Technical and general comments on the US markets
Today we get Rick to take a look at the US markets from a technical outlook as well as general comments on why he thinks it will fall so far. Rick has some pretty scary targets for how low the Dow could fall. Of course a severe fall would impact more than just investors in the US.
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If the expectation of DOW 3000 is justified, it would seem that the only appropriate action to take is to get out of the markets while they are still near their record highs. Then you wait…
Agreed with one small difference…….add a few shares of SPXS.
I must first preface this by saying I haven’t listened to a RA interview (or anyone else) in many weeks.
After listening to this I am reminded why.
RA uses words like “nutty” and “lunatic” and so on to des ribs this market and its participants.
RA can’t get his head around this market, and having missed the greatest bull market in history, all he could do is keep spouting how insane and nutty it is.
He hates this bull market.
He says people in it need to take “stock” of the stocks.
I think he needs to take stock of himself.
When prompted for where this market could go, he stated unequivocally DOW 3000.
Ow before I prematurely actually take him at his word I will give him another chance to clarify his position.
After all when he declared several times gold was going to $850 and the $ was going to 120 I was lambasted by several participants saying that wasn’t RA position.
I’m sorry I thought was just meant what he was saying.
RA is a died in the wool deflationist.
He is expecting, anticipating and hoping for this “demand for dollars”
He might change his calls but he cannot change his skin.
So RA I will give you another opportunity – is the DOW GOING TO 3000 or is this just words being spewed out?
Is this just worst case scenario or is this a real call?
I could throw out worst and best case scenarios too, but it adds no value.
I mentioned several times RA calls are very dangerous to your bankroll.
He has derided this bull market in equities it’s entire time up, he has called for a 120 $ and an $850 gold price.
So before the DOW goes to 30,000 and you change your position and say I am taking it one step at a time, here is a final chance to retract your DOW 3000 call.
Speak now or forever hold your peace.
There are lot of crazy experts out there that have been calling for Dow 3000 and Gold 3000 at the same time which is never happening.
The Dow bottomed at roughly 1.3 ounces of gold in 1980. If that were to happen this time, I think it would be more likely to occur at about 9,000 gold and 11,700 Dow. The dollar can and will get smoked; the deflationists are apparently incapable of grasping this.
Considering the size of the Dow-Gold bubble of 1999, there is a good argument to be made that the Dow-Gold ratio could go below one ounce.
Whether is does or not, there is no reason to think that the Dow won’t go, at least, below two ounces.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart
+1
It doesn’t make much sense to project prices in terms of dollars at this point. It’s a bit like using a ruler made of silly putty.
funny analogy GH.
Nice chart Mathew.
Since everyone focuses on gold’s spectacular blow-off top that occurred in late January, 1980, I wonder how many know that, despite that spike versus the dollar, the Dow-gold ratio remained under 2 for pretty much the rest of that year. This shows that one did not have to be a top-picking pro to make the switch from gold to stocks at the right time. Yes, there is a large percentage difference between 1.3 and 2 – and that could cause some stress to the investor in the moment and for awhile after, but in the grand scheme of things, anyone who swapped their gold for stocks that year looked pretty darn smart in retrospect (because they were).
Something else that a lot of people miss is the fact that the Dow actually bottomed six years earlier when priced in dollars rather than gold.
I believe that the current cycle is unfolding similarly and that the 2008 low was THE low. 2008 is our 1974.
On the following chart, you can see that the Dow was well above its nominal low of ’74 by the time it reached its real low (versus gold) in 1980:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/img/100-100.png
On the same subject: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1475155443.php
Silverdollar:
That S&P chart is a trainwreck waiting to happen.It must give the Central Bankers nightmares.
Silverdollar – Good charts in that article and thanks for posting it.
The S&P will take the elevator back down soon enough…..
A ‘Minsky Moment’ does not require a parabolic blow-off top, just saturation in the credit markets:
http://dir.richardsongmp.com/web/macbeth.team/blog/1190886-Canadas-Minsky-moment
Fran Six, reefsandals4eva wrote the below at Stockhouse. Can you help them out?
Agoracom won’t let me register for some reason, I’m not sure why I’m having trouble with the site. Fran six claims in order to be a shareholder after all this carries out, you have to be a shareholder 60 days prior to coming under the BIA …. I’ve held a position for a long time in this company. This is really splitting hairs here. If the numbers you’re talking here are correct. This should be positive either way. 284.74 million divided by 30 or divided by 10? which is it? you’ve had real trouble explaining this clearly. You claim that all the shares in GBRIF are going to be changed to Preferred shares, All my shares are currently in GBRIF. GBN.H didn’t even start until after the halt, so the people claiming to own GBN.H are either full of it or know how to buy a share in something that’s halted. How is it possible that you can select which shares you value at which price?
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#FG6QDcA0JLw32i1G.99
I think 3,000 would be global depression.
I think they will print, print long before that but I could see several thousand points lost on the DOW in a matter of a few weeks.
Pretty dark Rick A. Wish I could disagree. Sounds like hard assets and firearms to protect them might be a good idea.