UBS Chairman Warns Central Bank Intervention Is Forcing Investors “To Make Bad Choices With Their Money”

With the endless jawboning from officialdom that ‘everything is awesome’ (or about to be) in a desperate attempt to keep the status quo fumbling along, it is once again refreshing when an ex-insider ‘fesses up that, in fact, nothing is awesome and it’s a total shitshow below the surface.

UBS Chairman Axel Weber is a former policymaker at The ECB and was the president of Germany’s Bundesbank.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/ubs-chairman-warns-central-bank-intervention-forcing-investors-make-bad-choices-thei

The PM rallies last night were probably some of the Asian buyers, but honestly there wasn’t very much strength from the Asian buyers as many pontificated about. It’s a factor but I wasn’t in the camp that the sell-off had to do with the Chinese being on holiday in the first place. With the Canadians markets closed today for Thanksgiving and many Americans off of work on vacation today for Columbus Day, I think the way the Tuesday markets go will be more of an indicator as to the temperament of the markets.

I wish to point out that technically silver is oversold in the US.
Also it has not breached an equivalent of $18 on the SGE.
Volume in Asia appears good, but they don’t ever seem to want to drive prices up, while they accumulate more physical.

Impact silver has Avery strange volume behavior. For the past 6 months or so, often associated with news releases or newsletter commentaries, there is a large volume spike at or close to the beginning of the month, and then just low volume for the rest of the month. Strange, I do not know the cause, but I have noticed similar behavior prior to a takeover attempt of when a mutual fund is trying to accumulate.
I do not own a significant holding of Impact Silver shares, which is probably a mistake, but it what it is.

My iPad incorrected “a very” to Avery.

Jaguar bounced precisely, last week, from support provided by an Andrew’s pitchfork that was drawn off of weekly closes (arrow). That level happened to get additional support from the rising middle Bollinger band (which is the 20 period MA).

It is a gold company, btw, not silver.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=W&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p48503428384&a=453003926

I see Russia has agreed to limit oil production if OPEC can agree on total oil production limits.

Also I notice upward movement in coal related stocks today. e.g. WLB up 7’%, SXC up 5%
(Not recommendations, just an observation)

WARNING – THIS WILL BE A LONG POST ON JAGUAR MINING.

It may be a good idea to keep future posts going by tagging them onto the CFS post up above. I’ve waited until later in the day to post this to let some other comments roll in, but feel there is value in revisiting some of the past data shared as it relates to Jaguar Mining.

**** Honestly, I am very surprised about the confusion that both Rick and Cory had about what happened in the past to the share price of Jaguar. Jaguar Mining has been discussed quite regularly on the KER for quite some time and the reason for the restructuring would be clear to anyone that has followed along on the blog for over a year.

*It has been mentioned repeatedly that JAG used to be one of the premier mid-tier Gold stocks and traded up near $6 in the last cycle. Then it had an epic fall from grace, went into credit restructuring, emerged with its mines and other development projects, and then brought in an entirely new management team (many of the ex-Crocodile Gold team). Eric Sprott jumped on board this year after lengthy discussions here on the KER.

Personally I’ve invested a great deal of time into highlighting JAG as one of the best turn-around stories in the Gold space for over a year, and Matthew has posted literally DOZENS of fantastic charts showing trading ranges, the upside potential, short term pullbacks and rally targets.

*** Since it’s a slow day and since Jaguar Mining is one of the 3 featured stocks on Rick’s Editorial today, then it seems like a good time for a recap and to post a little past Jaguar mining talk that I posted to the KER blog. This illustrates the journey JAG has been on, and how any investor reading this blog could have participated in the nice rise in share-price this year. I see merit in reviewing the prior posts on the KER and pointing out the journey the Stock has taken.

(IF YOU AREN’T INTERESTED IN JAGUAR MINING THEN SCROLL ON BY; OR POST UP ABOVE BY TAGGING YOUR COMMENTS OFF OF THE PRIOR CFS POST UP ABOVE.

(This will allow others to keep the conversation going up and not whine about scrolling)

__________________________________________________________________________

Jaguar Mining discussions – JAG TALK …. [2015 & 2016]

•—-> On April 2, 2015 at 11:27 am,
Shad says:
I still have some positions and hold about 40 companies in my portfolio in various other equities, and still have about a dozen Jr. Miners that l think make great takeout targets for a major (like Rye Patch, Exeter, Tower Hill Mines, Scorpio Mining, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, North American Palladium, Silvercrest mines, Romarco Minerals, Crocodile Gold, Golden Queen, Inca One, Torex Gold, and Jaguar Mining).

•——> On April 10, 2015 at 3:47 pm,
Shad says:

Currently, here are some on my list of Jr Miners as potential takeover targets:
Exeter, International Tower Hill Mines, Rye Patch, GoGold Resources, Golden Queen, Torex Gold, Silvercrest Mines, Crocodile Gold, Aurico Gold, Inca One Gold, Romarco, Idaho North, Bear Creek, Typhoon, Niogold, Jaguar Mining, Garibaldi Resources.

•——> On August 5, 2015 at 11:08 am,
Shad says:

For Gold, I’ve got a position in Romarco (merging with Oceanagold), Exeter, Torrex, Jaguar, Golden Queen, and Rye Patch as they were some of my hold out takeover targets.

However, I interested in getting back some of my producers like Guyana Goldfields, Lake Shore Gold, Claude, Klondex, Kirkland Lake, Yamana, Argonaut, Sandstorm, and maybe a position in SGDJ. I may even grab a position in True Gold.

•——> On August 13, 2015 at 12:28 pm,
Shad says:

I did hold onto a few miners like Americas Silver Corp, Rye Patch, Exeter, Platinum Group Metals, Mandalay Resources, Jaguar Mining, Golden Queen, some of my Sandstorm Gold, some SIL & partial SWC positions. I also started a small position in Sierra Metals yesterday.

