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As we start Friday we focus on the Conventional Markets and the Precious Metals Markets with Rick Ackerman

Big Al
May 27, 2016

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Not much happening in the markets just before the Memorial Day Observance other than a continuation of the downward movement in precious metals.

Discussion
58 Comments
    LPG
    May 27, 2016 27:38 AM

    Big Al,

    Quick correction:
    FWIW, you mentioned in the very first few seconds of the interview “Q1 16 GDP was revised down”.
    In fact it was revised UPWARD (0.5% was the initial print) – not down.

    Best as always,

    LPG

      May 28, 2016 28:01 AM

      LPG, really, is there any difference? If reality set in, and truthful numbers were represented, we haven’t had economic growth in 45 years.

    b
    May 27, 2016 27:59 AM

    Good grief guys, we could hit $800 yet.
    Didnt Rick point that out some months ago?

    For gold to increase, I think we need “the madness of crowds” to kick in.

    We have a 70 year above ground supply of gold, and thats if mining stopped today.

    Will gold go up? Yupper, but not because of supply demand.

    Ever hear the story of the two gamblers that put 2 sugar cubes on a table to bet which one a fly would land on? (the point is people will bet on anything)

    People will bet on gold again, when is the question, whats the trigger?

      May 27, 2016 27:07 PM

      Gold has all of June to fall and bottom near the end of the month or in July.

        b
        May 27, 2016 27:42 PM

        I think Rick and Doc got it right some time ago, gold could get to $800 (think thats what he said) and Doc was saying the doldrums and lows were coming.

        Timing is everything for traders, but for people that dont want to be glued to the screen, the doldrums could be the time to buy.
        We will still have the question of are we going lower, but that shouldnt take too long to become obvious no matter which way it goes.
        I know nothing, but if gold is going to do (preserve purchasing power) what it has done for centuries we could get into a bull.

        Actually, if a person was good at math, he should be able to figure out how high it should go by calculating the decrease in purchasing power of the dollar.
        Well, itll over shoot of course but then everything does.
        Madness kicks in for a goldrush and we will all be reading KWNs. lol

          May 27, 2016 27:46 PM

          My target for a long time has been 800 and I expected it would be reached next year.

            May 27, 2016 27:21 PM

            Paul, a few years back I remember you saying GDX at around 12 or so. Oil I believe you made some stellar markets calls as well over the last year.

            You see $800 gold and I have to agree. Many would have never believed the miners going to levels in the last year on that last bottom. It happened.

            Seems to me we have too many gold bulls hanging on. Keep us updated and whatever you are doing is excellent’e.

            May 28, 2016 28:11 PM

            It will paul L.By the end of the 1st quarter of 2017 you will attain your goal.

          May 27, 2016 27:27 PM

          b, its not too late to subscribe to Harvey Organ. Limited offer !!

          Then you will really be in gold heaven. $5000 gold is right around
          the corner.

            May 27, 2016 27:58 PM

            Actually Jake how about next wèek. Listen to Bo!

            May 27, 2016 27:08 PM

            Monday morning on the open !!! Bo said at one time the easiest thing is to predict is gold.

            $2000 gold came and gone. Just off a few years and counting.

    May 27, 2016 27:21 AM

    Hi ppl.Imho gold has reached its peak at 1303 and has since started another leg down to lower lows.If 1210 holds then gold could retrace to the 1280 until mid june.Once that target is reached I am expecting a waterfall decline to 1120 level.

      May 27, 2016 27:35 AM

      My second scenario is that we are still in the last leg i.e 5th leg of this impulsive leg up that started last december.If so price is in the initial stages of minute wave v of the last leg up targeting the 1327-30 level.Either or price still has to retrace up to 1280 minimum imho.

    May 27, 2016 27:38 AM

    My second scenario invalidation point is 1208.91.If price drops lower then 2nd scenario will be invalidated leaving my 1st scenario as the possible outcome.

    May 27, 2016 27:16 AM
      b
      May 27, 2016 27:46 PM

      Without listening to it Im gonna guess he says gold up.

        May 27, 2016 27:31 PM

        Ha! Bulls Eye bb. You probably guessed right.

        Just like every single article from Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin or Goldcore or Egon von Greyerz or Bo Polny or Peter Schiff or Dave Kranzler or Harvey Organ or Jim Sinclair or Gary Christenson and on and on and on…..

