Here is an interesting take on the Weekly Market Close
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
There is so much more to these markets than just the numbers!
Agreed, CFS
I pray that a British version of the Tea Party now develops in the UK to restore Capitalism and lead them out of their Socialist Swamp that destroys free enterprise and invention.
I suspect that we will see yhat.
Britain needs a 2nd amendment.
Crossbows are legal BB: Hope they don’t become the risk to weapon.
Doc, if you are not to busy.
Off topic i guess but,i am watching big dog Cameco,i own some smaller uranium plays ,but i want to buy CCO.TO when it hits bottom,what does your technicals say about Cameco,could it go to 7-10 CAD?
Thanks.
Pete, watch 12.50 —if you have a couple of weeks of close below that price, CCO probably has a lot further to fall. It may get a bounce soon at a price close to 12.50 but I would be very careful at this level.
Thank you Doc,i really appreciate that.
Obama really insulted us in the UK when he said what he said.
I think back to all his ‘Hope’ and ‘Change’ stuff – he got elected because tens of millions of people believed in him. From what I can see he has done nothing for those Americans.
But his arrogance saying what he said to us in the UK really annoyed loads of Brits that I personally know.
Who the hell did he think he was saying that?
Yep. Agreed. The graph for ‘leave’ support went vertical the day after he said that on British television: That finger-wagging stuff doesn’t work well with us.
What I don’t get though, is why TVIX has crawled up only 85c today?!
Shouldn’t that be over $20?!
He has caused of similar movement in other graphs. Not a good president, but a good reader. (Notice that I did not say talker or original thinker!)
I have no time for him.
I bought more Shell and BP at 8 am premarket before the machines kicked in at the open. Shell at near 4.50 less and BP at about $4 less then the last close and they rocketed up (2.58 and 1.88) but Shell gave up half the gain. It helped lessen my losses significantly for the day.
Rick is right on about ACA…. my premiums for the past few years are as follows: 2014 premium = 330/mo, 2015 premium = 367/mo, 2016 premium 440/month. 2017 premiums expected to be over 500 per month…. I have never been sick, never had a claim, and I do not smoke. This health care program is a complete joke!!!
It should be called the UNA – Unaffordable No Care Act.
Obomber, Nancy Blowsi and the rest of the DemoNRats really stuck it to the little people with Obuggercare.
And most doctors and hospitals dread ACA patients due to low re-imbursement, to say nothing of Medicaid patient which Obomber added millions to the rolls.
When history is a bit rew r it ten he will go down as a boon for those who cannot afford to do things on their own.
Eventually O’buggered’s policies will not benefit those who cannot afford to do things on their own. More and more doctors refuse to see Medicaid patients because the re-reimbursement rates are so low.
And what do you think will happen when O’buggered and his ilk add millions more illegal aliens and refuges to the Medicaid rolls.
There currently are no leaders in the US that are competent and fiscally responsible; neither in the executive or legislative branches.
The economic ship of state is rudderless and Yellen is simply in charge of bailing, keeping it afloat, until it flounders on some rocks.
CFS, I think Sen Mike Lee of UT is brilliant.
Hey, Bonzo: bought a “tad” of PPP again today.
At least it’s only a half share warrant….
Primero Mining Corp. (“Primero” or the “Company”) (TSX:P)(NYSE:PPP) is pleased to announce that it has closed its previously announced bought deal financing with a syndicate of underwriters led by BMO Capital Markets and including Scotiabank, TD Securities Inc., RBC Capital Markets and Paradigm Capital Inc. (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company issued 22,022,500 units (the “Units”) of the Company at a price of C$2.35 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds of C$51,752,875 (the “Offering”). The Offering included the Underwriters’ initial agreement to purchase 19,150,000 Units and the exercise in full of the Underwriters’ over-allotment option for an additional 2,872,500 Units.
Each Unit consists of one common share of Primero and one-half of one common share purchase warrant (each whole common share purchase warrant is a “Warrant”) of Primero. Each whole Warrant entitles the holder to acquire one common share of the Corporation at a price of C$3.35 per Common Share until June 25, 2018.
The Warrants will commence trading on the TSX on June 24, 2016 under the symbol “P.WT.C”.
