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Daily Market Wrap and Opinion

Big Al
September 1, 2016

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57 Comments
    CFS
    Sep 01, 2016 01:00 PM

    There have been a number of comments by Chartists that oil will go down further before rising again. They may be correct.
    I am a fundamental analyst. Here’s a factor that charts don’t consider:

    Saudi Arabia has launched a plan to boost the price of oil prior to the IPO of government controlled ARAMCO.
    OPEC source: “The Saudis are going to Algeria for a freeze.”
    Khalid al-Falih, Saudi energy minister met with the Nigerian minister and discussed a ceiling of 32m BPD with flexibility towards Iran.
    ARAMCO IPO part of ”Vision 2030″ championed by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
    Industry source: Saudi’s want higher oil prices for a better Aramco valuation, could be as high as $4 trillion.
    OPEC source from non-Gulf country: “The Saudis have to play differently. They cannot sell 10 percent of Aramco if the price of oil is miserable.”
    (DUBAI, UAE) Two years after triggering an oil price war, Saudi Arabia has seemingly had enough of cheap crude amid budget pressures, fear of a future supply shortage, and as it seeks to offload a stake in state-owned producer Aramco.
    The change in tone comes as OPEC and other producers such as Russia may resume talks on stabilizing output when they meet in Algeria later this month, after a similar effort to boost oil prices collapsed in April due to Saudi-Iranian tensions.
    “The Saudis are going to Algeria for a freeze,” said a source in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who is familiar with the matter and declined to be identified.

    More and more oil ministers are now talking among themselves to evaluate their production position.

    Sep 01, 2016 01:05 PM

    Deutsche Boerse Responds To Deutsche Bank’s Failure To Deliver Physical Gold

    **Conclusion**:Baron’s conclusion: “the “right” for actual delivery at Xetra-Gold is theoretical: physical delivery is only possible if the respective bank branch also cooperates. Suspicious gold investors should consider Xetra-Gold as another form of paper gold and not as a physical gold investment.”

    Our take is slightly different: while we already know that physical delivery at Deutsche Bank appears to have been compromised, according to the Deutsche Boerse response, the ability of any and every other bank in Germany to deliver gold is now likewise questionable. Which begs the question: where is all the physical gold?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/xetra-golds-responds-deutsche-banks-failure-deliver-physical-gold

    Sep 01, 2016 01:10 PM

    Oil reminds me of the kerosene market after the civil war. It is not important anymore because technology is making it obsolete. Platinum also will lose value as time goes on. So many people can’t see how fast these changes are coming. Humans are no longer able to keep up with the super industrial revolution. DT

    CFS
    Sep 01, 2016 01:28 PM

    I was listening to BBC World Service, discussing refugees arriving from Libya.
    Projected at over 30,000 this year, with a mixture of Moroccans, Algierians, Egyptians, Ethiopians, Somalis, etc.
    In addition to shelter being provided, Italy gives each refugee that settles in Italy a sum of 14,350 Euros per year as spending money, in cash, handed out daily or weekly, depending on location, but coming from central government taxation.
    I wonder whether these are economic migrants or real refugees……sure beats working for scraps in a 3rd world dump of a country!

      Sep 01, 2016 01:12 PM

      Of course they are economic migrants.

      Sep 02, 2016 02:21 AM

      You are really ignorant CFS. The West, primarily Europe, has been pillaging Africa of its resources for centuries. Even now, far more wealth leaves the continent that enters as genuine investment. So when a few migrants escape poverty and lay a claim to fragments of their own birthright that was stolen then guys like you cry bloody murder that they are getting a free ride. Whose money are you really enjoying? You think Western countries all got rich from hard work and savings? That’s bullshit. There was a global theft that took place that put the Americas on top and it has never been addressed equitably with reciprocal investments that might have been of benefit to the people who lost their primary resources to avaricious foreign exploits, political / economic domination and wars. Enjoy your money though. Other people got to starve so you could be fat and write stupid things online.

        CFS
        Sep 02, 2016 02:47 AM

        So, Birdbrain, the ordinary people of Europe should pay for the corruption and exploitation of others, because Africa is allowing resources to be removed? What is that ? Guilt by possible racial connection. Such logic!

          Sep 02, 2016 02:39 AM

          Bird is just throwing a fit because he was, yet again, most bearish gold just before a low.

            Sep 02, 2016 02:32 AM

            Good one…I told him gold was going higher 🙂

            Sep 02, 2016 02:39 AM

            Let’s not be to hard on him ,I think he is ticked off ,his turtle escaped ,just after it ate his list of stock picks

            Sep 02, 2016 02:11 AM

            Jerry, you just parrot what everyone else says. Anyway, gold dropped at the end of Friday.