        They are all so predictable.

        Because it’s ALWAYS a good time to buy silver and gold in their books. And of course that’s why you cannot trust a single word any of them speak or write on the subject because its just BULL BULL BULL day in and day out ad nauseum with hardly a hint of shame to cover the obvious agenda they perpetually spout.

          b
          May 27, 2016 27:20 PM

          I guess its PM miners that advertise so its buy buy buy.

          This is a P Schiff interview, one of the fellows interviewing makes the point Schiff has been saying gold up for years, meanwhile he has missed huge gains.

          https://youtu.be/KGlZ7DU1olI

            May 27, 2016 27:29 PM

            Thanks anyway b. But I can’t listen to that whiny, pathetic preachy, voice anymore. He’s been banned from my computer for a couple years now. Right along with that insipid sounding car salesman Maloney whose voice makes me want to rip my own hair out. Same old story every day. If those guys are the real face of gold then gold is doomed for another 20 years.

            May 27, 2016 27:28 PM

            A lot of opportunists out the Bird. Preaching to the choir and getting the
            choir to pay them. Not a bad racket!

            May 27, 2016 27:41 PM

            There is a lot of truth in that adage that people will pay for others to tell them what they already believe. So I guess we can’t entirely blame the promoters for making a business based on the nature of people who only want to hear their own lies repeated back to them by others to confirm their flawed beliefs.

            There is sure no business in offering the straight goods though. If there was then I could probably do a good trade as an advisor on gold for those few people who live in the contrarian world.

            But as you have seen……I don’t make many friends here telling the truth in spite of the fact my record is among the best in the business for forecasting precious metals. Oh well…..maybe in the next life.

          b
          May 27, 2016 27:49 PM

          I disagree Bird, I happen to think thee are people that would value the best “truth” a person could provide.
          There are those out here that do offer other than buy buy buy.
          Bob M, for example, will tell you if ya want to hear it or not. lol
          What about Norcini? He was early expecting the turn in PMs but he was telling people very simply, what goes up comes down.
          They survive and have subs, Im sure theres more that I dont know about.

          Hey, Mikey Fulp, excellent example, if a person wanted to invest big money in a single project there are not too many better to have check it out for you.
          Otherwise, all his stuff is free, his stratagy is when something doubles sell half, he is a staight forward guy and has lots of people reading his work.

          Read mickeys work and see if thats not the case. If you wanted to write your thinking, people would read it, if it was any good of course, you might have to up the game a little. lol

            May 27, 2016 27:07 PM

            The big money seems to always get made by those who broadcast positive outcomes and pay homage to the perpetual gold bulls. They have the widest fan base, the most subscribers, the highest fees, the most TV and Radio interviews and are the best known public names in the gold community.

            Some of them are legends despite being dead wrong for years!

            Yes bb, there are other guys out there who offer objectivity but they mostly seem to struggle to attract business. When you decide to sell to that devoted camp of religious nutcases known as gold-bugs though your business can really thrive and prosper.

            There is something valuable in life to be learned by that lesson although I am not sure exactly what it is. At the end of the day though…the customer is always right. Even if that customer is a raving, lunatic, fringe member of society who wants to reinstate a gold standard.

            A guy can get rich peddling to those buyers. You only need to bite your tongue each time the truth seems like it might slip from your lips. Never alienate your customers!

            b
            May 27, 2016 27:13 PM

            I guess Bird, In my stores customers would play games, my staff was never permited to win. We would laugh about how hard it was to lose at times.
            Bob Zuk, a friend of mine, was an international chess master, actually played Spasky and Fisher, anyway, he would give lesson people could buy a book to learn for a couple bucks but would pay lots for Bob to talk students thru moves.

            People are just that way I guess.

            May 27, 2016 27:31 PM

            I am still shaking my head that Bo Polny gets away with charging 20,000 dollars a year for his idiotic advice. If that guy was right about anything this year it was just by accident because he has been repeating the same thing since I first heard his name. Maybe God just loves him better than the rest of us!

            Unbelievable but true.

            Yesterday I was reading Larry Edelson’s report where he mentions he has 36,000 followers. That number really shocked me too. I don’t know if those are actually paying subscribers to his Real Wealth Report or just the total number of people who have signed up for his weekly public commentary but it is a huge following.