Primero intends to use the net proceeds from the Offering for exploration and development at the Company’s San Dimas and Black Fox mines as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes.
WOW Doc,
looks like you are right again….now the big banks got a piece of the action. Did you see their warrant went up %450 today? TSX: P.WT.C. Me thinks Trudeau might have dropped the Mexican Visa requirement for exploration and mining to remain status quo.
I thought they might have backed away from such a tricky set up. Obviously the insiders and you know the story. Now is it fully de-risked???
He and Ted Cruz have great potential.
Another great video from Christine Hughes. She explains how negative interest rates and willful ignorance from central bankers is driving the global economy into the ground.
http://www.otterwoodcapital.com/blog/the-absurd-concept-of-negative-interest-rates/
It seems to me Ms Hughes analysis is flawed.
1. In highly indebted economies, the central banks have little choice but to minimize interest rates in order to prevent a systemic collapse.
2. The econometric models include movement from bond to stocks, as a consequence of seeking yield.
3. Since the height of the stock market is often considered by the general public as a measure of economic good health, politicians seek to keep stocks high.
I understanding what you are saying but the stock market is not the whole economy. According to the WSJ in 2015, the bond market was about 1 1/2 times larger than the stock market. Your point #3 is only true as long as the general public keeps a shallow outlook and believes what they are told by mainstream media. I don’t think this is true anymore. If people really believed the BS from mainstream media, Trump wouldn’t be so popular and Brexit wouldn’t have won.
So I do agree that some people are being driven into stocks but I don’t think this is necessarily a healthy sign. People are getting their overall wealth and purchasing power diminished in the much larger bond and treasury market. Real working people and savers are being stressed by these negative rates and increasing costs like healthcare. Despite the best attempts by central banks to spur spending, lower rates aren’t going to get them to spend more. The only thing that will do it is a vibrant economy. The young people either have no job or if they have a job, they are trying to save for an over-priced home. Either way, they have no money left in the kitty. The older people who have some savings have been burned recently in the past and are worried about retirement prospects with rising healthcare costs. They don’t want to be burned again and will just clutch desperately to what they have, even if stocks keep going up in a blow off top. Inflation might force their hand but right now, the only ones pouring money into stocks are the richer folks like you or me with an appetite for risk :). So the rich get richer while the middle class gets hollowed out. The poor looks to socialism and a bigger government for a hand out. Negative rates by the central banks are a sure sign of desperation. I think we are in a spiral down, even if the stock market keeps going up. And so it goes….
I should add that I believe the next act of desperation by central banks (after negative rates) will be QE for the people. Either a debt jubilee, a direct handout bypassing the banks or some kind of direct mortgage manipulation by the government. A massive infrastructure spending program is also a possibility. This may be popular but it could lead to massive inflation.
When that doesn’t work, the wheels have truly fallen off and we are really in trouble. We then resort to full scale trade wars (possibly real wars) and capital controls which end up stifling all growth unless you are an arms manufacturer.
I would love to think that this won’t happen and that people and governments will come to their senses. In the words of Bob Hoye, we could have a “bull market in common sense”. The choice between Hillary and Trump is just awful, though. I don’t see it happening. If Kim K ran for president, she just might win!
Such happy thoughts!
Based on my one-day winning streak from yesterday (money on Brexit at 9/2) so not worth much as an opinion. However, when Al said he doubted the market might fall 20%, I suddenly thought wow that’s going to happen, nobody has that in their radar, so I bet it happens
With regard to dozens of energy stocks, it appeared to me that the 50 day moving average acted as support.
My oil stocks lost 25K today but my gold and silver stocks were up about 50K. I’ll take it!
Bonzo, I mentioned above that I bought a “tad” of PPP again today.
Thanks, Doc. I ‘ll keep an eye on it. I want more NSRPF too and OCANF.
Doc, do you have any thoughts on Coeur Mining?
I felt it would go lower when it was about $7.30 but I missed out on the move up. Just wondering whether you have any thoughts on where it might go in the coming weeks?
Bob, I like CDE and I own it. It’s about to take out the 200 week SMA and if it closes for 2-3 weeks above it, I’ll add to my position and then hold for the long ride.
