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Estimated timing of the Brexit polls closing and results tallied

June 23, 2016

Since the Brexit vote is on everyone’s mind I thought it would be good to post the timing of polls closing and results tallied. Here is the rough estimate…

Time (U.S. Eastern in parenthesis) Event
7 a.m. (2.a.m.) Polling stations open
10 p.m. (5 p.m.) Polling stations close, no exit polls
Around 11:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m.) First announcements on voter turnout
12:30 a.m. (7:30 p.m.) Results expected for first counting areas
3-4 a.m. (10-11 p.m.) Results from half of the counting areas are in
Around 5 a.m. (midnight) About 80% of counting areas have reported results
7 a.m. (2 a.m.) All votes are likely to have been counted and the official result is expected shortly after.

 

Discussion
57 Comments
    Jun 23, 2016 23:25 AM

    In 32 years of voting I have never had to queue to vote before.

    The turnout if probably going to be the biggest in British post-WW2 history.

      Jun 23, 2016 23:58 AM

      Maybe it’s the first time there’s something to vote for.

        Jun 23, 2016 23:24 AM

        Yep, seems that way.

          Jun 23, 2016 23:45 PM

          Bob….I voted in the afternoon, I had a quick word with the three ladies running the vote they told me it has been very busy. One of them said she had been doing it for five years, & she said it was busiest vote she has ever seen.

    CFS
    Jun 23, 2016 23:44 AM

    There is a news black-out in the UK about exit poles etc.
    There is no such black-out in France.
    Rtf.fr, info and the business radio channel are saying so far remain is likely, although postal vote count is not known.
    http://www.ecouterradioenligne.com/mobile/bfm-strasbourg/

      Jun 23, 2016 23:25 AM

      There is no news black out in the UK about exit polls.

      It is just that any exit polls will be inaccurate unless you can compare it accurately with the 1974 poll – and that is impossible.

        CFS
        Jun 23, 2016 23:40 AM

        Where are they being reported then?
        I’ve tried BBC 4, LBC, Capital radio, but have not heard anything about results.

          CFS
          Jun 23, 2016 23:07 AM

          French radio is reporting a stay win by over 2%, although saying there are problems in London with Long lines and water . Flooding?

          Jun 23, 2016 23:48 PM

          CFS…For some reason there are no exit polls being carried out for this vote.

            Jun 23, 2016 23:56 PM

            CFS…We had a huge storm over the south east of England, lots of floods & four polling stations closed….The met office claims that there were 70.000 lightening strikes, about 7.000 every hour, I know there was a great display over Hastings where I live.

      Jun 23, 2016 23:15 AM

      merci

    CFS
    Jun 23, 2016 23:46 AM

    My iPad gremlin attacks again…..RTL.FR

      Jun 23, 2016 23:42 AM

      Thought you meant ROTFL. Thanks for clearing that up. 🙂

    CFS
    Jun 23, 2016 23:48 AM

    And I was hoping to exploit a large knock-down in gold/silver tomorrow to top up my PM SHARES,

    CFS
    Jun 23, 2016 23:00 AM

    All European stock markets now up over 1%

      Jun 23, 2016 23:55 AM

      Crude up….stocks up. You just need to know which buttons to push at HQ to make it all happen, CFS.

      Jun 23, 2016 23:03 AM

      By the way, the markets are already putting in topping candles on the hourly charts. For example DAX and Eurostoxx were not able to break above their May highs (yet) this morning so this rally is still a little suspect until there is follow through that amounts to more than just posting a lower high.

        CFS
        Jun 23, 2016 23:10 AM

        I was just looking for a localized buying opportunity, which may not materialize.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:12 AM

    Nothing to see here.

    Everything priced in.

    Turn the page.

    The FED never being able to raise interest rates again is much more important.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:52 AM

    Gold price volatility showing higher. I presume this also means higher prices, but you can get wild swings within a certain range. The gold price decline before the EU referendum vote suggests this is too important to allow the gold price to indicate the outcome:

    http://schrts.co/PTm5d0

      Jun 23, 2016 23:26 PM

      For sure.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:54 AM

    Well, the Yen is taking it on the chin today as I suspected so gold is off a little this morning to start the day and should continue on that path as Yen likely has more than another nickel to go before it bottoms. So don’t bother watching the Euro rise and expecting a positive result for gold. That linkage won’t work under these circumstances. Kind of funny that both euro and sterling are both up together though (at the expense of dollars). Its a win-win all round as far as the market is concerned. Not likely anyone will see a currency crash as a result of the vote. The mood looks upbeat to me….not a concern in the air.

      CFS
      Jun 23, 2016 23:25 AM

      Thanks, Chartster, as a person also with a D. PHIL (Oxon) and who actually was a tutor in Oxford, I agree with that post.
      But I don’ t underestimate the power of scaremongery or a convenient murder to exploit.
      I fear the stupid pro-remainders will not even realize their mistake.
      Luckily for them, a remain vote will probably only delay the collapse of the EU.
      Unluckily for them, the excessive immigration will have immutably changed Europe and not for the better.
      I fail to understand how a society can choose to destroy its culture by advocating immigrants that oppose assimilation.

