DID THIS DROP IN GOLD RESULT IN A BUYING OPPORTUNITY?
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- Segment 1: We recap the moves in the US markets, gold and the USD to kick off this week’s show.
- Segment 2: The True Contrarian, Steven Jon Kaplan shares his thoughts on how the US election will impact the markets.
- Segment 3: Ronald-Peter Steferle shares his thoughts on the drop in gold this week.
- Segment 4: Ivan Bebek, Chairman of Auryn Resources outlines the recent progress the Company has made at Committee Bay and in Peru.
- Segment 5: Traders Corner is back! Peter Brandt, founder of Factor LLC shares his technical insights on gold.
- Segment 6: Trader Vic Sperandeo continues traders corner with a focus on the USD and gold.
- Segment 7: We get an update on the ITA submitted to Heath Canada from Roger White, CEO and President of Theralase.
- Segment 8: President of the Mises Institute Jeff Deist joins us to discuss the background of the potential Vice Presidents.
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Nice hat Jeff.
That hat guy ain’t Jeff! 🙂
Who’s hat man then?
Jeff is on the top row 2nd over. I believe the guy in the hat is Ivan Bebek.
Hat man is Steven Jon Kaplan.
Ah. Thanks Matthew.
Thanks for the clarification,
At least I knew it wasn’t Big Al, lol:)
Yeah – and who is this Big Al guy anyway? He sounds like a nice gent……
Ivan Bebek is the first photo.
Thanks Bob M.
Skeeta is back in pole position. All is right with the world again….. 🙂
Agreed – Thanks Big Al & Cory for a jolly good show and the hard work you guys do to make this happen. Always nice to wake up and see a whole weekend show to review.
Cory is doing a great job and I am starting to have fun again.
Agreed. Cory’s making it happen. Congrats on having fun again Big Grampa (Big G).
Did not see the show posted until 6:00am EDT?
Sometimes there can be delays,
Fortunately for me Big Al always personally makes an international phone call to let me know its being uploaded within the next minute or two.
But shhhhhh, between you & me don’t go telling anyone else on here that. Big Al wanted it kept secret !
Cheers.
Ha. Funny Skeeta. Hope you have a great weekend!
“If you build it, they will swim…..”
I’m building it Ex 🙂
But the concrete still needs to cure for another few weeks before we can proceed with interior tiling etc.
Unfortunately concrete curing is slow….like watching grass grow.
But the kids are excited with the progress,
But our two dogs don’t can’t work out what the heck is going on, they just bark at all the workmen.
Cheers.
Sounds like a fun family project man, and I had a funny mental image there in my minds eye with the dogs. They’ll love it once they can jump in and paddle around.
Wishing you all the best!
Give me a phone number, Skeeta, I am happy to make that call!
Wow you ARE the chosen one indeed!
Sterling flash crash? Soros?
British Pound plunges to Three-Decade Low Amid Fat-Finger Speculation, ‘Hard Brexit’ Fears
Nyshka Chandran – Friday, 7 Oct 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/06/british-pound-sterling-crashes-to-fresh-three-decade-low.html
Obesity is an epidemic in the UK now – so many fat fingers.
We got our fair share of fat fingers here in the US. 😉
1.5 percent was certainly interesting Bob! Most certainly did not see that coming!
Ditto to Skeeta! Thanks for the further update on Auryn guys. Bob Moriarty says that given the company’s six major new targets for next year further buying is to be recommended before end 2016.
As for Sterling’s flash crash Bob, Alex Brummer in today’s Daily Mail sees the pound set for dollar parity. In contrast to the US jobless numbers last month suggesting ‘a still robust economy (!) and risk of inflation’ the B of E is ‘not ruling out continuing with its purchase of bonds (QE). And despite sterling’s fall making a further lowering of interest rates in November less likely, the Fed and B of E will still be moving in opposite directions meaning continued downward pressure on the pound. Brummer’s advice: ‘The seatbelt sign is on and passengers are ordered back to their seats’.
Thanks for your comment Andrew.
Thanks for the Theralase interview. That one will be a Life changer for me once they get going. Looking forward to the next interview already!
Hillary Clinton as “the devil we know”. That devil will take us straight to Hell, in my opinion, or at least to World War III as the CIA/Military-Industrial Complex/petrodollar status quo is enforced to the point of trying to turn Russia into a vassal state, and Putin will not submit to the Lucerifarians. Not without a fight, and Ukraine is just a skirmish compared to the Black Sea and Turkey’s threat to the Russian Navy.
Putin is a very intelligent leader Mrs. Clinton is simply a career politician and a very unlikeable one at that.
I personally think that the election is Trump’s to loose.
Please do not add more technical analysis on the show. There is too much already. They look at the same chart and have two opposite opinions. Little value in the long run. Al is correct. Please keep your integrity and emphasis fundamentals and deep thinking. Please, Please, Please. All this technical talk is way overboard. !!!!
Agree jhpace1 The BBC continues to vilify Trump while the she-devil gets no real exposure over the Clinton Foundation nor of Bill’s rapes.
I agree completely, both candidates are very problematic. But I feel the whole ‘canidate comparision’ / election is a distraction from a much bigger and more important issue. The US dept – if it ends badly the hard working US people could suffer for decades.
