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Welcome!

A technical look at the pull back in large mining stocks

Cory
October 6, 2016

Rick is back and just in time to share his outlook on the pullback we are seeing in the gold sector. We focus on large gold companies as well as the junior ETF. Here are the symbols…

  • GoldCorp – GG & TSX:G,
  • Newmont Mining – NEM,
  • Barrick – ABX & TSX:ABX,
  • VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF – GDXJ

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click here to visit Ricks’s website for more info on his proprietary technical outlook on many sectors.

As always pleas email the charts you want Rick to look at to Fleck@kereport.com.

Discussion
68 Comments
    CFS
    Oct 06, 2016 06:09 AM

    London closes and up we go for a short while.

    Monday, when China reopens should be better. 3 more days to go, but I’ll be buying again on Friday.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:12 AM

    I didn’t see this news on Mexus MXSG) until this morning. Rick had covered their technical charts on here a few weeks back….

    __________________________________________________________________________

    Mexus CEO attends MINExpo and makes plans for Ures Project
    10/03/2016 – (MXSG)

    “Mr. Lemas reports that work at the Santa Elena mine is back to normal after the recent seasonal monsoon rains. Mr. Lemas continues to be impressed with the professional approach shown by Mr. Marco Martinez of MarMar holdings. Mr. Lemas goes onto state that the rapidly expanding Mexus/MarMar joint venture will need additional resources. Mexus’ environmental expert in Mexico, Mr. Alduenda, is performing advance work towards the permit needed to drill the El Scorpio. This work is being done under his stock agreement with the company.”

    “Mexus CEO Paul Thompson added, “These are exciting times for Mexus. We now have 3 different properties that are at varying levels of discovery and/or near production. I foresee a time in the not so distant future where this company will have 3 producing mines creating outstanding cash flow and return for our shareholders.”

    http://www.mexusgoldus.com/news.php

    Oct 06, 2016 06:13 AM

    The following will prove to be correct:

    On October 4, 2016 at 12:38 pm,
    Paul W says:
    The Bullish Gold Miners Percentage in now below 30. The last time it was that low was in January. Compare it to the indexes. Anytime it is below 30 it is almost always a great time to buy gold stocks.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$bpgdm

      Oct 06, 2016 06:07 PM

      Wow, I am famous! Thanks.

      FWIW, I put my money where my mouth is and just bought some SGDM as a long term hold. I favor a fundamental weighted index etf like SGDM versus a market cap weighted index like GDX.

        Oct 06, 2016 06:02 PM

        You brought up a great point Paul W about the bullish gold miners percentage.

        BTW – I agree with you about the fundamental weighted SGDM over the market cap rated Index like GDX. People put too much emphasis on a stocks market cap and pass judgement, without looking at the real value drivers of a stock that may cause it to outperform.

        Good stuff. Keep it coming.

        Oct 06, 2016 06:27 PM

        Agreed. Averaging into SILJ today/Friday, next week with a tight sell stop, just in case.

        See my link at bottom of comments – this could have been a liquidation event of a larger fund/company.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:16 AM

    SECUTOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

    Wellgreen Platinum Ltd.
    World Class Ni + Cu + PGM Project in Mining-Friendly Yukon

    http://files.constantcontact.com/dabd1823301/98d66aa6-e908-4b6d-ac41-15af4263b4dd.pdf

      Oct 06, 2016 06:22 AM

      Dick Tracy – Check this out. It’s an 11 page review of (WG) (WGPLF) by Secutor.

        LPG
        Oct 06, 2016 06:30 AM

        Check also this, on the disclosure page: Disclosure #5:
        “Secutor or one of its affiliated companies expects to receive compensation or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months”

        😉

        LPG

          LPG
          Oct 06, 2016 06:32 AM

          Or this, about Craig Stanley, the author of the document:

          “Mr. Craig Stanley is an independent contractor retained by Secutor for the purpose of generating company commentaries and updates.”

          LPG

          Oct 06, 2016 06:34 AM

          Yes, I saw the disclosure and get that they are compensated.

          The information that they included in the report is why I posted it, and there is plenty of helpful data for anyone that reads it over in full.

          Oct 06, 2016 06:37 AM

          Big Al and Cory have sponsors all down the right hand side of this page. Should we not look at updates or listen to audio interviews with Auryn, or NovoResources, or Rye Patch, or Falco, or Exeter because they pay the KER to sponsor the site?

