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Rick Rule on the forces at play for gold

Cory
September 23, 2016

This is an unedited version of segment 1 for this week’s weekend show. Due to radio time constraints the interview that will be on-air is 1 shorter. We will also be chatting with Rick in segment 2 detailing the valuation methods he uses and ones that he thinks investors should ignore.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
46 Comments
    b
    Sep 23, 2016 23:37 AM

    Rick thinks alot of the subscribers here “just pay attention to the upside” lol
    Its like he has met the herd.

    Sep 23, 2016 23:45 AM

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    The horror stories that continue to spill out about what Wall Street banks are doing behind their cloistered walls have blurred the actual function of Wall Street: to efficiently allocate capital so that new industries can be born and thrive in America, creating new jobs and a rising standard of living for all of our fellow citizens.

    In the same week that the U.S. Senate Banking committee was taking testimony that one of the biggest Wall Street banks, Wells Fargo, was opening two million unauthorized customer accounts over at least a four-year span in order to generate fees and meet daily sales quotas, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that just 68 new companies had been listed for public trading this year, a drop of 51 percent from the 138 companies that had gone public by this time last year.

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    http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/09/the-banking-model-from-hell-has-now-killed-the-ipo-market/

    Sep 23, 2016 23:49 AM

    rick rule is nothing but a gold shill and cheerleader

      b
      Sep 23, 2016 23:53 AM

      lol
      I actually agree James, he is perpetual buy buy buy.
      First time I listened to him in ages.

        Sep 23, 2016 23:31 AM

        That’s not true. Just weeks ago, he was advising taking profits. He also did not get caught by the action in 2011 and was routinely throwing cold water on the “to the moon” crowd.

        He has distinguished himself quite well from his peers and even friends.

        If he’s very bullish now, you might want to pay attention.

          Sep 23, 2016 23:55 PM

          Agreed Matthew. I remember him mentioning on 3 different interviews in August that he was taking money off the table for a pullback, and in 2014 he said numerous times that he felt the turn around was 18 months away.

          I wouldn’t call that buy, buy, buy…..

          He also sits in meetings with all the players in mining, financial institutions, and is one of the most plugged in people in the industry. I don’t look to Rick for technical turns or short-term moves, but if he macro short or macro long, I always consider his wisdom and experience.

          His points today about the VIX being at 11 and the overall complacency in the markets due to the liquidity available, seems very much to me like the calm before the storm.

            Sep 23, 2016 23:14 PM

            For people that were actually listening, even in this interview, Rick Rule mentioned that Gold is a financial instrument and would get Sold Off with all other financial assets in a Liquidity Squeeze. He gave a few historical examples (like 2001 and the 87 crash) where everything sold off, and people flocked to the 10 yr note for safety. He mentioned that in 3-6 months after such a liquidity process, that the PMs would start garnering support for additional safety and growth.

            That doesn’t sound like buy, buy, buy to the moon to me…. but I was listening to what Rick actually said.

        Sep 23, 2016 23:31 PM

        If you(b,and James)had paid attention to what Rick Rule said in 2014-2015,your trading account would be smiling at you.
        Yes.mine is,
        Thank you Mr Rick Rule

          Tad
          Sep 23, 2016 23:50 PM

          Ha ha.… exactly.
          Was taking it all in in 14. Watching and listening to these guys.… and everyone else.
          Let them run with some in 15.
          The Sprott Global PF is the best performing account I have. Bar none.

            Sep 23, 2016 23:43 PM

            RR was fairly cautious in 2014 and 2015 and I heard a number of shows where he was bullish on the longer term for precious metals and uranium, but still bearish on both for 12-18 months before he was recommending deploying capital. That would have put us at the end of 2015 to early 2016 to start deploying capital, and I’d say was fairly good advice.