Wikileaks Releases 1st Batch of Hillary Emails with new releases every week until the election
Armstrongs says alot going on behind the curtain. Obama Officially Accuses Russia of Hacking the Election
I personally am very glad to see these come out. It will be truly interesting to see how the very powerful Clinton family handles this situation. I would guess that eventually a movie will be made out of this situation.
I don’t know that the election is an intended distraction, but it could very well be. Not just the US but most of the entire world is in trouble. We are witnessing the eventual shift of world power.
Off message but surely pretty relevant?
As Four Jack and a Jill sang, “It’s a Strange World We Live in Master Jack!”
Big Drops Do Not Mark Final Gold Bottoms
McClellan Financial Publications, Inc
Posted Oct 8, 2016
“Gold saw a huge 1-day drop on Tuesday, Oct. 4, triggering all sorts of rumors about a big fund having to liquidate, or maybe it was worries about ECB tapering. Whatever the cause eventually turns out to have been, the size of that drop by itself conveys important information.”
“The key: Big drops over 1 or 2 days typically do not mark the final low for a price decline in gold….”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan100816.html
We may yet get a further clearance sale in the metals complex. I’m getting dry powder ready to deploy if we really get a good rout in the prices and sentiment drops even further.
However, the Chinese come back from Holiday next week, while Canada markets are closed on Monday, and in the US is a pseudo holiday on Monday where the markets are open, but many banks/businesses/and the bond markets are closed.
It will take until Tuesday Morning to see what kind of trend is going to develop, and significantly that will be one week after the precipitous drop in metals & miners from this last Tuesday.
Good luck to everyone with their investing next week…. and Happy Thanksgiving to our friends in the North. Have a great long weekend.
Note that ROC is being discussed as a leading indicator.
Rate Of Change is a pretty straightforward map of price movement up or down, but I struggle with getting anything meaningful out of it because I don’t know how to set up the parameters to show the turns in more real time. It is usually a bit early or late, as as a result I like to watch the Slow Stochastics, ADX, and RSI for turns personally.
I use the MACD and TRIX as a confirming indicators of a trend change as they both tend to be lagging indicators.
I certainly echo your sentiments of the final paragraph Excelsior.
I am curious, what do you think of Rick’s comment that gold could fall considerably further based on his analysis.
See below.
The thought that the drop this week represented a final bottom never occurred to me. Did you happen to listen to Rick’s comment on this topic?
Yes, I did listen to Rick and 99% of the editorials every day Big Al.
On Friday I wrote down Rick’s hidden pivot level of $1216.50 which seems reasonable. Cory mentioned how closely this was to the 50% retracement of the move this year coming in near $1210. $35-$40 more downside to the Gold price doesn’t scare me in the slightest. Now, like Rick mentioned, if the Pre-Brexit low of $1207 fell it “wouldn’t be a sign of good health” for the yellow metal, and I’d get a bit more concerned if that played out. As for his furthest downside target of near $1060, I believe Rick would agree it is very premature to even look at that, as he (and most sensible traders) take support and resistance levels one step at time. I did right it down with his other targets on the back of an envelop though 🙂
Just a thought here – I mostly trade smaller mining companies and not just Gold or Silver, but in multiple sectors. As a result, I look at the merits and technical indicators for each company separately, but of course look at the pricing on the underlying key assets that are mining, but don’t get too hung up with it.
For example – even through the metals had a terrible week, I still traded a number of positions for a small profit this week, or added to positions while they were on sale. I knew the macro trend was going down in the metals, and was aware of it, but analyzing the price of Gold or Silver every 5 minutes would have been very counter-productive for the miners I was trading.
Another example, Uranium prices have sucked for years, but I’ve still found ways to be quite profitable and find the winning stories since 2011 and trade the counter-trend rallies, mergers, or exploration discoveries. I’ll admit that this most recent rout did catch me off-sides in a few companies and stung a bit.
Back to the point though – Overall, the spot prices of the underlying commodity are important, but I feel too many over-analyze every little $5-$50 dollar move in Gold and launch into all their theories about “THEM” or central banks, or HFT, or coins, or jewelry, or whatever. Those all play a part in the overall symphony of the marketplace, but there are just too many moving parts to pin the price movement down to 1 aspect on a longer term spectrum.
For example, this week I knew the trend in the metals was going to be down and only looked at the spot prices occasionally for my trading of mining shares. Said another way, I’m more macro on the metals and more micro on the miners.
The key is to follow the general trend in Gold / Silver (bullish or bearish) and then pay more attention when we get into an area where one would expect a turn in prices (key moving average, Fib retracement, prior peak or trough, fork resistance). When we approach those targets, then I sit up and pay more attention. This next week and the remainder of October I’ll be more zoomed in looking for the turn in metals as we’ve blown through many levels already, and while there may be some more downside to expect, the selling pressure is getting more exhausted.
When I see the indicators cross on the daily, and then weekly charts, then I’ll take that into account when deploying funds into the related miners looking for entry points.
Here’s a take from an interview on gold drop from an interview on bnn.also gives a plug to 2 gold plays that I happen to own one of as a disclaimer for those that have issues with that.😀
Oops.heres the link http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/10/tinka-resources-tkv-it-takes-very.html
Wow.i am never doing a post that early again….this time I got it right cuz I’m actually checking it.
http://www.bnn.ca/commodities/video/gold-s-coming-back-belo-sun-and-integra-are-ways-to-play-it~967001
Nice thanks Wolfster. Yes I saw that Otto post on Tinka from CEO as well. As for the BNN post on Belo Sun & Integra – very nice.
