It’s hard to argue with Doc’s current investing strategy
With Doc today we begin by analyzing his current investment strategy and look forward to the key markets he is watching. With so many markets range bound the question is when will we see a significant move and how it will impact related markets.
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Doc,
Interesting,about the late 2017 to 2018 time frame,2 other people that i “follow” are talking about that time frame.
BTW, Doc
Do you remember me asking you(what your technicals say) about one of my oil and gas juniors,YGR.TO on the blog?.i can´t find that post.
Anyway,if you have the time could you comment on Yangarras technicals?
Thanks
Pete, there’s not a lot to dislike about this company’s technicals.This thing is just itching to head higher. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of downside risk. Thanks for alerting me about this company—I’m going to look at their fundamentals and see if there is potential from that aspect. It may trade in a trading range for awhile and on the monthly, it’s hitting its’ head on the 50 month EMA. If it can close above that you might have the start of a long term moving trend in the positive. The daily chart is suggesting a short term trend up and the weekly chart just took out a previous high—both of these are positives.
Thank you Doc,much appreciated.
Guys, everything is being painted.
Don’t you think the Treasury ESF was in the market pushing it up this morning?
Things have trends associated with public sentiment, but the Fed and the ESF are painting everything with camouflage. We know the BOJ IS Manipulating the Japanese stork market. We know Norway and Switzerland were buying mining stocks earlier this years.
We KNOW interest rates are manipulated, I.e. The bond markets is rigged.
Given all of the above, why do you believe that anything other than small stocks have a free market?
And even small stocks are affected by sentiment, which is being modified by manipulation.
So why do you think major charts are telling you anything other than what the Fed and the ESF want you to see?
My iPad and my mistyping messed that up!
Basically I am saying that charts can be rigged, and thus may not tell the truth.
Fundamentals cannot be rigged. Sure there is obfuscation, use of mis-leading statistics, but most of the lies can be spotted and seen through, and adjustments made.
CFS,
Charts can probably be rigged short term,but long term,i think not.
I don’t disagree with you, but markets are substantially driven by short term sentiment and feelings.
Corrections (up and down) occur because of long term considerations.
Eric Sprott, on how things will go, 9/30
https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-93016
I’m with Robert Friedland (and Ross Beaty) when it comes to lithium.
Why This Lithium CEO Is ‘Heavily’ Invested In Gold
I’m a big fan of Robert Friedland and Ross Beaty and am invested in some of their companies, however, while I agree with Robert and Ross on a few points, and definitely the frothiness and worthlessness of 95% of the Lithium companies which are nothing more than marketing fluff.
There is a legitimate need in back up batteries to make Solar and Wind more viable, an actual growth in ceramics & glass demand, the Electronic Vehicles market (not just cars, but buses, planes, and electric bikes), and the batteries that power the laptops, tablets, smart phones, power tools, drones, etc… that the emerging world is going to want.
There are legitimate Lithium companies that I’ve been following for years that have become producers like Orocobre, Galaxy Resources and NeoMetals. There are also real development stage companies like Lithium Americas corp (50/50 JV partner is SQM), Pilbara Minerals, and Nemaska Lithium. Critical Elements corp, Dajin Resources, Bacanora Minerals, and Pure Energy Minerals may have a chance as well, but have much more work to do. The other 70+ companies are highly suspect and we really only need another 2-4 companies beyond the 3 new producers (Orocobre/Galaxy/Neometals) and the 3 primary development companies (Lithium Americas/Pilbara/Nemaska).
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Speaking of marketing fluff….. Here is Kitco’s response to Robert Friedland’s position using Lithium X (Frank Giustra company), which has struck out twice in a row, but are giving it a 3rd try to find a real deposit. That hasn’t stopped masses from flooding into their stock and giving the spotlight to them over the valid Lithium companies that have still gone rather unnoticed. This is an example of where investors put all the weight in the management team, but none into their assets. The problem is that the great management teams in Lithium aren’t as well known as the gold or silver teams, but they are in the aforementioned companies.
Anyway, here’s the Lithium X response. He is quite bullish on gold and seems like a sharp young man, but I have not been a big fan of all they hype they have got for doing nothing more than run their mouths. Maybe it will be 3 times a charm and their S. American salar will turn out to be a winner….
Lithium to End in Tears Says Friedland – CEO Responds
Sep 30, 2016
Guest(s): Brian Paes-Braga CEO, LiTHIUM X
“Although he is focused mainly in the lithium space, LiTHIUM-X CEO Brian Paes-Braga says he is also “heavily” invested in gold. “It’s had a good run this year, I think it’ll take a little bit of a breather,” he told Kitco News at the Mines & Money event in Toronto. “But, with the Fed keeping interest rates idle, which I think will continue, I think the U.S. dollar is going to come off a bit and that’ll be good for gold.” According to the young CEO, the lithium space also has huge growth potential, noting that the consensus is calling for the market to triple over time.”
