A slow unwind should be expected in most major markets
Doc is back and I get him to share his views on a number of different sectors. We start with US equity and quickly move into gold and gold stocks. Doc has long claimed this year would be a transitional year and we will see a ‘U’ shaped recovery in the precious metal. That leads him to believe that gold will trend along for the next few months without any form of a substantial breakout. We also touch on his outlook for oil.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I hear what the Doc is saying, but……
I’m not a chartist.
I look at volume and momentum.
With regard to gold and mining stocks, I still see much more up-volume than down-volume, irregardless of the time interval used, be it hourly, daily or weekly.
That, to me, indicates we are still in a healthy bull market.
Bull markets never go straight up over weeks, but have periods of calm and consolidation.
However, such consolidation rarely encompasses a period of seasonal strength.
I believe that a sideways movement of gold and mining stocks, or silver and mining stocks, to continue into 2017 as being highly improbable. This is a time when the Doc, Birdman and price charts may not be best predictors of action over the next quarter. Time will tell.
I do agree with the Doc on oil.
Good to hear Doc cover the different sectors today. While we may be in a “cooling off period” for a while “where things don’t move appreciably higher,” I see it as the calm before the storm….with some assets moving much higher, and other more conventional assets topping and dropping. It should be an exciting Autumn.
$MLN $MLNGF #Royalty #Streaming #Production #Development
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd. – Corporate Presentation at Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit
Akiba Leisman, Executive Chairman
$EMX $EMXX #ProspectGenerator #Royalty
Eurasian Minerals Inc. – Corporate Presentation at Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit
David Cole, President & CEO
(RPM.V) (RPMGF) Rye Patch Gold Corp.
Corporate Presentation at Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit
William Howald, President & CEO
Rye Patch Wins Reclamation Award at Florida Canyon Mine
Vancouver, British Columbia, September 13, 2016
Capitan Shad,
Thanks for the various gowebcasting links: appreciated.
Best as always,
LPG
Toot Toot! All Aboard!
LPG – I posted on El Capitan just this morning (on yesterday’s market wrap), but I’d like to get you thoughts and asked you for your thoughts on this news release on that blog:
El Capitan Precious Metals Announces Agreement for Sale of 600,000 Metric Tons of Head Ore
September 15, 2016 SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.–(BUSINESS WIRE)-
“El Capitan Precious Metals, Inc., (OTCQB: ECPN) announced today that it has reached an agreement in principle on the terms and conditions for the sale of 600,000 metric tons of head ore. This agreement is an annual agreement with options to renew for five additional years. Finalization and publication of this agreement are subject to certain conditions, the most significant of which is that El Capitan successfully repeats the recovery demonstration of the precious metals, consistent with results of the recently completed demonstration…”
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160915005479/en/
________________________________________________________________________
LPG I had posted that and wrote you this for your take on it.
—- > On September 15, 2016 at 7:50 am,
Excelsior says:
“LPG – you have any thoughts on this agreement to sell 600,000 metric tons of head ore?”
“I’m still trying to figure this one out, but they have continued to make good progress on their recovery methods, blasting for ore, and now they have what looks to be a promising agreement in place.”
“I know the marketplace doesn’t always reward good behavior “Initially” but it always will play catch up “eventually” when a company is doing good work.”
There were also these updates:
“In support of the demand for El Capitan ore, the Company has recently completed the filing of claims on an additional 2,000 acres proximate to the current mining operation site. According to John F. Stapleton, Chairman and CEO, these new claims had been identified previously by Clyde Smith, Ph.D., geologist and El Capitan Director, as valuable to the Company’s strategic mining plan.”
“The Company’s 2016 Shareholders’ Meeting is slated for September 28, 2016 at The Inn of the Mountain Gods in Ruidoso, New Mexico.”
Capitan Shad,
Apologies for I missed 1) this press release and 2) you asking my thoughts on it.
So let me correct this miss right here:
I just went through the P.R, and the first impression I get is that it is somewhat VAGUE. And personally, I don’t like “vague” stuff that make it to P.R status – but that’s me.