I’m watching all 3 companies very closely and was going to get started recently with Belo Sun, but opted for some other Silver stocks instead. However, they are in a small handful of Development stage projects that is undervalued, and the market place has really not taken notice of them yet. Maybe the BNN coverage will help.
Much appreciated.
________________________________________________________________________
WARNING: The company may be biased and stand to benefit by presenting the opportunities with their company. DYODD.
Belo Sun Mining Corp. – Corporate Slideshow – Beaver Creek PM Summit 2016
Peter Tagliamonte, President & CEO
(TSX: BSX)
WARNING: The company may be biased and stand to benefit by presenting the opportunities with their company. DYODD.
Integra Gold Corp. – Beaver Creek PM Summit 2016
Stephen de Jong, President & CEO
(TSX-V: ICG)
Spanky,
Very good post yesterday regarding gold had not yet bottomed! I would add that at this point I would not focus so much on gold but what the miners are telling us. Miners are getting ready to resume higher. It’s very clear to me the picture they are painting. Miners will continue to lead the way in this bull. They have a very long way to go just to reach peaks from 2011. I’m of the camp that those very peaks will be turned to dust once gold reaches 2000 plus.
I believe we soon run to that very 1500/1550 target I and others have mentioned here before and a much greater correction may come at that point.
Gold to bottom very soon
Miners have bottomed
Equities should begin a major correction soon or immediately after elections and dollar may go up temporarily but longer term it’s down!
Glen
Yes Glenfidish
Great thoughts as per usual Glenfidish. In my opinion, you nailed it much earlier in the year when you felt the metals may surprise investors by being stronger than is seasonally normal in the Summer, but that this may borrow from the more typical gains in the Fall. This is precisely what has played out so I gotta tip my hat to you sir.
I’m in agreement that the miners have indicated the turn in the metals and represent a good read on the sentiment of traders. I’ll be watching the miners more carefully than the metals for an indication when we’ll see a turn and then take the next leg higher.
As for a much great correction starting once Gold reaches $1500-$1550 that is an interesting longer term pattern to watch for. Until then…..
Cheers!
Gold is barely holding on to 1250 and has already gone below that. We would need 1.5 to 2 years to get to 1500+ as it looks like it may bottom near 1200 if it can hold there.
Don’t kid yourself Paul L, given current conditions in all parts of the world, gold could easily pop within a very short period of time.
I agree, and the action in the miners is telling me that it will.
Either way its going to be a fascinating upcoming week to watch the Mining stocks.
I don’t think I’ve seen so many analyst’s as divided on golds direction since the december lows?
Its interesting (to me anyhow) that some of those same who were bullish back then are saying the same thing now.
Whilst many who were bearish back then once again remain so for the same forthcoming timeframe.
Take your pick….6 of that…..or 1/2 dozen of the other 😉
Lets see if the miner’s see a bottom & turn up before golds spot does?
Cheers.
I wasn’t aware that the same people are bullish/bearish now as then. It makes sense, actually, since most people have a very hard time changing strongly held views.
Whether it takes several weeks or a few months for the sector to get going again, I feel very good about the buying I did last week.
I agree,
& we see it everywhere…be it the conventional stock market, politics & religious beliefs etc also.
So fortunately its not just limited to the gold market lol 🙂
Cheers.
Thanks for your comment Glen. Haven’t seen you here for awhile. But then, I have been absent also.
Now that the Twins are with us and Kathy has stabilized, I too have stabilized so you all are going to have to put up with me again!
Hi al
I’m always here lurking in the back! When you have such heavyweights as Matthew,doc,shad and many others I enjoy reading, we never miss a beat. Thank you kindly and I hope all is well with you and your family. I’m enjoying a wonderful thanksgiving weekend with family and friends. Come Tuesday I won’t ever want to see another turkey.
Matt keep up the good work that you kindly share with us. I’ve said this once and I will say it again, you are truly a master at your craft and I know that you would be the first to say that not every trade is a winning trade but your calls are really impressive and your vision second to none.
Doc thanks for all the work you out in as well! Your calm approach and level. Indeed tips are truly good for the audience.
Shad it doesn’t matter if it’s cut and paste or pencil and eraser, you have a wealth of knowledge and the companies you share here on the daily are truly good ones. I’ve learned from you as well. Keep up the good work my friend.
Brian/Peter you both also have a vast amount of experience and seem to do well with your direction. Thank you both also for your continuous post.
Lastly to the long timers around here you all know who I’m referring to. Keep up the great work. At a time were the going is about to get tuff again, keep the debt tidy, cash on hand and wait for the best of opportunitys that are yet to come in the Canadian housing and commodities future!
All the best guys
Cheers Glenfidish
Thanks a lot, Glenn. It’s good to see you here once in awhile. 🙂
The real estate market that you’ve been waiting for is finally starting to unfold (and I’m sure you’ve already known that for months):
Thanks for the kind words Glenfidish…..always happy to share investing ideas sir.