            Sep 02, 2016 02:12 AM

            Excuse me…..Thursday…

            Sep 02, 2016 02:38 AM

            What are you talking about Matthew. There are no technical breakouts that have yet reversed the bear patterns in play. If that changes after Labour Day I will reconsider but right now there are precious few reasons to expect a big rebound. You better just hope that when traders are all back from vacation they are in the mood to push gold up and not in a place they decide to reallocate elsewhere. The probabilities are now with the bears after such a long run though.

            Sep 02, 2016 02:51 AM

            Had you been a buyer when you were bearish, you could have sold out this morning with a very nice profit and still avoid whatever you’re afraid of on Tuesday. That’s all.

            Sep 02, 2016 02:39 PM

            The money some of us have made in mining stocks so far this year has been rather obscene even by Western standards.
            I cannot even contemplate what that same money would be in African (or other 3rd World) standards of living?
            Generational life changing for them?….I can only hazard a guess.
            Cheers.

            Sep 02, 2016 02:28 PM

            Immigration can of course work, if the individuals immigrating are willing too that is?
            I’m a tradesman,
            We have an apprenticeship system over here for trades,
            For several decades I always constantly had 3 or 4 apprentices going through training.
            It was a win/win…I got cheap initial labour/they learnt a trade/eventually if they were worthy I paid them good money (I still have some who are 20+ year employees) if they weren’t they went elsewhere or attempted to open there own business.
            I haven’t bothered to take on an apprentice for nearly ten years & why would I?
            Todays youth cannot be told they have made a mistake, its always someones elses fault, very few show any strong work ethic that was the corner stone of their parents success.
            I’ve given up on youth apprenticeship.
            When I need a tradesman, I headhunt overseas for someone qualified.
            Bring them over on a 457 visa, settle & sponsor them through the permanent residency procedure(which is rather lengthy). Work them damn hard, pay them damn well in return.
            Again its a win/win….for them & for me.
            I get the skills & work ethic I’m after, they get the money & lifestyle opportunity they wish for them & their family.
            When I look around at the backgrounds we have all come from my workplace its like the United Nations now.
            Aussies, Poms, Irish, German, Polish, Korean, Serbian, Macedonian, Thai, Italian, Chinese & recently a Kiwi.
            & we all get along wonderfully.
            If immigrants are willing to work hard & assimilate for their own benefit then its a betterment for their adoptive Country.
            But when they are not willing…..well thats a different story.
            Cheers.

          Sep 02, 2016 02:09 AM

          No CFS, I am saying that those refugees and immigrants from Africa would not even be coming if the continent had developed a little more strongly in the first place. There is extreme inequity in the world and its often at its worst in places like Eritrea when compared to developed countries. The source of the inequity has been Europeans for centuries. Now they are reaping what they sowed so they just just shut up and accept their collective responsibility. You are so daft it is beyond comprehension and I am really unimpressed by your credentials since they are so clouded by your racism. Don’t you think maybe there is a problem when a billion people are living on a buck or two a day while millions of happy little EU citizens complain about the flavor of their 8 dollar Latte’s? I mean come on!! Why don’t we see how long you last on an African salary. Get back to me when you realize you got cheated somewhere in life. And by the way, they have TV over here so EVERYONE knows how and why the continent got screwed over and they can see what they missed out on in the big global sweepstakes.

        GH
        Sep 02, 2016 02:24 PM

        Of course there’s truth in what Birdman says. Just like the US is reaping the consequences of allowing its leaders to screw over Latin America for a century+.

        But clearly the primary beneficiaries of the looting of Africa and Latin America are also screwing over their own people, and most likely have planned the refugee/immigration crises in both Europe and North America as part of their divide and conquer strategy.

        So, no, I don’t think more wrongs are righting the crimes Birdman points out.

        On the other hand, CFS: “the ordinary people of Europe should pay for the corruption and exploitation of others?” — Given the fact that the ordinary people of Europe and the US put the worst of humanity in leadership positions and let them act out their psychoses on the world stage, it’s pretty much a law of nature that they will pay an ugly price for their complacency, willful ignorance, and hypocrisy.

      Sep 02, 2016 02:01 AM

      What is really behind the migrant move is globalism our elite masters are changing the values of western society so they can integrate the world under one government. Their ideas are being exposed but there plan will carry on, it remains to be seen whether they will be successful, if Hillary gets in their plan will be back on the front burner. This US election is so important as Trump has said America first. DT

    CFS
    Sep 01, 2016 01:48 PM

    The US appears to be following the insane economic policy of Japan.
    Why would I describe it as insane; other than it doesn’t work?
    Well…..
    The BOJ is buying close to $800 billion (USD) of bonds annually, and after years of doing this…
    The bank’s QE program is truly gargantuan, and Kuroda made a key speech at Jackson Hole indicating he has no intention of tapering it at all.
    So……
    I can actually add and subtract numbers…..(More accurately with a calculator…)
    In lees than 24 months at the current rate, Japan could buy ALL existing bonds in Japan.
    Of course, that won’t happen. It realized there was a limit, so it’s buying up shares of Japanese companies and even some foreign stock.
    ALL WITH MONETIZED DEBT.
    Absolute insanity, which can only end in the Government owning virtually everything and the population impoverished.
    And the US is stupid enough to be following the Japanese model?
    Clearly the Trump wall when it is built will need a sign; “saying “Beware, Lunatics contained herein”,.

