A market wrap considering the moves for the week, month and quarter
A quick little market wrap for everyone with a focus on the US markets and gold and silver. We are now through the summer months and although we typically see a bit more volatility the technicals are showing signs of slow moving markets. We are getting close to some short term technical levels that need to be considered.
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Gold on the SGE closed almost $12 higher than the U.S.
CFS,
What’s your point re: SGE closing and US closing price of gold ?
LPG
US will tend to go up on Monday or SGE down. This is a larger than usual difference.
OK. Got it CFS. Thanks for the explanation.
The way I see is the following: my understanding is that the SGE afternoon fix starts at 14:15, which corresponds to 2:15am EST.
If you take a look at which price gold traded at at around 2:15EST, you realize it is close to the SGE’s PM fix. Then, you have a couple of hours of trading (London, NYC) and the price fluctuates till the close in NYC.
So to me, the difference in price you’ve noticed is just reflective price action for a few hours AFTER the SGE’s PM fix. Said it differently, the price difference is meaningless to me as it is just reflective of price action as time passes by…. it could be +$5, +$10, +$20, -$40, -18…. it wouldn’t mean anything to me.
My 2cts.
LPG
Shanghai morning fix Sept 29 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1329.99
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1324.25 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1326.88
NY ACCESS PRICE: 1322.00 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
This is a bigger than average spread.
On Monday, the current spread, which is standing at almost $12, WILL narrow.
Further, I suspect the rate of draining of physical metal from the US to China due to arbitrage will probably correlate with the size of the spread.
Since the manipulation of prices via the COMEX/GLOBEX will only end when the physical supply runs out or very low, the rate of movement of physical (accumulated) is relevant to estimating at what point the COMEX pricing may end.
That is my point in tracking SGE pricing.
If you don’t believe in manipulation of prices, there is no point in tracking this differential.
CFS,
You confuse several things, namely:
1) a spread occuring at the same time, which could lead to potential arbitrage opportunities – ASSUMING you’re looking at prices for the same contract
2) a spread at different times – which is due to price action as time passes by – and which therefore is totally irrelevant. I repeat: totally irrelevant. Now if you think that it is relevant and that makes you happy or intellectually satisfied: good for you.
3) manipulation of Comex prices which “will only end”.
Prices in any market are pushed around (you can call it “manipulation”) big the big hands. It works both ways: on the way up, and on the way down. If you still haven’t figure it out, I can’t help you.
So, if I may, I kindly suggest you do yourself a huge intellectual and investing favor: stop talking about manipulation only when prices are going down and accept manipulation in any market as an inherent characteristic of ANY market, and move on.
My 2cts.
LPG
Jay Taylor’s picks discussed
http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-metals/12216/
Golden Predator, Silvercrest, Auryn.
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index just had a very good week and is ready to go higher from here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25211150204&a=380003501
It is also ready to start a move higher when priced in gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93612813425&a=378282313
The euro had a good day and looks like it wants to move up but that ADX indicator says maybe not just yet…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p42511403050&a=477637674
Bob Hoye is absolutely right about CO2 but I think he’s going to be wrong about oil…
http://www.howestreet.com/2016/09/30/crude-rally-expected-to-be-short-lived/
The weekly oil chart is looking very promising:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68214996643&a=456688591
USDX could fall hard versus oil:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24WTIC&p=W&yr=7&mn=11&dy=0&id=p78483422663&a=384215562
Great chart, thanks 🙂
The fact that some relatively high cost producers and stocks like Transocean have recently been going up does not fit in with dropping oil prices.
I didn’t know about that but I agree. What you noticed looks pretty valuable to me:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p64449711470&a=479758029
Like I have said many times, most folks look at price action only, but a lot of info is contained in volume.
CFS – I agree with looking at volume (increases/decreases) as well. It can show overall conviction (or lack thereof), or a huge spike may indicate institutional investors buying/selling.
Thanks Cory, Interesting to hear a breakdown of the markets in this way.
What market
Armstrong’s report might be a good listen to, see Cfs post earlier
Korelin my ore-linK, or am I putting the cart before the horse?