It’s funny that you brought up the “cut and paste” comment that I repeatedly got grief from 2 posters about. Yes, I paste articles & specific and targeted lists that catch my attention (but many of the lists I take the time to compile, sort, and manage manually which is very time consuming). In addition, many times specific segments are also included from a given piece to highlight, or point out a key passage for lazy readers 🙂
My whole motivation to post this kind of content is to get a conversation going around them or because I think other investors may like them just as much. Sure readers here could go find ALL of them on their own, but they’d have to hit about 20 different sites and read over a TON of garbage articles that don’t get posted on here.
It is very subjective of course, but I try to put up articles, news, or thoughts that are interesting, entertaining, may move a sector, or specific company information of note, and most importantly may lead to better investing. Even when what is posted is an editorial or a paid pump, if there is information of value contained in it then is seems helpful to throw it up on the blog for other as well.
****** Trust me…….It would be FAR EASIER for me and require MUCH LESS TIME to just not post ANY of it. It has crossed my mind to just give up posting for the benefit of others and keep my thoughts to myself. But, what in the hell is the point of blog if you aren’t going to share ideas and information ? As an example, I know I sure appreciate it when CFS puts up some many posts as a starting off point of a discussion. *******
For clarity, sometimes I also post articles that I feel 180 degrees differently than, just to present the OTHER SIDE of the discussion. (normally those are ones that do generate discussion, but sometimes readers assume I agree with it and that is why I posted it and they want to argue a point we are already in agreement with). One can learn a great deal by reading over analysis or articles that they don’t 100% disagree with, because it clarifies their own position better. I realize some don’t see it that way and only want to read things they agree with, but that doesn’t stretch one’s thinking or make them grow.
Lastly, it just seems odd to be called the “cut & paste guy” because I post just as much personal commentary, riffs, rants, and jabs as others do (but include the articles, editorials, or press releases for a deeper diver into that subject or topic). In addition, I frequently post my own charts for reflection, and the only cut and paste involved there is the link when I’m done with the chart.
Depending on the day or week there are many “commentary only” thoughts posted on different commodities, sectors like Gold or Silver miners, the Uranium sector & miners, the Lithium Sector & miners, Renewable energy news, developing technology, PGM group miners or fundamental drivers, Specialty metals that don’t get discussed as often, Agricultural stock of notice, and even get into Bonds, Currencies, and Emerging markets sometimes. Most importantly, there are usually stocks or ETFs mentioned that investors can trade, and if investors aren’t going to do that then all the commentary and philosophy remains just that; but doesn’t make them a single penny.
I apologize about the length of this rant, but It cracks me and slightly disappointments me that people think all I do is “cut & paste,” (it’s a put-down really) as some of my editorials are very long and take a long time to write. Regardless, I know that your remarks were complimentary in nature and I do greatly appreciate that Glenfidish. I’d like to hear your thoughts and commentary a little more regularly on here, as they are always thought provoking.
****BTW – I completely agree with your sentiment about folks you named directly Matthew, Doc, Brian, Peter, and all the KER “Old-Timers” you mentioned. There are actually dozens of very sharp investors on here, and some only post occasionally (such as yourself), and it would be great to hear from you more often lad. Some contributors post regularly and we all benefit from the collective wisdom on here.
You’re more than a cut and paste guy as far as I’m concerned.An encyclopedia of mining stocks and info with a mix of intelligent insights and banter with the occasional bit of wit….stopping there before it starts sounding like a bromance.😍😍😍
Ha! Thanks Wolfster. Right back atcha.
Always interested in sharing ideas and a little banter with kind folks on the KER. 😮
After all that how about a nice cut & paste. I like this guy “@stateside” over at ceo. His weekly Comanus Rising is worth reviewing if you like smaller jr stocks in various commodity sectors that few follow. He’s a newsletter writter, so he may be compensated in someway for his site, but mostly I think he just talks about stocks or sectors he’s interested in and doesn’t have a position in many of them. Enjoy!
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October 8th, 2016 Comanus Rising Podcast:
In this episode of the Comanus Rising podcast we take a look back at the week in gold and gold stocks, talk about the attack on gold by the naked shorts at a time when liquidity was low and the Chinese were on their week long holiday and we talk about the news from the Canadian junior exploration sector including: Otis Gold $OOO Manitok Energy $MEI Tueton Resources $TUO Apex Resources $APX Goldquest Mining $GQC Secova Metals $SEK Bell Copper $BCU Pure Gold Mining $PGM Northisle Copper & Gold $NCX Kaneh Bosm Biotechnology $KBB Nexgen Energy $NXE Inventus Mining $IVS Newmarket Gold $NMI Irving Resources $IRV Canalaska Uranium $CVV Gainey Capital $GNC Alset Energy $ION Sirious Resources $SOI Copper Reef Mining $CZC Erdene Resource Development $ERD Elysee Development Corp $ELC Algold Resources $ALG Valgold Resources $VAL Colorado Resources $CXO Corsa Coal $CSO Playfair Mining $PLY – We talk gold, silver, zinc, lead, copper, uranium, coal, oil, gas, diamonds and lithium.
Some other commodities, which also have been in a bear market, appear to have bottomed or in the process of bottoming.
Even oil has more strength than many were predicting.
Segment 3 with Steferle was a refreshing change from the non-stop “technicals” discussion and phraseology from others about “gold has a lot of work to do”, “the precious metals charts show much damage” and babble about moving averages. First time in a week that anyone mentioned the Chinese being on the sidelines for the week, and thousands of PM derivatives being puked into the market.
