Is now a good time to be buying precious metals stocks?
Today with Rick Ackerman we address some comments and question that have been brewing for the past couple days. The comments have been focused on if now is a good time to be buying gold and silver stocks considering their recent drops. To address the question we take a look at the following ETFs.
- VanEck Gold Miners – GDX
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners – GDXJ
- Proshares Ultra Silver – AGQ
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
We also clear up some fundamental information on Cornerstone Capital Resources which we covered yesterday. We need to look to the news out of SolGold and understand that Cornerstone holds a 85% interest in its property in Ecuador. Click here for the news release regarding SolGold and BHP Billton.
Atlanta Fed slashes Q3 GDP to 1.9%, Half its Original estimate…zerohedge
Timberline Resources (TLRS/TBR) is up 18.42% on high volume this morning on no news and my portfolio of juniors is also up. This is a good sign considering the very real possibility that GDX/GDXJ could still fall another 10%.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLRS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p93588622406
Matthew,
“Newsletter writer” out w. another email again on Timberline.
This MIGHT explain that.
Best,
LPG
Thanks, LPG, that probably does explain it.
Silver Bear is up 12.18% today, but it is on their news (not due to a newsletter writer) ๐ฎ
Silver Bear Resources Inc (SVBRF)
$0.21 up + $0.0228 (12.18% gain)
________________________________________________________________________
Silver Bear Announces The Maiden Mineral Resource For The Sterzhnevoy And Porphirovy Deposits Within The Mangazeisky Silver Project
October 14, 2016
Re: Silver Bear.
OTC listing: SVBRF.
Avge volume (past 3mths), as per Yhoo fin: 28k shares traded per day
Canada listing: SBR.TO
Avge volume (per Interactive Broker): 574k shares traded per day (c. 20 times more than for the US OTC listing).
—> I think it’s “fair” to say the Canadian listing is the main driver/listing of the 2.
In Canada, the shares closed at 26cts yday.
At USDCAD FX of c.1.3192 at the close yday, this implied a “theoritical” US listing closing price of 19.7cts. Yhoo Fin indicates that US OTC closed at 19cts.
So just based on that, the US listing had a c. 4% catch up to do – everything else equal.
*********
Today, at 1hr before the close:
** US listing is up 12% on 18k shares traded.. ie less than US$4k worth of trading.
** Canadian listing has traded 120k shares, and fwiw, stock if DOWN 1tick at 25.5cts.
==> seems the main listing sees things a tad differently.
My 2 cts.
LPG
Yes – Thanks LPG. It is very fair that often there is an arbitrage from OTC from Canadian or Australian ticker which can be a factor at times. That is the ticker I own, so I judge price movement on there for my trading purposes. So if it had 4% arbitrage to catch up to the larger Canadian listing, then it would really be like being up 8% in nominal terms on the OTC today when the new resource was announced. Good point!
Speaking of interesting arbitrage trades between the OTC and Canadian ticker – Aura Minerals had an interesting case of “catch-up” so far today:
Aura Minerals Inc (ARMZF)
$0.1468 – up $0.0158 (12.06% gain)
Aura Minerals Inc. (ORA.TO)
$0.19 – $0.00 (0.00% flat)
Here’s another OTC versus Canadian arbitrage fill:
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd (MLNGF)
$0.4369 – up $0.0131 (3.09% gain)
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd. (MLN.V)
$0.56 down -$0.01 (-1.75% loss)
Here is a newsletter writer I do respect and his thoughts on Strategic Metals:
Past is present for Yukon Project Generator
by @JamesKwantes on October 13, 2016
https://www.ceo.ca/@jameskwantes/past-is-present-for-yukon-project-generator
This is an opinionated editorial, but there is useful data on a number of different companies and ETFs and good embedded charts. The main focus is on Guyana Goldfields and Teranga Gold though.
_________________________________________________________________________
2 Junior Gold Producers Ripe For Takeovers
Oct. 14, 2016 – Taylor DartFollow (2,561 followers)
Ascot drills one metre of 83.5 g/t gold at Premier
2016-10-14 09:07 ET – News Release
Mr. John Toffan reports
ASCOT RESOURCES INTERSECTS 83.50 G/T GOLD OVER 1.00 METRE AT PREMIER
Ascot Resources Ltd. has released the latest drill results from its Premier property in B.C.