Regarding this P.R, I’ll point out that one doesn’t know what kind of ore is being sold…. does it contain gold or iron ? If there is a true agreement in the pipeline (i’m skeptical about it, but let’s assume something gets signed in the next few weeks), my suspicion is that the ore will typically contain iron… I can be wrong on that, but that’s my feeling. Put it this way: if there was supposed to be gold on this ore, the word would be in the press release – alongside grades from previous sampling assays. Don’t you think ?
To finish, on that one, I’ll stick w. my impressions:
1) what I view as a BS video from the website homepage
2) no 43-101 or any indication of resources/reserve and grade on the website – nothing I could find actually –> if I missed something, please someone point me to the right URL.
3) accounting maze.
As far as I am concerned, these guys can put out dozens of similar press releases – spin doctors know how to put out press releases – but they ain’t getting any of my dollar for investment purposes. And they put out “A LOT” of press releases on the same topic… “A LOT”.
If I don’t “bet” on a team/mgt, at least I wanna bet on assets. Now, ask yourself this question:
1) what is the quality of this firm’s mgt ? (previous achievements ?)
2) asset quality ? (what are the assets made off, in terms of grade, and reserve/resource)
If I’m wrong on this one, so be it. I’ll, personally, still happily pass on that one. Happily.
Best as always, and sorry for I missed your initial post for me.
LPG
Thanks for the response LPG. Yes, I agree that their website needs updating and mentioned that dated video to you last weekend:
—-> On September 10, 2016 at 7:27 pm,
Excelsior says:
“Ha! You’re probably right LPG. It’s probably a hot mess, and I did think the same thing when I saw their website. Here’s a better one – their company “Slide Presentation” is from 2012 (lol!). ”
_________________________________________________________________________
Their ore contains both Gold and Platinum. Please see this July press release that goes over their recovery of metals in their ore. There is zero mention of iron so if you have a source for that I’m lost on those comments you made, but may have missed something you turned up.
___________________________________________________________________________
El Capitan Precious Metals Reports
99% PURE PRECIOUS METALS RECOVERY
Release: July 28, 2016 – Scottsdale, Arizona –
“John F. Stapleton, Chairman of the Board of El Capitan Precious Metals, Inc., (ECPN) announced today that significant advances in the Company’s precious metals recovery process have produced gold and platinum beads that are 99% pure, from its ultra-fine concentrates. Stapleton confirmed that the new recovery process is the result of recent collaborations and is both replicable and scalable.”
“According to Stapleton, this critical step comes on the heels of other recent announcements by the Company that have paved the way for precious metals production and cash flow.”
“We have succeeded in achieving the most significant milestone, recovery of 99% pure precious metals, in the Management’s execution of its operational goals,” said Stapleton.”
http://www.elcapitanpmi.com/sites/default/files/ECPN_NewsRelease_7-28-16.Recover99%25Pure.pdf
Capitan Shad,
Iron ore is mentioned >30 times in one of their latest SEC quarterly filing. Check either the latest one or the one for period ending Dec-2015 (these are the 2 that I looked at).
Best,
LPG
Capitan Shad,
I just checked:
Iron Ore: 39 mentions.
–> Q2 16 results.
Link: http://www.elcapitanpmi.com/sites/default/files/p0827-Final.pdf
I remembered the 39 times coz I checked for it over the week-end.
Reason for me checking was that I was seeing “iron ore” mentioned quite often, and much less gold/platinum. So I had done a CTRL + F to find out how many times “iron ore” was mentioned vs. gold/platinum.
This little exercise might not mean much but…. as I’ve said over the WE: “when things are straight, they don’t need to be complicated”.
Best,
LPG
OK – I’ll go back and look at filings in 2015 for more info. Thanks for the heads up.
What is interesting is these concentrates that they have in a warehouse. I’m trying to understand if they bought these concentrates for further processing using their new system, or if a prior miner produced them. It seems this may be an area where they make some of their margins in the short-term until they are mining their property?