•—–> On August 20, 2015 at 4:49 pm,
Shad says:

No – I sold out of my JNUG earlier in the week. I did ride a a partial Argonaut Gold position, a Americas Silver Corp position, a Sandstorm Gold position, as small Mandalay Resources position, a small Sierra Metals position, a partial position in Stillwater mining, and picked up a small position in Coeur this morning that appreciated nicely throughout the day. I also have some other smaller explorers like Rye Patch, Exeter, Platinum Group Metals, Torex Gold, Jaguar Mining, Golden Queen and a few others that didn’t do much, but I’m holding these as takeover targets.

•—–> On October 14, 2015 at 1:12 pm,
Excelsior says:

The markets have been kind to my miners lately with many up in double-digits the last few weeks.

*The winner for me today was Jaguar up over 51% at the end of the day. Nice.
Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAGGF) OTC
0.24 Up 0.08(51.61%) 3:02PM EDT

•—-> On October 15, 2015 at 9:15 am,
Excelsior says:

Well, Jaguar was due and is still due for more of a re-rating. Back in the last PM cyclical bull this stock was many multiples higher, it ran into a few snags right as the markets tanked, when all the way down to bankruptcy, restructured, came out, and they’ve been gradually making improvements in production and cost controls quarter after quarter, yet the price stayed buried. Maybe they are finally getting noticed again since the metals have been perking up a bit.

•—-> On February 14, 2016 at 2:04 pm,
Excelsior says:

I just see the potential for more surprise to the upside or a takeover than surprise to the downside at this point. I feel the same way about Jaguar mining for Gold who has a similar narrative coming out of credit protection but having real assets in place.

5 yr chart for Nicola Mining to show the fall from grace…… May be a great turnaround.

•—-> On March 4, 2016 at 7:25 am,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Mining Announces Large Reserve Increase at Pilar Gold Mine
TORONTO, March 4, 2016
{press release}

•—-> On March 11, 2016 at 12:42 pm,
Excelsior says:

I also added to Jaguar Mining yesterday but that is in with my gold stocks that I left basically untouched recently hoping for a test of $1308.

•—–> On March 12, 2016 at 5:47 pm,
Excelsior says:

As for Jaguar and Aurcana, I own shares of both at at attractive levels, and have been nibbling at both for the last few months. I agree they are much more high risk, but also could be 10-15 baggers, hence the reason I took the risk
I remember them both from much higher levels, and while Aurcana only has the TX Shafter Mine now, I think they have turned the corner on their stupid management calls, have cleared house in their management team, and assembled a better direction, and lastly they’ve restructured already so most of the downside is factored in, but the upside is going to be worth the candle. As for Jaguar, a very similar story. They have 2 mines with exploration upside, they just expanded mine-life by over 300% and I remember when they were a $6 stock. When they came out of restructuring, I started following them again. I find that when stocks actually arise from restructuring with real assets and a real plan that they can blow the doors off most stocks. This is the exact same reason why I have such high hopes for Nicola Mining (formerly Huldra Silver). This is also why I am starting to invest in the Uranium company Paladin again, who also just restructured and has real assets and mines.
All 4 companies: Aurcana, Jaguar, Nicola Mining, and Paladin have very good odds of being fantastic turn around stories and possibly take out targets down the road now that they’ve sorted out their dirty laundry. I am up for a little risk and am hanging on to those waiting for the upside surprise (but still cognizant that there could still be a downside fail).

•—–> On March 15, 2016 at 2:46 am,
Excelsior says:

I included Jaguar with the Mid-tier Gold producers because they are producing 90,000-95,000 ounces of Gold in 2016, but have their 3rd mine in care and maintenance, and when they bring it back into production they’ll be doing far over the 100,000 ounces per annum threshold.

•—–> On March 22, 2016 at 10:01 am,
Excelsior says:

There’s no doubt Jaguar Mining had a rough time the last few years, but I’m seeing them make steady improvement quarter after quarter, and to my eyes they are starting to turn things around in a positive direction, and are set up for improving cash flow, paying down debt, and when/if Gold prices rise, they should have a large leverage to the upside.

Q4 2015 Highlights
{highlights}
__________________________________________________________________________

Jaguar Mining Corporate Presentation – March 2016
{slideshow presentation}

—-> • On March 22, 2016 at 10:39 am,
Excelsior says:

******* Yes they went into credit protection for years, and just came out of it recently but retained their 3 mining complexes, and other development & exploration properties.

I remember when Jaguar was one of the favorites on Kitco and was trading at $6 versus $.22 today. Most investors forgot about them, but I’m bringing it to investors attention here on KER because I believe they’ll get re-rated in 2016.

Jaguar Mining produced 90,421 ounces of gold in 2015, from only 2 of their 3 mining complexes (the Turmalina mine and processing center and Caete complex with 2 mines and processing plant) Their 3rd major center (Paciencia) is on care and maintenance waiting for higher metals prices. [see page 3 of Corporate
Presentation above].

When Gold and base metals rise a little more, that 3 asset will go back into production again and they’ll clear well over 100,000 ounces of gold annually.
Now if you look at page 7 on the Corporate Presentation above something really jumped out at me for the 2016 guidance comparison amongst their peers:

2016 Guidance (note the market cap of Jaguar compared to their peers)

Wesdome production 56,000 (market cap 202 million)
Timmins Gold production 80,000 (market cap 108 million)
Jaguar Mining production 93,000 (market cap 22 million)
Richmont Mines production 98,000 (market cap 415 million)
Troy Resources production 110,000 (market cap 126 million).

* Marty, I just don’t think Jaguar is on most investors radar but they are producing more gold than most of the smaller producers that only produce 30,000 -100,000 per year, but they don’t get the headlines or the coverage (YET).