The Premier property covers more than 100 square kilometres near the town of Stewart in northwest British Columbia, and includes the old Premier mine, a past producer of 2.1 million ounces of gold and 44.9 million ounces of silver.
Comments from “farmer” I wonder who that is.
Was really nice to read some insightful thinking again.
Obviously too bad we dont get it here anymore.
Lists and charts are nice of course but thats far from analysing the market situation.
A good read, thanks for linking it Cory.
Link more if you can?
If you don’t understand the valued of a targeted/sorted/ranked list or the value of charts, it is fine, but there is no doubt that they contain helpful analysis. If all you think some of us on KER do is post lists or charts, then clearly you miss 80% of the posts that are crammed with market commentary (which is more often accurate than some wacko posters that got rightfully blasted off the site).
Go back and read over the last few weeks on the KER and you’ll notice 2 things – tons of market commentary and minimal to zero drama. Ah…..breath that fresh air!
“breathe” that fresh air. (the no drama is a breath of fresh air was the other interpretation)
sorry ex, as Ive said before lists are of limited use to me.
I may have mentioned a time or two I seldom use charts.
We shall see if he is right concerning the correlation of plat to gold.
I think he is, actually a chart or two might show that.
I gotcha, but the point was that there is a ton of market commentary shared on here not just lists and charts.
As for platinum versus gold, PT being a leading indicator for gold is interesting, but they should be viewed independently and are keyed off of different factors. Gold is keyed off interest rates, the Yen, the dollar, and inflation. Platinum is keyed off industrial metals drivers of macro economic growth (CPI numbers), the auto markets, and technology & pollution/air purification news. One thing is for sure and that is that Platinums ratio to gold is very skewed at present and I expect it to close that gap over the next 6-12 months.
Nobody as insightful as the Bird, too bad you guys are so thin skinned.
Your hate stopped you from seeing info.
I knew trying to have a real discussion about Gold and Platinum with you was pointless.
“Nobody as insightful as the Bird” – (LMAO – thanks for the comic interlude)
He an interesting perspective, but thrived on negative attention, lied constantly, twisted peoples comments around, attacked posts, insulted, and instigated = TROLL
Instead of addressing any the points I made about your PT/Gold remarks, you conveniently dodged them to continue pining over a guy that did nothing but cause issues on here. It was the right thing to do to remove the cancer.
Sry, I wasnt trying to have discussion about how plat/gold are related, just stated we will see if he is right.
With his record of predicting drops I would think twice before betting against him.
Time for PMs will come, but it doesnt look quite there yet to me.
Re: “Your hate stopped you from seeing info.”
B, your lack of knowledge stopped you from detecting a bullshit artist. That’s a fact.
Tweety found a new cage….
Yeup.
What is ironically humorous is that if you go back and review my response to “b” up above it had NOTHING to do with Tweety. I was happy to skip over that BS and just address the info relative to investing. It is b that keeps continually bringing him back up through this entire blog today, and then he rattles on about his “1 comment.” Give me a break from the nonsense already….
Anyone with a pair of eyeballs can read up above that I simply remarked about the value of targted/sorted/ranked lists, the value of charts & technical analysis, and mentioned that if anyone actually reads these blogs (and challenged him to go back and read the last 2 weeks blogs) that they are packed with plenty of commentary (about 80%) is shared on the KER besides just lists & charts.
* Would “b” admit that there is way more content posted on the KER than just list & charts? No – he just pokes at the posters on here that actually put up something of value
** Did he go back and check the last 2 weeks blogs for a verification that there is tons of worthwhile market commentary posts in comparison to the lists or charts ? No, he didn’t. B just whines about lists (when he’s not throwing a temper tantrum on the blog and posting hundreds and hundreds of unsorted, unranked, unfiltered companies just to be a pain to everyone on here.
Anyway, b dodged an honest response back to him and decided to bring up bird’s point platinum leading gold. So I replied that while interesting both Platinum and Gold are apples and oranges and price in both is keyed off different drivers.