          Everyone should always do their own due diligence anyway, but when a company compiles an 11 page report on one of the premier up and coming PGM Nickel deposits on the planet (Wellgreen) then it is worth the review IMO.

          Cheers!

            LPG
            Oct 06, 2016 06:59 PM

            Capitan Shad,

            A month ago, in mid-September, there was the Beaver Creek summit.
            A week later, there was the Denver Gold Forum.

            You and others have kindly posted on KER a number of links to companies who were presenting at both events.
            Wellgreen was presenting at both events, and the webcasts are still available.
            There was a detailed presentation done by Wellgreen mgt at EACH event.
            If I recall correctly, I think that you or someone else posted links to at least 1 of the 2 presentations.

            Today, you put a link to a document, which, although looking quite serious, is, imho, no more that a very good looking promotional document.

            The questions I have are the following:
            1) between Beaver Creek and the Denver Forum a few days back in September, what has changed for the company fundamentally ?
            I mean… the presentations a few days back were not enough to do “due diligence” ?
            What is the document adding?

            2) if someone else/another promoter comes out in 2 weeks with another promo but nothing has changed for the company, do you think it’s worth posting another document again ???
            –> I’m not sarcastic here. Just curious.

            The way I see it, mining is a VERY complex and difficult business.
            And there are plenty of people trying to sell bullshit stories left right and center everytime the bull market comes back again.
            Why ?
            Because mining is a difficult business and there are plenty of people out there who 1) don’t understand it (information asymmetry), 2) want to get rich quickly (greed) and 3) enjoy, quite frankly, being told nice stories (dreamers).
            Brent Cook talked about the industry still being filed with cons very well – folks on KER who are interested can check his presentation at an event back in May of this year (it’s on Youtube).
            So personally, the less promo, the better I feel. Coz promo is just noise on top of every management ALREADY trying to sell their story.

            Personally, I don’t know the author of the document you posted.
            Do you know him ?
            Is he qualified ?
            Does he understand mining ?
            Does he UNDERSTAND the geology of the project ?
            Personally, IF I can, if I have to spend more time REALLY learning something on the company, i’d love to have the views of someone who understand a thing or 2 about geology talk about the project(s) [coz then I might have a non-mgt perspective]. But that’s me: I’m picky. If I cannot have that luxury, I think Wellgreen presentation was pretty detailed already.

            Sometimes, to me, it’s not so much about the QUANTITY of the information, it’s about the QUALITY of the info, and more importantly, the analysis of the info.
            Quantity wise, their was plenty to digest and to learn about Wellgreen by looking at the webcasts you referred to for Beaver Creek / Denver Gold Forum just a few days ago.
            I’m not sure pasting MORE “info” (promo material in that case) really add much value to the investment case. That’s all.

            You can feel differently, you can view things differently. That’s fine: everybody’s different.

            My 2cts.

            LPG

            Oct 06, 2016 06:23 PM

            LPG – I’ve now asked you twice not to call me Capitan. It isn’t cute anymore.

            Good grief – it was just a report, and even if they have received compensation to cover the company, there is still interesting information in their report for investors to mull over. I like to be as informed as possible, and often pick up new Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats when I read editorials.

            You seem to have a great deal of disdain for any editorial, and have ripped on some of the Seeking Alpha editorials I’ve posted in the past. Just because they may be biased, doesn’t mean you can’t learn something important by reading through them.

            Remember Big Al’s mantra – to stay nimble and well informed. So to answer your question and constant badgering….. yes, if another report surfaces on Wellgreen then I’d post that as well.

            LPG – Did you ever consider that today may be someone’s first time reading the KER? Did is cross your brilliant mind that they may have missed all the previous posts from the Denver Gold forum or Beaver Creek as result, or just missed them in the barge of daily comments?

            That is why I often will post something twice and I see no harm in doing so.
            ***If you don’t see value in them, then here’s a clue “Scroll on by”. It’s not difficult, and I know you pride yourself on being a simple guy.

            Your incessant need to throw cold water on any stock I post about it getting a little bit much. It would be nice if you spend more time contributing ideas on stocks that can make investors money, and less time trying to poke holes in anything I post and pontificating.

            Every press release that a company puts out is a form of advertising or pumping. Get over it.

