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Doc’s views on how the markets will react to Brexit

June 22, 2016

We have heard from pretty much everyone else but now it is Doc’s time to share his thoughts on how markets will react when the Brexit vote is over. We cover the US markets, gold, US dollar and even the base metals.

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Discussion
35 Comments
    Jun 22, 2016 22:55 AM

    INDEPENDANCE DAY! Latest polls have Brexit ahead

      Jun 22, 2016 22:20 AM

      If The EU threatened to take away their cell phones unless they voted to join, the public at large which knows little and cares less about what is happening behind the scenes would immediately vote YES for The European Union. Most of the public would be lost if they couldn’t spend 7.5 hours a day texting, talking, and playing games.

    Jun 22, 2016 22:02 AM

    PLEASE PLEASE VOTE…we’re almost there

      Jun 22, 2016 22:08 AM

      I hope you’re right. Channel 4 says we’re running neck and neck.

        Jun 22, 2016 22:29 AM

        Whenever the consensus view on this site is either for or against any given topic the group is virtually ALWAYS wrong. That’s how it was with the local conclusion about the Fed’s first rate hike, the end of Taper, the conclusion of QE, a Greek separation from the Eurozone and so many other subjects.

        Why the majority is usually wrong is unknown. Maybe its the gold bug mindset.

        So when you guys all support Brexit then that is nearly an ironclad guarantee the Remain side will win and I can therefore bet accordingly because you guys are the near perfect contrary indicator on policy and electoral issues.

        PS:…..Hillary will take the White House (sorry!!!!)

          Jun 22, 2016 22:40 PM

          BM…why do you connect anything you disagree with as “the gold bug mindset”?

    Jun 22, 2016 22:05 AM

    I am in favour of nationalism and ethno-states. If the Banksters and their friends don’t like it they can always form their own ethno-states based on their own ethnicity and customs. Examples: Israel, The city of London ect.

    Jun 22, 2016 22:08 AM

    Where do I vote?

    Jun 22, 2016 22:10 AM

    And down the stretch they come!

    Neck and neck.

    Leave on the rail, remain on the outside.

    It’s too close to call. A head bob at the wire.

    It could either way, a dead heat.

    Hold all tickets.

    B
    Jun 22, 2016 22:11 AM

    https://youtu.be/Mg7FVnI2Y3Y

    This is testemony that votes are rigged. (NASA computer programer under oath)

    Maybe bookies favour staying because they’ve seen this.

    Jun 22, 2016 22:23 AM

    Hi Doc,
    Gotta ask – what do you expect GDX &GDXJ will move down to? There seems to be an aweful lot of support showing up here at the 200 week sma. TIA as always.

    Also, Charster – I know you have been saying you expect big moves down this summer, but the way miners are acting doesnt seem support this currently (based on the weak move down yesterday). Do you have a chart you can put up? Would be interested to see what you are watching.

      Jun 22, 2016 22:57 PM

      DF; the odds are very good that we see about 23 for GDX and 34 for GDXJ—then we’ll see what the charts are signalling.

      Jun 22, 2016 22:41 PM

      Doc Fan,
      It is interesting that the the metals are leading the PM stocks. I still think PMs and miners are getting hit for a few months. The thing to watch is the equity markets, they could take the miners with them when they start the decline. But I doubt the mining stocks are getting wiped out like the conventional markets will. I’m hoping for a nice fall rally in the mining sector. And the beginning of the bull…

    CFS
    Jun 22, 2016 22:29 AM

    You do realize that up to date British voting technology involves marking an X on a piece of paper in a booth, folding the paper , coming out of the booth and placing the paper in a slot in the ballot box.
    The pieces of paper are then sorted and counted in open view, with pro and anti parties present to ensure no rigging.
    The problem will come if the vote is in favour of Brexit, when/if the party in power under Cameron attempts to scuttle exit negotiations, or decides the vote was “too” close and stalls the exit which is supposed under article 50 to take up to 2 years.
    (And I don’t understand how an exit negotiation can occur if one side refuses to negotiate. e.g. what happens if the EU negotiatiators refuse a trade agreement, refuse all concessions to the UK and the idiots in Scotland are screaming they want to stay in the EU or the Northern Irish?
    What if the EU saysthat the EU fishing fleets must still be allowed to fish British waters?
    You think the EU Court will side with the U.K.?

      Jun 22, 2016 22:30 AM

      If the UK votes for Brexit Cameron will be gone within 24 hours.

        Jun 22, 2016 22:32 AM

        Ha! Good one Bob (but I really doubt it….he is a political animal after all).

          Jun 22, 2016 22:38 AM

          It does not work like that Birdman.

          He will be expected to do the honourable thing and fall on his sword. If he does not resign within 24 hours he will face a vote of no confidence in Parliament within days, which he would then lose, and he would be forced out.