*** So did b respond to those Platinum and Gold comments (which were sent based on his own prior response)? No he went on say this: “Nobody as insightful as the Bird, too bad you guys are so thin skinned. Your hate stopped you from seeing info.”
???
Clearly B’s response did 3 things:
1) For the 3rd time he did not address the response back to him on the investing topic
2) It was B that keeps invoking bird (nobody else gives a rat’s butt what he thinks)
3) He made a personal attack and against us
So we’ve just established B really didn’t have any interest in a logical conversation or honest response back. After 3 different attempts to respond back about the market commentary on the KER, lists & charts, and the relationship of Platinum to Gold, that wasn’t want he wanted to talk about. We can all clearly see who he wanted to talk about and slug out a few insults in the process. The for the rest of this blog, he keeps bring up how great that troll was and claiming he made “1 comment” ??? Something not quite right there….. the word oblivious comes to mind.
…oh, and B, if you feel the need to respond to this with even more nonsense, please do yourself the favor of going back and reading this whole thread up above. I responded quite politely about market topics. It was YOU that kept bringing him up, and it was you that cast out the insults from out of nowhere.
Please make a note of that before you dig the hole any deeper.
You very angry. I angry too. Gold not good now. Everyone angry. You want fight? Come to Ukraine.
no anger here friend. the anger is coming from b. I simply responded to his posts discussing the markets, but instead he wants to continually tout a warped view of a troll that was removed.
That a public blog for you though….
Gold and silver look awful, dreadful.
Even on good days they look weak and sickly
jtl, you may have noticed before, Bird doesnt think much of goldbugs, its always a good time to buy.
He does trade it tho.
Rick says golds dangerous right now.
Not likely we would here that from a bug, more like, good time to btfd. lol
Whatever of course, its all good.
There are some fake rallies to suck people in before another big $30 to $50 fall.
This was an interesting article but it is 11 pages, and full of interesting commentary. There is also a Top 100 list on page 3 since I know some of you love lists ๐
Junior mine 2016
Signs of Life – PWC
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/mining/publications/223176_JuniorMineReport_final_web.pdf
Tiny Startups Revamp Gold Market After Besting Big Exchanges
Eddie Van Der Walt – October 13, 2016
The other point, a person doesnt NEED to take such risk.
Find one that pays big with a small(relitive to total investment cash) investment
What was my last one I explained, 3k at 1000% (I personally sold before it topped)is 10 times 30k, a 3x 30k was 90k.
90k on a 3k investment.
Small bet (relitive) big payoff.
low risk, reward outwieghs risk.
I just dont see the need for 100 stocks.
Useing 3k as Mats insignificant # to invest.
I don’t see the need for 100 stocks either. The point is to research them and boil it down to 1-2 dozen Gold & Silver companies of various subsectors (Mid-tier, Small producers, development stage, Prospect Generators, Exploration) and to manage the risk using fundamental data and technical analysis.
There were also Uranium, Lithium, and Base Metals companies on that list to follow up on and do research on, where one may have more shares in those outside of their PM holdings.
Lastly, there may be new readers on KER that haven’t developed their list of companies to do due diligence on and want more than just the Kitco list. They may appreciate having more companies to check out, but that probably escaped your narrow perspective of just your stocks.
I’m really not sure why it is so hard to grasp that there are many different types of investors on here focused on the resource sector. There are different kinds of lists that have huge value for comparative analysis or because they have been targeted or filtered with specific data:
Here are a few examples:
1) a list ranked by year-to-date performance or just the last 30 days — Seeing which horses won the endurance race is important, but seeing who has done well the last month in more bearish conditions can be even more revealing.
2) a List of holding/weightings inside an ETF — This gives investors new ideas of companies to follow up on, and shows you how the very smart analysts that manage the ETF place value by the companies they pick to include and importance or weighting they give it. This means a great deal of fundamental and technical research has already been done before that list get’s posted. (good grief why is that so hard to understand for a few special people?)