Jaguar is back to being considered a Jr company, but in the past they were really a Mid-Tier producer with 4 mines, 3 mining complexes, 2 processing centers, the development stage Gurupi project, and some other exploration properties that can kick up production in a big way once Paciencia goes back on line. As a result I think they could blow right out of this category and back to mid-tier status by 2017.

They are like a Major league player that had 2-3 rough seasons and got sent back down to the Minor League to work it out. Many companies would die a slow death, but in this case they are ramping up again and I believe they’ll catch most of the market off guard.

Simply sharing a potential turn-around story on a sleeper producer that people left for dead a few years back. Surprise! I believe Jaguar could get up over $1 a share in 2017 and be a 5 bagger in less than 12 months. (not investment advice, just my opinion)

•—–> On March 23, 2016 at 8:27 pm,
Excelsior says:

Sure, there are other exciting Mid-Tiers (I’m drawing the line in the sand of companies doing more than 100,000 ounces of gold equivalent in production and typically 2 or more mines) and I am counting Richmont Mines and Jaguar Mining as part of the mid-tier group because while they both have guidance in the 93-98K range, they both could easily be over the 100,000 K threshold in an upside surprise or moving into 2017 if you measured from mid-year 2016 to mid-year 2017 in production.

•—-> On March 24, 2016 at 7:06 am,
Excelsior says:

Absolutely Chad, I’ve written about Jaguar Mining quite often lately and did mention it up above before I posted the list:

“….I am counting Richmont Mines and Jaguar Mining as part of the mid-tier group because while they both have guidance in the 93-98K range, they both could easily be over the 100,000 K threshold in an upside surprise or moving into 2017 if you measured from mid-year 2016 to mid-year 2017 in production.”

I own the US ticker JAGGF and agree they are going to be one heck of a turnaround story and I posted some information updates on them on Tuesday:

•—–> On March 22, 2016 at 9:55 am,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Mining Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Operating and Financial Results, Significantly Lower Costs, Positive Operating Cash Flow
March 22, 2016

•—–> On March 24, 2016 at 11:30 am,
Excelsior says:

Yes – for me Jaguar Mining is a turnaround story but they are definitely going to get re-rated, so I’m hanging onto it at least until we see them valued closer to their peers in market cap. This may take 6 months or a year, but since people are interested in the miners again, some of these companies that restructured and came out of credit protection with their assets (like Jaguar, Aurcana, Nicola Mining, and Paladin) represent real value and all 4 companies have mines on care and maintenance and can ramp up with the rising prices. Alexco is in a similar boat, but they never went into balance sheet restructuring like the other 4 companies mentioned.

Most investors are probably not aware of just how much Gold Jaguar is producing and that they’ve righted the ship so to speak. When they do…..look out!

•—-> On March 28, 2016 at 3:57 pm,
Excelsior says:

Also, I really love companies coming out of credit restructuring that retain their assets and have a huge chance for a market surprise to the upside like Aurcana, Nicola Mining, Paladin, or Jaguar Mining mentioned below.

That’s part of being early to the party as a contrarian when there is real value there.

•——> On March 28, 2016 at 3:36 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar has actually been performing very well lately, is on track to produce 93,000 ounces of gold in 2016, and is probably one of the best turn-around stories in the Gold mining space in my opinion, so I’d say “shareholders are gaining hope” based on their results and share price volume increases lately.

Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAGGF)
0.2240 Up 0.0041(1.86%) 3:41PM EDT

March 23, 2016
Jaguar Mining Expands Land Position; Strategic Mineral Tenure Staking Increases Concession Block By 79% At Pilar Gold Mine, Brazil

•——> On March 28, 2016 at 3:38 pm,
Excelsior says:

Here is the March Corporate Presentation for Jaguar Mining:

•——> On March 28, 2016 at 3:41 pm,
Excelsior says:

Again, I recommend investors note the Market Cap disparity on Pg 7 of the corporate presentation above between Jaguar’s peers (Wesdome, Timmins, Richmont, & Troy).

This is a stock that is going to get re-rated in 2016 and moving into 2017.

*—-> On April 16, 2016 at 2:03 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar mining has had a great run. I’ve posted on very consistently on KER about them (38 times) over the last year, and already have double bagger at 214%.
There is still so much room to run…… Yee Haw!!!

*—-> On April 17, 2016 at 3:08 pm,
Excelsior says:

Hi Matthew. No I agree, that is why I’ve been writing about Jaguar Mining for over a year as one of the best turn around stories nobody has been talking about. Like I said above, there is still so much room to run. They haven’t even taken their third mining complex off care and maintenance yet, and when they do – look out! as this thing will spike up sharply after that. Also their Gurupi Project in Brazil looks very interesting as another development project. They have a ton of exploration upside as well. I’m a huge fan like I’ve been saying since last April

*—-> On April 20, 2016 at 3:40 pm,
Excelsior says:

The other smaller producer I’ve been putting a little money into for over a year now has been Jaguar Mining. I still feel they are ridiculously undervalued compared to their peers.

*—-> On April 22, 2016 at 11:21 am,
Excelsior says:

Hi Matthew – Yes, I’ve been watching Jaguar Mining and it has just traded sideways and I still haven’t taken any action on my position. I’m concerned that there may be some more short term harm to many PM stocks, but I’ve been trimming my Silver stocks this week and just trimmed a little off Perseus Mining instead of JAG since it’s had a nice move up as well.

*—-> On April 23, 2016 at 9:28 am,
Excelsior says:

Just looping back around to our previous discussion on the companies that had financially restructured and yet still have good assets and were very undervalued, all of them (Jaguar Mining, Aurcana, Nicola Mining, and Paladin) have started to move in a positive direction. Yes, if we get a strengthening dollar and metals sell off in the short term, they may dip, but there’s been enough confirmation in these lately that longer term……. It’s gonna be a really big show.

