Investors are hedging their bets heading into the Brexit vote
Doc wraps up the markets with us discussing the bump we saw today in volatility. Considering that the markets did not experience a significant fall today investors are deciding to leave their money in stocks and take a hedge in terms of volatility. We also take a look at the buy in gold stocks when gold is sideways at best.
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Doc and Matthew, Have you ever looked into Novo Resources NSRPF? The last time I asked, you had not. Vote for Brexit!
Bonzo, watch PPP move down to its’ daily chart lower BB—I’ll purchase a little more there. Not investment advice.
Thanks, Doc. I would like to add to my PPP position. Can you tell me where its lower BB is now?
Bonzo, I don’t know about the technicals of Novo but on the daily it’s starting to look like a buy—you probably can wait until after brexit and the fall of gold to see if pricing drops further.
Bonzo—I would correct that “I don’t know about the fundamentals about the stock” but the technicals look promising.
Thanks, Doc. We need a geologist to look at the fundamentals of NSRPF and to tell us what he thinks about the theories they are using. If they work out, NSRPF might own another huge South African type reef system.
I’ve been in Novo for 3 or 4 years and it seems to be range bound between the 1.00 and .50 mark. It recently headed up to the 1.20ish mark, but has turned down since. It hit 1.35ish about 2-3 years ago on news that had no follow through. I like the story but until the story catches fire, I will continue to trade in and out, holding a core position. Rinse and repeat.
Prolly good that the exit will lose because if by a miracle it won and was implemented when the EU implodes the exiters would be blamed.
Let Remain win and Great Britain won’t even be Mediocre Britain.
Keep your powder dry tomorrow could be buy the news instead of buy the rumor sell the news. DT
After careful consideration I am betting on leave.
However how markets react to this is known at all.
The conventional wisdom could be totally wrong.
The German government is behind building The EU, they have felt denied after two lost World Wars. Tomorrow will be Britain’s finest hour if they reject German hegemony. Make no mistake, Germany is the only country in Europe that can call the shots, France, Belgium, or any of the other countries do not have the means to forge this alliance. Germany does not want to be denied it’s place in the sun. If it walks and talks like a duck, guess what?
Forget what is at stake look at who is calling the shots, after two World Wars wake up, Britain is alone again and this is worse then September 1940 when The Battle Of Britain was raging. DT
Didn’t the powers that be do everything in their power to keep this vote from even occurring?
If Cameron had not promised a referendum vote at the last election, there would not have been a majority party at the last election. UKIP was gaining ground, Conservatives and Labour would have split the a majority of votes, Liberal Democrats get up to 25% and Greens always get a certain small percentage. (In England)
In Scotland and Wales, localized parties have been winning.
Prior to the referendum promise it looked like the UK was heading for endless coalitions, like Italy, and unstable Government.
It is still possible the UK will end up a mess of multiple parties, with no majority.
This is an interesting read.
http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/brexit-global-trigger-event-fake-out-or-something-else.html
Chartster sir, would you comment on yesterday’s market wrap. thanks
Here’s an interesting tidbit from KWN: Wells Fargo: What Does Brexit Mean For U.S. Markets? “To be sure, the British government isn’t REQUIRED TO ACT on a successful vote for Brexit; the referendum is merely ADVISORY and not mandatory. And David Cameron, the U.K.’s prime minister, is an opponent of the Brexit proposal so one can expect that he will use every means necessary to keep Britain in the European fold.”
Exactly. The government can take the case back to the people through an election. Cameron would tender the governments resignation in that case and would mount a campaign to return to power based on not leaving the EU. Should that succeed its case closed…no exit. Even if it failed, the new government could refuse to act if they felt it was not in the national interest to follow through on the divorce implied by the Brexit vote.
You don’t understand the mood of the people or possible reaction if any government tried to not follow through after a vote to leave.
The population is p*ssed off at the large non-assimilating influx of immigrants.
If Cameron starts playing tricks, UKIP could win the next election and deportations could start regardless of EU court rulings.