            Larry is in a very different camp from the others we mentioned though and he is a respectable and insightful analyst who I enjoy reading. So all the power to him. But 36,000 followers? Holy Crap Batman! Is there still that many gold bugs who have survived this long into the bear market?

            Wow!!!!

            b
            May 27, 2016 27:36 PM

            People like to invest,speculate, gamble.
            Millions do, maybe 36k due to the net isnt so many?

            20k for Bo?? that is unreal, you would think people that had 20k to spend on advice other than doing a little reading for themselves, would be a little more on the ball.
            Some people just dont have time to read I guess.
            Why read Bo? Thats hard to reason.

            May 28, 2016 28:10 AM

            No, 36,000 is a huge number. All the paid services we mostly hear about have a thousand subscribers or two at the most. So Larry’s numbers are literally off the charts. I just didn’t know he was that popular is all. Very impressive.

      May 27, 2016 27:21 PM

      AA:

      Would you buy a used car from him?

    May 27, 2016 27:47 AM

    My second scenario has been invalidated.1st scenario has come into play.

    May 27, 2016 27:09 PM

    Rick’s pvt (2) and target on the August contracts. GCQ6 a= 1264.1 // pvt 2 = 1204.45 // target (d) = 1193.7

    b
    May 27, 2016 27:45 PM

    Geez the thread is “dead”, ya think we could get a few guesses from the bears at least.

      May 27, 2016 27:38 PM

      Down….but I don’t want to say more because I don’t want to jinx my good luck today. Its the close for May that will really count b. Right now I can see by the action in the inverse miner ETF’s that the gold camp is still very bullish and they are busy buying every dip having been totally convinced by so many well known gold guys that we are in a new bull market.

      Won’t they be surprised when we are trading down at the lows again.

      It’s a GD conspiracy I tells ya!!!

        b
        May 27, 2016 27:24 PM

        lol
        I was actually going to short the other day. I dont often as the risk reward here is way off.
        Anyway, it was a no brainer so I figured what the heck, and my broker was OFFLINE. lol
        Thats life.

          May 27, 2016 27:42 PM

          Maybe just as well. My timing on that trade was TERRIBLE if that makes you feel any better. Like a lot of people I was not expecting gold to make a second right translated high at the end of April so I got pretty bogged down there for awhile.

            May 27, 2016 27:02 PM

            Next week looks like gold will start back up as well. We won’t know for certain until Monday of course but gold could be on the rise for a couple weeks before its real dive begins. If that happens b, it will be time to get back on the long side again for awhile by my reckoning.

            May 27, 2016 27:36 PM

            That comment above refers only to the small picture by the way so don’t let it confuse you b.

            My main theme is still for gold to collapse back to its lows and then see new lows (in case I have not said that often enough already to make sure there is absolutely no doubt where I stand!).

            So now that the month has ended I have a little treat for you. Check out this long term gold chart for some perspective. On a monthly basis gold has rewarded me for my loyalty to my beliefs by posting an outside reversal.

            Yaaayyyy Birdman!!!! Cha Cha Cha!!!!!

            If you are not sure what that is bb then I will refer you to looking at the last “red bar” on the futures chart I am linking. That bar is representing the month of May 2016. If you will observe it exceeds the length of the green bar posted in April by being both higher than Aprils highs and lower than Aprils lows.

            That is called an outside reversal pattern. And because its on a monthly its huge news.

            Because THAT has not happened to gold since August of 2011 which as you know marked the very top in the decade long gold bull market that had begun in the year 2001. In other words b……gold is DOOMED.

            But don’t take my word for it. Just keep your eyes on the screen and be careful who you listen too. Next week if gold rises again as I think it will, the usual suspects will be out in force working overtime trying to convince you its time to get long for a multi-year bull market in precious metals.

            They are DEAD WRONG so be very cautious. Gold is about to meet its maker once more and I think that you will see soon enough that I have been correct all along that this is no new bull market at all……

            Just a bear market rally in a long secular decline and nothing more.

            The good news if you have plenty of time to make a list of great gold companies to buy for when the real bull begins down the road. It also means you did not miss the boat since January nor did anyone else.

            Gold on a Monthly Chart — Finviz.com
            http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m1

            May 27, 2016 27:40 PM

            It also means everyone on this site has to start calling me Jeddi-Birdman!