You make an interesting point Rand. Thank you.
I must admit that I agree with you, a little bit, about “non-stop technicals”. Also, I am watching intently next week – if there is a sharp upward reversal on Monday, attributed to China, I will have to re-think some of my own assumptions about manipulated markets.
To me, technical analysis is used to buy and sell individual stocks (investment, not trading). In addition, an over-abundance of TA, either with too many indicators or too many timelines, can be counter-productive and confusing for people like me. But I must admit to really enjoying TA and analyzing other people’s charts and interpretations.
I also find most fundamental analysis related to gold and silver not very useful. The analysis of company-specific fundamentals, on the other hand, is extremely important for my investment strategies and criteria.
To be honest, the KER combination of listener comments and guests is the best free resource in existence for basic PM investing (GoldTentTA and CEO.CA for specialists)
Happy Investing,
Brian
Well stated Brian.
I think that the TNX/PRII will show a change when the indicator turns down again to continue the downtrend. I added the ROC to the discussion, which is showing now the depth of the trough, only that gold prices only priced in the correction after an extensive sluggish period. You can compare the latest trough in gold prices to moves in the fall of 2010:
My brother in law a fanatic trump supporter has now decided to vote for Gary Johnson, other friends are also thinking of voting for Johnson . I predict within 7 days all major repubs will unendorse him and he will be compelled to resign the compange. Gold looks cheap but i am waiting to buy more. love to all S
Gary Johnson is not a Libertarian!
Above that he is not even intelligent!
Anybody that votes for him, no matter how much he hates the D and R candidates must be really stupid.
It makes more sense to vote for “NONE OF THE ABOVE”
+1
Johnson makes Libertarians look terrible – which is probably his job.
You can say that again. Gary Johnson has another ‘Aleppo moment’ as he insists he knows the name of North Korea’s dictator – but won’t say it
It is interesting to see a couple of old pitchforks remain relevant to gold. First, here’s a Schiff fork from 2012:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p64828020223&a=480942204
And here’s a version of that fork in which the first point is moved forward 50% of the way to the second point to give us the so-called modified Schiff fork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p81235619136&a=480942586
I do not want to see that median support line give way on a closing basis (weekly). If it does, then a move below 1100 will become much more likely.
Btw, it would be more bullish if the Schiff fork support on the first chart holds (at 1245 for the coming week).
We have a confluence of arc support at the 1200 level:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p60169153456&a=369192745
Another example of government incompetence is demonstrated by Canada.
With the real estate market actually declining since about April, the Canadian government changes mortgage insurance rules and takes lower income earners right out of the possibility of home purchase.
Then in W.Vancouver they attempt to take out foreign top end purchasers!
The best government is the least government, but they never learn.
Continuing on with the theme of government incompetence….
There is virtually no chance of an interest rate rise in November, but now Wall St. Is rating about a 60% chance of a rate increase of 0.25% in Decenber.
NOW THINK ABOUT THE LOGIC!
The Fed wants to raise interest rates, so that it has room to lower them and stimulate growth if we go into recession.
HOWEVER, Leading Economic Indicators are now indicating that GDP is slowing down, and that we could be in recession conditions by the end of this year.
So, in other words the Fed is likely to raise interest rates thereby causing a recession, so it can lower interest rates to stimulate growth. What kind of common sense does that make?
With regard to Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks:
I am not a trader, but had sold off some stocks to take advantage of a drop in price to buy back into some better stocks.
I had lowball offers in on several stocks, which I raised on Friday morning.
I am surprised that I managed to buy very few of the stocks I was trying to buy.
The market was not as soft as one might think for some stocks that had made good presentations at conferences.
A final thought in PM prices is that I believe Friday was the local bottom in prices.
I fully expect strong Chinese buying to occur on Monday.
Historically, Chinese buying volume correlates with the inverse of prices; exactly opposite mentality of American buyers.
An interesting article……
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-prices-fall-just-in-time-for-diwali/articleshow/54710706.cms
It appears the recent price drop in gold also awakes buying from India.
With regard to the drop in GBP; that was a deliberate attack on the pound.
I don’t know if it was the action of that piece of scum named George Soros, but it has the imprimatur of his method of operation. He is a destructive low life, that relishes profiting from causing strife and conflict.
LEEB on KWN is about worth listening to:
https://soundcloud.com/kingworldnews/dr-stephen-leeb-1082016/s-U09xF
I know most here are interested in materials and mining.
But there are incredible advances being made in technology.
Put a computer on your head with a holographic projection display and….
Unbelievable. R.g. Hololens is one example.
A person wearing a Hololens can pull up as many displays or windows as they want, wherever they want, and in whatever size desired. Want to have 12 screens on your wall? No problem. Want to watch Netflix from an 80-inch screen on your ceiling while lying on your bed? You got it.
There’s almost no limit to what you can do in the new world of holographic computing.
e.g.X-Ray Vision:
The “Hololens”technology has reached the point where one can create some really compelling experiences.
Citizen Inc. partnered with Microsoft and Stanford Medical to create a proof-of-concept that allows a radiologist and a surgeon to take MRI data captured before surgery, put that information into a Hololens, and actually project that data onto the body of the patient in preparation for surgery.
