Minimize

Welcome!

The economic backdrop does not support a continued drop in bonds

Cory
October 5, 2016

With Chris Temple this morning we focus on the continued drop in bonds. Treasuries are in the longest decline in more than a month but Chris does not feel this trend will continue for the long term. He points to continued weak economics around the world and the fact that investors will continue to look at safer investments as market corrections seems more likely.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
70 Comments
    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:01 AM

    This situationn has the feel of a liquidity problem combined with desperation for higher yield.
    We may have higher volatility as switching occurs.

    “When in doubt, do nought” used to be my mantra.
    But maybe I should change that to:
    “When in doubt, get out!”

    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:10 AM

    I am getting tired of being stopped out of stocks in the PM area, because now I have to choose when the turnaround will come. I know trailing stops protect against losses, but this is getting annoying!

      CFS
      Oct 05, 2016 05:21 AM

      Auryn Resources receives conditional OK to list on TSX

      2016-10-05 08:08 ET – News Release

      Mr. Shawn Wallace reports

      AURYN RESOURCES RECEIVES CONDITIONAL ACCEPTANCE TO LIST ON THE TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE

    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:18 AM

    Predator samples up to 186.5 g/t Au at 3 Aces

    2016-10-05 08:33 ET – News Release

    Ms. Janet Lee-Sheriff reports

    GOLDEN PREDATOR 3 ACES SAMPLING PROGRAM DELIVERS RESULTS UP TO 186.5 G/T GOLD AND TWO NEW VEINS

    Not bad! That was one of the stocks that gave a good conference report, discussed here a week ago.

      Oct 05, 2016 05:21 PM

      Golden Predator is a keeper, if you believe we are in a bull, multi-year gold market

    Oct 05, 2016 05:24 AM

    I have not got a clue any more folks. I really have not.

    I look at the fundamentals and they are terrible – but the stock markets keep soaring.

    Heck, things are going from bad to worse to serious in Syria and, bizarrely, the precious metals are dumping and the conventionals are mostly brushing off any talk of hostilities dragging in the big boys. Scary times.

      CFS
      Oct 05, 2016 05:29 AM

      Bob UK, don’t forget during the Weimar Republic collapse the stockmarket went up.
      Shares represent fractional ownership of something with real value, even if they get overpriced.
      People are buying shares for their cash flow.

      LPG
      Oct 05, 2016 05:33 AM

      Bob UK,

      Hope all’s well.

      If so often one feels confused by market action, it means 1) one is missing something (ie one’s thought process is flawed) which is often the result of 2) not seeing things the right way. I like to say: “when one is not looking at the right place, one is unlikely to find what one is looking for”.

      MOST OF THE TIME, when people talk about fundamentals they in fact
      1) mention/discuss past data —> TOTALLY USELESS becoz IRRELEVANT
      2) express their own opinions more than discussing true fundamentals. —> so when their opinions are wrong, they say “fundamentals don’t matter” and ultimately end up confused.

      My 2cts.

      Best to you as always,

      LPG

    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:24 AM

    Jim Willie:

    http://dollarcollapse.com/euro-2/world-gone-mad-part-1-italy-50-year-bonds/

    And I thought California was the land of fruits and nuts!

    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:34 AM
    Oct 05, 2016 05:35 AM

    Fraud every where. Politicians ,markets ,central banks ,government controlled by the crime families.,it is so in your face it is a joke.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:39 AM

    Where’s Chartser?

    He said TA is not rhetoric and how I should wake up.

    This coming from someone who said go,d would be $500 an ounce for the last two years!!

    Go back to sleep before you hurt yourself !

    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:39 AM

    Chris. Temple, this seems interesting to me.
    http://etfdailynews.com/2016/10/05/this-generic-drug-etf-deserves-consideration-amid-biotech-weakness/

    I also like Russia and emerging markets, as long as the US dollar is weak.
    I own some RSXJ and EWZS as vehicles in this area.

    CFS
    Oct 05, 2016 05:50 AM
    Oct 05, 2016 05:51 AM

    Get out of your head, James..
    Doc was looking at the technicals that are telling him there is more downside going into next year. I completely agree with that from what I’m seeing. New lows could still be in the cards too! That’s not rhetoric.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:54 AM

    He mentioned 2017, 2018 and 2019

    Go back and listen…then go back to sleep.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:11 AM

    Canadians are taking over America’s national sport, whenever or wherever The Blue Jays play they have more fans in the American baseball stadiums than the home teams. The Yankees will become Toronto’s farm team. DT

      Oct 05, 2016 05:33 AM

      Maybe they could try basketball….

