Is oil about to breakout above $50/barrel?
In today’s market wrap we focus on the recent moves in oil. On the heals of the recent production cut (albeit a small one) oil continues to move higher. The question will be in the next couple days if this run can takeout the $50/barrel level…
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Which bank Jerry?
Not sure ,was checking with a couple of sites, ..Sinclair site and zerohedge.
Says the atm were not allowing transactions
TBA
The dollar vigilante reported
TD bank
thx jerry
td is one of the banks i have accounts with.
my broker webbroker as well.
thats a huge risk for investors that doesnt get mentioned (too scary maybe)
What dif does winning make when you cant collect?
silly to have more with a broker than you can throw away without concern.
You are welcome b.
Hope it wasn’t the Bank of Montreal where CEF stores its bullion!
Report says TD
The US Fiscal budget year is over.
The economy is doing according to the big liar in the White House.
The numbers are in, so what do you think the US deficit was for fiscal 2016?
The national debt – after having been successfully disappeared from public discussion – has jumped by $1.38 trillion in fiscal 2016, which ended Friday.
So no mater what numbers are reported, spun, or talked about, my belief is the ACTUAL deficit was $1.38 Trillion.
Of course, Bill Clinton has always claimed he balanced the budget.
Whereas, in fact, the National debt increased in every year of his reign.
And, of course, back then the Republicans were not so cur runt and Newt Gingrich kept on leading “reductions” of spending.
(Nothing actually y went down…..just less than originally projected)
We seriously need zero base budgeting.
I type “corrupt” and my iPad produces “cur runt”
I typed “cur runt” and my Ipad produces “KER rant”
IPhone has a mind of it’s own…
Only kidding I have a Galaxy, but I get tickled by the CFS vs Iphone ongoing lexicon tug-o-war.
Zerohedge just came out with a $1.42 Trillion deficit, so I yield to their numbers.
My comment came out an hour ahead of theirs though!
The point really was about the economy under the big zero not being great, and certainly no where near a great as he claims.
Not to bad,since the Pentagon can not find $6.5 trillion
Td webroker often jams or gets hacked possibly. It gets slow right at the open when you need it on high volatility/volume days.
Russia Kills 30 US, Israeli, British Officers Believed To Be Assisting ISIS
by Whitney Webb, The Activist Post:
As part of an ongoing offensive against militant-held sectors of Aleppo, Russian warships hit a military operations center near the city, killing 30 Israeli, US, Saudi, and British officers who were allegedly offering support and intelligence to ISIS militants in Syria. The strike came following a failed ceasefire in the embattled country, which was ultimately derailed after being violated multiple times by US-backed militant groups, the US, and Israel.
Story @ sgt report or The Activist Post
40 Million Russians To Take Part In “Nuclear Disaster” Drill, Days After US General Warns Of War With Moscow Zerohedge
We are so toast
Can anyone even imagine 40 million north americans taking part in any kind of drill?
Bernie…..Says…”the business model of the largest banking institutions around the world is FRAUD..”…(like duh)…..
zerohedge
One thing that happened to a convenient way of measuring interest rates vs. inflation is that Pring’s Inflation Index dropped -30% one day, rendering the index useless in attempting to forecast any rise or drop in the gold price comparing it with the $TNX. If you discount the 30% drop, gold prices should stay where they are. There was no measurable change in commodities stocks to justify a change in !PRII to this extent.
Stockcharts.com is not replying to my complaints on this particular skew in the data.
I was thinking that you could probably instead of using oil stocks, to use a single bellwether stock for inflation, FNV against the $TNX, much like Pring’s index, now that index is out of order:
Suddenly this chart makes good sense in the weekly format, not as dramatically good as the TNX/PRII,but a functional substitute. The $U.S. is the missing variable, of course:
That is a great chart, I think I’ll keep it.
I had been looking at the TNX:PRII chart ever since you first posted it last year.
Thanks.
No way to fudge FNV.
How Big Oil Conquered the World
From farm to pharmaceutical, diesel truck to dinner plate, pipeline to plastic product, it is impossible to think of an area of our modern-day lives that is not affected by the oil industry. The story of oil is the story of the modern world. And this is the story of those who helped shape that world, and how the oil-igarchy they created is on the verge of monopolizing life itself.
The forward skew in gold has been improving:
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Z16_Z21.E&v=dmax&t=l&a=0&w=1
The pot add was interesting Fran.
My goldshares down again today, pot shares up again,across the board, maybe they have finally disconected.
On days like dis we used to get comment from the feathers. No comment today? Nobody say nothing. Who is know gold here?