            You’ve made repeated comments about you’ll only discuss the large companies like “raisin-bread” Pretium because you don’t want to come across as pumping and moving the needle on a small company. That’s just silly LPG. You know I think you’re a sharp guy, but you aren’t going to move the needle by opening up your mouth on a few stocks you like.

            — There are not enough people on the KER to move the markets or stocks substantially anyway, so you’re not doing anything honorable or heroic by not discussing the smaller cap stocks. If you look at all the sponsors here on the KER they are all smaller stock, and they come on regularly to update us on their progress. I am glad that Big Al and Cory offer us more than just the household names, and I’m not just going to discuss the slow moving Majors and Mid-tiers.

            I’m here to share investing ideas in resource stocks, and many of us have great conversations around these stocks that have made me big returns, and others have thanked a number of contributors for bring new stocks to their attention.

            Some criticism of stocks is healthy, and can help investors avoid pitfalls. However, t to continually criticize any editorial or piece with some promotion behind it as something that has ZERO value is absolute rubbish.

            If Brent Cook, Joe Mazumdar, John Kaiser, Gwen Preston, Michael Belkin, Jay Taylor, or even Rick Rule is on here they are talking their book, and they all stand to benefit by doing so if the share prices appreciate.

            Again —- Big Al and Cory have sponsors all down the right hand side of this page. Should we not look at updates or listen to audio interviews with Auryn, or NovoResources, or Rye Patch, or Falco, or Exeter because they pay the KER to sponsor the site?

            Everyone has an opinion LPG – including you. I’d much rather discuss stocks with you then hear your philosophy of buying low and selling high. We all got that OK.

            LPG
            Oct 06, 2016 06:51 PM

            Shad,

            To state the obvious, it seems we see things differently. And it’s fine.

            You’re obviously gonna continue to do things your way, and I totally respect that.
            And if you don’t mind, I’m gonna do likewise on my side.

            If you wanna discuss my views on specific stocks I consider “small”, you can always email me. At the end, we have each other’s email.

            When it comes to discussing stocks on a public place such as KER, I don’t discuss small stocks. P-e-r-i-o-d. That’s my choice – for good or bad reasons.
            You don’t appreciate that ? That’s fine. Nothing I can do for you.
            You’d prefer me to discuss smallish stocks ? That’s fine too, but it is not what I have elected to do – if you don’t mind.

            I consider that there are enough pumpers out there. No need to add one more to the list.

            I discuss “small stocks” ALL THE TIME with Richard/Doc, and at times off mic w. Cory/Big Al. They know I don’t discuss them publicly to avoid being perceived as pumping my book. Simple.

            I know you have good intent. But re: promo material, for me, more of the same info repackaged is not necessarily “better”/valuable info. Again, it’s not a matter of quantity for me, but of quality.

            When it comes to investing, I prefer to focus on processes which are likely to improve outcomes consistently overtime.
            For me, fwiw, a “decent” process starts by learning about the company on it’s website: the projects descriptions, and take a good look at its financials.
            Sometimes, corporate presentations are decent too in terms of the quality of the info/data displayed.
            There’s typically enough “spin” from the company on its website already. So to read promo material is to read the spin (sometimes light, sometimes heavy) of a spin.

            For assisting “novice investors”, I’m not sure providing links to promo material (especially without highlighting the fact it IS promo material) is the most “enriching” thing to do – even if it comes w. a good intent.
            However, I am cognizant that in a bull market, we all make money and are rock stars, thanks, irrespectively, to (1) promo material, (2) proper processes, (3) dumb luck.

            I understand you see the value in posting material again for potential first-time readers on KER’s blog.
            I also understand you have enough of the “buy low, sell high” mantra. I understand.
            But if there there are first-time readers on KER’s blog, maybe there also become first-time listeners ? (just a thought…)

            As I said upfront: we see things differently. You see and do things your way, and if you don’t mind, I’ll keep on doing things my way.

            LPG

            Oct 06, 2016 06:00 PM

            Fair enough man. You know that I respect you individually, and respect the right of everyone to do their own thing. It is fine to have different opinions, and clearly we do regarding the value of information. That isn’t the problem. You publicly coming after my posts repeatedly is the problem. If you don’t like something I posted it’s fair ground to disagree, but you’ve done it A LOT lately to me in particular.