      Oct 05, 2016 05:27 PM

      DT I think there is on one or two Canadians on this Jays team. Look to NHL hockey for Canadian dominance. Most Stanley Cup winners have about 50% Canucks on their squads.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:12 AM

    and all those wise guys out there who keep making the snide remarks when I mention manipulation and I am told I am not sophisticated enough to understand technicals I guess the judge isn’t smart enough either…

    jj and bob m should take a look at this

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-05/major-victory-gold-silver-traders-judge-approves-manipulation-lawsuit-against-hsbc-s

    Oct 05, 2016 05:47 AM

    Jordan R-B on palisade radio

    http://palisaderadio.com/

      Oct 05, 2016 05:36 PM

      Thanks for the Jordan post Pete. He nailed it as far as the pullback in Gold and Silver, and I had posted his last one and felt he was a bit to bearish, but he was right.

      I haven’t listened to this podcast yet, but I always consider Jordan’s point of view.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:14 PM

    The T-bond is showing a little more strength than gold at the moment but I do not think it will last. TLT priced in GLD has most likely been in a topping pattern for well over a year.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=13&id=p66582789709&a=444178153

      Oct 05, 2016 05:35 PM

      So you expect the ratio to fall and GLD to rise?

        Oct 05, 2016 05:40 PM

        The short to medium term (days to weeks) is questionable but longer term (months to years), definitely.

          Oct 05, 2016 05:46 PM

          Thanks,Matthew

    Oct 05, 2016 05:23 PM

    There’s too much crap being spun here and it needs to be addressed.

    And I am sure to piss off some people.

    First there are some people on this site, including myself that have BIG money on the line in the precious metals space.

    I am not talking about punters who throw some dimes on penny stocks investing in Uranium, Lithium, Rhodium, and every other ium, and throw in Wind, Water and whatever else they can trade.

    Yesterday’s smack down was big, it did sting, it was meant too.

    Anyone who says it was nothing, or tries to downplay it is frankly not in the space, or only has a few small bills on it. They are not big players.

    Did I sell an ounce? No. Of course not.

    But let’s not shrug it off either as if it was just a hiccup.

    It was a smack down, it was hard and it did a lot of damage that needs to be repaired.

    I don’t want to hear crap about how I get emotional or am not reasonable from someone who frankly is talking out of both sides of his mouth.

    You cant say Silver is a great investment, out performing stocks and real estate and then also say how you can make money on the sell side as well.

    To deny silver has been atrocious these last five years is quite frankly ludicrous.

    To have an intelligent debate comparing silver to other assets like stocks and real estate, and to say it beats them, but then to say you can make money shorting is a complete contradiction.

    You are trying to defend the indefensible.

    If its a volatile trade that you can make money long or short and it ends up back in the same place that’s fine.

    But it cannot be a volatile trade that you can make money on the long and the short and still outperform other assets. You can’t have it both ways.

    All the charts, retracements, waves, volume and all the other crap simply can’t see that it is down 65% from its high.

    Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees.

    I suppose we are all supposed to be impressed that it stopped at support?

    Big deal!

    When support is zero let me know when it stops there!

    Here’s another guy talking out of both sides of his mouth…

    AUCKLAND, Oct 5 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Tuesday he would be “fine” with raising U.S. interest rates by year end if U.S. economic data continued to come in firm, though any further moves would need to see inflation moving higher.
    Speaking to reporters after a speech in New Zealand, Evans said any hike would likely come at the Fed’s December policy meeting, though he would not rule out a move as early as the November meeting.
    Evans emphasised that the timing of the next hike was less important than how tightening was conducted beyond that, and he would want to see inflation actually moving up and unemployment falling further.

    This is EXACTLY what I said months ago.

    These FED heads go all over the world on our dime giving speeches and talking out of both sides of their mouth.

    What the hell business does this guy have in New Zealand?

    He is a regional FED President from Chicago, why on earth does he need to be giving a speech in New Zealand?

    There’s a lot of crap going around here and it stinks.

    Smells like the track.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:28 PM

    You are so emotional,James.

      Oct 05, 2016 05:37 PM

      He’s also ignorant. for example: “All the charts, retracements, waves, volume and all the other crap simply can’t see that it is down 65% from its high.” What?! lol…

      100% of investors who don’t use charts don’t understand them.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:31 PM

    Pete, what category above do you fall under?