      Sep 03, 2016 03:05 AM

      So if the major Central Banks of the world end up owning all the debt and the majority interests in most public corporations then who are really our masters? Will the term “corporate Governance” take on a whole new meaning as companies that are un-elected carry out the duties and demands of CB’s via the governments that established them? And what happens then when the government itself is not democratically elected? What kind of term do we even have for that if the companies that are beholden to them through ownership stakes are essentially being run by a handful of individuals or even a dictator? Kind of strange thought isn’t it?…..that all power over commerce might one day rest in the hands of a board of the worlds CB’s that are overseen by the puppetmasters of the world.

    CFS
    Sep 01, 2016 01:55 PM

    Jim Willie really popping up all over this week!
    The latest:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp8akhFxLWA

      Sep 02, 2016 02:43 AM

      Willie great as always…THANKS

    Sep 01, 2016 01:15 PM

    It will be very good for The US to take a tour of the lean years during the 1930’s, most people have forgotten about hard times when people were neighbors, when we communicated and cared for each other.

      CFS
      Sep 01, 2016 01:11 PM

      Wasn’t that what the welfare state was invented for; rather than for the corrupt politicians and the top 1/10th % ?

    Sep 01, 2016 01:16 PM

    This was a pretty good editorial to check out about what the author’s strategy was for being defensive a few months ago in mining stocks, and how he going to play this correction moving forward. He’s a pretty sharp guy and I’ve watched his interviews from investing conferences for a while. Worth the quick read:

    __________________________________________________________________________

    PROVEN & PROBABLE
    Maurice Jackson – Say It Ain’t Over

    TOPICS: Bob Moriarty, Bullion, Capitalism And Morality, David Morgan,Gold, Jayant Bhandari, Natural Resource Investing,Palladium,Platinum, Rick Rule, Silver,Sprott Global Resource Investments, Uranium

    http://www.provenprobable.com/blog/maurice-jackson-say-it-aint-over/

    Sep 01, 2016 01:54 PM

    Great interviews today. However, please don’t take this offensively, but if you eat during a recording, got to hit the mute button.

    Sep 01, 2016 01:07 PM

    Protests Erupt in San Juan as Obama Forms Unelected Control Board to Run Puerto Rico

    President Obama has appointed seven members to a federal control board that will run the finances of Puerto Rico’s nearly bankrupt government for at least the next five years and restructure nearly $70 billion in debt. The board is made up of three Democrats and four Republicans who will not only approve any budgets created by the island’s politicians, but also attempt to negotiate with the island’s nearly 20 creditors.

    http://www.democracynow.org/2016/9/1/protests_erupt_in_san_juan_as

    Sep 01, 2016 01:48 PM

    If oil is going down, how will that effect uranium?

      Sep 01, 2016 01:57 PM

      Nuclear Plants take decades to plan, permit, commission, and build and they have a general lifespan of 30-50 years. Since they are such long-range projects for base-load power, and because Uranium fuel for the reactors is less than 1% of the overall input costs, then the price of Uranium can rise 2-4 times over the next few years and it wouldn’t mean much at all to the Electric Utilities companies that operate them, and would not cause an increase in costs for power generation or end user costs.

      Oil costs directly impact refiner margins, producer margins, exploration efforts, and the health of the oil patch and related oil services business hinge upon the daily price swings of Brent and West Texas Intermediate.

      For that very reason they are kind of apples and oranges as it relates to energy costs.

        Sep 01, 2016 01:18 PM

        The other thing that many investors haven’t wrapped their head around yet (mostly due to ideological differences of opinion) is that the developing world is not going to be as dependent on fossil fuels as the developed Western world has been.

        Emerging countries are looking for ways to bypass Coal almost completely, and to minimize their Oil & Gas needs for power generation. They are planning and permitting zero carbon emission power plants focused on Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Hydro, and Geothermal projects. I do think over time a growth area may be Natural Gas though if they can continue to develop better methods for transportation of LNG and start building out more infrastructure, due to its current cost advantages.

        The other sea change that many “traditional” Energy investors in the West are still struggling to come to grips with is that Lithium powered industrial-sized Back-Up batteries are allowing Solar and Wind to provide viable power 24-7 to the energy grid. This is enabling Solar and Wind to bring down costs and compete with Coal/Oil/Nat Gas/ and Nuclear.