Ha! Matthew I should have clicked on your link first and apologize for the double post. Your’s didn’t say Kitco, so I figured it was the Robert Friedland talk about Copper.
Funny.
It also had a different title.
Excelsior,
Do you have any idea
When there is talk of bringing internet to rural India / Africa and so forth, they need the battery backup power as it is way too expensive to electrify these areas. However, a solar or wind generator changes the game. Now, with reserve capacity, you got your own power cell. Solar has come down now but Lithium backup still way too expensive for these areas. Even solar is too expensive, but we are seeing the very beginning of the trend.
Oops sorry, first part got cut.
Any idea on any beta developments of these backup lithium reserve power projects in third world areas?
There is quite a bit of information on Energy Storage on this website.
One of the companies getting the most investor attention in energy storage is Eguana Technologies.
Eguana Technologies Corporate Presentation:
http://www.eguanatech.com/_resources/presentations/EGT_Presentation_1606.pdf
Here’s another Battery company focused on backup power and global electrification.
The New – Electrovaya TSX:EFL OTCQX:EFLVF
Superior Lithium Ion Batteries for Energy Storage and E-Mobility
Here’s another Lithium Ion battery company [Oakridge Global Energy] that services the misc vehicles like tractors, ATVs, Boats, Golf Carts, Radio Controlled, Snowmobiles, Jet Skis etc…..
NYC Sets New Goals for Energy Storage and Solar Capacity
Sep 28, 2016 – By PennWell Editors
California Ramps Up Energy Storage Plans with Enactment of Four New Bills
September 28, 2016 – By Andrew Burger
Massachusetts Goes All-In on Energy Storage
September 21, 2016 – By Todd Olinsky-Paul
The trend is happening…..
Personally, I choose to take an interest in trends that are developing for investment purposes, but get that some people are not interested in this component of the Energy discussion or ridicule it without understanding the pace of change or implementation that is occurring real time all over the planet.
The Future Lies In Lithium – Speaker
Sep 26, 2016
Guest(s): Chris Berry President, House Mountain Partners
Excelsior,
You the man. Thank you for the info. Much appreciated.
I had looked at this concept over two years ago and recently have not had the time to follow up.
And yes, I agree, the first leg run in these things always occurs at about now. Then after a severe correction, the mass accumulation begins.
Always glad to share good ideas Richard.
Like the Tony Seba video pointed out that has been posted on the KER several times now…… Originally people that were used to taking horses everywhere scoffed at the automobile and saw it as a novelty or a toy for the wealthy. Well, we know how that worked out.
In much the same way, Electric Cars, Electric Buses, and Electric Bikes are gaining traction, and over the next decade they’ll make up a much larger part of the vehicle marketplace. Many cities want electric bus fleets or electric ride-share programs to cut down on smog and pollution. It just makes sense.
Regardless of if EVs ever happen, my point in this thread was that Battery Backup power is a huge developing industry, and it is most crucial to store the energy created in Solar & Wind into a form that can be released consistently to the energy grid. This is a huge driver for Lithium, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt…….
It cracks me up when people go out of their way to dog Lithium, (and generally they have done very little personal research into this marketplace). I’m quite comfortable being a contrarian investor, and witnessed the same critique and jabs thrown at Gold/Silver, people go out of their way to hate on Uranium/Nuclear power, they go out of their way to rip on Renewable Energy, and they likewise go out of their way to scoff at Lithium demand.
This reminds me of what Arthur Schopenhauer said about any new revolutionary idea:
“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
So let’s see how this applies to Lithium as Energy Storage:
1) First it is ridculed (X check)
2) Second, it is violently opposed. (X Check)
3) Third, it is accepted as being self-evident (In the process of becoming self-evident)
Richard, I don’t know about India/Africa, but my impression in South America, at least in my area, is that the main market for renewables + storage is for farmers/ranchers. They have the capital and the need. But they’re a small portion of the population.
Much of the population makes enough to stay clothed and fed, and that’s about it, so I doubt the majority will be part of the market for the foreseeable future. They very well may steal your solar panels, though!!
On the other hand, everyone’s got their ‘smartphone’, and it looks like plenty are buying the portable rechargers as well. So there’s definitely demand. And if there is an electric car revolution, they would certainly be participating in that, even if it’s at a low per-capita level.