*—-> On April 23, 2016 at 9:30 am,
Excelsior says:

As for the gold stock – if you are talking about Jaguar Mining, hold on buddy. It may pullback in the short term, but longer term it has MUCH further to run…..

*——> On April 24, 2016 at 11:27 am,
Excelsior says:

Yes I’ve been adding to Jaguar and Aurcana for over a year, and was merely averaging down in a major way in both over the last few months. Just like like Nicola Mining and Paladin. I like the investing set up when a company is on the right track, but then they make a series of bad decisions that causes their share prices to tank, and over the last few years as commodities and metals prices tanked out, it meant these companies going through a financial restructuring, angry investors demand changes at the top, and the thus positive changes are made to the management and company initiatives. That is what happened to all 4 of them.
In addition, even companies with good management and good projects can have trouble with their percentages of ore recovery or processing & milling and with the very low metals prices have had to put mines on care and maintenance. This is what has happened with all 4 of those companies above, they all have mines & processing centers on care and maintenance waiting for higher metals prices and the recovery in prices have put them back in focus for those that are paying attention.

Other companies with mines on care an maintenance, that have been tweaking their systems, processes, and costs are Alexco, Luna Gold, and Bakerville Gold. I believe they will represent an exponential move in share prices as the metals prices rise and their mines are put back into production.

*—-> On April 24, 2016 at 3:13 pm,
Excelsior says:

Out of the ones you mentioned I also hold positions in Scorpio Gold, Jaguar Mining, and Dolly Varden Silver.

*—-> On April 29, 2016 at 10:21 pm,
Excelsior says:

Also it is why I like Perseus, Scorpio Gold, and Jaguar mining – they are bit higher on the costs, but as metals prices rise, their revenues will jump in a big way.

*—-> On May 13, 2016 at 1:34 pm,
Excelsior says:

Here is another gem of a Turn-around story that is still flying under the radar of most Gold investors = Jaguar Mining.

They have been through 5 years of hell, hit rock bottom, restructured, came out of credit protection with 3 producing mines at 2 big mining complexes, and a 4th mine at a 3rd mining complex on care and maintenance awaiting higher metals to restart. They have made great strides in reducing their costs and getting more and more lean and finally got things under the costs of spot gold the last few quarters.

This is why I’m looking to buy the Gold or polymetallic producers, that are the “best of the worst” as Matthew and I have discussed on here before. Perseus Mining is another one that has higher cash costs, but has been lowering them like crazy, just acquired Amarna, and will be starting their next mine into production later this year or in early 2017.

Anyhoo…….here is some recent info on Jaguar Mining showing their improvements in cost and efficiency, and when the marketplace realizes this and they start benefiting from rising metals prices, then watch out as this stock could kick it in gear.
_________________________________________________________________________
Jaguar Reports First Quarter Financial Results, Company Positioning for Strong Production and Growth; Increased Operating Cash Flow, Cash Operating Costs of $742 and AISC of $1,061 in Q1 2016
Toronto, Canada, May 10, 2016 – Jaguar Mining Inc. (“Jaguar” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: JAG) today announced operational and financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2016.
{press release}

*—–> On May 15, 2016 at 3:21 pm,
Excelsior says:

Yes, I was getting a bit nervous when it turned down, but was happy to see it bounce up nicely off support. Thanks for the JAG chart Matthew.

*—-> On June 8, 2016 at 9:49 am,
Excelsior says:

Yes, I noticed it was only based on producers, but there were even a number of producers not on there (Mandalay, Sierra Metals, Guyana Goldfields, St Barbara, Golden Queen, Troy Resources, Jaguar, Scorpio Gold, Beadell, Regis, Resolute, Alkane Resources, Centerra, Ramelius, Northern Star…etc). Regardless, it is still a pretty good summary of how the main PM producers fared for 2016.

*—-> On June 17, 2016 at 5:41 pm,
Excelsior says:

Yes, I’ve been happy with the action in Jaguar Mining lately. The real action and re-rating of this stock is just starting, with much more room to run to catch up to it’s peers.

*—-> On June 29, 2016 at 8:38 am,
Excelsior says:

Very nice. Yes, I’ve been happy at the progress Jaguar Mining continues to make. When the rest of the marketplace does a little homework and pulls up charts back to 2011, they’ll realize what a fall from grace JAG has had, and what an insanely bullish turnaround story this is going to be. They still have the 3 mining complex (4th actual mine) sitting on care and maintenance that I anticipate will be coming on line by early next year. Then they have a large Development stage project, and 2 other Exploration projects, beyond all the upside around their existing mines.

I’m in Jaguar Mining for a 10+ bagger, and feel it has the assets and low current valuation to pull that off over the next 2 years.

Check out the epic fall from grace, and the recent turnaround after they came out of restructuring. Also note the much higher volume spikes into the rising share price and the ADX turning up in a positive way the last few months. Good stuff!

{chart}

*—> On June 29, 2016 at 9:12 am,
Excelsior says:

Yes, good point as those debenture notes get converted. It may get a bit sloshy, but I welcome the increased volume and focus on Jaguar as things develop.

*—-> On June 29, 2016 at 10:48 pm,
Excelsior says:

I’ve been using the analogy for Jaguar that they are like a Major League ball player that got into a bad rut, and got sent down to the Minor League to work it out and sink or sail. It looks like they have decided to sail, got their act together, and they are graduating back up to the big board….. going from the Minor league (or Miner league) to the Majors. Well done.
__________________________________________________________________________
Jaguar Mining Receives Conditional Approval to List Shares and Debentures on TSX
Toronto, Canada, June 29, 2016

“Jaguar Mining Inc. (TSX-V: JAG), is pleased to announce it has received conditional approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to graduate from the TSX Venture Exchange and list its common shares and its 12.00% convertible senior secured debentures on the TSX.”