“It’s almost like giving the surgeon X-ray vision,” according to the manufacturer.
Sorry, if this sounds like a commercial, but medical electronics is moving even faster than Pharma.
YouTube of microsoft’s technology for Hololens (Not particularly good video, but illustrative of what $3000 in technology buys)
Thanks for that post CFS. I’m interested in the effects and interactions of technology in our daily human lives. It’s a brave new world…..
Here’s the manufacturer’s video
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pLd9WPlaMpY&feature=youtu.be
If Hillary is elected, the word will be out that you can do business with the government now, if you could only fix things up with the right man, Bill. DT
Even Bernie supporter Susan Sarandon can see that Hillary is scarier than Trump…
blown away when I read this as I am a share holder impact silver. what do you make of this matthew & excelsior???…Impact has been successfully losing money at Zacualpan since 2015 2014 2013 2012! They had an unfashionable case of profitability in Q4, 2015, but fortunately they are back to losing money again!
Avino – best word is – Breakeven.
http://angrygeologist.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-lowest-grade-mines-in-world-silver.html
from the angry geologist!
Nice link dw jones, thanks.
I’ll leave your impact questions to those who are invested in them…I ain’t.
But at the end of that piece he mentions the Cobar silver mine operated by Southern Cross Goldfields closed in March 2014.
Errrr…..I’m all for sensational headlines or fill in puff pieces if in actual fact the details are correct ?
But IIRC, Southern Cross Goldfields (Later known as Black Oak Minerals) didn’t even own that mine at that time.
The Wonawinta project (Cobar) was owned & operated by ASX listed Cobar Consolidated back then when it was shut down & went into administration.
But surely a geologist who professes to know all the facts, would know not only of the geology, but also the companies & correct names actually involved in mining the same mineral/s?
Or not?
Anyhow.
Cheers
Ha! That was a great response Skeeta. Maybe the emphasis is on the “Angry” and not the “Geologist”. 🙂
I have no argument with whatever grades he puts up (undoubtedly he would know far more than me on that subject).
But if your going to put the knife into a project?
No drama?
But at least get the name of the mine operator correct at the time stated of closure.
Its reeks of lazy, internet scanning BS…not actual research nor knowledge on what he is professing to know.
It only comes across as more like lazy geology, research & knowledge than it does as angry.
Cheers.
Oh I agree that it was lazy research and I would add “incomplete” as to the future economics of the projects once Silver is back at $20+. The angry part was just a little levity.
I would also think he would take into account the drilling results from both companies showing the grade improving, or include the other mine for Avino, or the fact that they’ll start producing next year from 5 years worth of old tailings and this will drive their costs down substantially and their revenues up. His “break-even is the best you can hope for” is so out of touch with the situation that its embarrassing.
Avino Completes New Resource Estimate For Producing Property In Mexico
September 26, 2016
I’d recommend that investors that want to see the growth profile, projected production and revenue estimations should refer to the slides below for the full picture:
Avino Silver & Gold – Q3 Corporate Presentation:
In particular pages (7 – 16) of the presentation. This of course also gives 0 value to the Bralorne Gold project….. but let’s not worry about that ….. 😮
First off I’ll say that I agree with the response to his article from another reader:
_________________________________________________________________________
UnknownOctober 8, 2016 at 9:17 PM
“As for Impact Silver their upside is from the exploration they’ve been doing where in May 2016, the Company announced some of the best drilling intersections ever reported in the district at San Ramon Deeps, including 14.82 meters of 481g/t silver. ”
“As for Avino, they also have the input from the San Gonzalo Mine, and they are about to put their old talings into production next year for a 3rd input. Their AISC is just a little over $14, so when metals prices resume their uptrend again and silver gets back up close to $20+ their operations should be quite a bit more profitable than break even. I also like that the off-take agreement with Samsung underpins their operations as a good partnership.”
___________________________________________________________________________
Two points:
1) This “Angry” Geologist gives them no value for their exploration upside which is where the real value is since they already have mining and processing methods established. The recent drilling at “San Ramon Deeps, including 14.82 meters of 481g/t silver” is significant indeed since they are currently on mining ore that averages 182 g/t Silver.
Said another way, those new drilling discoveries have Twice The Grade. If you couple that with an overall rising metals price environment over the next few years then you can see why investors are so interested in Impact Silver.
2) There is no doubt that Impact (like most small Silver miners) lost money the last few years in the Bear market. I find it a completely unhelpful point, except for the fact that it illustrates why the rise in precious metals will be such a game-changer for the smaller producers and development companies. It has a much more dramatic effect on them that the larger household names like Silver Standard or Pan American or Fresnillo or Tahoe.
This prior lack of profitability is exactly why the shares experienced such a climb as Silver prices starting increasing this year. Their margins improve exponentially once Silver gets up into the low $20’s, and that is the case with most of the small producers that have been struggling and producing at a loss the last few years.
The effect of every $1 in Silver increase produces huge leverage with Small silver producers and Silver development companies like Impact, Avino, Amercias Silver, Excellon, Alexco, Brixton, Great Panther, SantaCruz Silver, Minco, etc… That’s the exact point, they’ve been losing money the last few years in the bear markets in PMs, but when the metals turn up, those stocks are going to scream higher as the metal prices keep inching up in 2017, 2018, 2019.
