Long term pattern changes for gold!
Doc and Cory take a look at oil and gold today. The take home in this interview is the pattern changes on the longer term monthly chart for gold. Finally we are seeing signs that a long term bull market is underway and just at the beginning. This will not be a to the moon bull market but one that builds on itself year after year.
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Doc Fan, I’m not impressed with this move higher by gold; in fact I hope it fails for a number of reasons. You’re right about a possible broad head/shoulders formation on the daily charts. Time will tell.
Here is a GDX chart Doc showing some important levels to watch. Need to clear it on weekly close. http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1blj9nt-Screen%20shot%202016-06-09%20at%207.26.38%20PM.png
Yes, very nice chart. It seems we have a GDX sandwich right here (currently $26.35)…
Some Fib fans…
Thanks for showing me your charts Mathew. You are much more clued up on fib levels, moving averages and the like. I tend to stick with patterns. Always good to see what others are looking at. Doc has got me interested in MACD and bollinger bands too which I also find valuable.
Ty, the resistance levels you identified are probably the most significant ones right now so you sure aren’t missing much, if anything. Thanks for posting your chart.
Then there’s this…
The 233 week EMA is currently 26.29…
Ty, great chart.
Thanks Doc. I don´t always write comments but always listen to your commentary. Keep up the good work!
I am a bit confused Doc.
Your commentary with Cory sounded very bullish on the PMs but now you have posted that you are not impressed by the move up in gold today?
I would have thought, from my non-expert position, that gold going up as the USD goes up is positive.
Bob, I’m very bullish on the PMs long term. This is going to be a U-shaped recovery for the PMs and the stocks which I’ve mentioned over and over again over the last year and one-half. I’m not impressed with this current move up in gold over the last few days but impressed with the move since January. Gold going up with the USD is positive for one day only but if it continues this correlation going forward, then that makes it very positive. One day doesn’t make a trend.
Thanks Doc. I appreciate your clarification.
All I know is silver is still a buy on the monthly and so is gold.
Don’t quite understand why the ‘technicals’ are clearly wrong, people keep referring to technicals, still waiting for gold at $1050, ummm
you cant have it both ways, either ‘technicals’ work or they don’t
pattern changes reflect what happened, they go against ‘technicals’, therefore technicals are not predictive, I will shut up now
They seem to work for awhile, then they “break” after awhile they start working again.
Ive noticed that over the years, it doesnt seem to matter what kind of technicals a person uses.
Just my obsevation.
I figure they work well enuff long enuff to make enuff cash to overcome the losses of the times they mess up.
Just a guess of course.
But technical guys have been around here long enuff to go completely broke if they didnt work at least sometimes. lol
Since we still hear from them I bet they’re not busted.
Yes I agree, I just get annoyed ‘techies’ don’t seem to acknowledge that there are breaks to the theory, thanks b
The charts have served me extraordinarily well since the January low. No approach is 100% but most failures are due to the technician, not the “technicals” themselves. Not even the best technicians can read every setup correctly every time; so we can’t conclude that the technical clues are sometimes absent or wrong.
Thanks, Matthew, I agree no approach can be 100%, I must say I’m not so sure all the failures are due to the technician, I think sometimes the weight of outside events override any technical pattern
Thats a good one Mathew, I recall reading rune stones and tarot cards,tea leaves and such, they were never wrong, I just read them wrong. lol
Charts are a little different, B. We’re talking about a picture that was formed by the actions of all market participants. Effects have causes.
Doc:
Does your ‘change in pattern’ signify a ‘back up the truck’ or wait for dips? I’m kinda lost listening to your daily comments. Personally, not interested in actual bottoms but getting positioned for the long pull! Possibly Cory’s final comments answered this question. Thanks.
Silver, I purchased a stock I haven’t owned today based on some technicals for that specific stock and also added a “tad” to one I own. However, I’m not adding significantly right now because I believe a pullback is in the offing for the PMs and a number of PM stocks. When they pullback to positions I expect, I’ll add a little more exuberantly. The change in patterns that have been occuring are signifying to me that there is a change going on in the investment sectors and I feel this bodes well for the PMs and stocks. Like I said, I’m waiting for a pullback soon and then I’ll add significantly more on that pullback. I hope this helps.
Thank you for the response that helps clarify. Good luck.
AXU rose another nine cents (6.62%) to $1.45 in after hours trading today. That is a good sign.
And this is a great sign:
And so is this:
$1.45 happens to be the 200 week moving average for AXU…
The Loonie held up well today…
At least 96.xx seems in the bag for the yen…
The XAU took out its May high by three cents today…
Whether oil takes a little break soon or not, it looks very good overall…
Here’s the 10 year US Treasury Note priced in gold for those who can view a monthly chart…
Perspective is everything.
The dollar (UUP) is hanging on by its finger nails…
Copper reversed precisely where expected (for now, at least)…
Gold reversed sharply (bullishly) from the 382 Fibonacci retracement level and the median line fork support…
That reversal also happened to be at the 50% Fibonacci fan line…
…it was also support provided by the top of a three year price channel…
It’s interesting to see the price action engage a fork that I was using almost a year ago…
Two more gold forks…
Fibonacci fan breakout…
Hey guys!
Been lurking around and enjoying many post. In the next 6 months to 12 months we should have a more clear direction of everything. Everyone I’ve talked to lately has mentioned they have remortgaged there home to pay bills/debts etc. Many have wiped out there profits to stay a float. How much longer can this Canadian housing market continue? Everyone is clawing and pinching on debt.
Matt I sent you an email thanks in advance.
Glen, now the Canadian banks are warning about Toronto and Vancouver’s housing market, also our finance minister Morneau is chiming in about this situation; I guess people are maxed to the hilt with lines of credit taken out on their supposed housing gains. ( chuckle, chuckle )
Just wait till the real hammer drops and interest rates go up, not a pretty site. People are their own worst enemy, they refuse to look down the road at what is happening, they will just have to learn the hard way. The banks and the realtors are setting themselves up so they can say, “We told you so.”
Here are some numbers to consider.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/money-supply-m3
Canada Money Supply M3 1970-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
Money Supply M3 in Canada increased to 2,118,028 CAD x Million in April 2016
$2,118,028,000,000/77oz of gold = $27,506,857,142.86 CAD /oz of gold at bank of Canada.
Hi Doc,
Thanks for answering my last question. If you dont mind. I have another.
Right now, it looks to me like gold could possibly be forming a right shoulder.
– if that were the case, we could drop down to a point where we could work on a right shoulder of a larger inverted head and shoulder pattern. Any thoughts on this?
I remember you didnt buy into the last head and shoulders formation, but instead expected another leg higher. Im guessing that you were lookinv at the weekly macd and adx to guide you at that point as i can see the were trending up
Any insight you can provide would be appreciated.
On a side note – I find it interesting that you current max upside target for this current move matches one provided by Don Corleone over the weekend.