Rodney Lamond, President and Chief Executive Officer of Jaguar commented, “Graduating to the TSX is an important step in the evolution of Jaguar that provides more visibility and a broader base of retail and institutional shareholders.”

*—-> On June 29, 2016 at 9:44 pm,
Excelsior says:

I purchased the majority of my shares between $.15-$.23, but have trimmed on rips and added on dips for over a year, so ironically my cost basis is actually just a little over $.07. Longer term, today’s range of $30.35 is still great value for Jaguar Mining.

Based on the quality of their assets, their production profile and cost reductions, the extra mine they could bring on that is built&permitted, their large development project, 2 other exploration targets, and rising metals prices I believe a 2-3 year target of $2-$3 is very reasonable.

The one caveat will be that if a larger company comes along and buys them (which could always happen), then it may rob investors of the 10 bagger (like what happened with Claude, Lake Shore Gold, True Gold, Silvercrest, and possibly what could have happened with Gryphon Minerals or Mines Management if they had not been taken out near the bottom of the multi-year bear market). If all of those companies had stayed separate over the next 2-3 years, then many of them would have ended up being 10 baggers.

*—–> On June 29, 2016 at 9:55 pm,
Excelsior says:

It is quite conceivable that one can go out and buy a stock like JAG now, and then the metals could suddenly correct back down a month later, where the stock could fall back by 1/3 or maybe even in 1/2. As disheartening as that is when that happens (and I’ve sure had it happen to me over the years), those are also the times to hold your nose and add to the position from a much lower level, and average down once or twice if you truly believe in the fundamentals and technical of the company longer term. Then if the stock jumps back up, and you feel over-allocated, then trim some back. I usually fade into and out of positions to limit risk, and rarely go all into a position at one time.

*—-> On July 5, 2016 at 10:12 am,
Excelsior says:

Maybe the marketplace is starting to follow up on these turnaround stories like Aurcana, Jaguar Mining, Alexco, Nicola Mining, Aureus, and Luna Gold. I love getting in these sleeper stocks early when everyone has left them for dead, but forgets about the real value tied up in their assets. When the marketplace finally does evaluate their idled projects, permits in place, and infrastructure on site, then their share prices can jump substantially on that “Ah Ha” moment.

*—> On July 5, 2016 at 10:47 am,
Excelsior says:

I expect many will pop substantially when they announce they are going back into production. In Alexco’s case they also have the environmental business, Jaguar has operating mines – but still has the 3rd mining complex on standby, and Nicola Mining just starting tolling ore from other mines, but still has it’s mine on standby. Luna Gold and Aurcana were producing from their mines, but put them on care and maintenance when metal prices dropped…..but now that metals prices are creeping higher…… (as far as the restarts it’s not a question of “If?”; it’s a question of When?)

*—-> On July 5, 2016 at 10:40 am,
Excelsior says:

Here’s a 6 month Chart showing some of the “Turn-Around” miners with projects on care and maintenance, that have restructured or lowered their costs, and have a bright future ahead of them (and the marketplace is starting to wake up to this fact).

Aurcana, Luna Gold, Jaguar Mining, Alexco, Nicola Mining
{chart}

*—-> On July 5, 2016 at 12:53 pm,
Excelsior says:

Another nice day for Jaguar Mining…..up 22%
Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAGGF)
0.4280 Up 0.0780(22.29%) 3:36PM ED

*—> On July 11, 2016 at 3:46 pm,
Excelsior says:

Sticking with the theme I mentioned last year on Jaguar Mining (JAG.V) (JAGGF) –
I compared them to a Major league ball player, that ran into some issues and was sent down to the Minors to work things out. It is at this point that players either sink or sail, and Jaguar Mining has got it’s act together now, restructured, brought down it costs, has a nice pipeline of projects building into 2017 and 2018, and it looks like it is going back to the big board again, and will be a Major league player once again.

When they came out of credit protection with all their mines and exploration projects, I knew they’d be just fine longer term. This is why I started acquiring shares over a year ago at roughly 1/3 of the current pricing, and have posted on their success regularly. There is still so much further for this company to grow to return back to it’s former glory (used to be a $6 stock at the top of the market). They still have their 3rd mining complex (and 4th mine) on standby, a great development stage project, and 2 other prospective exploration targets, above and beyond the obvious upside exploration targets around their existing mines. When the metals prices rise another 10-20% I could see this stock starting move up many multiples over where it is currently and it should have a fantastic bull run over the next few years. (providing another Major or Mid-Tier don’t buy them out early…. but if that happens, it will be a nice pop in share price and there are always other undervalued opportunities).

It has been fun to watch JAG climb this year, and there is still a long run of successes to follow with this company moving forward. Going to the big board will at least put them back on the map with the larger investing universe.
Ever Upward!

*—> On July 13, 2016 at 3:32 am,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Reports Strong Second Quarter Production of 24,222 Ounces of Gold
TORONTO, July 12, 2016

*—-> On July 21, 2016 at 9:15 am,
Excelsior says:

As for Aurcana and Jaguar (I do hold both currently), but I had trimmed back my position in Aurcana, anticipating a pullback in most silver miners. My position in Jaguar is way up, so I’m just riding through any pullback in metals, and am focused on the mid-long term.