This is why we were discussing at the end of last year and beginning of this year wanting to accumulate “The Best of the Worst”. 🙂
That is where the most improvement in margins and effect on share price can be realized, and thus those stocks hovering right on the line of being profitable have the most torque to the upside and downside. That is why impact just corrected about 50% of the move up this year when metals prices slipped. When Silver is back up near $20-$22 or above Impact will soar.
BTW – The exact same philosophy of finding the “Best of the Worst” is true for the Small Gold producers and development companies.
Find the producers that are working to bring their costs down but have just barely been producing at a loss and thus are slightly underwater. In addition they need to have a enough in the treasury to get them through any other ripples like we are getting currently. Lastly, these small producers or mothballed development projects need a good growth profile and real exploration upside, and then you’ll have located a Gold stock that will have some of the most leverage to a rising Gold price. Just my 2 cents and experience in watching the behavior of the miners for quite some time. The only things that will do better are the few rare explorers that really hit a major discovery. There is no greater thrill or reward than a bonanza-grade discovery. Those are much harder to predict though, and there are a million problems that derail a good thesis. That’s why I feel a little better in EXPLORATION projects that happen to have a permitted project with a Feasibility Study (so that it is somewhat derisked), or better yet an Exploration company that happens to have 1 or 2 operating mines. 🙂
Cheers!
For those interested in where the action is going to come from Impact Silver check out Pages (23-24) of their Corporate Presentation:
The plan to put the San Juan Gold/Copper zone into production and their ability to bring their Capire Silver mine back into production (that is currently on care and maintenance), is a huge amount of stored upside IMO.
This is similar to Aurcana, Alexco, and Nicola Mining with Silver mines currently on care and maintenance that can be switched back on when Silver get’s north of $20.
Speaking of Aurcana…….. For those that have not kept up to date on their progress:
Aurcana Corporation – Corporate VIDEO Slide Presentation
9/19/2016 – Denver Gold Forum presentation
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/xpl16/company-webcast/AUN:CN/
DW Jones, that is mostly accurate, which is why the turn in silver resulted in such massive gains for Impact this year. That leverage was the result of small changes in the silver price having a huge effect (percentage wise) on future earnings.
It fell from a high of $3.14 in 2011 to as low as .11 in 2016 because of the loss of profitability and then growing net losses. Toward the end of the bear market, the final huge declines had a lot to do with the fact that the silver price had fallen to a level that drastically reduced the value of the assets in the ground (another source of leverage which finally worked in shareholders’ favor when silver began to rise).
Since IPT has no debt and had been improving its Q over Q results prior to the January low, I had no problem at all buying a lot of it at and near the low. Americas Silver, on the other hand, did cause me some stress as it was losing close to $5M per quarter when it bottomed at .055 (I bought a lot anyway though). But that’s another story…
Since I am very bullish silver for at least the next few years, I am very happy to own Impact. It is very likely to do extremely well and still has a lot of leverage to the silver price built in – which is why it fell 55% since August while silver fell 18%.
I strongly believe that it will exceed its 2011 high (when silver was $50) well before silver reaches $30.
I don’t know who that angry geologist is, but the situation is not as bad as he makes it sound. There have been real improvements made but he would have to look at the details to notice them.
I’m not going to go into them now but I will say that Q2 2016 was much better than Q2 2015:
-Revenues for the second quarter were $4.4 million, a significant increase from $2.7 million in 2015. The 61% increase was due to higher silver prices, and greater production tonnage.
-EBITDA improved to $0.6 million for the second quarter of 2016 compared to a negative EBITDA of $0.8 million for the same period of 2015.
-Mine operating earnings before amortization and depletion2 improved significantly by $1.5 million to $1.3 million in Q2 2016 from a loss of $0.2 million in Q2 2015.
+1
Step back from the brink…
There was an interesting post up on CEO referencing the Peter Brandt interview on the KER.
Thought I’d post his thought and relections here for review:
___________________________________________________________________________
@Picsou – “With regards to #Korelin segment 5 speaker claim (posted by @miningbookguy, thanks for that btw), it is pretty obvious from the below chart that #smartmoney is driving the show. ”
http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1bvkjgg-Gold_futures.png
“A couple of observations:”
“1. The relative increase in smart money net long as been much more pronounced at the cycle turn in January than after the #Brexit referendum
2. The bulk of the increase to say 175k (vs 200k current positionning) mark was prior to end April at prices below ~1250
3. The bulk of the increase beyond the 175k mark actually occurred before rather than after the Brexit referendum (prices below ~1310)
4. The largest cumulative drawdown in smart money net long positioning has so far been -32% (between beginning and end of May)
5. The current cumulative drawdown is -27% based on 04/10 #CFTC data, when #gold closed at ~1283, knowing it got knocked down further to 1250”
“Hence we must be very near to the bottom, and I see very limited downside (nowhere near to what the #Korelin speaker is suggesting), the risks are definitely skewed to the upside in the absence of material economic newsflow next week and given the likelihood of $DB coming back to front stage and potentially other bad news.”
The appearance of a long-legged doji on the silver chart on Friday is indicative of a reversal coming soon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p95401629212
“Long-legged doji have long upper and lower shadows that are almost equal in length. These doji reflect a great amount of indecision in the market. Long-legged doji indicate that prices traded well above and below the session’s opening level, but closed virtually even with the open. After a whole lot of yelling and screaming, the end result showed little change from the initial open.”