WOW! – Precious Metals stocks are getting the stuffing beat out of em’ this morning…
I’ve been buying like a madman this morning as everything goes on clearance sale, and it is on days like this that I wish I had even more dry powder to deploy.
Gold at $1285 and Silver at $18.32 seems like a good place to start buying the dip with conviction. If they sink lower over the balance of this week, pulling down the miners even lower, then I’m going to kick out my last dry powder.
Investors that missed the initial bull run in 2016 and don’t have any positions in miners should at least start a position in the companies they like in these kinds of market conditions.
If the miners completely fall out of bed in October, then add even more into the weakness.
Silver Mining Stocks on Sale: Symbol % Chg
AZARGA METALS CORPORATION EUUNF -42.56%
METALLIC MINERALS CORPORATION MMNGF -20.86%
SIERRA METALS INC DBEXF -16.56%
CANARC RESOURCE CORPORATION CRCUF -15.47%
SANTACRUZ SILVER MINING LTD SZSMF -15.06%
GOGOLD RESOURCES INC GLGDF -14.46%
IMPACT SILVER CORPORATION ISVLF -13.03%
SOUTHERN SILVER EXPLORATION CORP SSVFF -11.97%
EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXLLF -10.94%
SILVER SPRUCE RESOURCES INC SSEBF -10.80%
AMERICAS SILVER CORPORATION USAPF -10.64%
OREX MINERALS INCORPORATED ORMNF -10.60%
BRIXTON METALS CORP BXTMF -10.41%
SILVERCORP METALS INC SVMLF -8.98%
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC FSM -8.63%
SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC SSRI -8.55%
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORPORATION AG -8.53%
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORPORATION EXK -8.45%
TAHOE RESOURCES INC TAHO -7.93%
GOLDEN ARROW RESOURCE CORP GARWF -7.89%
VELOCITYSHS 3X LONG SILVER USLV -7.86%
MAG SILVER CORPORATION MAG -7.77%
AVINO SILVER & GOLD MINES LTD ASM -7.71%
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORPORATION PAAS -7.28%
AURCANA CORPORATION AUNFF -7.26%
PUREFUNDS ISE JUNIOR SILVER SILJ -6.59%
ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL SILVER MINERS SLVP -6.29%
GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS SIL -6.22%
LEVON RES LIMITED LVNVF -6.19%
COEUR MINING INC CDE -6.01%
SILVER WHEATON CORPORATION SLW -5.98%
DEFIANCE SILVER CORP DNCVF -5.93%
ALEXCO RESOURCE CORPORATION AXU -5.46%
HECLA MINING COMPANY HL -5.22%
BEAR CREEK MINING CORPORATION BCEKF -5.10%
NICOLA MNG INC HUSIF -4.96%
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC HCHDF -4.83%
GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED GPL -4.80%
GOLDEN MINERALS COMPANY AUMN -4.70%
ARIZONA MINING INC WLDVF -3.41%
SILVERCREST METALS INC SVCMF -3.13%
POWER SHARES DB SILVER DBS -2.63%
SPROTT PHYSICAL SILVER TRUST ETF PSLV -2.61%
CREDIT SUISSE X-LINKS SILVER SHARES COVERED SLVO -2.59%
ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER SHARES SIVR -2.56%
ISHARES SILVER SHARES SLV -2.53%
KOOTENAY SILVER INC KOOYF -0.03%
Notice that some of the top performing companies that rose the most at the beginning of the year are also the same ones selling off the hardest at present. Silver is more volatile than Gold, and thus the Jr Silver miners are a wild ride to the upside and downside. Make a note of some of the highest torque companies to the downside on days like this, as when things turn back up later in the month, they’ll have similar moves to the upside.
Can the Rally in Silver Continue?
Silver has soared this year, because of a multitude of factors, like the Federal Reserve, foreign buyers and more. But can it continue?
Chris Ciaccia Chris Ciaccia Follow Sep 27, 2016
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13752006/1/can-the-rally-in-silver-continue.html
Gold price is getting crushed
Frik Els | 20 minutes ago
Bayhorse Silver (TSXV:BHS) started its drilling program on its Bridging the Gap project
Bayhorse Silver has started its drilling program on its Bridging the Gap silver-lead-zinc project. The Bridging the Gap project is located in the highly prolific silver producing district of the “Silver Valley” in northern Idaho, adjacent to the Bunker Hill Mine.
Gold Tumbles Below $1300, Yen Crashes As Fed Rate-Hike Odds Rise
Oct 4, 2016 – Tyler Durden
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-04/gold-tumbles-below-1300-yen-crashes?
Bought Impact today in the low 60s.
Yes, Impact is a good one, and longer term we’ll long for prices like these.