        Jun 23, 2016 23:39 AM

        Unfortunately Britain’s immigration policies are a direct result of imperialism and at some point you must pay the piper, the same thing holds true for The US.

          Jun 23, 2016 23:11 AM

          really?

    Jun 23, 2016 23:38 AM

    Ditto to Chartster! Mind you I didn’t need any more info to be at the front of queue to vote OUT first thing this a.m!
    I agree too CFS – How a whole society or at least half of it can even countenance voting for such a monstrosity beggars belief. But then the fear agenda was seamlessly allowed to morph into the grief agenda over the murder of Jo Cox.
    Still holding our breath at this end.

      Jun 23, 2016 23:41 AM

      “But then the fear agenda was seamlessly allowed to morph into the grief agenda over the murder of Jo Cox.”

      Which branded the case for Brexit as racist and with it half the population.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:50 AM

    a real snooze

    nothing to see here

    turn the page

    Jun 23, 2016 23:04 AM

    Arbitrage in Calico Resources (CVXHF) versus the .07 per share exchange rate into Paramount Gold (PZG) during their merger.

    Matthew had posted an article earlier this week from Jayant Bhandari, where he pointed out this arbitrage and I’ve been watching it all week. I finally started nibbling at Calico this week to play that arbitrage, but I keep buying direct channel on the Canadian exchange under the symbol (CKB.V) due to the very low volumes in the OTC.

    Does anyone have any thoughts on this arbitrage??

    Currently Paramount Gold (PZG) is trading at $1.51. So multiplied by .07 = $.1057 per Calico Resources (CVXHF) share. I’ve been acquiring shares at $.083-$.086.

    —> Anyone have any insights?

    —> Am I crazy or is Jayant Bhandari pointing out a huge disconnect?

    Here is the passage from his article again from earlier in the week:
    ________________________________________________________________________

    “….Also, look at a merger between Paramount Gold Nevada (NYSE:PZG) and Calico Resources (CKB; $0.115). I will leave you to do the numbers, but there is an arbitrage upside in owning CKB.”

    http://www.jayantbhandari.com/downloads/musings12.htm

    CFS
    Jun 23, 2016 23:38 AM

    It is possible that Paramount Gold share price is higher than it should be because of idiots who did not know the difference between Paramount Resources and Paramount Gold.
    POU.TO had a large jump recently, if I remember correctly.

      Jun 23, 2016 23:47 AM

      To add to the confusion, I guess what is throwing me off is the .07 per share of Paramount Gold (PZG) is a US company priced in dollars and Calico is a Canadian listed company. Even with a currency exchange, it would still be .07 x PZG (currently at $1.55) = $.1085 US per share valuation. That would make the proper value for the OTC (CVXHF) $.1085 per share, and the proper value for the Canadian listed (CKB.V) $.1384 Canadian ($.1085 x 1.2756 exchange rate).

      Right?

        CFS
        Jun 23, 2016 23:52 AM

        Trading was also halted for a while for Coral and that can mess with price for low volume companies.

          Jun 23, 2016 23:58 AM

          Agreed. I was looking at getting in on the Coral Gold trade when the news first broke but it took off and is harder to value because it is not a share acquisition with a fixed ratio. Barrick is buying their asset so there is the cash consideration, the Net Smelter Royalty value, and the what is Coral Gold going to next wildcard.

          With the Paramount/Calico merger is a ratio based on where PZG is trading, so it seems more straight-forward on where the share price should be.

          When I saw Jayant had picked up on this it piqued my interest and is why I try to check out the articles people post here on KER. You never know what you may stumble across….

          Cheers.

            CFS
            Jun 23, 2016 23:49 AM

            Oops. I’m even an idiot who mixed coral and calico.

            Wonder f that gives me a chalky thread, or just being flaky.

            Jun 23, 2016 23:12 AM

            no worries. There are a lot of acquisitions and those bother are small explorations companies starting with “C”.

            The mergers & acquisitions business is definitely picking up. I posted on the market wrap about Aura Minerals (not Aura Silver 😉 ) is acquiring the rnesto/Pau-a-Pique Project in Brazil. Many investors don’t even realize that Aura Minerals is a gold & copper producer, operating in Honduras, Brazil, and Mexico. This acquisition has synergies with their already production mine in Brazil.

            Then there was the finalization of the Nevsun & Reservoir deal today.

            Busy busy…..

            Jun 23, 2016 23:13 AM

            both ….not bother…..

            Jun 23, 2016 23:15 AM

            Here was a quote from last month regarding the Aura Mineral acquisition of the EPP Project.