*—–> On July 27, 2016 at 2:54 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Reports Strong Second Quarter Production of 24,222 Ounces of Gold
Second Quarter 2016 Production Highlights:
– Consolidated gold production for Q2 2016 increased 17% to 24,222 ounces year-over-year and is on track to achieve 2016 full year guidance of 90,000 to 95,000 ounces of gold production.
– Average consolidated mill head grade increased 10% to 3.76 g/t year-over-year.
– Turmalina Q2 2016 gold production increased 45% to 15,083 ounces at an average head grade of 4.10 g/t, up 5% year-over-year.
– Primary development investment increased 95% year-over-year to 1,857 metres completed in Q2 2016.
– Total definition, infill, and exploration drilling of 9,219 metres completed during Q2 2016 focused on key targets at Turmalina and Caeté. A total of 21,111 metres of drilling has occurred in the first half of 2016.
– To support future growth, the Company remains committed to completing its 2016 capital investment program, which includes investing in development and exploration activities, a newly designed paste-fill plant, the rebuild of Mill #3 at Turmalina, and the upgrading of the Caeté tailings capacity.
– Cash balance of $17.5 million as at June 30, 2016, after capital investment programs and payments on debt facility and convertible debentures interest.

*—–> On July 27, 2016 at 4:00 pm,
Excelsior says:

Eric Sprott Announces Acquisition of Shares of Jaguar Mining Inc.
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – June 28, 2016)

• *—> On July 27, 2016 at 4:06 pm,
Excelsior says:

Throughout 2014, 2015, and 2016, most of the management and Directors have been switched out, so the problem children were removed and the new team has it’s act together.

New team – new dream – well-oiled machine……

May 12, 2014 Jaguar Mining Announces Change in Directors
August 27, 2014 Jaguar Mining Appoints COO and VP, Gurupi Project Development
October 29, 2015 Jaguar Mining Announces Changes to the Board of Directors
December 16, 2015 Jaguar Mining Inc. Announces New Chief Executive Officer And Provides Update On Strategic Review Process
February 19, 2016 Jaguar Mining Announces Senior Management Changes
April 01, 2016 Jaguar Announces Appointment of New Director Thomas Weng
June 24, 2016 Jaguar Announces Changes to the Board of Directors and Management

• *—> On July 27, 2016 at 4:16 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar has new experienced leadership from Crocodile Gold (during the merger into Newmarket Gold), Barrick, and Anglogold Ashanti.
– Rodney Lamond – Position: Director & Position: Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Lamond is a Professional Mining Engineer who brings more than 25 years of mining experience to the Board of Jaguar Mining and has held senior management positions overseeing or stationed at operations in Peru, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, USA, Canada and Australia. From 2013 to 2015, Mr. Lamond was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Crocodile Gold Corp before the July 2015 business combination of Crocodile Gold Corp and Newmarket Gold Ltd.
– Hashim Ahmed – Position: Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Ahmed joined Jaguar in August 2014, after working at Barrick Gold Corporation for over 7 years, where he held progressively senior positions in corporate finance functions, and held leadership roles at site operational finance.
– Jean-Marc Lopez – Position: Vice President, Geology & Exploration
Mr. Lopez is a Professional Geologic Engineer with over 29 years of experience in Mining Geology and Exploration. Mr. Lopez has played major roles in the exploration, development and the production of precious metals deposits and mines all over North and South America (Canada, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Guyana, Surinam, French Guiana and Brazil). While serving Cambior Inc. and Anglogold Ashanti, he has strongly contributed to successfully bring several world-class gold deposits from the greenfield exploration stage to development.

*—> On July 27, 2016 at 1:41 pm,
Excelsior says:

Matthew – sending you a Jaguar Mining high-five!

Jaguar Mining Inc (JAGGF)
$0.46 +$0.07 – up (16.71%)
Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG.V)
0.600.08 (15.38%)

• *—> On July 27, 2016 at 1:44 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Mining was up 5 times the average volume on the OTC and 3 times the average volume on the TSXV. A nice move comming after comments from “Ole Yeller…”

• *—- > On July 29, 2016 at 4:10 pm,
Excelsior says:

[in response to press release that Matthew posted regarding JAG’s approval to graduate to the TSX]

Pomp and Circumstance Graduation Walking March
(Song Extended)

*—-> On July 29, 2016 at 1:19 pm,
Excelsior says:

DFS – Yes Crocodile gold to Newmarket was a great transition. That is why I feel pretty good about the CEO from Crocodile from 2013-2015 during that transition being at the helm of Jaguar Mining now.

*—-> On July 29, 2016 at 4:51 pm,
Excelsior says:

There were probably more stocks that were up higher during the day, like Jaguar was up over 15% earlier, but I was just looking at the closing prices today, on the last day of the week, and last trading day of the month. A significant finishing line…..

*—> On August 4, 2016 at 7:26 am,
Excelsior says:

This is what I did with Americas Silver Corp when they were Scorpio Silver/ US Silver & Gold and few were following them at the end of 2015 & early 2016. It was also the same strategy with Jaguar Mining, Aurcana, Nicola mining, Eurasian Minerals, and Ivanhoe Mine, etc…. for 2015 & 2016 and they have just recently taken off.

*—-> On August 6, 2016 at 3:13 pm,
Excelsior says:

2) I also believe Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAGGF) is a better value proposition than Brazil Resources (BRIZF),and have been mentioning it over over a year one of the best turn around stories out there (like Aurcana and Nicola Mining). I owned Jaguar (JAG) at the peak of Gold mining boom from 2010-2012, so I’ve been watching their operations for a while now. I started acquiring shares gradually in it during late 2015 and then kept acquiring shares into early 2016, once they came out of credit protection with all their assets and then restructured.

*—> On August 9, 2016 at 2:36 pm,
Excelsior says:

(JAG) (JAGGF) Jaguar Announces Q2 Financial Results; Achieves Strong Q2 2016 Gold Production and Development Success
TORONTO, Aug. 9, 2016
{press release}

Eric Sprott Announces Acquisition of Shares of Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG) (JAGGF)
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – Aug. 19, 2016) –

Eric Sprott announces that on August 19, 2016, he acquired 46,978,350 common shares of Jaguar Mining Inc. (representing approximately 27.3% of the outstanding shares).
{press release}

*—-> On August 25, 2016 at 1:41 pm,
Excelsior says:

I’ve already trimmed into a free ride a while ago, so I’m just holding on for the ride at this point. If we did get a corrective leg down, then I may add to the position, but I’ve been pretty happy with JAG, their graduation to the big board, and Sprott’s increasing position in the company.