So many false assumptions CFS. It does not work like that though. There are a million and one variables between here and there that will make your linear conclusions sound like wild speculation after the fact. Have we learned nothing on this site? Whenever we think “A” will happen we get “B” instead. Just look at any given stock chart as an example. You think you know what will happen based on a set up or pattern but instead you get the opposite. Hell, even the experts cannot agree on what will happen with gold from one day to the next and that’s just a 50/50 coin toss so it should have been easy. And as far as the mood of the people goes what i have learned during my life is that most are emotional sheep that can be herded in pretty much any desired direction if you can keep them in a group. Meanwhile the few noisy malcontents do not represent the voice of the people so much as thier own desire to seize power and that’s why they have been unable to sway enough of the vote to exceed the 50% threshold. So yeah, i do understand. This is mostly noise in the big picture. No big change is coming. And in three months we will all have forgotten the details as we move on to the next smoke screen drama in the world of economics.
Thank you, Birdman.
“It does not work like that though. There are a million and one variables between here and there that will make your linear conclusions sound like wild speculation after the fact. Have we learned nothing on this site? Whenever we think “A” will happen we get “B” instead. Just look at any given stock chart as an example. You think you know what will happen based on a set up or pattern but instead you get the opposite. Hell, even the experts cannot agree on what will happen with gold from one day to the next and that’s just a 50/50 coin toss so it should have been easy.”
Probably a lot of truth in this.
“And as far as the mood of the people goes what i have learned during my life is that most are emotional sheep that can be herded in pretty much any desired direction if you can keep them in a group. Meanwhile the few noisy malcontents do not represent the voice of the people so much as thier own desire to seize power and that’s why they have been unable to sway enough of the vote to exceed the 50% threshold.”
Not convincing.
“This is mostly noise in the big picture. No big change is coming. And in three months we will all have forgotten the details as we move on to the next smoke screen drama in the world of economics.”
Good point.
An interesting post that veers from genuine insight to complete bollocks possibly as a result of being carried away by emotion half way through. In itself not a bad thing but a little more intellectual or creative discipline would have led to a more convincing finished product. A promising effort 67/100. Well done.
As it happens my specialty is bollocks. The insight came purely by accident.
Are you English btw?
“As it happens my specialty is bollocks. The insight came purely by accident.”
That’s how it is with me, too. I wonder if it’s the same with everybody.
Yes – English. Sorry. Near Canterbury where I am currently archbishop.
+1
Seriously – and the above isn’t serious nor malicious and if it raised a smile for it’s sheer bloody cheek then it has done it’s job – there are are some very, very interesting posts on this subject but what comes across is that it looks a lot different from North America than it does on the streets in the UK.
Speaking for myself – as opposed to taking it for granted that God must agree with me – I am 100% in agreement with your comments about so-called experts being wrong and B happening when A is supposed to. It’s probably fair to say that’s my experience, too. I wonder if there is also a lesson in this on the importance of perspective.
Arbitrage in Calico Resources (CVXHF) versus the .07 per share exchange rate into Paramount Gold (PZG) during their merger.
Matthew had posted an article earlier this week from Jayant Bhandari, where he pointed out this arbitrage and I’ve been watching it all week. I finally started nibbling at Calico this week to play that arbitrage, but I keep buying direct channel on the Canadian exchange under the symbol (CKB.V) due to the very low volumes in the OTC.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this arbitrage??
Currently Paramount Gold (PZG) is trading at $1.51. So multiplied by .07 = $.1057 per Calico Resources (CVXHF) share. I’ve been acquiring shares at $.083-$.086.
—> Anyone have any insights?
—> Am I crazy or is Jayant Bhandari pointing out a huge disconnect?
Here is the passage from his article again from earlier in the week:
________________________________________________________________________
“….Also, look at a merger between Paramount Gold Nevada (NYSE:PZG) and Calico Resources (CKB; $0.115). I will leave you to do the numbers, but there is an arbitrage upside in owning CKB.”
Here is the press release detailing the merger in process between Calico and Paramount.
__________________________________________________________________________
Paramount Gold Nevada Corp. Sets Date for Special Meeting of Stockholders Pursuant to Its Pending Acquisition of Calico Resources Corp.