    Oct 05, 2016 05:33 PM

    Very goog news. Stockcharts.com repaired Pring’s Inflation Index and the unwarranted 30% decline rendering it useless has been removed. None too soon because the rebound should be forecast in a rebound of treasuries(lower long term rates) and TNX/PRII:

    http://schrts.co/Rcxeas

      Oct 05, 2016 05:39 PM

      So if we go back to $TNX/!PRII and remove the price labels, then you can see that the 34-week EMA is being tested. I presume the turn will come when TNX/PRII goes below the 34-week EMA, and resumes the downtrend:

      http://schrts.co/491xqW

        Oct 05, 2016 05:43 PM

        Nice, thank you for the update.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:45 PM

    I should’ve sold my gold stocks last Fri and bought Deutsch Bank. But one day I’ll be glad I didn’t.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:45 PM

    Still haven’t addressed the fact that you can’t say silver is this wonderful investment better than stocks and real estate but you make money with plenty of selling opportunities?

    Which is it?

    A fair question

      Oct 05, 2016 05:59 PM

      James, silver is up far more than stocks since real GDP peaked 15 years ago. It has also smoked stocks in 2016.

      I hardly ever trade physical silver, even in ETF form, since I prefer the miners. Either way, silver delivers plenty of chances to trade.

      It is obvious to me that you would prefer to make 5-10% per year than to deal with the volatility that we MUST expect when hunting big gains. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that but you should do yourself a favor and admit it.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:47 PM

    When Deutsche Bank gets bailed out and the stock goes up 50% you might take that back…

      Oct 05, 2016 05:56 PM

      when DB collapses and gold is 3K I’ll be happy I passed on DB.

      Oct 05, 2016 05:08 PM

      Saw that article, and was going to post it, but got sick of one posters relentless smear campaign and time NSU comes up. Thanks for putting up the update, as Zinc is one of the commodities that is garnering much attention so far this year and since the end of 2015. With so many of the larger base metals mines that have closed, throttled back production and staff, or are depleted, then the smelters are hungry for more Zinc. Many of the Silver miners have nice Zinc credits. One of the companies that has been knocking it out of the park lately with their Zinc results is Arizona Mining. They had 10 drill rigs going, and are ramping up at present to 15. They’ve been finding bonanza grade Zinc along with their Lead and Silver components.

      I’m very keen on about 6-8 Zinc companies at present and it has started to move before the Copper companies. Going to be a fun ride…… I Zinc……

        Oct 05, 2016 05:55 PM

        Excelsior,
        This is the KER,were people go to listen to interesting guests and read/post articles about various topics. thats the beauty of KER,there is something for most Investors/traders.
        I do not agree with everything i post but it´s up to the Investor/trader/ and a few(peopleholdingthesameasset too long and not “stepping of the train” between cycles) to decide for themselves what to do.
        We can not have the smearers and disrupters stop people from posting.

        There will always be people with tunnel-vision,thats just the way it is.

        Just my 2oz 🙂

          Oct 05, 2016 05:57 PM

          That’s a good point, and generally post what’s on my mind, and any interesting articles, editorials, charts, videos on TA, videos from pundits, videos from CEO or that feature Corporate Presentations etc… However, when 4 or 5 times in a row this poster just tagged negative editorials to those posts, it just became to tedious for me to address the same thing over and over with them putting in no effort to read any of the years of studies and audits. Yes, I agree “there will always be people with tunnel-vision,” but that doesn’t mean you want to trip their trigger and start it all over again…..

          I appreciate your 2oz Pete. All the best sir.

            Oct 06, 2016 06:36 AM

            Yes,i know what you mean,thanks Excelsior

    Oct 05, 2016 05:16 PM

    Russia suspends nuclear agreement, ends uranium research pact with United States

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-usa-nuclear-uranium-idUKKCN12524M

      Oct 05, 2016 05:03 PM

      Hey Pete – thanks for the post.

      Just a heads up that yesterday Dragonite and I delved into greater detail on this topic and what it may mean to the Uranium space moving forward.

      The Uranium spot markets have not been allowed to recover with the US dumping all the Russian warhead plutonium & their endless supplies of cheap Russian Uranium tailings into the spot marketplace in since 2013. Ending this program will be like taking of the shackles of the pricing mechanism and setting the spot pricing develop based on real supply/demand metrics and the reality about the costs of production.

      This cessation of endless fuel continually dumped on the market, will allow normal business to resume in the sector. This is important for when the longer term supply off-take agreements with utility companies are negotiated by the Uranium miners in 2017-2019.

