Wednesday Morning Analysis from Rick Ackerman
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Natcore – NTCXF & TSX.V:NXT,
Nulegacy Gold – NULGF & TSX.V:NUG,
Central Fund of Canada – CEF & TSX:CEF/A
Bob M has an article today suggesting we are in for a correction.
I always enjoy Bobs articles, if I recall he didnt appreciate the “megaphone” pattern.
I wonder just how deep a correction could be in gold, I would like to have heard Ricks opinion.
Rick sounds generally bullish on individual stocks which implies gold will recover. I think he is going to be wrong here though. These expanding megaphone patterns are often very good predictors of future action. Personally I think gold has peaked for the year. It has already hit the upper boundary of its falling trend line and could not break out.
So this is not yet a bull market.
Bob did not want to hear anything about that idea as you mentioned. I warned on August 9th platinum would give way and indeed it has lost 120 dollars since then when it began plummeting the very next day. What more needs to be said.
———————————————————————–
This was Bob’s response to me back then:
On August 9, 2016 at 12:55 pm,
Robert Moriarty says:
Birdman: You don’t say anything that people can make money from. You act as if everyone here is dying to hear what your opinion is. And when you have been wrong 100% of the time, you prattle on about how everyone here would fail to honor you if you ever happened to be right. Well, there isn’t much chance of that happening. You aren’t even smart enough to know when you are dead wrong and have been dead wrong for a year.
—————————————-
Kind of funny in review isn’t it. 🙂 Hahahahahahaha!!!!
I agree with you Birdman in that I don’t feel totally secure in the apparent new Bull trend. However, I firmly believe the instability throughout the world will keep gold well above previous lows (1100 range) and could propel it further if bad things keep happening. My bet is on it staying in the 1250-1350 range and as bad things keep happening it blows up a some point. Many mines still lose money in this range however it is high enough to attract funding to new prosperous projects. Once in the 1500 range I feel good.
Few do believe it so far Peter. You are in rarefied air agreeing with me and that’s for certain. What precious metals do have going for them is that the seasonal strong period is not actually that far distant anymore. So even I wonder if this year will be an anomaly or not and whether gold will buck the cycle. It remains to be seen what the future brings now but August is going to be a bust for the bulls and I don’t know that I would count on a September rescue either because its more likely the general equities will get bid even while gold is still softening after summer has ended. Platinum has technically broken down as of today though. That’s a harbinger for the whole PM sector and its what I watch to get a handle on what is coming next.
Everyone knows (except Bob, maybe) that Bob is right and wrong like everyone else.
Peter, Bob is pretty darn good and he is the first to tell you some info he gets fom the industry might not be exactly accurate.
Mining is risky, alot of variables, seems to me bull runs have alot to do with herd think.
I believe he knows what he is talking about when he talks derivitives.
First aquire phyzz then shares sounded like pretty darn good thinking to me as well.
Might be wise not to underestimate Mr Bob.
Honustly, I think a smart gold bull might be a slight bit concerned when you show up saying a drop could happen.
People dont follow the threads closely I think.
I havnt wittnessed a better batting average concerning drops.
Maybe Im wrong but I dont see Dents thinking happening, course nothing can be counted out, Im more thinking Docs 1275-50, then I figure it runs up, but what th heck do I know?
Its all a coin flip to me at any givin time.
I guess there is support around 1300, even number as usual, but maybe we bounce somewhere aound there too.
Norcini was saying it might be time for caution going long, could go either way if this or that happens.
That was about the first time I recall him so unsure.
I dont subscribe tho.
B, if it turns out that I was correct all along that we are merely enjoying a dead cat bounce in a long precious metals bear market the bulls around here are going to absolutely FREAK OUT.
Personally…..I hope they hold on all the way back to the bottom. They deserve it.
I only say that because the gold rhetoric gets to be so mind numbing after awhile. Nobody even thinks anymore. Its why the trend followers usually all go off the cliff together.
Tuff to get out of a herdthink mentality sometimes, the herd seems safer I guess.
Especially when it continually re-enforces itself.
Im in the “I cant stand Hillory herd” lol
Today is the first day my pot shares moved against gold up 6% while goldshares drop.
Something “fishy” going on now.
All I can add about politics right now is if Obama was on the ticket he would probably win the election hands down. People seem to prefer the devil they know.
Birdman you and B are a joke! DT
Hope ya get a laff DT.
Its the best medicine.
