That is correct Matthew. There has not been any reason offered by the gold bug community that stuck with me let alone any that might be useful for timing the trade.

Its always….”oh the Indian wedding season is coming” or “gold always goes up in the fall” or “smart money is positioning” or “the COT reports are going to blah blah blah………and all of its useless blather.

You see what I mean. Its just nonsense. A bunch of conjecture and guessing. Most of it was worthless information. How much money did you make on gold because of Libya or Syria or Ukraine?

None. Exactly none. Because almost all the gold bug narratives are dead end streets going nowhere. This year gold went up based on little more than severe oversold conditions from December 2015 and the seasonals in early 2016.

What is different here is I think I can tell you WHY gold will go up (and stay up)based on sound reasoning and a technical pattern. Love it or hate it Matthew but the bugs mostly don’t know squat about gold except what they read on the internet or saw in an old book written in 1982.

BM:

You couldn’t figure out why gold moved up from December to now, what makes you think you have it right now? Your opinion was dead wrong for 10 months, and that is not my opinion, that’s a fact. Now you act like you invented the wheel.

Hint! You didn’t.

Not factual at all Bob so your post is at best tiresome.

I identified the pattern BEFORE gold went up in January and wrote about it extensively in the months leading up the turn. I nailed the bottom almost to the day and that is also part of the record on this site. Not only that but I put a number on it that was achieved.

Instead of just making stuff up and lying everyday why don’t you go back and review my posts instead of behaving like the daily clown. The record speaks for itself.

Gold In 2016: “Economic Power Is Shifting”
Jan 9, 2016

“A European banking crisis could escalate very rapidly if and when it starts, and would be an event beyond the direct control of an alarmingly undercapitalised ECB. The initial effect might be to drive the dollar higher in the foreign exchanges, particularly against the euro, and instigate a further markdown of commodity prices, as markets try to discount the economic implications of a systemic problem in the Eurozone. If an event such as this occurs, it would be impossible to limit it to a single geographical area. The major central banks would be forced into a coordinated rescue programme, involving a major expansion of all their balance sheets, on top of the post-Lehman crisis expansion.

Once initial uncertainties are out of the way, the prospect of escalating systemic risk should be very positive for gold, which is the only certain hedge against these events. To determine the potential for the gold price, its current value should be assessed by looking at the long-run inflation of fiat dollars relative to the increase of above-ground gold stocks, and adjusting the dollar price of gold accordingly.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-09/gold-2016-economic-power-shifting

Good to see you are pitching in and getting on track with the conversation by linking articles. I don’t see any of those authors addressing the mechanics of the euro breakdown though nor the timing or for that matter even the chart on this subject.

Much of what they are writing is vague generalizations unlike my commentary which is fairly specific. Indeed, there was a great deal of discussion on a euro collapse some years back (around 2012) but at that time it was more like worry beads and ideas were being widely bandied about.

Never any specifics though. So none of the worriers were on target.

What has changed is that we now have a very clear, definite chart pattern we can focus on and therefore a way of applying timing to the events. What is unknown of course is WHY the Euro will collapse.

Charts really don’t care.

Would you like to comment on the monthly euro chart I linked?

I agree with you perspective of the domed top in the Euro on the monthly, and with the comments you made that as the Euro pulls back that both Gold and the Yen will get a bid, and that this could actually happen in tandem with a strengthening dollar. Gold and the Dollar do not have to move inversely (and quite frequently don’t).

Those articles from early 2015 and 2016 were merely along the same lines of thought that a weakening Euro may strengthen both Dollar and Gold simultaneously. It just didn’t seem like a revolutionary new idea and those ideas have been circulating for a while. The Rubik’s Cube had been solved quite some time back, but the monthly Euro Chart is just finally showing the weakness where the thesis can play out.

https://www.google.com/search?q=rubik%27s+cube&espv=2&biw=1280&bih=666&site=webhp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiT26eDpZzPAhVDmx4KHXLcBMUQ_AUICCgD

I’ve posted for over a year the correlation between the Yen and Gold, and still find it to be one of the better metrics to follow as it relates to Gold price movment:

Yen and Gold – doing the safety dance as alternatives to central banking madness:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18739154842

But that’s the whole point. The puzzle had NOT been solved but rather merely discussed and even at that not in any great depth or with much conviction. Nor had the monthly euro chart pattern been identified for what it alone was telling us even though it was there for all to see. A thousand people might each have seen one part of the machinery but not one of them could tell you how the machine worked or what it might do next. So they just guessed at the workings and wrote stories about how dangerous it was. So while its interesting that you can find snippets here and there that seem to support my idea, not of them is specifically my idea.