Yes, there’s plenty of demand for lithium but there’s also plenty of supply. Notice that the CEO in the video I linked talked about being able to time the market rather than giving reasons for optimism about the supply/demand picture.
As with gold miners who hedge, I don’t buy resource stocks because I want the management to time the market for me. The only exception to this would be managers who know when to do equity offerings. Way too many teams are terrible at that.
Good point Matthew. Like I mentioned in my response to you up above, to many have hung their hat on the management team at Lithium X to “time the cycle” but like you mentioned, that is incredibly difficult to do. So far they have been all talk and marketing glitz, but didn’t find what they were looking for at their first 2 assets and have moved on to their 3rd.
There are many real and legitimate Lithium companies we discussed on here that will supply the demand like the new producers Orocobre, Galaxy Resources, and NeoMetals, and the development companies Lithium Americas Corp, Pilbara Minerals, and Nemaska Lithium.
There may be room for a few more like Critical Elements Corp, Bacanora Minerals, Dajin Resources, and possibly a few more, and maybe Lithium X will finally find something of value in S. America, but the world doesn’t need 70-80 new lithium companies….. that is for sure….and why investors need to disregard the marketing fluff and stick with the producing or advanced deposits that actually have a future.
Don Coxe on gold:
Dear Miners, Beware of M&A – Sincerely, KPMG
Matthew, I posted that also earlier. The guy did not actually know anything about miners/mining.
This guy is interesting:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zXISaQ4z6AI
I posted it because of his comments about M&A, which I agree with.
I liked Lee’s comments on M&A as well about the clashing of two corporate cultures, and not having a proper integration plan. Also he mentioned how different it was for the teams that were used to being owned and managed by a Major like Rio Tinto or BHP and then they were sold to small companies with a different philosophy and approach. It can actually be a drag until it all gets sorted out, and can cause the company to miss guidance or expectations, introducing doubt, and it may create a perception that takes the new company a little while to dispel.
It should also be mentioned that there are mergers that go exceedingly well and hit the ground running with synergy and improved results. I thought the merger between Scorpio Silver and U.S. Silver & Gold went exceedingly well, and they’ve done nothing but continue to improve the metrics of the operations. The Uranerz takeover by Energy Fuels was great, and has been incredibly synergistic. The recent takeover of Reservoir Minerals by Nevsun, or Mines & Management by Hecla, or Kaminak gold by Goldcorp, or Northhair Silver by Kootenay all seem to have gone quite well actually.
Maybe this well executed merger will be the case for Kirkland Lake and NewMarket Gold. I’m anticipating good synergy between Teranga Gold and Gryphon Minerals who they are currently taking over because the know the terrain, and will have good experience in working in those jurisdictions and the 3rd party vendors & contractors for drilling, construction, power, etc…. are the same often times.
I guess the point is that while many mergers have been flubbed or have been a mess that took down the new combined company, I think they’d find that they work out more often in mining compared to other industries, and Lee did allude to that a little bit. In particular when companies have a certain expertise with a particular commodity, or in a specific jurisdiction, then this can make mergers in that environment quite successful.
I strongly agree with you about the merger between Scorpio Silver and U.S. Silver & Gold.
I can’t comment on the others you mentioned because I am not nearly familiar enough with them.
Yeup, Americas Silver Corp (the combine Scorpio Silver and US Silver & Gold) is transformed company, with costs coming down, and economics improving, and they are ready to rock during the next few years as the PM bull market unfolds.
I’ve added a bit more recently, and am thinking of even adding more, because I feel very comfortable with them for the long haul.
I’ve mostly been adding to Brixton, Impact, and Avino though.
One chart nobody in their right mind would look at would be the monthly chart in your favourite volatility bull + ETF. The volume is soectacular, if anything, but so are investor losses in these ETFs:
How will the markets look when it all comes to naught?
Hi Doc, we’ve never talked before but today, I must say, I have the feeling that you are talking out of both sides of your mouth when you say you can see where gold will track sideways to down through 2017. Excuse me? Why…it was only recently you were saying 2016 was the transition year and 2017 would be up and away and you were going to ride the bull for hopefully many years. So which is it man? Or…are you just confused like the rest of us/
One of the best interviews I’ve heard in a long time.
Seems to me people will move to dollars as this DB issue continues.
As for other countries dropping the dollar, been happening for some time now, its time for a change in the world reserve currency, but that takes time.
People still vue the dollar as a safe haven, informed people might even see the end of the euro as a possibility, thats alot of dollar buying.
Course thats been talked about here and other places before, nothing new I guess.