Thanks CFS.
Thanks Doc.
DOC, re:CDE
You seem to have different criteria. It seems approaching over-bought (I.e. risky) to me.
Could be—it may bump it’s head on the 200 week MA and then move down—on this stock I’m going with the technicals at this time.
Time will reveal all.
I wish I had your technical skills, but I learn something everyday.
(Which is just as well as my memory seems to dump knowledge all too regularly.)
Here is a financial sense (a month old) interesting discussion on Brexit.
http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2016-0519-brexit-debate-o4u8vy3.mp3
Hi Doc,
Lokking at the daily chart on the GDX, I see something new. In the recent past, when gold has made a move like this, GDX has taken off ( and formed a white candle). Today, GDX had a weak move (in comparison to gold), and finished the day with a black candle. Thats not to say we cant keep runninv here. I see GDX popped over the 50 month moving average,… but this did feel different, and i had a feeling smart money might be selling into this. Just felt different and had me wondering if we are seeing an exhaustion gap here.
Don Corleone, Good read from your technicals on a strong move up here. Now, since this move spiked past your targets, does that change/alter your forecast? If so, how? Thanks.
Does anyone realize the political and historical irony of the U.K. having to vote on a referendum whether to stay in the EU when at one time the sun never set on the British Empire?
Gold price closed just above the previous spike high, but the volume bar is huge.
Nice chart.
Yes, it was once Italy and before that Greece. Look at them now.
Who do you think will be the next all-conquering empire to come down… behind freshly built walls 🙂
Doc, you’re right.
You got to love how O’Buggered went all the way to London to lecture the British common folk on how to vote and threatening them if they didn’t vote the way he wanted.
O’Buggered shot himself in the foot and is to arrogant to even realize it.
They sure did listen to our Lord and Savior, O’Buggerred, didn’t they?
How dare the little poeple in the UK not follow the command of the Great O’Buggered!
Eb, maybe just maybe the average person is starting to figure out the elites’ games. They also seem to have figured out not to listen any longer to the MSM and are thinking for themselves.
The non-mainstream is no better anymore, Doc. The internet which was once a bastion of individualism and great intellectual arguments against the pablum put forth by much of the popular media has, unfortunately, been fully infiltrated and become an extension of the mind molding process. Careful what you read and who you listen to in the alternate world. ALL news is now suspect. Just like the effort involved in picking good stocks from the dogs, one also needs to carefully screen the writers and speakers in the ALT world because far too many are just reciting and reformulating what they have absorbed from the mainstream.
Doc, now you short gold?
Let’s face it you missed the entire move from $1070 to now.
This was a great set of podcasts today!!
The problem I am having with the gold chart is that it is taking so damned long to complete this pattern. We seem to almost be there (finally!) and if this year plays out similarly to the past then the declines in July / August should be rather steep.
Gold on the daily had, (up until Thursday anyway), formed a nearly perfect top-megaphone pattern which when finally complete should usher in a rather profound directional change and finally put to rest the assertions that a new bull market has begun.
That was no doubt what much of the market had already concluded and so when that massive spike came yesterday it was to the consternation of a lot of guys who had already taken short bets in anticipation of an extended summer price decline.
If we ignore the intraday spike however the megaphone pattern is still fully intact and therefore nothing has really changed except there was a loss making opportunity if the shorts had bailed in a panic.
I seriously doubt the upper boundary of the rising price channel on gold (daily chart) is going to be violated on a closing basis though and my outlook has not therefore changed as a result of yesterdays single-day action.
I continue to be bearish metals in the larger picture and agree completely with Doc that a considerable decline in gold is impending for July. Just as the January 2015 analog ushered in a burst of buying activity in mining stocks and metals for the 2016 year, I think we can anticipate a similar magnitude decline for July to mirror the last few years as well.
Keep seasonality in mind because its dangerous to ignore where gold is concerned. at least for the past few years.
It is worth noting that in 2013, 2014 and 2015 the summer months action of July and August in gold wiped away ALL the gains made in the first half of those years and I don’t expect this year to be any different.
So when I hear Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price expectations higher just a week before the slow season in metals is about to get underway I kind of have to laugh because they seem to be leading the sheep to slaughter.