*—->On September 4, 2016 at 11:05 am,
Excelsior says:

Lastly there is the group of companies with very few to no newsletter writers, they aren’t in ETFs, and they may not have the “high profile” strategic investors, but regardless they have good projects where small or “unknown” investment firms, or other mining companies, or even retail investors, that invest in them and can cause them to outperform their peers. Eventually, these companies will get on the radar of the investing public and then the share prices compounds multiple-fold when it hits it’s stride. Case in point on these at the end of 2015 or early 2016 would have been Arizona Mining, Jaguar Mining, Americas Silver Corp, Nicola Mining, Aurcana, Silvercorp, Hochschild, Dolly Varden, Defiance Silver, Roxgold, Scorpio Gold, Mexus Gold, etc….. Now many of those companies are getting picked up newsletter writers, investment sites, and ETFs have added or increased their weighting. So the strategy here is to get in front of the trend before the gurus and big boys do, but this is the riskiest group, as they may never take off or worse, go bankrupt. It’s definitely a risk/reward strategy, and is typically based more on the fundamental backdrop and news releases due to the very low liquidity and sporadic trading.

*—-> On September 10, 2016 at 7:27 pm,
Excelsior says:

With Jaguar Mining I had owned it in the last cycle from 2010- 2012. I won big and lost big for a wash on it and it was one of my few pain points from when the bear market struck at the end of 2011. So I watched for it to come out of credit protection and that they retained their assets. It seemed like it may be worth a second chance and I was writing about their turn around since last year. Even though others had left them for dead, I saw the potential. When Eric Sprott invested in it this year, the belief felt a bit more vindicated.

*—-> On September 22, 2016 at 12:42 pm,
Excelsior says:

Great point Matthew. Many of the big winners I’ve had last year and this year were not covered on Kitco or in the ETFs.

Yes, when we were discussing the changes in Claude in 2013 and 2014 – I don’t remember anyone else covering them. Eventually in 2015 people caught on long after the easy money was made.

When were were discussing Jaguar mining, Aurcana, Nicola Mining, Scorpio Silver (now Americas Silver) and Scorpio Gold, Wildcat Silver (now Arizona Mining), Alexco, and Avino at the end of 2015 and early 2016 hardly anyone was discussing them.

Ryan and I were talking about Mexus gold on here earlier in the year before it went up over 2000% this year (guess what, in addition to our reviews, it was on the Development stage lists and anyone else could have checked into and bought in on their own).

*—-> On September 22, 2016 at 2:15 pm,
Excelsior says:

The point was, often it is when the masses are not following a company that has all the right ingredients and positive progress that there is a re-rating in a stock that will come. The goal should be to keep finding those opportunities and get in position before it gets rerated. Jaguar, Nicola Mining, and Mexus are just more examples, along with the other mentioned up above.

Let’s go find more of them

*—–> On September 26, 2016 at 5:54 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Mining Intercepts High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Pilar Gold Mine
Drill Results Gold Brazil
TORONTO, Sept. 26, 2016

Drilling Highlights and Key Intercepts

Underground definition drilling on the Pilar BFII ore body has returned significant high-grade mineralization. Key intercepts include:
Hole FSB552A – 17.40 g/t Au over 6.80 m (6.46 m ETW1);
Hole PPL325 – 7.73 g/t Au over 16.35 m (15.52 m ETW1);
Hole PPL326 – 24.19 g/t Au over 5.65 m (4.46 m ETW1);
Hole PPL363 – 23.95 g/t Au over 4.00 m (3.35 m ETW1); and
Hole PPL340 – 9.05 g/t Au over 7.90 m (6.24 m ETW1)

“Rodney Lamond, President and Chief Executive Officer of Jaguar, stated: “Today’s reported high-grade intercepts continue to confirm a strong mineralized system down-plunge of current Mineral Reserves at Pilar, in particular the high-grade intercepts related to the newly discovered BFII ore body. These results provide excellent potential for higher grades, the increase of Mineral Resources, and the conversion to reserves for mining at Pilar. Additionally, we have been very pleased with our operations at Pilar where our average grade has steadily increased and we are on track to achieve our production guidance for 2016.”

{press release}

*—-> On October 4, 2016 at 3:34 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar Signs Earn-In Agreement to Sell Gurupi Project to Avanco Resources
TSX: JAG
TORONTO, Oct. 4, 2016
{press release}

*—–> On October 4, 2016 at 3:40 pm,
Excelsior says:

#GOLD #DEVELOPMENT $JAG $JAGGF Jaguar Mining Inc.

“The Agreement provides Avanco with the right to earn 20% of Jaguar’s interest in the Project by paying to Jaguar an aggregate cash fee of US$1.7 million plus an additional fee of US$500,000 in cash or shares of Avanco, and by expending a minimum of US$300,000 on permitting and access in respect of the Project. Avanco will earn an additional 31% interest in Gurupi upon the publication of a JORC compliant reserve estimate in excess of 500,000 ounces, and will earn a further 29% interest in Gurupi upon demonstration of adequate funding coupled with the start of construction of a process plant with capacity in excess of 50,000 ounces per year.”

• *—-> On October 4, 2016 at 6:24 pm,
Excelsior says:

Jaguar will likely get re-rated in a major way over the next year or so. $JAG has 4 mines (Turmalina, Pilar, Roca Grande, and Paciencia) in 3 complexes, along with the Gurupi development project, and the Pedra Branca exploration project.