This recent press release from earlier this summer:
EL CAPITAN PRECIOUS METALS REPORTS $3.7 MILLION IN VALUE ON PRECIOUS METALS CONCENTRATES WAREHOUSED VIA LOGISTICA U.S. TERMINALS
Scottsdale, Arizona – May 31, 2016
El Capitan Precious Metals, Inc. (ECPN) announced today that its contracted processing agent, Logistica U.S. Terminals, LLC, has placed in excess of seven tons of precious metals concentrates into a bonded COMEX warehouse in the name of El Capitan Precious Metals, Inc. The warehouse receipt demonstrates the value of the concentrates to be $3.7 million.
It is expected that these concentrates will support the operating capital needs of the Company as it ramps up its operating plan. It is also expected that the processing technology utilized by Logistica to obtain these precious metals concentrates will be the basis for the production line, under development, that will be established for the ongoing processing of concentrates from the El Capitan mine at a rate of 50 tons per day.
http://www.elcapitanpmi.com/sites/default/files/ECPN_NewsRelease_5-31-16..pdf
OK – I figured it out. The concentrates that had the high Gold and Platinum recoveries were from the 100,000 tones they mined, crushed and processed.
This press release should clear up what is in their ore (I didn’t see the word Iron one time 🙂 )
___________________________________________________________________________
El Capitan Precious Metals Prepares for Shareholder Meeting
with News and Updates to Shareholders
August 23, 2016
This year is already a record-setting year for El Capitan Precious Metals, Inc.
*******The Company has mined and performed primary crushing of more than 100,000 tons of head ore producing precious metals concentrates for processing. The same concentrates have successfully been further crushed and refined into 88-90% pure precious metals which when completely processed by a refinery yields 99% pure precious metals.”*****
“This successful recovery of precious metals from El Capitan concentrates has been
demonstrated to several international buyers. The Company is now in late-stage contracting with one of these buyers for the purchase of concentrates over the next 12 months, FOB the mine, at a purchase price of more than $180 million. This contract is expected to be fully executed in less than 60 days.”
LPG – if there is iron in this ore, it doesn’t appear to be the reason they are selling it or making concentrates. I do appreciate the feedback though sir. Cheers!
This press release makes more sense now. For the off-take agreement to be finalized for the sale of 600,000 metric tons then El Capitan has to prove that they can get the same results; and “repeat the recovery demonstration of the precious metals, consistent with results of the recently completed demonstration…”
_________________________________________________________________________
El Capitan Precious Metals Announces Agreement for Sale of 600,000 Metric Tons of Head Ore
September 15, 2016 SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.–(BUSINESS WIRE)
“El Capitan Precious Metals, Inc., (OTCQB: ECPN) announced today that it has reached an agreement in principle on the terms and conditions for the sale of 600,000 metric tons of head ore. This agreement is an annual agreement with options to renew for five additional years. Finalization and publication of this agreement are subject to certain conditions, the most significant of which is that El Capitan successfully repeats the recovery demonstration of the precious metals, consistent with results of the recently completed demonstration…”
I did go back through their 2014 videos and they were more focused on Iron back at that time, and they were just getting ready to embark on processing the tailings with the Precious Metals components. So while it is possible that they are getting some iron credits and other base metal credits, their focus in processing ore now in late 2016 is highlighting the 99% recoveries of the gold and platinum.
I haven’t seen a release of their official resource estimates, but it is possible that they have just gone into mining and processing tailings without it, and will be defining the resource as they grow organically, so that is admittedly a risk. It’s always a toss up between drilling a property into oblivion and doing endless capital raises or streams to finance the drilling, or just taking action and getting revenues coming in and then define more of the known and unknown resources.
El Capitan is a bit wacky, and highly speculative, but then again they announced today a sales agreement, so they are still making measurable progress, where many companies are just floating along hoping something will break. It will interesting to see what they release at their Sept 28th board meeting and press releases leading up to that, which should offer a bit more clarity.