            I also go to company websites, review their press releases, share structure, maps, drill results, production results, and take a look at year or year or quarter over quarter improvements or declines.

            *** However, there are many times where an editorial writer highlighted a stock in a “new” light for me, and provided very important information:

            1) Some editorials or newsletter writers have pointed out an environmental danger lurking that I didn’t see. This just happened for me with an “editorial” I read about Maya Gold and Silver and I will be selling my position due to this new information.

            2) Some editorials highlight the strength of a managements teams prior successes, or warn about the management teams skeletons in the closet and past epic failures. To me this is incredibly valuable an not always apparent first hand when just looking at the management overview on a companies website. Obviously they aren’t going to highlight their epic failures or when they diluted the crap out of shareholders on their last venture.

            3) Sometimes there are Editorials or newsletter writers, that are geologists that bring up important concerns about the economics of a project, or some that point out how undervalued the way a company calculates its resources are because they are being overly conservative in their cutoffs or price assumptions. Again, this is incredibly valuable info that may not be found on their website.

            4) all the comments on the KER or CEO are technically “Editorial comments,” and I find many observations from contributors to both blogs very insightful and often re-post them. We have some sharp people on here, and they are ALL opinionated, including you & I.

            —> Ultimately to me, I’d rather be well-informed. “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”

            It is VERY SUBJECTIVE to make a decision for everyone on what is “Quantity” and what is “Quality”, and borders on being a form of censorship.

            I choose not to make those decisions for other investors, and feel it is better to have all the info out on the table and let people “Do Their Own Due Diligence”. Again, if YOU don’t like something and think it’s noise, then scroll on by or change the channel. You pump RealVisionTV all the time, so if you don’t like a post try that.

            Many editorial writers on Seeking Alpha or precious metals newsletter writers or investment funds (that we often have here as guests on the KER) have thousands of followers or subscribers a piece. *** Apparently their readers see value to their “noise” as well and they don’t rely on only going to the companies website. [there must be something to getting other’s people’s outlook, even if they are compensated for it, eh?]

            The challenge is to decide for one’s self which opportunities have merit and what information to keep or discard. I’m very comfortable reading someones marketing piece with their bias in mind, but looking for the kernels of new wisdom that they bring to the table.

            For the record, I never asked you to start talking about smaller stocks. I said that is what I enjoy, and I know I’m not alone there.

            What I did say in response to your incredibly inflated self-concern about “pumping” stocks is that all press releases, corporate presentations, and guests on this show are pumping stocks. Get over it.

            You continue to insinuate that pumping the small companies on here is going to move the needle, or that it is bad or wrong, and you talk and post about it quite often. As you say that is your prerogative. (like your response to Pardu where it came off a very flippant, didn’t address his question to you…. as you dodged it for your code of stock discussion….. but, you felt the need to go after me and call me out in several places prompting my responses back to you). Cause and effect my friend.
            Here’s what I said again for clarity:

            “You’ve made repeated comments about you’ll only discuss the large companies like “raisin-bread” Pretium because you don’t want to come across as pumping and moving the needle on a small company. That’s just silly LPG.”

            “You know I think you’re a sharp guy, but you aren’t going to move the needle by opening up your mouth on a few stocks you like.”

            — “There are not enough people on the KER to move the markets or stocks substantially anyway, so you’re not doing anything honorable or heroic by not discussing the smaller cap stocks.”

            ” If you look at all the sponsors here on the KER they are all smaller stocks, and they come on regularly to update us on their progress. I am glad that Big Al and Cory offer us more than just the household names, and I’m not just going to discuss the slow moving Majors and Mid-tiers.”

            It isn’t a matter of pumping companies… This is an outlet for sharing ideas on stocks that don’t get coverage on the main stream media, or by large institutional investors. We have a pretty darn good track record on here discussing small companies before they make a move and before they are on everyone else’s radar. That is one of the biggest benefits of this site, not vague comments about buying assets when they are cheap and selling when they are overbought.

            There aren’t many platforms of communication available to network with other investors about these smaller companies and the KER and CEO.CA are the two best IMO.

            That is why I am here, to discuss investing ideas with other like-minded individuals. Sometimes that involves posting info on a company from their site or an editorial for review. Whether it has any value or is noise/wisdom is completely up to an investor to decide.