I’ve been buying quite a few Silver and Gold stocks today, but also anticipate a little more weakness still, and if we see that, I’ll be adding in a major way.
Hope all is well sir and may your investments be prosperous.
Argonaut Gold looks ready for a bounce off the $3 level, just a guess, not advice.
Yes, Argonaut is one of the Gold stocks I’ve traded in and out of the last 2 years and I’ve been debating grabbing some if it sells off a bit more. It had a great run earlier this year like many stocks, but it seems to have some extra oomph to it for sure. Following Argonaut closely is how I became interested in Minera Alamos when they scooped up an Argonaut property that they are working to put into production.
Good stuff Dan, calgary.
$ROG $ROGFF #GOLD #AFRICA #BURKINAFASO #PRODUCTION
Roxgold produces 32,987 ounces of gold during the third quarter and declares commercial production at Yaramoko gold mine in Burkina Faso
TORONTO, Oct. 4, 2016
There Are Still Good, Undervalued Gold Stocks Out There, You Might Like This One
Oct. 4, 2016
$GSC $GSS Golden Star Resources #GOLD #PRODUCTION #GHANA #AFRICA
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4009945-still-good-undervalued-gold-stocks-might-like-one
I still don’t feel the Silver market has properly digested this news release due to all the weakness in metals and miners the last few weeks, but once they do, $AUNFF $AUN Aurcana should start getting re-rated by the market.
AURCANA CORPORATION FILES SHAFTER PROJECT PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL REPORT ON SEDAR
September 27, 2016
Impact is a very good deal here and trades at 50% of its August high. A Fibonacci 61.8% retracement would take it to .56 (but I am not saying that it will or will not get there).
Argonaut Gold – Corporate VIDEO Presentation
9/20/2016 – Denver Gold Forum
Minera Alamos Inc. – Corporate Presentation – Beaver Creek PM Summit 2016
Chris Frostad, CEO
(TSX-V: MAI)
Ex, I’ve been buying oil stocks, but will shift back into PMs soon.
You are a wise man CFS.
I should have rode oil stocks up the last few months, and then rotated over to more of a PM stock focus in mid-October.
Can’t believe what SDRL did today. Wish I understood what is going on in oil.
I saw the volume spike on SDRL a couple of days ago, and failed to act on the information contained therein. So missed a 25% gain, but seemed too dodgy!
Bloomberg is reporting that the National Iranian Oil Co. agreed to the framework of a $2.2 billion deal with Persia Oil & Gas Industry Development Co. to boost output at three fields along the country’s western border with Iraq, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said during a ceremony at the ministry. Zanganeh has said the new type of contract, designed to better reward investment in crude and natural gas production, is crucial to increasing the country’s long-term export potential. Although it may take years for new investment deals to bear fruit. President Hassan Rouhani’s government has argued that it should be allowed to return production to levels achieved before international sanctions curbed shipments according to Bloomberg. So it will be easy for Iran to say it will do whatever it takes because they will not have to do much. But from a larger perspective it does not change the fact that this OPEC deal will put pressure on Iran to cap production at pre-sanctions levels or risk starting a new production war.
My earlier estimates had oil going up to possibly $60, but now it looks like it might stall around $50. Then manufacturers of deep sea rigs announce an order backlog of over $4 billion. It is hard to keep track of all the fundamental data, as well as price-volume dynamics.
I like sales:)
Agreed Pete. They only help the investors that take advantage of them though.
GDX looks like it is heading for the 200 day MA at $23:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p63907650513&a=444092852
Yes, it seems quite likely that the 200 day MA will be a good place for support and a bounce.
Gold is falling so hard that I don’t think it will stop in the 1250 to 1260 zone I had forecast. Could get a dead cat bounce and head to near 1200.
I want to see what happens at the median fork line support in the 1270 area:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p91324948235&a=443006542
Globex maintains a tight capital structure with 46.5 million shares outstanding, and no debt. We have a BUY rating and a fair value estimate of $1.00 per share on GMX.
http://news.globexmining.com/documents/medias//update-fundamental-rpt-oct-3-2016-final.pdf
GLD is sitting on the 34 week EMA right now:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61238780202
Which, I should have pointed out, is just above the more significant 233 week EMA.
Barkerville Gold samples up to 1,335 g/t Au at Cariboo
2016-10-04 09:07 ET – News Release
Mr. Chris Lodder reports
BARKERVILLE IDENTIFIES 60 KILOMETRE LONG GOLD BEARING STRUCTURAL BREAK COINCIDENT WITH NEWLY DEFINED REGIONAL SOIL ANOMALIES AND PROVIDES EXPLORATION UPDATE
After 3.5 months, GLD is again below the 200 week MA, but notice that it never did take out the 233 week MA. This is why it pays to also look at Fibonacci-based moving averages.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32753252433
Blood bath phase.,do not panic,banks are causing this sell off.