That gold megaphone pattern that has been created during the first half of the year is an absolutely monster-sized amber warning for the bulls to take cover and anybody who cannot see it is probably wearing the wrong kind of glasses.
Fortunately this particular pattern is quite reliable.
Take heed and buy on Goldman’s recent bullish recommendation at your own peril.
Silver is no better by the way. It will not be going to 20 dollars anytime soon so the dreamers can stop dreaming already. Yesterday gave us a weekly closing outside-day so a reversal is likely now imminent (start of this next month).
Secondly, the days close could not exceed the peak made in April and so I discount the intraday move even though that did go higher. There should not be a whole lot of conflict over that conclusion as long as we don’t get a higher-high on a closing basis for the remainder of this month.
We should therefore see silver fall in sympathy with gold come July although as usual it will dance to its own beat and in this case likely lag the gold move downward. I would not be a silver buyer at this stage although there are plenty of people who will want to play what looks to them a bullish setup.
But I don’t see it that way and the mining stocks are not confirming the generally bullishness outlook in the metals community. For me to really start to take the gold market seriously, the HUI will have to break out above its August 2014 high. Thus far it has been unable to do that and therefore it remains in a bear market until further notice.
Incidentally, silver did breach the highest close of 2015 on an intraday basis yesterday. Back on January 22nd, 2015 we saw the high for that year hit a peak of around 18.30.
The danger for the bears right now is that next week sees a silver close that exceeds that old high from 18 months back. As long as we stay under it however silver should now be ready to resume its bear market trend down.
So keep your eyes peeled. This really is make-or-break time for golds little brother and there is always a chance the bulls might take control and ruin their case for a resumption of this precious metals bear market.
So wrong for so long birdy boy!
Not at all Chris. All we are dealing with here is a combination of price and time but the central principle that we are still in a PM bear market has not been violated. You should not assume that just because gold has not yet broken down that it won’t based on the length of time it has appeared to be in a bullish trend up.
The megaphone pattern is fortunately quite clear although I will admit I have been frustrated by how long it has taken for the drama to play itself out. I would advise you to look into megaphones if you are unfamiliar with them.
The bear case for both gold and silver remains fully intact and that means that the secular downtrend can still resume once the summer months of July / August arrive.
I do in fact expect the secular bear to reappear from hibernation.
You had best be careful with your buying Chris. Those candles that formed yesterday on the Yen, Silver and Gold are all termination patterns that are telling you to sell metals trades, not buy more. The outside day on silver was a particularly important warning. Since you seem unaware of the importance of what happened I would suggest you take the time to observe what happened after similar dramatic events by just comparing historical charts. You might just find that instead of being sassy with me that instead you gain a little insight into what is really coming. Let me know if your tune has changed by next month. One way or another though I really don’t give a shit what you or anyone else does. I am only pointing out the obvious and you can ignore it at your peril.
Part of the under performance in the gold and silver mining stocks yesterday can be attributed to the fact that more than 80% of all market issues went negative on the day. That is just added confirmation that a continued market sell off will not necessarily benefit gold and silver miners as some have assumed so be careful thinking that just because metals prices went up that the miners will follow. If anything there was selling into past strength and so yesterdays price action on gold was actually an opportunity for dumping miners at highs. It may even have been the last good opportunity to unload shares on the unwary so pay attention to the divergence between gold and miners if it persists next week….and most especially if the Dow and S&P continue their declines.
As a follow up, USD has finally broken out of its falling price channel that has been in play since last December and now closed above the resistance channel line indicating that it will now embark on a new rising trend for some time.
How long I don’t know but that will probably be determined by how much damage is caused to the Euro by whatever shenanigans we see out of Germany or the EU-HQ in Brussels.
I suspect that by them taking an attitude of punishment towards the UK that the Euro will suffer as an outcome because it is instability that is being fomented now, rather than strength.
If the geniuses at work behind the scene keep uncertainty at high levels while the Brexit resolves itself then it won’t likely result in currency strength. Who knows though, they may be so desperate for inflation that this is just a great opportunity to weaken euro against dollars for a short term lift so lets not underestimate their resolve in creating discord deliberately to achieve that end.