            The last time I checked you didn’t have dibbs on what defines Quality or Quantity.

            Again, I respect you LPG

            It just seems lately that you’ve gone out of your way to try to find issues, or discredit the companies I’ve posted about. Thanks for dropping the “Capitan” as it was getting old.”

            Different strokes for different folks works for me. All the best.

            LPG
            Oct 06, 2016 06:26 PM

            Shad,
            It’s all good.
            You can feel differently, you can view things differently. That’s fine: everybody’s different.
            LPG

            Oct 06, 2016 06:30 PM

            We definitely agree on that point sir.

            I respect your difference of opinion, who you are, and the fact that we can both express how we feel. That’s what makes the world go round.

            Have a good night LPG.

      Oct 06, 2016 06:43 AM

      I am very impressed with Diane Garrett (who developed and sold Romarco to Oceangold recently) being brought in to the helm of Wellgreen. She gets results.

      _______________________________________________________________________

      Wellgreen Platinum (WG) (WGPLF)
      The Denver Gold Forum – Corporate Presentation – VIDEO w/ Slides
      9/20/2016

      Diane Garrett
      President & CEO
      Diane R. Garrett has more than 20 years of senior management and financial expertise in the field of natural resources. Most recently she held the position of President and CEO of Romarco Minerals Inc., taking the multi-million ounce Haile Gold Mine project from discovery to construction. Prior to that, she held numerous senior positions in public mining companies including; VP, Corporate Development of Dayton Mining Corporation, VP Corporate Development of Beartooth Platinum Corporation. Earlier in her career Dr. Garrett was the Senior Mining Analyst and Portfolio Manager in the precious metals sector with US Global Investors. Dr. Garrett is also a director of OceanaGold Inc., a global gold producer and TriStar Gold, an exploration company focused in Brazil.

      http://www.denvergoldforum.org/xpl16/company-webcast/WG:CN/

        Oct 06, 2016 06:18 PM

        excelsior, don’t get down on LPG’s comments. most of us here at KER always do our due diligence. i’m always glad to read what you post & often pick up new ideas & thoughts about these stocks.you are right that some people may have missed your last post because we are all lead busy lives & I can’t always read this blog every day & often miss it for several days at a time…..can’t always go back & read every post! keep up the good work…he is only ONE man here not the ONLY ONE!!!

          Oct 06, 2016 06:50 PM

          Thanks for the kind words dw jones. I appreciate those comments a great deal.

          I love and respect LPG and he knows it. 🙂

          We’ve been chatting on here together several times a week for years, but once in a while even people that like each other have a strong difference of opinion. It’s all good. I personally choose to disagree about what the definition of “Quality” is, and think it is very “Subjective” and different to all of us.

          Personally, I find a huge value in reviewing editorials, plugs, pumps, reviews by geologist, or financial institutions buy or sell recommendations, or the company corporate presentations or quarterly investor conference calls. The good the bad and the ugly.

          I look at it all, do my own homework, and make my own decisions, but I value input from as many vantage points as possible (bullish or bearish).

          Attacking something just because it is promotional seems counterproductive to me. If you don’t like something then scroll on by. If you disagree make the case logically and politely. However, just because it is an editorial, doesn’t mean that their unique perspective can’t open your mind to new information.

          That was the only point I was trying to make. If we post any related targeted info on specific companies, but take a deep dive together and look for opportunities, then we may all learn things that make us better investors or traders. Just labeling it all “pumping” is a put down. It doesn’t encourage more ideas, it stifles them with a smugness I detest.

          There are times that I personally don’t like the companies or ETFs others like, and then there are times where I’m kinda interested all the way up to keenly interested. Sometime people will skip right over the info on the companies I choose to post about, maybe some people find new ideas or new companies for review. Sometimes people respond back because they also are shareholders and other times a good exchange and discussion takes place.

          That is all we can hope for – and exchange of ideas.

          dw jones – thanks for always being a positive force and willing to exchange ideas.

          Ever Upward!

    Oct 06, 2016 06:17 AM

    Despite the short term buy signals for the dollar, plenty of sellers keep showing up (notice the long upper candlestick shadows):

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p60250099518&a=471001203

      Oct 06, 2016 06:07 AM

      In response to your post yesterday, I like JW too and look at his charts quite often.

