Our opinion of the EU tax ruling against Apple
Chris Temple and Cory Fleck take time to address the business headline of the day regarding the EU imposing back taxes plus interest on Apple of $14.5 billion. This decision by the EU will be fought by Apple and Ireland (where Apple had the apparent ghost office set up) so nothing is a done deal yet. The big question will be what the fallout between the EU and other companies and other countries if they continue down this road.
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I wouldn’t do that. The monthly AAPL chart sports a classic rising five wave Elliot pattern and we have hardly begun the expected 3 wave decline that is currently in progress. Longer term Apple has a long way to fall yet. It’s a sell now in my books but the total decline could take more than a year or two to play out.
I meant to add that it has taken 10 years to arrive at the peak it saw in 2015 so expect it to be a long fall before it finally bottoms again.
OFF TOPIC (Not Apple)
Anyone invested since Jan16 (or earlier) has been expecting a significant decline in PM Stocks. Each has planned accordingly (trade it, buy and hold, core + trading shares, etc)
Here are two rationale, respcted author’s opinions and suggested re-tracement scenarios
https://rambus1.com/2016/08/30/gdx-update-71/
http://thedailygold.com/a-bit-more-downside-potential-in-gold-stocks/
Hey Apple come to the UK we’re definitely going to be looking to do deals
Anybody home? The Au market took a good hit today.
Yep!
And I took advantage to increase my stack of physical silver.
(Even though I expect further drops in the near future.)
Go for it Einstein.
With Billions involved it is possible this will be in the courts for a decade.
Any other farmers here watching wheat? Holy crow man has it ever been getting creamed the last few months. And I don’t mean Creamed Wheat. But its been crashing this year and seems to have taken an uglier turn for deep red lately. Which means there is probably a buying opportunity coming up after harvest is out of the way and lots of guys have sold into the lows…….kind of the usual stuff but I thought I would mention it anyway. Price tends to go soft around Septemberish and then perk up later in the year. But we are getting down so low now that some guys won’t even be planting it next year.
Good point, Birdman, but wheat’s not gold!!
If it jumps 30% this winter it is!!!!
I agree, of course…
The recent depressed state of all things ag-related could be a nice oppty; look at the depressed fertilizer stocks perk up today on the Agrium-POT merger talk
An end might be in sight Chris. I use RJA (Rogers Commodity Index ETN) as a gauge and its looking to retest its lows. Double bottom is possible fairly soon. Wheat, corn and beans make up almost 40% of the index so its handy if you follow Ag.
http://finance.yahoo.com/chart/RJA#eyJtdWx0aUNvbG9yTGluZSI6ZmFsc2UsImJvbGxpbmdlclVwcGVyQ29sb3IiOiIjZTIwMDgxIiwiYm9sbGluZ2VyTG93ZXJDb2xvciI6IiM5NTUyZmYiLCJtZmlMaW5lQ29sb3IiOiIjNDVlM2ZmIiwibWFjZERpdmVyZ2VuY2VDb2xvciI6IiNmZjdiMTIiLCJtYWNkTWFjZENvbG9yIjoiIzc4N2Q4MiIsIm1hY2RTaWduYWxDb2xvciI6IiMwMDAwMDAiLCJyc2lMaW5lQ29sb3IiOiIjZmZiNzAwIiwic3RvY2hLTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIsInN0b2NoRExpbmVDb2xvciI6IiM0NWUzZmYiLCJyYW5nZSI6IjF5In0%3D
I saw wheat discussed the other day, I guess there are bumper crops just about everywhere its grown.
Almost time to start sniffing around. Actually there is probably plenty of time unless one of the Northern Hemisphere crops suddenly comes in poorly due to frost or early snow. You never know. I might check the Farmers Almanac later on to see what they say.
Btw, sorry if I sounded too bearish gold and miners today but we had some unusual action and some alarms might be going off. For example NUGT broke a key support level that I thought would hold for at least a few days. Secondly, it has now lost more than 50% of its gains since the start of this bounce in January suggesting its headed a lot lower. Maybe to a 618 Fib around 15 and a half. I can theorize though its set to drop back to about 10 bucks and change in a worst case scenario. It is proving my megaphone pattern theory in spades right now though so I am pretty happy about that. It does however look like we will get a brief bounce in the next few days but I don’t think that will hold.
Kind of interesting….the top 100 losers on the TSX today were virtually all gold miners with the exception of a few oil companies. The rout was well rounded and comprehensive hitting almost all the major and minor metals shares. That kind of broad based selling should be a warning that the mood just turned quite negative but some people will no doubt be buying the dips. We can only wait and see if the carnage carries on into the next few days as bloodied gold investors start sizing up their odds overnight and deciding whether to save some of their winnings or hold on for a bounce. This has now turned into a stampede of herding instincts though…..so I am not betting on a quick recovery.
You missed my pot shares, they dropped too, for a few days there I thought they disconected from gold, but nope.
I think your right about herdthink happening, cant blame anyone, goldshares could drop big time.
If we get a bounce and its small, i think that could portend larger drops than people might think.
Your 1200 could materialise, and if that happens, some shares I watch could drop 50%+ from here if todays action continues.
Personally Im just watching a bit for now.