Among the signs that this pullback is just that, a pullback, and nothing more, include the fact that the miners have held up better than the metals and the riskier juniors have held up the best of all. Not only do they remain above moving averages that the metals and the senior miners have already broken, but they have also shown the least bearish (downside) strength.
In fact, the safer the segment within the sector, the worse it has performed – and that is a very good sign. The daily RSI(14) readings are as follows:
Gold: 24.35
Silver: 27.90
GDX: 30.22
GDXJ: 33.31
and most of my nano-caps are in the mid to high 40s.
Compare that to February 20, 2013 when the sector was about to have huge declines in the months ahead. The RSI on that day (which marked an eight day 13% decline for GDX), was around 20 for gold, silver, and GDX while GDXJ hit 15. If the sector is about to go down in a big way, it is logical to expect the juniors to lead the way since they are the most speculative (and therefore have the most to lose if the metals go down). We aren’t seeing that leadership now because the smart money sees this pullback as an opportunity to position for higher prices not lower ones. So the market movers (big money) are logically gravitating to the part of the sector that will perform best if the metals go up. In doing so, they are showing that they are confident about their bullishness (if they were less confident, they might just select the metals and seniors since they will also do well if they are right).
Good observations… thanks!
Am I right in believing the GLOBEX opens up this evening a couple of hours ahead of Australia and 3 hours or so ahead of the SGE?
If that is the case should one expect another knockdown ahead of China buying when the SGE opens?
Any comments?
I answered myself. The GLOBEX is closed, so no takedown before Chinese buying.
GLOBEX regular open at 5:00 p.m. (for trade date
of Oct. 11).
Monday, Oct. 11 Foreign exchange and interest rate products traded
on CME’s trading floors are closed.
Commodity, stock index and GSCI products will trade
their normal hours.
Products traded on GLOBEX during Regular Trading
Hours (RTH) close as follows: foreign exchange and
interest rates close at 3:15 p.m. (same as stock
indexes); regular close for commodity, stock index
and GSCI products.
GLOBEX resumes trading at its regular time (for
trade date of Oct 12).
Is anyone on this site looking at companies commercializing CRISPR.?
Someone will get a Nobel prize for that work, but it is a technology that will change our world.
For those that don’t know what the CRISPR technique is or companies involved, here is a summary:
http://crisprtx.com/news-events/press-releases_2015-30-09.php
The latest Gary Savage:
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com
I am having trouble posting on this (Kereport) site.
I do not know the cause.
I cannot detect any virus on my system…
Here is the Goldseek weekly podcast:
http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2016/10.07.2016/GSR-10.07.16-c.mp3
They discuss the problem low interest rates are causing pensions and other things.
Allow me to predict what will happen to social security and Federal Government pensions…….
There will be NO default or failure to pay, as many “experts” are predicting.
The Federal Government will announce that it has problems and might get around to changing age limits and perhaps might means test, but the US Government will simply borrow money. If money cannot be borrowed, it will monetize the pension problem and print money.
To some extent this will cause the dollar index to fall, prices to increase.
Pensions, however, will not rise commensurate with inflation, because the inflation numbers are manipulated by the government.
No default, but simply a slowly dropping standard of living for those relying on social security and pensions.
Chris Temple – If you see this I’d be curious to get your thoughts on SolGold.
This is from a poster on CEO over the weekend:
@Oliver – “SolGold* (SOLG LN) 18.8p, Mkt Cap £229.3m – Board considers investment proposal from BHP Billiton”
” Solgold reports that it has received a proposal from BHP Billiton to acquire a 10% interest in Solgold for US$30m and to earn in to the Cascabel project itself through spending US$275m “to acquire 70% “ of Solgold’s 85% interest in the local company ENSA.”
> The board considers the proposal is “NOT in the best interests of Solgold and its shareholders.”
> The BHP Billiton proposal is subject to a number of conditions which include a 60 day period of due diligence on the property and that the Solgold board should recommend the withdrawal of the motions “to approve the previously announced US$33 million financing with Maxit > Capital LP (Maxit) and Newcrest Mining Limited (Newcrest) and shareholders not approving the same”. $SOLG.L $CGP $BHP #Ecuador by SP Angel – Economics / Mining”
Here is the full press release for reference:
SolGold Receives Investment Proposal from BHP Billiton
10 October 2016
http://solgold.com.au/userfiles/2016%2010%2010%20-%20Proposal%20Received%20from%20BHP%20Billiton.pdf
WARNING: John Kaiser has a subscription service and may be compensated in other ways or have a bias to the Jr Resource sector.
Have Junior Miners Been Hurt by Gold’s Sudden Drop?
Discovery Watch with John Kaiser
http://www.howestreet.com/2016/10/06/junior-miners-golds-sudden-drop/
Matthew,
“Long-legged doji have long upper and lower shadows that are almost equal in length. These doji reflect a great amount of indecision in the market. Long-legged doji indicate that prices traded well above and below the session’s opening level, but closed virtually even with the open. After a whole lot of yelling and screaming, the end result showed little change from the initial open.”
Who are you quoting?
That was taken from stockcharts. I put the link directly below the quote (also at 9:08 am).
Ok
Thanks for the show as always fella’s, much appreciated.
Cheers.