            I was actually listening to what Rick Rule was saying, and what Bob Moriarty was saying, and waiting to buy until the asset was at it’s most shunned and cheap. That is precisely what I did (but regrettably with only 25-50% of the capital I wanted to deploy). In retrospect it would have been most advantageous to have gone all in the miners in January; but I rarely go all in, or sell out in one swift motion (too much risk to just plop it all down one morning IMO). My approach is always to a have a multi-teared entrance, and fade the position into strength. You sacrifice some potential gains, but limit risk and loss. It’s a bit more conservative, but in a business as risky as mining, I swing hard for the fences, but alway take a few chips off the table for a rainy day to redeploy on bargain days.

          b
          Sep 23, 2016 23:34 PM

          Im sure it is pete, those that dont are not here.

          I guess I missed RR,Morgan,Sprott etc saying to sell somewhere around the top and continueing to say “not buy” for years.
          Guess I just missed that part.

          Yes, Morgan did say something in an obscure interview once, nothing compared to screaming buy buy buy before there is no more to buy. lol

          Thats actually an old magic trick, a person looking for a reputation would place ads in every obscure paper available, then when the result became known the person shows the paper he put it in and the person becomes a prophet. lol
          old old trick.

          But what the heck, if you guys dont see someone as a continual buy person thats up to you.

            Sep 23, 2016 23:10 PM

            I saw RR on bnn market call where he was quite clear that he was taking profits during the summer because things had run so far so fast

            Sep 23, 2016 23:38 PM

            What does Morgan have to do with anything? What you claimed about Rick Rule was incorrect (that means you were wrong, B), case closed.

            Sep 23, 2016 23:11 PM

            Yes Wolfster – I saw the same BNN show, and he was on a few other interviews on Palisade, and the show with Maurice warning investors in late July and August that he was taking some money off the table expecting a short-term pull back. Most sensible people were recommending taking a few chips off the table and then to buy back in month or so.

            Matthew – I agree that what Morgan was saying has nothing to do with the criticism of RR. 2 different people.

            Again, I can think of a number of interviews on Kitco, and other shows in late 2014 and 2015 where Rick thought we were 12-18 months from the bottom and was not saying buy, buy, buy.

            It strikes me as odd that people like to make global sweeping statements that this person is sell, sell, sell, or that person is buy, buy, buy. It is the same kind of garbage that certain inattentive listeners keep heaping on Rick Ackerman about his $818 “worst case scenario” target. He NEVER said that is what he was calling for imminently, and has always stress that he takes thing from one target to the next.

            People get something in their mind, then they stop listening, and just say “oh yeah, Rick Rule just said buy, buy, buy, or Rick Ackerman was calling for $818” — Nope. Try again.

      Sep 23, 2016 23:29 PM

      Please stop insulting the guests on the KE Report

        Sep 23, 2016 23:55 PM

        +1

        I’ve never understood why people insult the guests that come on the show. It’s like booking a band to play at an event and then booing them in between songs.

        Why would they want to come back again if you act like that towards them?

    b
    Sep 23, 2016 23:49 AM

    I do believe these points were discussed here last week, too bad the people that understand it are not posting.

    Sep 23, 2016 23:51 AM

    Al has been using the word resilience for 5 years now all the way from $1900 to $1100

    Sep 23, 2016 23:57 AM

    why don’t we have people write down their “analysis”

    put it on the shelf and revisit it again 6 months from now

    rick ackerman
    doc
    rick rule
    avi g
    chris temple
    gary s
    matthew
    bird
    even bring back bo polny and roger weigand

    lets all show our cards!

    do I have a second?

      b
      Sep 23, 2016 23:07 AM

      James, ya just need to find posts/interviews from 6 months ago.

      People seem to be accurate for a time then start missing, then they get back on track.

      Bird for example was right for years but he was hated around here as he saw gold dropping.

      R Rule is buy buy buy, he wont ever change, same as Morgan,Maloney,Sprott.

      I find to really get a handle, Its Rogers,Faber and Price.
      Billionares that have no ulterior motive, they could care less where you invest your 100k

      Just listened to another Rogers
      https://youtu.be/EQZI6M5inQc

      @ sgtreport today.

    b
    Sep 23, 2016 23:59 AM

    Well, if ya look at a long enough time frame it is resilient.

    Some people just might be expecting more from gold other than it is.