Still an on going bull market. Per Gary
I agree with him. Do not panic. I actually prefer to see this three month correction end with some “shock and awe” as it rids the market of the weakest hands much better than a slow grind can.
It is a good/bullish sign that my portfolio of juniors is down less than half as much as GDXJ today and on very low volume.
Time to stack some silver
Silver is sub $18 again, so probably not a bad idea.
Agreed that the shock and awe will exhaust sellers, and is preferred over the slow grind.
My account had it’s fair share of red today like most, but also did a little shopping and added to positions I trimmed back in the summer. I’m moving funds around to be able to capitalize on this corrective move throughout the remainder of October and need a few days before everything settles anyway. Really I’d like the correction to go on just a little bit longer this week and next, so that I can get fully positioned before the next leg up.
One of my favourite silverminer miner is holding up very well!! Go Brixton Metals😄
Yes, BBB looks quite good and strong. Congratulations to you and Brian. 🙂
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p14729992724
Hey Blue – Yes, I am also a big fan of Brixton Metals as well but it is down over 10% today, so I wouldn’t call that holding up well…. It has more torque to the upside and downside, like Americas Silver corp or Impact or Avino that were all down over 10% today as well. That just means that when things turn back up, that they’ll have more leverage to the upside as well. I’m starting to add to positions while they are on clearance sale.
In the larger scheme of things Brixton is doing just fine though, and I’ve been banging on the Brixton drum most of this year, because I still don’t believe most people are following it as closely as they should be.
Cheers!
I posted this a few days ago, but while we are on the topic, this land that Brixton acquired from Agnico Eagle bodes well for the future:
$BBB $BXTMF Brixton Metals Enters Into Purchase Agreement with Agnico Eagle to Acquire Lands Adjacent to Langis Property
VANCOUVER, BC–(September 30, 2016)
#ProjectAcquisition #Silver #BritishColumbia
Blue – I just looked at the Canadian $BBB ticker for Brixton and it is only down 2.78% so it wasn’t as dramatic as the OTC $BXTMF that is now down 12.15% today.
Hopefully the OTC will snap back later this week as this was likely just a liquidity trap for investors that wanted to sell everything today. I’m a little more encouraged now that I switched over to look at the Canadian tickers in some of these Silver stocks, as they were not as dramatic.
Yes, it’s the Canadian listing that counts. Not only that, it is also holding up well based on the overall look of the chart. It remains above important MAs and is strong based on other aspects as well.
Yes in the overall picture Brixton is holding up quite well.
I spoke too soon though about today, as now BBB is down twice as much:
Brixton Metals Corporation (BBB.V)
$0.67 down -$0.05 (-6.94% loss)
As of 1:28 PM EDT. Market is still open.
It was inevitable as there is always someone who will rebalance or tap the relative winners in order to buy the bargains.
It is again down just 2.78% while GDXJ is down 9.67%.
Make that 9.94%
Great point on comparing the miners to GDXJ. Brixton (BBB) is actually still down near – 7%, and Americas Silver (USA) – 7.5%, but the ETF (GDXJ) is down over 10% now.
Brixton was 2.785 at the time of my last post but finished the session down 8.33%.
GDXJ finished down 10.06%
Meanwhile, SGN, GG, and CEM finished flat. 🙂
Mexus (MXSG) finished up 2.99% 😮
“Shock and awe”
Funny Pete. Where do you come up with all these great photos?
I laughed very hard at the one a few weeks back with the bird and the air horn.
Thanks for a bit of levity today 🙂
Thanks, 🙂
Yes,the bird photo was better than a thousand Words,i hope the other bird liked it…
Ha! Yes, the air horn represented much more than a thousand words.
Well thanks for the shock & awe photo today and for a comedic interlude.
Cheers!
Dumped my 2500 GDX at 25.55 yesterday. It is now 23.91 and headed much lower.
Error. Sold at 26.55.
Why do you think much lower Paul L.? i´m thinking 22.
Stewart Thomson agrees with you but I think even the 23 area might hold. Having an eight to ten percent decline today really helps to exhaust sellers because such action causes a “sell now, ask questions later” response. So, paradoxically, it can limit the downside follow-through.
$22.09 happens to be the 50% retracement level:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p43137623992&a=480292154
So maybe 22 it is…
Thanks Matthew,lets see how it plays out.
Canadian bank went dark according to some reports….