            Being as that is my real name and all…. 🙂

            May 27, 2016 27:52 PM

            So you lived in a galaxy far, far away!

            May 27, 2016 27:50 PM

            PS….May is not over so that pattern is not 100% complete but it does not matter because its already too late to change the outcome of the length of the outside bar. That remark is for Matthew who will no doubt pop in to remind me May is not finished yet because there are two more trading days.

            May 27, 2016 27:04 PM

            That’s right Al. It’s a galaxy far, far away called “The Real World”.

            Don’t you just hate it…..I was right AGAIN!!!!!!

            CHA CHA CHA!!!!

            b
            May 27, 2016 27:23 PM

            Bird, I dont know if youve read my posts for the last year or 5 or so.
            I have figured for some time gold could get to around a thousand, Ricks 800 could be an overshoot. At that point, we find out if a bull starts or we go to Dents numbers.

            Personally, I think we get a bull and I think it could go for years, a slow up, not really an overnight revaluation.
            But how the heck would I know? Its just what I think. I dont even know if gold gets to around a thousand, I just think so.

            So, I pretty much agree with you, I checked the chart and see what your describing, I have to take your word for its meaning, I dont see anything in charts other than obvious trends.
            Altho, on the 1 minute I can see when price is going to go up and down at times.
            That would pay with those triple leveraged options you guys have on the american market, tuff to make it pay on the canadian. At least Ive found it tuff.

            May 27, 2016 27:44 PM

            You bet b. I have read your comments and know that you are in that small band of brothers that doubts a new gold bull market has begun. Now we have some hard evidence and it is very compelling from a technical perspective if not outright damning of the bullish case.

            But don’t worry about anybody catching on.

            Tigers don’t change their stripes and nothing you or I say will materially affect what most of the market does. There are however some very bright people who, after seeing that outside reversal on gold, will not hesitate to start dumping their miners and metals whenever the price is in their favour.

            That indicator is a bullet in the heart of the “New Gold Bull” thesis and it proves that virtually EVERYBODY including some very well known names have been dead wrong all along just as I have been asserting for months.

            That includes Gary Savage and all the popular Guru names you care to mention.

            Listen bb, I appreciate your support. Not many here are on my side. And Its OK to say you believe gold will fail even if you are not sure why. In my case however I have been unequivocal in expressing my disagreement with virtually every single analyst out there. I have had few doubts on this subject even if I was unable to perfectly time some of the moves.

            Its just that I look at everything because its all connected and I have better charts and don’t trade by emotion. That simple really.

            May 28, 2016 28:06 AM

            So just to let this point really sink in b, I have to repeat one comment from up above. At the end of May which is just a few days away we will be posting an official outside reversal on the gold chart.

            It is ONLY the second such time this has happened since August 2011. It is a VERY big deal. So be careful with those long calls on precious metals because we all know how well gold performed after it hit its top in 2011.

            This might also help explain why there was so much Spec open interest and in response such a massive number of short positions by the Commercials and banks. They have better information to go by so maybe they knew more in advance and were thus extra confident of themselves.

            But this all brings us back to that chart of Comex gold reserves versus open interest in gold where that author was asserting it meant gold would soar. After reading that guys posts I warned that what that chart actually was telling us was that Comex gold reserves would be increasing substantially or open interest would take an elevator down the mine shaft.

            Of course I was absolutely right. Just watch what happens next. Gold is going to go out of favour in a big way and a lot of speculators and hedge funds are going to lose their damned shirts in the process,

        May 27, 2016 27:47 PM

        Birdman This is what Larry Edelson told his subscribers Wed.
        http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/remember-warning-gold-mining-shares-78471

          May 27, 2016 27:31 PM

          Thanks Doug.

            May 27, 2016 27:41 PM

            PS….Larry is wrong. Don’t back up the truck.

            May 27, 2016 27:45 PM

            Because gold is on a major monthly sell signal. I mentioned this the other day and said I would tell you guys if I got it. Well…..I got it. Gold is on a sell now in the big picture. There is a confirming signal I am waiting for that should come in about two weeks. Lets just say my confidence is high in that regard as well. I will let you guys know when it happens though.

            May 27, 2016 27:51 PM

            Regarding purchasing gold now, I would be very careful.

            May 27, 2016 27:06 PM

            Welcome aboard Al.

            b
            May 27, 2016 27:42 PM

            What? Your not thinking its more gold for the money?
            Buy buy buy.
            Well, till ya got 5% of investible income anyway.