    I wonder what gold will be worth when AI becomes dominant?
    Eventually there will be almost zero employment for people.
    What good is gold going to be?

    Sep 23, 2016 23:20 AM

    I am a fan of Rule Rule’s clear and intelligent commentary.

    On a different note, Rick talks about how everything gets sold in a liquidity squeeze. Sounds like some ‘dry power’ should be kept to buy at a discount. Any thoughts on how to see that squeeze coming ?

      Sep 23, 2016 23:16 PM

      One thing is to watch the advance/decline in the overall breadth of the general markets, one is to look at volumes, and another is to watch the VIX. On a technical basis watching the MACD & TRIX indicators on the S&P 500 or DOW can give some indication when they cross, and the RSI is another good indicator to see if it is over overbought and may mark a short term top.

    b
    Sep 23, 2016 23:27 AM

    BobM, Bird and Doc were suggesting Oct might be an advantageous time to purchase.

    And yes RR is clear, but he always is a buyer, is he partners with Sprotts fund?
    Does he have an association with selling phyzz?
    Pretty much all the buy buy buy people do.

    Hard to vary from the hands that feed ya.

    But heck, hes made a fortune, a smart guy.

      Sep 23, 2016 23:49 AM

      Re: “Does he have an association with selling phyzz?
      Pretty much all the buy buy buy people do.”

      B, you sound like any old Joe-blow from a youtube comments section. Have you learned anything at all in your 5 or 6 years here?

      Bullion dealers BUY “phyzz” as well as sell it and to suggest that running such a business is somehow at odds with a bullish investment outlook on the metals is completely without merit and absurd.

      By your logic, we shouldn’t trust a grocery store owner who happens to be bullish soft commodities – which, of course, is ridiculous.

        Sep 23, 2016 23:23 PM

        Well said. We already addressed inattentive listeners up above, and their preconceived ideas about someone. In many cases the pundits actually have offered a range of views, and it is actually the half-baked listeners that are the broken records mentally that only assume they are saying buy, buy, buy. That is because they aren’t listening to what the person actually said, just what they remembered them saying at one point. This is why one “shouldn’t cast their pearls before swine.”

        Apparently these “bright” listeners missed all of the interviews in 2014, and 2015 where RR was NOT saying Buy Buy Buy, but to conserve capital to deploy near the bottom. Clueless….

        People that make sophomoric comments like that aren’t REALLY listening, and just have a mental image of people but ignore what they are ACTUALLY saying.

        Ignore is the root of the word Ignorance, so what do you expect with some folks?

        b
        Sep 23, 2016 23:39 PM

        Not my fault if you cant see a connection with people that sell phyzz and promote buying.
        Sounds like you havnt learned much in your 5-6 years here.

          Sep 23, 2016 23:53 PM

          It is pretty obvious that guys like Turk, Maloney, Sprott and Schiff got into the phyz biz because they were already bullish. They did not become bullish as a result of their businesses.

          Nevertheless, those who are deterred by their business interests alone are clearly incapable of sizing up their bullish arguments and should probably not be managing their own money.

    Sep 23, 2016 23:49 AM

    The EURO mast by Destroyed and the EU ! The popeulation are still sleeping BUY COOL ! Al the BEST Thank’s AL Cory and Rick ! The best is yet to com !

      LPG
      Sep 23, 2016 23:17 PM

      Fraaaaaaaaaanky ?
      How u doing ?
      Hope all’s well w. you.
      Luv’
      LPG

        Sep 23, 2016 23:37 PM

        I ok ! GOLD looking GOOOOOD ! Europe is in a free dupe LPG we will still see something MAN ! stay cool in the bunker !

          LPG
          Sep 23, 2016 23:52 PM

          Glad you’re good Franky.
          Take care dear !
          Don’t worry: everything will be fine.
          Luv’
          LPG

          Sep 23, 2016 23:27 PM

          Franky!

          “The kick boys sleep good? DOW you think?”

          “The Shake & Shake Boys ! Cool is the Way ! BUY BUY REAL GOLD !”

