Al
Interesting comments by author Brad Thor about Trump:
https://soundcloud.com/glennbeck