FYI – I only have a very tiny position in El Capitan, and I only rarely discuss some of the stocks I have larger positions in. It’s just when you call me Captain Shad, which started when we reviewed this company, and their news release came out today, then it seemed worth dragging it over the coals one more time. 🙂
Capitan Shad,
I don’t call you “Captain Shad”.
I call you “Capitan Shad”.
😉
Best,
LPG
Ahoy Matey. Shiver me timbers it does say Capitan Shad 🙂
I’ll go on account with more buried pirate booty and pieces of 8 for ye’ land lubbers, lily-livered scallywags, and buccaneers before we all end up in Davy Jones’ Locker!
By the powers! Only 3 days to go before International “talk like a pirate day” on Sept 19th, me hearties!
All ye gentleman of fortune, get your Rum on and get loaded to the Gunwales oer’ the weekend, but don’t push it too hard lads or you’ll be entering Fiddlers Green a wee bit early.
$AXR $AXU
Alexco Resource Corp. – Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek 2016
Clynton Nauman, President & CEO
2016-09-15 16:12 ET – News Release
Mr. Peter Espig reports
NICOLA MINING (NIM) (HUSIF) SHIPS AND RECEIVES PAYMENT FOR APPROXIMATELY 190 DRY METRIC TONNES CONCENTRATE
Nicola Mining Inc. has shipped to MRI Trading AG (the buyer) approximately 190 dry metric tonnes of gold and silver concentrate grading approximately 100 grams gold and 606 grams silver per tonne, for an aggregate total of approximately 610 troy ounces Au and 3,702 troy ounces Ag. The source of the mill feed that produced the concentrate is from Gavin Mines Inc. Terms of the milling and profit share agreement were announced in the company’s May 31, 2016, news release.
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C:NIM-2407176&symbol=NIM®ion=C
Also included in that Nicola Ming press release above:
“The company has received the initial payment for the concentrate and will receive final payment upon confirmation of grade and weight. The company has distributed a portion of the proceeds to Gavin Mines under terms of the GMI agreement.”
“Frank Hogel, chairman of the company, commented, “Nicola holds a unique position in the junior mining sector because it is able to generate cash flow yet also provide significant exploration upside, as highlighted in its Sept. 7, 2016, exploration news release on [the] Thule copper property.”
That Alexco presentation really got me excited about their Bermingham high grade asset.
It was nice that at the very end they did address the streaming arrangement with Silver Wheaton, and that it seems like the restructuring may come down to how things go with the further Bermingham exploration.
Klondex presentation looking good:
http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2016/09/14/klondex-mines-ltd/play/stream/20036
Such a solid company. Been a fan of Klondex for a while. Thanks.
the True North and Hollister assets in development look very nice indeed.
Klondex is my favorite Gold producer and a major core holding in my PF.
Klondex is a safe bet on the upside in Precious Metals appreciation over the next few years, and they have a high likelihood of getting acquired by a larger Mid-Tier because they are so solid. (similar to Kirkland Lake and Richmont).
You’ve got to love MUX’s attitude re: shareholders….
Rob’s looking out for investors for sure. The MUX team is a class act.
I excited to see if MUX will go into acquisition mode in the next 6-12 months.
Hi Doc,
Any thoughts on a possibility for a short term bounce in GDX and GDXJ before they see the lows you are expecting?
DF; if we get one, I don’t think it’ll be strong.
Thanks Doc. Hope all is well.
This 18-carat Gold Toilet can now be used at New York’s Guggenheim Museum
Cecilia Jamasmie | about 7 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/18-carat-gold-toilet-can-now-used-new-yorks-guggenheim-museum/
Prepare for a Royal Flush..
HaHa! Yes, the perfect gift this holiday season for Turd Ferguson.