            Sep 23, 2016 23:02 PM

            It’s funny, because people are incorrectly pinning the “buy, buy, buy” mantra to RR (which is totally BS and not what he was saying in 2014 or 2015), but here we have the original gold bull Franky, who has truly been consistent with “buy, buy, buy”.

            Let’s give credit where credit is due on this subject.

    Sep 24, 2016 24:24 AM

    Excelsior,
    My Point was not if RR was bullish or bearish,but had listened to what he was saying about some pm miners,and then do their own DD on them.

    As you know,not all of the miners bottomed in early 2016,some bottomed 2013 etc

    If people waited til 2016,they would have missed many very good opportunitys
    RR has made a ridiculous amount of money buying and Selling resource stocks for a long time

      Sep 24, 2016 24:18 AM

      +1
      Many miners bottomed way before 2016.

        Sep 24, 2016 24:14 AM

        You know we’re in agreement on that, and we were the one’s pointing that out to other boneheads on here all last year. 🙂

          Sep 24, 2016 24:15 AM

          By boneheads, I mean the people that kept grouping all miners together and throwing them in the same boat as worthless and poor performers. Many of those posters are conveniently missing now that the worm has turned….. not a surprise….

      Sep 24, 2016 24:10 AM

      Yes I agree with that point Pete, and my comments were really focused on the comments from some of the other posters claiming the RR was always Buy, Buy, Buy.

      We had a number of discussions on here about how many of the miners (like Claude, Guyana Goldfields, Kirkland Lake, Lakeshore Gold, Klondex, OceanaGold, Northern Star, Richmont, etc…..) all bottomed in 2013. I posted a number of comparative charts back in 2015 showing how many miners actually bottomed in 2013…… so absolutely, we are on the same page there.

      I don’t remember RR talking about those stocks having bottomed there though 🙂

    Sep 24, 2016 24:46 AM

    Excelsior,

    Yes we are in agreement,and i know what you mean by boneheads and grouping all miners together.
    And you are right,RR didn´t say that GUY.TO etc had bottomed,but at some point people have to use their own brain,and not wait for some GO signal.

    I think it is the same with uranium today,smart people say that it´s too early,but i have started some positions anyway,lets see in a few years if it was the right thing to do.
    Thanks

    BTW Excelsior,interesting article from our friend Clive Maund

    http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3099

      Sep 24, 2016 24:58 AM

      Nice. Just becareful they don’t go bankrupt while waiting.

        Sep 24, 2016 24:03 AM

        There is always risk when you invest.
        It´s much safer sitting on the sidelines.

          Sep 24, 2016 24:50 AM

          Thanks for that article from Clive. He did a pretty good job of calling the turn in Richmont Mines back in 2013 didn’t he? The ole’ Cliver….. Yes, there were people that understood not all miners are created equal in 2013, 2014 and 2015 that still made some cash on the winners.

          There were a number of contributors here on the KER that “got it” and found many of the winners that had already put in their bottom pattern in 2013/2014 (for example we were discussing on here companies like Claude, Guyana Goldfields, Kirkland Lake, Lakeshore Gold, Klondex, St Barbara, OceanaGold, Northern Star, Richmont, etc…..)

          It was quite amusing to hear the bears, who clearly were correct on the macro trend on the metals, completely blow it on the miners that were already turned for upward trajectories. If you recommended positioning in Richmont or Claude, then the bears laughed and insulted and called you a Goldtard or that bugs only say buy, buy, buy and they are all broken records. However, we didn’t let their lack of technical analysis or ability to spot a turn in many of these miners stop us from making a boatload of profits on the turn and run higher in shareprices.

          It is important to note that at the time, most of those companies were not well known or widely followed as they are now, and some got taken over. This is why betting on the safe companies isn’t always the best strategy, and it actually takes a little research, homework on the fundamental changes in the company, and understanding of technical analysis to spot turns that allows one to be “selective”.

          Cheers!

      Sep 24, 2016 24:00 AM

      I didn´t mean you,Excelsior

        Sep 24, 2016 24:38 AM

        Understood. I gotcha and agree sir.

        Ever Upward!

          Sep 24, 2016 24:06 AM

          Thank you sir.