Glad to see you back. This is what Larry Edelson had on his post today.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/cycles-hitting-now-81280
Thanks Doug. Larry’s chart implies gold will bottom round 1200 before it bounces. Funny but that’s just what I was writing in another post so of course I agree. What I don’t think will happen is that bounce will exceed the highs we already saw this year.
And at an eyeballs guess he is predicting that the S&P will fall below 1900 by the first of October. That will come as an ice cold shower to the market if it comes true. But after that he has the S&P soaring hundreds of points off that low so his viewpoint is kind of like Armstrong’s slingshot idea where we get a sharp decline followed by a huge rally.
I think it has a lot to do with money fleeing Europe and the lesser of the two evils Hillary or Donald.
Did you see this crazy oil inventory chart from the DOE today? I was pretty amazed by the build. The question posed by ZH was “What do you think this chart means for future prices?” And that’s a good question which was answered immediately but a 3% drop in WTI.
But that’s not what I was wondering aloud when I saw the chart.
What jumped to my mind was “What does this suggest about the odds of a Middle Eastern war breaking out some time fairly soon”?….I mean seriously….why is everyone stockpiling so much oil?
Do we really believe its because of low prices?
The Only Chart Needed To Understand The Global Oil Market — ZeroHedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-24/only-chart-needed-understand-global-oil-market
CEF is a good way to buy gold and silver at a 5% discount. And that discount may go to a
10% premium in a bull market for the metals.
I like CEF and sold it awhile back. I plan to buy it back when gold and silver pulls back. It will be around the last of Oct.
THANKS
Update: Ten Gold Mining Takeover Targets
by Ceo Technician
http://energyandgold.com/2016/08/24/update-ten-gold-mining-takeover-targets/
EX, thanks I’ve owned 1/2 of the 10 since January.
It’s a damn good list of companies. Yes I’ve traded 5 of them this year, but only hold 2 of them at present.
Another way to look at this is some great potential shorts. I suspect half are great takeout targets and half are great potential shorts. Detour -short, Pret could go either way (resourse and mining model is questioned by some really smart people).
A very valid point Peter R. A few of those companies could be great shorts for the short-term.
Overall I’m not doing anything drastic, but am waiting to see if this is just a temporary dip or if the metals and miners are going to develop into a larger corrective pattern. A few of those gold companies had gotten a bit ahead of themselves in the short term, but I generally don’t short individual stocks as I don’t really use options. I do use inverse ETFs to short a downward trend in a given sector.
I’m all for adding to the miners if they do pull back in a meaningful way, but will be looking at the weekly on Friday and the monthly once August rolls over for more guidance as to the mid-term trend.
Aura Minerals Announces Rights Offering
TORONTO, ON–(Marketwired – August 24, 2016) –
“The rights offering is being undertaken for the development and capital requirements of the accelerated restart of the Ernesto / Pau-a-Pique Project. The Company believes that the anticipated cash flows from the Ernesto phase of the EPP Project would accrue to the Company on an accelerated basis based on this spending and therefore enable a faster scheduling of the repayment of project debt.”
Pure Gold Accelerates Exploration at the Madsen Gold Project, Adds Fourth Drill Rig and Moves to Re-Open Existing Portal
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired) – Aug. 23, 2016
IMPACT Silver Announces Q2 2016 Financial and Production Results
VANCOUVER, Aug. 23, 2016
NexGen Energy Drilling 180 Meters Southwest of Arrow Returns 10.0 Meters of 10.33% U3O8
VANCOUVER, Aug. 23, 2016
Paladin Energy Limited: Financial Report for the Year Ended 30 June 2016 and Outlook
PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA–(Marketwired – August 24, 2016)
Fission Uranium Hits >9000 cps 30m West of R840W; Drills New Area Beneath Triple R
KELOWNA, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Aug. 24, 2016)
CEO of Canalaska (CVV) (CVVUF) Peter Dasler discusses Kimberlite drilling with De Beers
I have been on vacation for awhile and haven’t seen Doc making commentary, so I am curious why he’s been gone.
Doc knows Trump must carry Ohio to win, so he has gone there to help.
Big Al said Doc just bought a new house and was moving (he must have packed up the computer)
Cory said Doc was traveling this week.
I just hope he is not out rock climbing, as that is when people go missing and never come back as contributors….
Haha do not worry guys. Doc will be back with us early next month. Right now he is on a fishing trip and when he gets back next week we will be moving. When that is all settled we will be back chatting almost everyday.
Thanks Cory. We’re just having Doc withdrawal . Keep up the great work guys.
Chirp Chirp
(that’s as neutral as I can make my feelings known today) 🙂