      There’s a bunch more info and some great research articles from Marin Katusa on Tuesday’s Chris Temple editorial. Here I’ll link it below for quick reference. The US and Russian governments impact on the nuclear industry is discussed towards the top:

      http://www.kereport.com/2016/10/04/gold-ud-dollar-whats-important/

        Oct 05, 2016 05:16 PM

        Thanks again for that ceo site Ex.got into the Tinka yesterday early enough before it started to move.used some of the trevali profits.had to sell some of the trevali cuz I was getting to overweighted in it.zinc has been good to me and I think it will continue

        Oct 05, 2016 05:21 PM

        Yes,saw those,thanks

          Oct 06, 2016 06:04 AM

          Cool. It is an interesting story that is developing so it will be interesting to see how this affects the spot market over the next year or so without the nuclear fuel dumps onto the spot market from the US government.

        Oct 06, 2016 06:02 AM

        Nice Wolfster. Yeah I like the crew that post over those Zinc rooms at ceo.

        A few of them are absolutely stoked about Tinka, Trevali, Arizona Mining, and Solitario Exploration corp. They do like Heron and Zazu for the longer term as well. One guy really likes Hudbay, and Rox Resources. A few have mentioned Pasinex, and Callinex, and Boliden and Foran have come up as well. They don’t seem to like Canadian Zinc though due to the smelter penalties and high mercury content.

    Oct 05, 2016 05:24 PM

    First of all I own plenty of stocks that are leveraged to gold including:
    AEM
    GFI
    GG
    KGC
    AUY
    NUGT

    I don’t have these looking to get 5-10% returns.

    You are way off base again.

    You keep claiming silver is up against stocks but you don’t deny the fact that the money was made on the sell side.

    You also keep using 2016 as a yardstick. It is not.

    Something that delivers “plenty of chances to trade” is not an investment to compare to the long term appreciation of stocks and real estate.

    Stocks and real estate smoke silver hands down

      Oct 05, 2016 05:43 PM

      Well, holding those stocks and NUGT certainly explains your mood, eh?

        Oct 05, 2016 05:08 PM

        +1 🙂

    Oct 05, 2016 05:31 PM

    And when will gold be 3k?

    Oct 05, 2016 05:32 PM

    How do we get from here to gold 3k?

      Oct 05, 2016 05:20 PM

      Only in dreams.

      Oct 05, 2016 05:39 PM

      James-
      We got to get to $1,500 first. On this case, a major re-evaluation must be made. Then upon getting to $1,500, we must observe the mining shares. The metal led the shares higher from the beginning and led the shares lower. This will be important.
      The dollar needs to test the highs of the year. It commenced doing this now as of the other day. This should keep the gold in correction.
      Again, evaluate the USD from here up to the annual highs.
      Then we can talk.
      And yes, the FED is annoying, they really should keep their mouths shut rather than attempting to goose the markets. Without them being aware, they are creating an uncanny mechanism in the market that will not be friendly.

    b
    Oct 05, 2016 05:16 PM

    I think the real estate over PMs debate has been overdone, real estate blows PMs away.

    Course thats “long term” lol

    But real estate is supposed to blow away PMs, especially gold, gold is money, its purpose is to preserve purchasing power….thats it, no more.

    If a person wants to make billions, its real estate, or invent the computer etc
    Tuff to make billions with gold.

    Well, I suppose if a person was a superhero trader.

      Oct 05, 2016 05:59 PM

      The real estate debate is interesting, but we have been in a declining rate environment for 30+ years. Not to mention the high GDP rates of the 1960s and 1980s that built an economic base. There is no reason that real estate, as a whole, cannot decline for a decade or more going forward.

      Oct 05, 2016 05:25 PM

      b
      Quick Question: Do you actually (literally) laugh-out-loud when you type “lol”
      ?

        Oct 05, 2016 05:59 PM

        +1 lol (um, I don’t actually laugh out loud 😐 )

        Oct 06, 2016 06:11 AM

        If I write (lol) which is rare or LMAO which is even more rare, then I am laughing out loud or Laughing My Ar$e Off.

        If I write Ha! or Ha! Ha! that is how many times I laughed, but it may be more of nasal laugh with lips together and like a hum throat laugh.

        Sometimes I get tickled or think someone is being witty and I write “Funny” or “Good one” or “Nice.”

        Now that I think about it, I really do laugh quite a bit…… That works. 🙂

          Oct 06, 2016 06:06 AM

          You have to laugh in this market….both up & down.
          Otherwise you should be playing elsewhere…..lol
          Cheers.

        b
        Oct 06, 2016 06:28 AM

        Brian, that would be llol.

      Oct 06, 2016 06:06 AM

      Nice Wolfster. I posted their prior BNN interview yesterday and added their press release this morning, but never got back around to the BNN show from today.

      Much appreciated!