            May 27, 2016 27:48 PM

            Ha! Yeah, I will buy the dip at the next bottom, b.
            Next Christmas sounds about right to me.
            It remains to be seen if that will give us a final bottom though.
            We have an ugly, epic, historically hard deflation ahead of us yet.
            I can’t call gold quite that far in advance. Not yet anyway.

    JC
    May 27, 2016 27:14 PM

    If the low today does not hold next week, then I think we are headed down to at the1190 area…maybe lower. That is where the rising trendline is approximately depending on how you calculate it. So MJ12 target of 1193.7 is right in the ball park….

    May 27, 2016 27:56 PM

    My twitter position went up 5.6% today. I had sold my HPQ 2 days ago in the after market drop at a tiny gain with the earnings release but that has gone up over $1 since as earnings were strong but revenue down.
    I was hoping for a 2100 close and we closed at the exact high of the day at 2099.06.

    May 27, 2016 27:02 PM

    Gold has had 5 years to make a break out. Who thinks that gold is about to break out now and continue this rally. We have a lot of work to do on the downside and the white metals are not confirming. 12 years of buying precious metals 2000 through 2012 has many investors now in a position to sell the longer this poor action continues. 1200 gold is not cheap. Silver is down against gold for 3 years. Platinum is depressed as ever. Whatever !! Nothing is confirming, too many divergences in the wrong direction.
    These billionaires like Rule have been wrong too many times before. Platinum was the sweet darling and that went in the opposite direction. Wrong many times last few years.

    May 27, 2016 27:08 PM

    Here is something for Rick on the deflation theme.

    Rick is one of the very few people who correctly identifies that the hallmark of an oncoming deflationary period is the very heavy levels of debt being carried by a society that cannot be repaid and thus will at some point have to be repudiated. We are not there yet but that time is still coming. Actually it is now in the process of unfolding before our eyes so we have not sidestepped the bullet as the inflation camp would like us to believe.

    Anyway, Ricks assertion is backed up by one of the most brilliant guys out there. Here is a brief 3 minute interview with Lacy Hunt.

    “Over indebtedness actually pushes you into deflation which means that you then have to pay the debts back in harder dollars. So the most common sense thing to do is to stay out of debt and stay out of obligations and to try to live within ones means as best as possible” ~~ Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Management

    LACY HUNT: Debt is hurtling the US toward an economic crisis
    http://www.businessinsider.com/lacey-hunt-debt-is-hurtling-the-us-towards-an-economic-crisis-2016-5

    May 28, 2016 28:35 AM

    In Armstrong’s own words just days ago on his blog. “We are standing on the edge of a cliff”.

    The investment community is a world full of boiler room sales pitches. Wall Street is pitching paper assets. loan brokers are pumping out loans, real estate brokers selling multi million dollar crap shacks, gold promoters preaching the cult and it’s a continual process each one of them selling their idols.

    In conclusion, its all one giant ponzi scheme and scam. Central Planners installed Wall Street to push paper and dare you sell anything The Central Planners are against. You sell gold related assets and you will never be anyone on Wall Street. The Stock Brokers will never recommend gold investments. Or they will lose their jobs. Stock Brokers invest their money on Wall Street and they pitch paper because it serves their best interest.

    The gold community has the gold promoters who take positions in the gold market and brokers like Sprott must pitch gold because it lines their pockets. Even those that are not gold brokers like Sinclair is pitching gold to keep his boat elevated. Get everyone in you can. Tell them anything, hire Holter. Golds going to $10K within months.

    Sell, sell.sell. pitch and pump.

    So now we have one giant bubble from all these boiler rooms and sales people. Most of them are selling bubble assets. Like multi million dollar crap shacks and worthless paper on Wall Street. Not to mention all the toxic treasury bond paper that will one day be arse wipe.

    Its one of humanities great experiments and it’s now unraveling. All this comes as a major war is about to send us into the stone ages all levered up. Of coarse you won’t hear this from anyone else. Everyone is well trained to keep the illusions going forever until the day of reckoning arrives. The boiler rooms must be kept pumping or the ponzi scheme collapses. Sell debt, sell everything, lever grossly over valued assets. It must be pumped until it fails. No choice now.

    We are past…too late !!!