WINNEMUCCA, NEVADA–(Marketwired – May 23, 2016)
“….Pursuant to the Plan of Arrangement, Paramount will acquire each common share of Calico from Calico’s shareholders in exchange for 0.07 of a share of Paramount common stock.”
To add to the confusion, I guess what is throwing me off is the .07 per share of Paramount Gold (PZG) is a US company priced in dollars and Calico is a Canadian listed company. Even with a currency exchange, it would still be .07 x PZG (currently at $1.55) = $.1085 US per share valuation. That would make the proper value for the OTC (CVXHF) $.1085 per share, and the proper value for the Canadian listed (CKB.V) $.1384 Canadian ($.1085 x 1.2756 exchange rate).
Right?
New Liberty Gold Mine: Update on the Recommencement of Processing Operations (AUREUS MINING)
TORONTO, June 23, 2016 /CNW/ – Aureus Mining Inc., the TSX (AUE.TO) and AIM (AUE.L) (OTC: ARSMF) listed West African gold producer, is pleased to announce the approval by the Ministry of Lands, Mines and Energy for the plant start up process at the New Liberty Gold Mine in Liberia.
Highlights:
Approval granted by the MLME for the commencement of the plant start up process;
A larger gravity screen has been installed with the aim of optimising performance and increasing gravity gold recovery;
The detoxification circuit has been upgraded and reagent dosing optimised;
Operational changes have been made to the tailings storage facility (“TSF”) which aims to increase tailings water retention time;
A full ball mill reline and lifter upgrade has been undertaken prior to plant restart;
The plant restart procedure includes the gradual ramp up in operations from low grade (< 2 g/t Au) ore and a controlled increase towards run of mine ("ROM") grade ore;
Mining operations continued throughout the plant stoppage with the current ROM ore stockpile balance of approximately 122,186 tonnes at a grade of 3.88 g/t Au;
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Aura Minerals Announces the Completion of the Acquisition of Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique Project in Brazil and NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimates
TORONTO, ON–(Marketwired – June 23, 2016
“…The Lavrinha open pit and the Ernesto underground deposit are located approximately 60 kilometers (“km”) south of the Company’s Sao Francisco mine and 12 km south of the town of Pontes e Lacerda. These two deposits are within close proximity to the Project’s processing plant.
The Pau-a-Pique underground mine has been on care and maintenance since 2013 and is located approximately 40 km south of the Ernesto and Lavrinha deposits and processing plant.
The three additional areas (Nosde, Japones and Pombihnas) are within 20 km of the processing plant.
The processing plant is centrally located to these deposits and additional areas and has a capacity of 3,000 tonnes per day through a conventional carbon-in-leach process. The facility includes crushing, milling, gold extraction/recovery and a tailings disposal facility with power supplied from the national grid. Significant infrastructure exists around the entire Project including paved roadways between all of the deposits and the town of Pontes e Lacerda.
The Company’s primary technical focus areas for the Project restart will be grade control, choice of the proper selective mining methods, geotechnical optimization to reduce dilution, improve overall gold recovery and lower cash operating costs at this relatively high grade Project…”
“…Jim Bannantine, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer stated, “Aura has met its operating cost and gold production targets at its San Andres and Sao Francisco mines during the first quarter of 2016 and is extremely well placed for the absorption of the Ernesto / Pau-a-Pique Project (the “EPP Project”) into the Company particularly given the location of the Project in Mato Grosso and the associated synergies with the Company’s Sao Francisco mine. We are confident that we can restart the EPP Project as a positive cash flowing mine in the second half of 2016 to replace Sao Francisco when it ceases mining operations and expect to update the market shortly on the completion of that transaction.”
Nevsun Resources Closes Reservoir Acquisition Creating A Diversified Mid-Tier Base Metal Company
VANCOUVER, June 23, 2016
It is getting busy in the PM space with all these acquisitions, mergers, and asset sales……
Apparently many companies see now as the time to go shopping for the companies on their wish lists…… so I’m starting to do the same and add to positions or start new positions in stocks that are still undervalued compared to their peers.
See my earlier comments.