If you have ever seen a chart overlay of gold prices versus gold stocks you will note that the companies just soar with the first signs gold will rise but then they will crash back to earth will an almost equal ferocity when the mood turns sour. That is exactly what i think is now happening. Most people don’t react fast enough to get out because it all comes apart in just days. So they end up holding all the way down in fear a bounce is imminent and they might be stupidly selling the bottom of the decline. Instead though stocks keep falling if the bloom is off gold and they end up losing most of their prior gains. I don’t have a handy way to create such a chart for you right now but one of the nice people who uses Stockcharts.com can probably whip one up in a few seconds if you ask them.
(I would ask but we are not on speaking terms anymore)
Yes B….my minimum downside target on gold is just slightly sub 1200 and I do believe we will get there on this cycle. I just can’t ever get how fast it will happen but with the speed of the current declines it might not be very long.
Sorry….I don’t follow pot shares….just POTash Corp!!!! (does that count?)
Funny, no need tho.
I know exactly what your talking about and agree.
I dont know if Im right or wrong but I sold yesterday, a few hours earlier than I could have.
To me its a guess, as you know I dont chart, Im completely by the seat of my pants.
Except ya get a “feel”, there are clues.
Im sure charting is far more profitable than myself.
I honustly dont know if golds going to $400 and staying there, or we really do go to thousands.
I have no idea but Im gambling on the thousands, so, after this drop its going to the moon for sure.
Our friend Gary S. was declaring all the gold bears as fools today when he posted that gold had formed a triangular continuation pattern that would see it finally rise above 1400 dollars. He also said the dollar would fall. But both those ideas were negated later in the day by the declines in gold and the dollars nice rise. On the futures chart I use gold has now broken down from his wedge pattern meaning metals will head lower still. The stick-save comes in around 1308 or 09 but if that doesn’t hold we are heading for 1300 quick. Probably by Friday meaning that we don’t get a good chance of a bounce until next Monday.
I can hardly wait for the next update from Andy Hoffman ranting and gnashing his teeth about how the banking cartel is destroying the planet plus all the dreams of the hard money crowd even as he implores the Fed to unleash more QE to get some inflation going. That guy is about to be mixed up every which way to Sunday as he goes from hating the Fed to being their biggest booster now everyone agrees we can’t get inflation until the Fed opens a bazooka round of intervention. Cripes, does that guy make me laugh some days. I can barely contain myself.
You get more from him than I do, I dont listen to him at all.
oops, I lied, I listened the other day to a 30min? interview, for the first 5 mins and couldnt any longer.
There must be new people constantly, after awhile we’ve heard pretty much everything anyone is saying, and its always the same stuff.
Truthfully, I found it intersting the first 6 times tho.
That’s hilarious b because I tuned into that same interview and had the same reaction as you which was to give it the heave-ho after just a few minutes of stuff that did not make any sense at all.
One thing I agree with Gary on though is biotech will take on a new life at some point. LABU is falling right now but I want to catch it on its next upswing whenever that comes.
You mentioned you dont follow pot shares, just a little fundimental,no charts required, they legalising in Canada. Im sure you know that, but I bet you dont realise how much they going to sell.
Pot shares are going to be big.
I dont really follow them, I just bought some with profits from the last gold run up.
No, I didn’t know that. Pot is legal in Canada now?…..you mean all of Canada or just a few provinces?
A little off topic b……but the Canadian dollar is going to take a big fat face plant in the next couple months and possibly as soon as November this year. The last few Decembers were nasty for the Loonie but this one looks like its coming earlier. So setting aside the USD where most of the posters here come from it means that gold might still be a good buy in the Great White North even if its flaccid to limp in dollar terms. I see CAD falling all the way back to the .65 range if you are curious.
Under certain rules its legal now,(medical) sold in alot of shops in Vancouver to anyone with a note from a doctor. Which can be had right across the street from some shops.
Anyway, its close, and Justin ran on it being legalised, they are working out how the government is going to get their share.
It should be within a year, large growers are prepareing, investing millions.
Its going to be like buying brewerys just before the end of prohibition.
Check wild rose country for opportunity.
Shares were cheap, they ran up and are now pulling back with gold.
You watching the same TV I am?
That was the exact topic last night.
I was wondering about that, not sure, I try to balance physical and cash, maybe Im just plain dumb not to change all cash for gold, but then youd be calling me a goldbug. lol
Nope, I am watching TV where almost all the shows are in Arabic. We don’t hear much about pot over here (like zero) even though I hear it exists on the black market for those willing to gamble with stiff jail terms.
I have to tell you b, that is one thing I sure don’t miss about North America.
Seems almost everyone there is hopped up or doing dope whether prescription or otherwise. It is a G-d-damned plague for you guys. Over here I have NEVER seen even one person on drugs on the street. Not even one! Although the occasional alcoholic hobbles around our neighborhood but he is really frowned on so public pressure is still firmly in the no-dope category here.
Very true.
We are in a society that has a pill for pretty much everything.
People not able to get their meds is one scary thing of a societal breakdown.
In case folks have forgotten why gold and silver took off this year, you might want to re-listen to:
At a Time of Political Darkness in America, Our Whistleblowers and Activists Give Us Reason to Hope
snippet….No Federal agency has done more to drain investor and consumer confidence than the crony Securities and Exchange Commission. Public revulsion of the SEC has now reached such epic proportions that a whistleblower, Eric Ben-Artzi, has turned down his half of a $16.5 million whistleblower award from the SEC for alerting the agency that his former employer, Deutsche Bank, had been inflating the value of its credit derivatives to avoid taking losses. The SEC imposed a $55 million fine on the bank but took no further actions against the employees who were responsible for misspricing the derivatives and hiding the losses.
Guess it’s time to eyeball some Apple stock.