            “…Jim Bannantine, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer stated, “Aura has met its operating cost and gold production targets at its San Andres and Sao Francisco mines during the first quarter of 2016 and is extremely well placed for the absorption of the Ernesto / Pau-a-Pique Project (the “EPP Project”) into the Company particularly given the location of the Project in Mato Grosso and the associated synergies with the Company’s Sao Francisco mine. We are confident that we can restart the EPP Project as a positive cash flowing mine in the second half of 2016 to replace Sao Francisco when it ceases mining operations and expect to update the market shortly on the completion of that transaction.”

            http://www.auraminerals.com/Investors/News-Events/News-Releases/News-Release-Details/2016/Aura-Minerals-Announces-Q1-2016-Financial-and-Operating-Results-and-Voting-Results-for-the-Election-of-Directors/default.aspx

            Jun 23, 2016 23:17 AM

            Here is the hot news that Aura has successfully completed the acquisition of the EPP Project.

            __________________________________________________________________________

            Aura Minerals Announces the Completion of the Acquisition of Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique Project in Brazil and NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimates
            TORONTO, ON–(Marketwired – June 23, 2016

            “…The Lavrinha open pit and the Ernesto underground deposit are located approximately 60 kilometers (“km”) south of the Company’s Sao Francisco mine and 12 km south of the town of Pontes e Lacerda. These two deposits are within close proximity to the Project’s processing plant.

            The Pau-a-Pique underground mine has been on care and maintenance since 2013 and is located approximately 40 km south of the Ernesto and Lavrinha deposits and processing plant.

            The three additional areas (Nosde, Japones and Pombihnas) are within 20 km of the processing plant.

            The processing plant is centrally located to these deposits and additional areas and has a capacity of 3,000 tonnes per day through a conventional carbon-in-leach process. The facility includes crushing, milling, gold extraction/recovery and a tailings disposal facility with power supplied from the national grid. Significant infrastructure exists around the entire Project including paved roadways between all of the deposits and the town of Pontes e Lacerda.

            The Company’s primary technical focus areas for the Project restart will be grade control, choice of the proper selective mining methods, geotechnical optimization to reduce dilution, improve overall gold recovery and lower cash operating costs at this relatively high grade Project…”

            http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/585-tsx/ora/21431-aura-minerals-announces-the-completion-of-the-acquisition-of-ernesto-pau-a-pique-project-in-brazil-and-ni-43-101-mineral-resource-estimates.html

        Jun 23, 2016 23:24 AM

        Cory – Is there a way to shoot Jayant an email to see if the calculation above is correct?

    Jun 23, 2016 23:39 AM

    Here is a little fun quiz whilst we are waiting.

    http://howmanyrefugees.com

    Jun 23, 2016 23:58 AM

    The people who vote against Brexit do not have the right to take away the freedom of those who vote for it, and make them serfs to the tyrants in Brussels. If there had been a vote in 1776 the Loyalists might have won, but the Sons of Liberty armed themselves and drove the loyalists out to Canada or back to Britain or the West Indies. If Brexit loses its supporters should arm themselves, rise up like the Sons of Liberty did, and drive the “In” traitors out of the country, to Canada or France or Belgium. FREEDOM!

      B
      Jun 23, 2016 23:57 AM

      They would be crushed Bonzo.
      Face it, people like being controlled. I figure its because they dont like to think, they see it as easier to have someone else think for them.

      As George Carlin said, “Last thing they want is anylitical or critical thinking”
      I guess he was talking about the people themselves too.

        Jun 23, 2016 23:09 AM

        I read the Queen and some top generals are for Brexit, and I’m sure about half of the armed forces are too. Maybe the freedom lovers could win. Brexit would surely win but for the Muslim vote that wants to flood the country with more muslims and take over.

          Jun 23, 2016 23:40 AM

          BB – you’re right I believe. In that if the vote is kept in favour of the EU say 51-49 GB will be a very restless country. There is real resentment in the north (of England that is) where the north-south divide is still very marked. Furthermore the Tory party won’t ever mend this divide; traitors so-called being regarded as a Trojan horse. It would seem too that Her Majesty does have an opinion on this asking some dinner guests to give three good reasons why we should stay in. Apparently they could come up with none.
          For myself I’m quite sanguine if the remain campaign wins. The very notion of a Brexit has set the cat among the pigeons. Furthermore, it’ll be Cameron and his cronies who carry the can when the inevitable happens and the SHTF.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:29 AM

    Cory,
    Thanks for the Brexit schedule.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:47 AM

    My son tells me that BBC Radio 5 Live are reporting that feedback from the polling stations is that Remain turnout is high.

    I thought there was supposed to be no reporting of exit polls during voting.

      Jun 23, 2016 23:04 AM

      I think Five live has given up any pretence of neutrality IMPO. They have been reporting about Jo Cox all day. Her tragic death has been politicised for the Remain campaign.

    CFS
    Jun 23, 2016 23:51 AM

    Five live is mostly opinion/discussions. Usually anecdotal stuff.

    Jun 23, 2016 23:43 AM

    Taking a sleeping pill tonight. C’est sera!!

    Jun 23, 2016 23:21 PM

    7:20 pm EST

    The first results are in and “Leave” is doing several percentage points better than expected.

    Gold spiking UP

    Oh boy, is this going to be an interesting evening.

    (Howdy Matt and Shad !)

    Jun 23, 2016 23:35 PM

    And I’ve woken up refreshed and full of joy!!!!!!