            Jun 22, 2016 22:54 AM

            It is similar to the Canadian system Bob.

            But first, is a vote of non confidence really being contemplated? And even if one is held there needs to be a sufficient number of votes to cause the government to fall. Note that I did not say David Cameron because a non confidence vote will determine the future of the governing party and I don’t think there is going to be enough members to carry that even if they wanted too.

            So yeah….Cameron will still be there.

            Jun 22, 2016 22:56 AM

            No British PM is going to lose a referendum and expect to stay in the job. Not going to happen.

            Jun 22, 2016 22:09 PM

            He leads a majority government. It will be at his discretion whether he tenders a resignation or not or perhaps is pushed out by his own party. But you did use the words non-confidence vote” and that refers to the government falling, not just the leader. If such a vote were held the government would prevail with its majority.

            Anyway, no need to bicker. He is not going to lose.

            CFS
            Jun 22, 2016 22:37 PM

            Birdman, the Prime Minister is an elected position within the Conservative party.
            This position can be challenged, independently of any resignation.
            “For the good of the party” Cameron will act, but not resign as an MP.
            He has already said he will not stand for re-election in 2020.
            The previously obvious replacement for Cameron is Osbourne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, but that would not work for a leave win.
            Cameron will probably choose to preside over a Brexit Committee to negotiate the exit. Whether the party would go for that is questionable.
            With the majority of Scots wanting remain, that is another problem,

            Friday Is going to be interesting.

      Jun 22, 2016 22:31 AM

      Why would the UK respect any EU decision if it was no longer a member?

      B
      Jun 22, 2016 22:39 PM

      I didnt know that cfs.
      So much for rigged counting machines.

    AJ
    Jun 22, 2016 22:38 AM

    I liked this compelling argument on future trading deals
    https://amp.twimg.com/v/145d0e53-3c51-45e9-8d80-79f6e7cfcb45

    Switzerland did a trade deal with China opening their market in exchange for opening China’s market in 15 years. Where is the bargaining power for the UK after Brexit??

    I didn’t realize the UK wasn’t an independent nation btw

      CFS
      Jun 22, 2016 22:40 PM

      You don’t have to have a “trade deal” to trade.

    AJ
    Jun 22, 2016 22:48 AM
    cmc
    Jun 22, 2016 22:13 PM

    The establishment wants no brexit. Therefore, there will be no brexit.

      Jun 22, 2016 22:21 PM

      Apparently, half the UK public does not want to exit either. If there was really so much resentment in the UK to membership there should be a huge majority on the exit side. The only place I see a majority trumpeting departure is on the gold blog sites!

      Tells me all I really need to know.

        Jun 22, 2016 22:17 PM

        wow that is a weird statement, so how much resentment do you need, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%. OK so it doesn’t count if its below what resentment?

          Jun 22, 2016 22:50 PM

          Of course it doesn’t count. Its majority rules so sour grapes and gripes get tossed out along with opinions and objections on voting day. Only one side gets too win although I am certain both camps have vigorous arguments in their own favour.

          The vote is purely emotional anyway. Look how polls change daily based on events like the MP who was shot. So if we only count the rational actors and discount those who change their minds with the daily mood it seems Bremain would win by a large margin.

    cmc
    Jun 22, 2016 22:32 PM

    The establishment’s media had a tight influence over how people view brexit. Not everyone is affected, but most are. Most may have resentment, but when it comes to scare tactics over the security of their government bennies they think twice.

    Jun 22, 2016 22:15 PM

    I predict that the Mc-jobs report is going to surprise to the upside and gold is gonna get hit. Follow that up with a July rate hike then you gets $1180 gold or lower. I would love to see a good cleaning of the excess froth before autumn.
    Remember those 38,000 telcome jobs were not included in the last JR because they were on strike. Those folks are back at work and will be counted.

      Jun 22, 2016 22:46 PM

      Confused…now I’m confused…why are striking workers eliminated from the JR. they still have a job and are being paid by the union..why would they be eliminated from the report until they are terminated by the company?

        Jun 23, 2016 23:20 AM

        Gator,
        I lifted this info directly from the U.S.Department of Labour webesite from their
        “Establishment Survey Data”. About half way down the summary page I found this paragraph then checked out Table B-1:
        “Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+38,000). Job growth
        occurred in health care. Mining continued to lose jobs, and a STRIKE resulted
        in job losses in information. (See table B-1.)”
        Gator go to the table and see for yourself. There is a -37,200 Jobs in the Telecommunications section. I believe that number is the striking workers. They will be added to the next jobs report.
        http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

    Jun 22, 2016 22:39 PM

    Gold Lower Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market

    http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-lower-despite-panic-due-to-supply-issues-in-inter-bank-gold-market/