      Jim Wyckoff

      http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-10-06/Thursday-s-Charts-for-Gold-Silver-and-Platinum-and-Palladium-Oct-6.html

        Oct 06, 2016 06:16 AM

        +1 Dan, calgary

        I Look at Mr. Wyckoff’s charts fairly regularly. Jim’s a sharp guy and usually is right on track with his support and resistance levels. He also has good tips and education on how to use technical indicators on his personal website.

        PS – I’ve picked up some Argonaut Gold again. It was just too attractive not to start accumulating it again and our conversation the other day planted the seed in the back of my mind to go revisit them. I watched their Denver Gold presentation and posted it later that day, and got excited again.

        I’ve had a blast swing trading it in the past, but I’m thinking about holding on to Argonaut for the longer term trend as I develop a core position in it. I’m moving some funds around at present so that in the near future I can add even more to my Argonaut position.

        PS. – Have you ever looked into Minera Alamos? They are peers with some of the Argonaut guys, and bought a property off of them that they are developing to put into production in the near future. Just curious as to if you have looked into them or not. Right now they are flying under the radar….

        Ever upward!

        Oct 06, 2016 06:21 AM

        Thanks Dan, good to know. I’ll have to take a look at his work.

        I don’t know if today’s low is going to hold, but gold has found some support where I mentioned two days ago (the chart will update this evening):

        On October 4, 2016 at 2:02 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Gold has some arc support at 1255 – 1250 then 1233 and 1212 this week.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p37352535878&a=369192745

          Oct 06, 2016 06:40 AM

          Thanks guys, love the info. I don’t own AG yet but looks like it could be a contender for a First Majestic or Richmond Mines type of stock price move.

            Oct 06, 2016 06:47 AM

            Well I’m probably getting position in Argonaut with lower moves on the horizon, and may take a few lumps on it in the short term, but for the mid term, I’m jazzed. For me, it helps to just start a new position with an initial tier, and then is much easier to add if drops down further to average down your cost basis. Obviously I rather avoid having to do that in the first place, but if it is a stock you feel very comfortable with, then I’d buy it gets marked down on sale further anyway.

            I just wanted to say thanks, because we used to discuss Argonaut back in 2015, and I did trade it back then, but got a nice position in during Dec of 2015 and added to it in a big way in Jan & Feb. Argonaut had a great run and I sold out a bit too early but I’m buying now below where I sold it earlier in the year so it’s all good…..

            Cheers!

            Oct 06, 2016 06:54 AM

            (ARNGF) made it as high as $11.22 at the top of the cycle. Their production is higher and the costs are better, and they are a tighter company now than they were in the last cycle. I see no reason at all that this stock won’t move well above $10+ again as this bull market gets some legs in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

            This looks like a good place for a reversal based on the oversold Slow Stochastics and ADX red line in nose bleed territory while the black strength line has receded.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARNGF&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23043003253

    CFS
    Oct 06, 2016 06:25 AM
    Oct 06, 2016 06:29 AM

    Thanks Rick. Can I get your take on First Majestic for tomorrow? Wanting to load the boat on that.

    CFS
    Oct 06, 2016 06:41 AM

    Sorry I thought the Martin Armstrong piece with only five views was new, but it was a re-post.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:46 AM

    Rick Rule suggests looking at some commodity “pariahs” – VIDEO

    “Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc. President and CEO Rick Rule, in this interview with SmallCapPower at the recent Mines and Money Americas conference, cautions investors about chasing the hot gold sector and instead look at some surprising commodity “pariahs.” Regardless, he believes life has gotten easier for ‘gold bugs’ of late and that quality projects will be taken over at “eye-popping” prices.”

    http://smallcappower.com/top-stories/investors-now-need-to-look-beyond-gold-says-sprotts-rick-rule/

    GH
    Oct 06, 2016 06:52 AM

    I predict the gold stocks will turn up at or near one of the lines seen here:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46322958103&a=480387695

    🙂

    Flanagan (Gann Global) says that historic parameters indicate a 59% retrace of the up move would be normal, and the average timing band for a bottom would have been Sept 25. So we are right in the zone to look for a bottom. 59% would be right around 20 on this chart. It could go lower than that. But I believe that PM investments in general made at this time will show good profits in the next upleg.