One more word on the markets……WTI did not violate its rising pattern with that price decline we saw on Friday. Nor did the S&P close below the bottom of the imaginary channel line that was created by the two lows in May. That is to say that on a closing basis the upward trend is still intact for indices and crude and I suspect therefore that next week we get a reversal in the markets that take back all the losses we saw for US equities. The S&P for example should recover to new highs above 2125 before taking another dive.
Oil, based in almost any other currency is in a rising pattern anyway.
Friday was oil in dollars went down x%, while dollars were up x%
Re: “Part of the under performance in the gold and silver mining stocks yesterday can be attributed to the fact that more than 80% of all market issues went negative on the day.”
-True. That is probably the reason the miners didn’t provide their usual leverage to the price of gold.
Re: “That is just added confirmation that a continued market sell off will not necessarily benefit gold and silver miners as some have assumed so be careful thinking that just because metals prices went up that the miners will follow.”
-False. The fact that the miners did so well while stocks plunged is nothing but bullish action for the miners. GDX finished the day up 10% versus SPY:
Re: “If anything there was selling into past strength and so yesterdays price action on gold was actually an opportunity for dumping miners at highs. It may even have been the last good opportunity to unload shares on the unwary…”
-Lol
Conclusion: If that GDX:SPY gap gets filled or partially filled in the next day or two, take it as an opportunity to sell stocks and buy miners.
I did not think the performance of gold miners was particularly great on Friday given how gold behaved. Not based on any of the indexes anyway. What that told me was that there must have been significant selling that reduced what might otherwise have been an impressive show. GDX finished the day up of course but is near resistance levels that I think will repel it in the coming days / weeks. In any case, I am not predicting a market sell-off next week but rather a reversal of losses so gold itself will probably decline and that won’t be beneficial to the miners.
But their performance was excellent given how stocks behaved. The wall of worry is standing tall, too.
In short….I am still not drinking the gold bug Kool-Aid or listening to their propaganda!!!!!
Take a close look at that upgrade. It is unusual in that they upgraded their target begrudgingly. That is to say, they upgraded the target price that has already been achieved.
Originally they had sells on the entire commodity space, saying price targets were going lower. Once the prices started moving up, they adjusted their targets up.
If they would have given a target of $1900 instead of the already achieved $1250, I’d be more worried. This is a “save face” upgrade, so I am not worried about it at all.
who really cares birdy? You just missed the money and are eating sour grapes!
You sure make a lot of bad assumptions. My analysis may differ from yours but that is not a personal attack on you so try to keep that in mind when you start casting stones in your little Thai condo.
it’s not personal. You seem very thin skined. Perhaps you never served in the military.
We call it joking or F###ing around.
AEM has gone from $23 to $50 in a very short time. A check of my posts will show I was screaming the value this stock. Listening to you trash the miners.
When you claim your analysis is the best be ready for others to throw a stone your way.
Btw, it’s not a “tiny” condo. it’s a tent on the beach and I wash up in the ocean. Bugs for food and coconut milk to drink. Can ya spare a dime brother?
Not for any more booze. You need to cut back.
LOL…..I only drink Moonshine,In reality I would rather hit the gym. Most Retired Army officers like me are into fitness by habit. I did just order a 2016 Harley, Iron 883 from the Manila HD dealer. Maybe send me some gas money?
Well I appreciate your taste in metal. Maybe we will get along after all.
of course, we can! get along. Are you Xpat like me ?
BTW I got a new tent. And I’m back in PI. Man, the girls are better here.
And better moonshine!
Possibly you could discuss next week the budget crisis in Illinois and its repercussions, not only in Illinois , but also for the whole country? Other states and Puerto Rico are also in terrible financial shape.
How do you pay the widows of the deceased police and fireman with zirp or God forbid domestic nirp.
Why, in theory, should a slow process of the U.K. Leaving the EU cause ANY effect on the stock market in America?
It does not make any logical sense for a free market!
On the other hand if you assume that the market is dominated by ALGOS, HFT AND MANIPULATION, IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE.
Pile on a trend at the beginning of the day, milk the suckers who believe the stock market is a free market…..and then wait for the next day.