Minimize

Welcome!

A closer look at the EU banking system situation

Cory
September 29, 2016

We have been distracted by all the headlines focused on Deutsche Bank and its struggles but we can not forget that this is just one (albeit the largest bank in the EU) of many struggling banks. The posting below by Wolf Richter over at WolfStreet.com outlines the bigger picture issue the EU is dealing with. It’s scary!

Click here for the original posting page over at WolfSteet.com

EU Banking Mayhem, One Bank at a Time, then All at Once

Investors are not amused.

The European banking crisis simply doesn’t let up. Currently, the big two German banks are grabbing the headlines away from the Italian banks, due to their size and the damage they could do to the global financial system. Other banks are in bigger trouble still, and some have already collapsed, with bailouts and bail-ins getting lined up.

Deutsche Bank had to endure a horrendous Monday after it was leaked on Friday that Merkel had refused to entertain bailing out the bank before the general elections a year from now. Merkel’s popularity has gotten broadsided recently, and bailing out bank bondholders with taxpayer money is just not popular at the moment.

Then Commerzbank, in which the government already owns a stake of 16% as a result of the bailout during the Financial Crisis, graced the headlines with leaks that it would lay off 9,000 employees, nearly one-fifth of its workforce. This will cost about €1 billion, according to the sources. To pay for it, the bank will scrap its dividend for 2016 to reduce the bleeding and preserve capital, in what is turning out to be the hellish environment of negative interest rates.

We’ve been writing about the European banking crisis for a long time, it seems, as it drags on, and meanders from one country to another, and sometimes we write about it in an amused fashion because we’ve got to keep our sense of humor in all this gloom.

But investors who believed in all the hype and in Draghi’s promises and in Merkel’s strength and in the willingness of all of them to do whatever it takes to protect bank bondholders and stockholders, and who believed in the miracle of Spain’s recovery, and in Italy’s new government and what not – well, they’re not amused.

For them, it has been bloody. The global financial crisis got swept under the rug. Then the euro debt crisis took down some banks at the periphery, and taxpayers stepped in to bail out the bondholders, mostly, and a lot more things got swept under the rug. But the problems weren’t solved. And as the decomposing assets under the rug kept exuding their pungent odor, investors held their nose and played along for a while.

But now it’s just getting worse. And investors are wondering what exactly is under these rugs – or maybe they’d rather not know for it’s too ugly to behold. And every time someone does look, for example at the Italian banks, they find even bigger problems that have started to metastasize.

This banking crisis has the potential to transmogrify into a financial crisis. All it takes is for one of the big ones to suddenly topple. The flow of credit would freeze up instantly. In an economic system that depends on credit, and whose lifeblood is credit, such an event is a financial crisis.

The problem isn’t restricted to a couple of Italian or German banks. It’s deep and wide.

Here are the 29 banks in the ESTX Banks Index of Eurozone banks (so Swiss and UK banks, for example are not included). It shows the percentage drop from their 52-week high. But for some of these banks, particularly for Italian and Portuguese banks, that 52-week high was just about last year’s 52-week low, so relentless has their decline been over the years. Some of them had already been reduced to penny stocks years ago, and for them, in euro terms, the biggest losses occurred back then. So these mayhem banks, color coded by country:

eurozone-bank-estx_from-52-week-high

If a bank stock plunges from €0.04 to €0.01 over the 52-week period, such as Banco Comercial Português in Portugal, it has been toast for longer than 52 weeks, and the percentage plunge is essentially meaningless because shares were worthless to begin with.

The shares of five of these banks trade under €1. Another 8 banks trade under €3. These 29 banks form a big part of the European financial system. It includes some of the world’s largest banks, such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas. It includes a slew of other “systemically important financial institutions,” such as Unicredit, ING, and Santander.

They’re troubled at the same time. The can has been kicked down the road for years. Now negative interest rates appear to have inadvertently crushed the can.

So when will Merkel buckle? Read…  Deutsche Bank in Free Fall. Shares, CoCo Bonds Plunge. Merkel Gives Cold Shoulder on Bailout. Bank Denies Everything

Discussion
12 Comments
    CFS
    Sep 29, 2016 29:25 AM

    My last three attempts to post have disappeared….this is a check.

    CFS
    Sep 29, 2016 29:32 AM

    I wanted to post a link to an article by Erika Nolan about predictable black swans, which she calls gray swans, on linked-in, the the link somehow causes my attempt to vanish.
    You have enough information to get to it now indepently, if this posts!

    CFS
    Sep 29, 2016 29:34 AM

    Independently……my iPad has humor, perhaps, but it is slow!

    Sep 29, 2016 29:32 AM

    Meanwhile Chinese capital is flowing into Britain after Brexit, mostly London and other foreign real estate centers like Canada, Australia, and The US. It could be as much as 200 billion a year for the next ten years. I know Europe has much more stringent rules for foreign ownership of residential real estate. China has over 168 cities with more than one million people according to an article on Drudge. This is so crazy, the money they have been printing is flowing to our shores as well in huge amounts. This allocation of capital is distorting the world’s financial markets.

      Sep 29, 2016 29:55 AM

      I think the Chineese are using paper to buy hard assets b/c they believe a time will come when the paper is worthless. The hard assets will preserve some value.

      You could wait for the crash to buy the hard assets at a discount, but you’d have to have something to buy them with, something that held value. Gold.

    Sep 29, 2016 29:50 AM

    “So when will Merkel buckle? ”

    That’s the trillion dollar question. She does not act alone. She will do what her handlers tell her to do, as she did during the Greek crisis. What she will “decide” will tell us what THEY have planned.

    Sep 29, 2016 29:06 PM

    If Merkel holds fast, there is always the old standby, the FED!

      Sep 29, 2016 29:16 PM

      I think it would be very problematic for the private US Federal Reserve banking cartel to justify ponying up that kind of money.

      Merkel will do what she is told – in the end.

        Sep 29, 2016 29:26 PM

        If I recall, during the bailout in 2008, The Fed did provide funds to Foreign banks and was heavily criticized. Hence the reason for my thought above.

    Sep 29, 2016 29:33 PM

    She the United States citizens find out the FED is going to bail out German, Italian and Spanish banks there is going to be hell to pay.

    There will be blood in the streets.

    GH
    Sep 29, 2016 29:15 PM

    I’d take the other side of that bet.

    That American people have swallowed countless outrages in recent years. What would it take to tip the scales now? Hunger would do the trick. Short of that…I’m not sure. In any case, if the herd should finally stampede, we’ve now got total surveillance and militarized police.

      GH
      Sep 29, 2016 29:16 PM

      That was in response to Jtl’s comment right above.