        Lastly, the advent of Electric Cars, Electric Buses, Electric Trucks, and Electric Drones is hurtling forward at an astonishing pace with or without Tesla, and the wheels have been set in motion.

        It is not a pipe dream anymore, and China just rolled out huge fleets of Electric Buses that run on Lithium powered Batteries (not Oil & Gas), because they are dealing with smog and consequences of dense urban areas belching out carbon from too many vehicles and power factories. They get it, and the rest of the developing world gets it. The world wants cleaner power, cleaner air, and a way to get out of the rat race with the Petro Dollar and over-dependence on the Oil cartels. Also the car, home, and all electronic gadgets are developing into a way where they can all share power and transfer power back and forth (and OIl and Gas aren’t invited to that party).

        This trend will only pick up speed and will be a huge sucker punch to the Oil industry over the next 10 years, and is going to be the crushing blow that thins out the number of Oil & Gas companies there are, and the industries and job markets that depend too heavily on Oil (assuming the game would last forever). There will still be some needs for petroleum-based products, but the cheese is moving……

        There does need to be electrical generation to power the world but Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, and Lithium-powered Batteries are the future, and Oil & Gas were at their pinnacle in 2014. It’s a long road down…..

          Sep 01, 2016 01:25 PM

          Having said that, in the short to Mid-term, Oil & Gas prices will continue up to the $60+ area and there will be good opportunities to invest in the solid Oil & Gas plays for the next few years. The Oil patch bottomed and is starting it’s trajectory back up with the rest of the commodities over the next few years. It just seems this may be the final bull market that Oil & Gas enjoy, and will be the Oil Fat Cats last dance.

            GH
            Sep 02, 2016 02:27 AM

            Interesting commentary, Excelsior, thanks for sharing your ideas. I must say, your scenario seems plausible.

            Sep 02, 2016 02:28 PM

            Thanks GH. Energy is a dynamic and ever-changing sector to keep tabs on. It’s a big world to power out there….

    Sep 01, 2016 01:35 PM

    Miner to Missionary: The Ross Beaty Story
    Frances Bula | AUG 31, 2016

    http://www.bcbusiness.ca/natural-resources/miner-to-missionary-the-ross-beaty-story

      Sep 01, 2016 01:39 PM

      In reference to the energy discussion up above – Ross Beaty gets it.

        Sep 01, 2016 01:54 PM

        To clarify – Ross gets the future of the Energy Sector (Emerging Energy was the tie-in)

        (The article is bit hyped up on the Environmental side and “Green” propaganda and that was NOT the purpose of me posting it just so that wasn’t left unsaid.)

        As the article e-v-e-n-t-u-a-l-l-y got to….. When he started in geothermal power plants it was tough. He eventually bought the producing plants in Iceland and got into that big stink with Björk, and even though she attacked him publicly, she got slammed in his straight-forward and logical public responses.

        Anyway, the article gets into how he build the conglomerate power company with Geothermal, Solar, Wind, etc… that is today known as Alterra Power Corp.

        __________________________________________________________________________

        Alterra Power – Corporate Presentation:

        http://s1.q4cdn.com/340776418/files/doc_presentations/2016/Alterra-Company-Presentation-Aug-2016.pdf

          Sep 01, 2016 01:14 PM

          *** Pages 6 & 7 are worth reviewing on that presentation above.

        Sep 01, 2016 01:56 PM

        It’s a shame that Beaty funds the David Suzuki Foundation.

    Sep 01, 2016 01:42 PM

    Thanks,much appreciated.

      Sep 02, 2016 02:11 AM

      It’s a fun topic to discuss. Cheers!

    Sep 02, 2016 02:13 AM

    Lundin Mining Reports 2016 Mineral Resource & Reserve Estimate Update
    TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – Sept. 1, 2016)

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/377-tsx/lun/24146-lundin-mining-reports-2016-mineral-resource-reserve-estimate-update.html

    Sep 02, 2016 02:14 AM
    Sep 02, 2016 02:17 AM

    More M&A action….

    _________________________________________________________________________

    Treasury Metals and Goldeye Explorations Sign Definitive Arrangement Agreement and Complete Financing
    TORONTO, Sept. 1, 2016

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/862-tsx/tml/24138-treasury-metals-and-goldeye-explorations-sign-definitive-arrangement-agreement-and-complete-financing.html

    Sep 02, 2016 02:17 AM

    Cameco, ready to pop or drop?
    I have started to nibble on CCO.

      Sep 02, 2016 02:35 PM

      I don’t trade Cameco as I feel there are better options with more torque, but I’m not a big fan of the Majors in Gold or Silver either. My interest is on the small producers, development stage companies, and explorers.

    Sep 02, 2016 02:11 AM

    OPTT, pop or drop?