But it is good to hear you agree with my detailed analysis. I think you are the first to say that.

My point was that many agree with the premise that if the Euroland experiment starts to unravel (it was mentioned with Greece, Cypress, Italy, Spain, and most recently with Brexit) that there would be an exodus out of the Euro and into the Dollar & Gold & Yen to diversify out of the Euro. The only ones that disagree with this thesis are the Dollar bull/Gold Bear that don’t believe Gold will go up at the same time as the dollar. Many people and commentators here on the KER and in the investment community abroad have shown how often both the Dollar and Gold can travel in the same direction (disproving the rigidity of the inverse Dollar/Gold correlation).

As for watching the charts and the currency markets, there are a number of commentators that see the looming weakness in the Euro, and they really came out of the woodwork before, during, and after the Brexit referendum. It only makes sense that now the real chinks in the armor of the Euro and the Eurozone are starting to present themselves.

It was just a matter of waiting for the charts in the currencies to show the process playing out. It sounds like you are satisfied that the Euro will fall based on the monthly charts, and that rung the bell for you that there will be movement into gold as a result.

For me personally, I have been watching the Yen and at times longer term treasuries for the general trend, but I typically chart each asset class separately on its own merits. For Gold, I was watching the levels of $1065 and $1044.70 very carefully as targets for where a significant bottom should occur. When Gold double-bottomed near that level at $1045.40 in December, then that was enough of a signal for me to know that Gold would rally. I was not sure if it would be “The Bottom” but felt it would be a significant intermediate term rally, and I said so at the time. My criteria for proof that we had entered a new bull market was for gold to take out $1307.80 (the Jan 2015 prior peak “Matterhorn”, and most importantly the $1321.50 trough low from April of 2013 that started the whole 3 year sideways to down consolidation. I had mentioned for some time that to feel even more solid I wanted to see Gold definitely close above $1347. All 3 of those resistance levels were taken out with relative ease during the Summer (of all times), so it told me the worm had turned on a technical basis. I didn’t require any more reasoning or currency extrapolations from that point forward.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46941056929

As one can see on that chart, Gold getting back up above the 200 day EMA was a key trend change as well.

OK. Good post Shad. I appreciate hearing your reasoning. Of course you are correct that a lot of commentators come out of the woodwork whenever a crisis seems to be brewing. And it would appear they have covered it all before. But up until now they have been wrong because the predictions have never manifest themselves so that puts their ideas in the speculation camp as none of it was tradeable. Actually, one might have lost money listening to them. The difference here is that I believe fairly strongly that this WILL happen based on a technical pattern. It does however remain to be seen if I am right or wrong and I guess we will deal with that when the time times. What I am looking for is something in the neighborhood of a 20% decline from here and possible a complete retrace of the euro to its 2001 bottom. That is what I refer to as a collapse although some might differ with me on the use of that term and just call it a technical correction or price crash. Whichever it is we will know fairly soon though as the coil has tightened for many months on end and we are near the moment of truth. That’s really all I wanted the people on this site to be aware of and to tell you the truth I thought the comments were helpful since none of us had been discussing the possibility of an imminent decline in the Euro. On the contrary, many here still seem to think the dollar will crash. So I really just wanted to make a logical case for the alternative that I felt was going to be helpful for the board. The amount of objections I received really surprised me.

+1

Yes – many have analysis paralysis, but they just need to start taking action once they have identified a good company, a good technical set up, and if there are higher targets that Rick A has, then the bull market should take those stocks up to his hidden pivots or upside resistance targets.

What amazes me are people that hear all this good info and just do nothing. Why listen then?