      Oct 06, 2016 06:33 AM

      GH – great chart. Very busy, but yes, a bounce is in the cards at one of those trend lines or retracement levels for support.

        GH
        Oct 06, 2016 06:00 PM

        Yeah, some humor was intended with the chart, suggesting ‘one of these lines’, ha ha. But the levels are real, and so is my commentary 😉

          Oct 06, 2016 06:43 PM

          Thanks again GH. I enjoy reading your commentary and the technical analysis you provide to the KER. Much appreciated!

        Oct 06, 2016 06:09 PM

        Or ,maybe it was Jeff Kern SKI who said that?

      Oct 06, 2016 06:46 AM

      I remember watching the video from Gann global a few months back,were he talks about a possible 60% ish correction in the miners,and that it would be difficult to sit trough,
      Thanks,GH

        Oct 06, 2016 06:44 PM

        Yeah I remember watching the Gann Global video as well. I believe it was featured on 321gold and Bob M. had brought it up a few times.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:58 AM

    WOW Gold and silver getting pummeled again!

    Here we go loop de loo
    Here we go loop de laa…

    Matthew, let’s hear the spin…

      Oct 06, 2016 06:15 AM

      I bought a lot of shares today and yesterday. Something tells me that you did not. Something also tells me that you ignored me when I told you NUGT is for trading not holding. Its performance lately just might explain why you’ve got your lace undies in a bunch.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:32 AM
    Oct 06, 2016 06:33 AM

    Here is what is going on…

    There are two narratives or “data points” involved in this gold/silver smash.
    First there is the higher interest rates scenario…
    The probability of a December rate hike is now in the neighborhood of 60% and even the November meeting has a probability of 25%.
    Based on this, traders believe the FED will raise rates, this is causing a $ bid, and a gold/silver takedown.
    Second today’s initial jobless claims came in good, continuing the trend of lower unemployment, this in turn bolstered the case for raising interest rates, which in turn is the reason again for the gold and silver crushing.
    Let’s examine both narratives…
    First let’s take jobless claims…
    Jobless claims quite frankly are an irrelevant data point.
    The jobless claims have been improving for many months, the unemployment trend has been improving for many months AND YET THE FED HAS NEVER RAISED RATES BASED ON THIS.
    To conclude that today’s initial jobless claim number somehow bolsters the case for a FED rate hike is foolhardy. Jobless claims have nothing to do with raising or not raising rates.
    If it did then they would have raised rates several times already.
    Yet this is the spin you hear in the main stream media.
    Forget about jobless claims!
    Second narrative, probability of rates hikes in November and/or December…
    Once again another false narrative.
    The FED has been jawboning interest rate hikes for years now, and so far, has only managed to raise rates once just to save some credibility.
    Everyone know the definition of insanity right?
    No rate hike, send fed heads out all over the world on our dime spewing a rate hike propaganda speech, then don’t raise rates. Wash Rinse Repeat.
    This is where we are again.
    So a November/December rate hike is off the table.
    And even if they do raise rates, does anyone think a measly .25% hike is responsible for this carnage, even AFTER A DECEMBER HIKE PROVED A CATALYST FOR HIGHER GOLD PRICES.
    Any trader who believes that quite frankly doesn’t have an ounce of brains.

    Yet this is the meme going around now for the reason gold and silver are getting trashed.
    Complete nonsense.
    This is just another opportunity to smack down gold and silver and use rising interest rates as an excuse, this excuse is on the order of my dog ate my homework.
    Now this doesn’t invalidate the take down. This has come swift, it has come hard and it has come long.
    However in my humble opinion this is way over done, not based on any real reason, and so I believe we are at or near the end.
    IF we are in a bull market, and the jury is split, this is right about the time when gold should stop going down, and return to its upward trajectory.
    Don’t get me wrong – gold and silver still suck; however this sell off seems extreme.
    So I am not here to sell gold and silver as the best investment out there like another will.
    I am here to say we are near support, and IF YOU TRULY BELIEVE THIS IS A BULL THEN WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO A SELLING REPRIEVE.
    Now regarding tomorrows NFP – I have no idea what to expect.
    A BIG NUMBER WILL CRUSH GOLD
    A BAD NUMBER WILL GIVE GOLD A BOOST
    It all depends on how they want to spin the number
    In any event that’s the deal
    The weeks and months to follow will confirm if this was just a pullback in a beginning bull market or just prove it was a dead cate bounce and still in a bear.
    Others can spin how the metals are always fine, and throw insults, I just give it to you straight up.
    They will have to pry gold and silver out of my dead cold hands, they still suck and are dead money with grades of “D” and “F” respectively, however we could very well be in a new bull market, time will tell…