• 2016 production guidance: 90,000-95,000 oz
• 2015 production of 90,421 oz Au in the most active mining state in Brazil.
• 2.7 Moz Au Proven & Probable Reserves (includes Gurupi)
• 4.6 Moz Au Measured & Indicated Resources (includes Gurupi)
• Mar-2016 Pilar Gold Mine (Caeté Gold Complex) increased
Reserves 310% to 172,000 oz, grade 63% to 4.39

They just had some great discovery results at the Pilar Gold mine released last week:

Jaguar Intercepts High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Pilar Gold Mine; Strong Potential to Convert Additional Mineral Resources and Reserves
Toronto, Canada, September 26, 2016
(Check out their site for the news release)

The AISC at Turmalina is $860, which is great, but at Caete (a combination of the Roca Grande Mine + Pilar Mine) it is $1,468 for a combined AISC of $1203 between both complexes. The work is really focused to bring down costs at Caete’ and the recent exploration work at Pilar is well on the way to do so. They also have their Paciencia mine and complex on care and maintenance waiting for higher metal prices, but all infrastructure is in place and they can restart things rather quickly there.
_______________________________________________________________________
Jaguar Mining Corporate Presentation from September:
{Corporate Presention}

*——> On October 6, 2016 at 2:58 pm,
Excelsior says:

I have a nice free ride position in Jaguar, but have considered buying more and raising my cost basis to just very low because I see it getting re-rated substantially.

*—–> On October 7, 2016 at 10:48 am,
Excelsior says:

Well as you know I own Jaguar (and have been writing about it on here since 2015 as one of the better turn-around stories in the Small Gold producers category), and I don’t own and have never owned any Brazil Resources.

However since you brought it up I concur that Brazil resources has been over-valued and Jaguar is still very undervalued compared to other producers in their peer group.

• *—–> On October 7, 2016 at 12:31 pm,
Excelsior says:

Absolutely. I’m in 100% agreement. Again, I’ve been saying since last year that this stock needs a major re-rating and was thrown out with the bathwater and forgotten.

I posted a blurb about Jaguar on Friday (today’s) Rick Ackerman that I had just sent over to another poster on CEO earlier in the week. It’s a nice encapsulation of the JAG Story…..

• *——> On October 7, 2016 at 12:36 pm,
Excelsior says:

I bought my first shares of JAG in 2010 and won big then lost big in late 2011/2012. It left a mark on me as one of the few stocks I got burn on holding into the selloff in 2011-2012. After that I watched it sink into oblivion, then go into credit protection, and I waited….and waited….. and waited…. for it come out and was so glad they kept all their assets.

At that point I wanted to see what kind of reaction there was…..and there wasn’t any….. I just flat-lined. I started adding in a little here and there, but didn’t get serious about the position until the end of 2015 and Jan-Feb of this year. I’m about as bullish as one can be on JAG and was have been sounding the trumpets for quite some time on this company.

*—–> On October 7, 2016 at 11:13 am,
Excelsior says:

[concerning a bullish JAG chart Matthew had posted]

Yep looks like a bullish pennant pattern about to break out to the upside. Where is Morriss Hubbartt at time like these to narrate? 🙂

—> On October 7, 2016 at 11:42 am,
Excelsior says:

Speaking of Jaguar Mining – earlier this week I had a long winded response to a guy on CEO recently regard JAG and figured I’d post it here as part of this thread for investors that follow Jaguar.

A poster had asked me how Jaguar stacked up to Helio Resource group, because they saw the news release about the JV on their Gurupi project and must have thought that was their primary flagship property. Anyway I did my best to encapsulate the JAG story here in my response:
________________________________________________________________________

@Excelsior – “@bullionaire – It is difficult to compare $HRC Helio Resource Group #exploration to $JAG $JAGGF Jaguar Mining #production [apples and oranges].
Even though they are currently trading like a penny stock, Jaguar is a previous Mid-tier miner (that was trading at $6), that crashed and burned in the last cycle when the #GOLD prices collapsed. They were forgotten, but have restructured, retained all their mines & projects and are starting to be remembered once again. Jaguar will likely get re-rated in a major way over the next year or so. $JAG has 4 mines (Turmalina, Pilar, Roca Grande, and Paciencia) in 3 complexes, along with the Gurupi development project, and the Pedra Branca exploration project.

• 2016 production guidance: 90,000-95,000 oz
• 2015 production of 90,421 oz Au in the most active mining state in Brazil.
• 2.7 Moz Au Proven & Probable Reserves (includes Gurupi)
• 4.6 Moz Au Measured & Indicated Resources (includes Gurupi)
• Mar-2016 Pilar Gold Mine (Caeté Gold Complex) increased
Reserves 310% to 172,000 oz, grade 63% to 4.39

*They just had some great discovery results at the Pilar Gold mine released last week:

Jaguar Intercepts High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Pilar Gold Mine; Strong Potential to Convert Additional Mineral Resources and Reserves
Toronto, Canada, September 26, 2016
{press release}

The AISC at Turmalina is $860 but at Caete (Roca Grande Mine + Pilar Mine) it is $1,468 for a combined AISC of $1203. The work is really focused to bring down costs at Caete’ and the recent exploration work at Pilar is well on the way to do so. They also have their Paciencia mine and complex on care and maintenance waiting for higher metal prices, but all infrastructure is in place and they can restart things rather quickly there.

The Gurupi JV and earn-in announced today simply allows them to move that development project along while they focus on their primary mines.
from #hrc, 4 Oct 2016,

Jaguar has very inconsistent volume behavior.

A move in the general markets seems imminent:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01071462056&a=481196869

Other than what some charts seem to say, I would think any jolt in the markets will be delayed for another month.

So where are all he Chinese that the PUMPERS keep saying are buying all this gold?

We need you now