Don’t agree with Doc on this one. Gold and Silver are simply consolidating before a breakout in upper direction.
http://www.ino.com/blog/2016/09/gold-silver-consolidation/#.V9rSyo-cHIU/?a_aid=4901
CaliJoe, that 50% “C” level on your chart happens to coincide with the 200 week moving average. I think any breach of that level will be brief.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p35355110674
There’s lots of moving average support on the daily chart, too…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p55878245909
We may see a FBO (Fake Break Out) downward for a very brief period, then up
I was actually thinking about the 1307 breach, but anyway.
$1287.50 support works for me…. Thanks CaliJoe.
Very possible – and I am mentally prepared for this drop.
Cali, I agree with your consolidation thesis—our only difference is how long the consolidation. I also believe there is a trend down in the consolidation pattern.
Great interview guys. It’s interesting that you think it may take until the new year for gold to gain traction again Doc. I would have liked to hear your technical reasons for thinking that way but you didn’t touch on that too much today other than a brief discussion of GDX and GDXJ.
What I am watching for incidentally is the HUI to hit the 200 EMA as its not that far away from there now. Another 20 bucks by my estimate should do it but what happens then…..a break down would startle a few people no doubt who will be expecting a big bounce.
A break of $1,300 is going to cause volatility. Potentially a $50 – $100 drop in 1-3 days. Gold should not hang around at these levels. I want to see the reaction on a drop because gold still has unfinished upside business.
Same with HUI, drop down to 185 or so and see what it is made of.
brazilian resources is up a bit today after a trading halt yesterday, svm seems to be going against this drop. and pot shares. lol
I wonder if a drop in gold will affect the shares much this time.
No one asked Doc the important question – what the heck is going on with Hillary Clinton??? 🙂
Novo is melting up, that is not my term that is Matthew’s. All you need as an investor is one really good stock and it will take care of the losers. DT
+1
Ditto
Pareto’s Law (modified): 20 % of your PM Miners will make you 80% of your profits
+20
Great comment
Orla Mining and Pershimco Resources Announce Merger
Orla Mining Announces Back-Stopped Equity Financing of up to C$50 Million
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA and ROUYN-NORANDA, QUEBEC–(Marketwired – Sept. 14, 2016) –
Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA) and Pershimco Resources Inc. (PRO) today are pleased to announce that they have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement to combine their respective businesses, creating a new, growth-oriented gold company in the Americas. The new company, which will continue to operate under the name “Orla Mining Ltd.”, will focus on continued exploration and development of Pershimco’s Cerro Quema project located in Panama, and will seek further growth opportunities in the Americas. Marc Prefontaine will lead NewCo as President and Chief Executive Officer.
Jeez. We could see gold = $1275 and Silver $17.50 within 5 days.
But then again? Still a bull market.
NOTE: Miners SEEM to be getting crushed, but lots of buying all the way down.
Also, If this was THE sell-off to continue the bear market, the volumes would be MUCH higher
Brian,
My ASX portfolio was up today overall?
Despite the gold price being lower 24 hours earlier.
Currency play ? Possibly ?
But my personal ASX miner portfolio is worth more now than when Gold was $40 higher in price in $US ?
Plenty of people seem to be willing to buy on many of my stocks.
I guess its horse’s for courses.
Cheers.
Been a while since i’ve posted but wondered if anyone had an opinion on the chart action for Theralase (TLT / TSX). Looks very encouraging and it looks like we are finally ready break the stubborn .45 cent resistance in the coming few days. Cheers
Great News….GREECE RAIDS Home of Central Bank Head. Zerohedge
The little people revolt
I see some black swan circling.
Deutsche Bank..rejects DOJ settlement.
Banks Riskier than in 2008 Crisis, per Larry S. Former Treasury Secretary.
OOTB – Speaking of “the little people revolt”.
Werner Herzog film collection: Even Dwarfs Start Small
TLPR…..now want a “bigger ” cut of the pie
knee high and after that pie in the sky…..
Nehi Orange soda and cherry pie will stunt your growth, if you forget to extract the pits
The pit and the pendulum…..
Pit -y the dude that gets the pendulum…..
Dollar is set for another move down next week. I don’t expect gold to move down with it.