    Oct 06, 2016 06:44 AM

    Business bankruptcies Soar 38%….zerohedge

    Oct 06, 2016 06:49 AM

    Deutsche Bank dumped on heavy volume
    …….German Government DENIES talk with US DOJ. Zerohedge

      CFS
      Oct 06, 2016 06:58 AM

      DB is being heavily shorted, more than sold. (According to data coming out of Europe.)

      DB is listed on many bourses.
      It is held by many institutions, which tend not to sell. Unfortunately, regulators are slow in regulating naked shorting and this can happen quite often for a quick profit.

        Oct 06, 2016 06:12 AM

        German CEOs said to Offer,capital injection to DB….zh

          Oct 06, 2016 06:17 AM

          I said last week, the Germans would not let DB Go, but, these CEOs may not comprehend derivatives..But,then again the Rothschilds may not want it to sink either.

            CFS
            Oct 06, 2016 06:56 AM

            They probably can’t let it go.
            There are two Spanish banks and one Portuguese bank that go if DB goes, 3 Italian banks would be in trouble too, plus another German.
            Short of an economic collapse allowed, DB cannot go.

            Oct 06, 2016 06:22 PM

            I think we are on the same page.

    CFS
    Oct 06, 2016 06:52 AM

    Everybody has opinions.

    James, if you believe the Fed can raise interest rates, have you computed the effect of raising interest rates on credit default swaps and the effect it has on the solvency of the banking industry.
    In particular, to me that it is abundantly clear that if interest rates are raised, economic collapse results.
    My best estimate is that even an interest rate rise of a quarter of a percent bankrupts at least 3 banks and possibly as many as 8.
    I do not have sufficient data to be exact, unfortunately.
    It appears to me more than 3 international banks are technically bankrupt already.
    However, not having to mark to market only allows them to survive for a limited time.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:56 AM

    CFS, I don’t think you quite understood what I said…I do not believe a rate hike is on the table. However this is the false narrative for the gold/silver take down.

    But if the FED is that clueless (which they are) they might raise again just to give them some cushion so they can then lower.

    The bottom line is the FED is boxed in, they will be damned if they do and damned if they dont

      Oct 06, 2016 06:43 PM

      Maybe the two stories simply coincide in time.

    CFS
    Oct 06, 2016 06:01 AM

    I believe you mistake political alignment for stupidity when it comes to members of the FOMC.
    No doubt they are increasingly trapped.

    CFS
    Oct 06, 2016 06:06 AM

    The hit by Matthew on Florida may be the worst at Cape Canaveral since records began in 1531. (Not that they are that accurate back then)
    Gusting to 140 mph.

      Oct 06, 2016 06:09 AM

      The insane rules that Jeb Bush put in for the state of Florida regarding insurance (which caused droves of companies to pull out of home insurance in the state of FL) are going to be problematic if this hurricane does as much damage as people have estimated.

      Wishing the folks in FL all the best.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:12 AM

    CFS – I agree not only are they politically aligned but they are also stupid.
    Most have never really had a real job and think economics is just theory to be discussed over textbooks in the teachers lounge.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:41 AM

    Are markets open on Monday?

      Oct 06, 2016 06:47 AM

      The stock markets are open, but the bond markets are closed on Monday – Columbus Day. Many businesses are closed though.

        Oct 06, 2016 06:50 AM

        Also, many banks are closed. In most trading accounts the funds executed on Monday the 10th will not process until Tuesday the 11th.

    Oct 06, 2016 06:16 PM

    This is a really interesting article: Discusses the dramatic fall in PMs may be do to a HUGE liquidation event of a major entity

    http://www.marketslant.com/articles/common-sense-gold-and-silver-etfs

      Oct 06, 2016 06:35 PM

      Brian…thanks hope we do not see the 1155 ,but if we do I might sell some real estate

      Oct 06, 2016 06:37 PM

      Brian – Thanks for the post. Good article, nice charts, and I like that Weekly Futures Performance chart mid way down. Graphics always help!