3) a List of companies with a specific focus on their assets or business model out of the universe of stock available. If someone can’t see the value of someone going out, checking corporate websites/press releases/drill results/corporate presentations to narrow down which ones have “Zinc” or “Uranium” exposure, or that are “Development stage Gold focused companies” or “Prospect Generators” etc….. then they truly are clueless. This takes a huge amount of time, fact checking, effort, and often long time periods to consolidate all that data. These lists don’t exist on the internet, but there are many partial or incomplete lists that don’t paint the full picture. One would think investors would be appreciative of being shown the full menu of options.
The point has NEVER been to invest in ALL of them. Just like on the Top 100 stock list featured in that article up above. NOBODY was saying to go buy them all or even to follow them all. That is sloppy logic and conjecture.
The point is to research them and boil it down to 1-2 dozen Gold & Silver companies of various subsectors (Mid-tier, Small producers, development stage, Prospect Generators, Exploration) and to manage the risk using fundamental data and technical analysis.
b, you don’t see the need for a hundred stocks.
You must not have much significant money to invest.
I have a problem, that when I place an order, that order can shift often shift a stock 10%.
That is a problem. I try to keep my orders below 10% of a stocks average daily volume, but buying on “down” days, which tend to be lower volume days in a bull market, sometimes means when I look at the end of the day, my volume was in fact as much as 30 or 40% of that stock’s trading volume.
I don’t know how many stocks I own exactly. I haven’t counted. But it’s much more than the number of fingers and toes you have.
cfs
significant money is relative.
Whats significant to me might not be to you, fair enough.
I mentioned awhile back, before the move in PMs, just buy the kitco list, if ya had the cash, which you may, and I was 100% correct, I did not have to research any of the companies on that list, anyone that bought it made nice% gains.
What I did was buy the one stock I knew would pay, and it did, as long as the liquidity covers my cash why would I need more stock picks?
I watch about a dozen stocks, when you watch closely enough you get to no when they will move.
I dont see how a person could watch 100 that close, but whatdoIno?
I dont really get the point of a top 100 list, to invest in 100 companies for significant profit would take what? millions?
Honustly, I have no idea, when you find one you like you buy to the max of liquidity, if ya have more cash than that buy the next best one.
Just how I go about it.
No way am I ever going to put enuff in the markets to play 100 stocks.
Its gambling, pure and simple.
Think about it, 5-10% phyzz, that your safest bet, why roll dice with 95-90%?
Im a gambler and there is more gamble in that than is sane.
To itch his own of course.
Remember, just having cash in a bank or broker is a gamble, and thats before you even place a bet.
A person only needs about 10 and follow them for timing.
Yep, you missed the point entirely.
Go back and see the response above. NOBODY was advising investing in or even following 100 companies. A detailed response was left for anyone here that may be appreciative of being shown the full menu, and the huge amount of useful data that can be found in a list for new investors looking for companies, or the veteran traders in mining companies. Their value & data should be pretty obvious to anyone, but apparently some here are still struggling with understanding the “why” behind some of the posts.
Most people take their biggest risks late in a bull market when they’re all nice comfy with their own brilliance. I take my biggest risks early when things are cheap. You can call that insane but it doesn’t make it so.
Ninety percent of the population finds the most important truths to be insane. That’s just food for thought.
Mat, I no you are amongst the few that buy early, I like to think Im one too.
About a month ago was the time for potshares, instead of just sitting in cash.
I was relitivly early.
Re: “Lists and charts are nice of course but thats far from analysing the market situation.”
Charts reflect all “market situations” but I agree that they are nice. ๐
Yes, “Farmer” is obviously your B buddy – BS-ing as usual.
+1
I guess you havnt noticed a correlation of plat to gold, we shall see I guess.
see the comments up above. The are apples and oranges, and the platinum gold ratio is very skewed at present based on the historical mean.
Platinum is expensive copper in terms of its price action. In the crash of 2008, it plunged as much as copper and performed worse than copper during the ensuing large bounce. Copper was able to make a marginal new high in 2011 while platinum never came close.
Both platinum and copper plunged twice as much as gold in the ’08 crash and only gold and silver went on to make MUCH higher highs. Platinum is not money and I think it is in the process of putting in a long term low versus gold but war could (not “will”) drag that process out a bit.
Copper Crashes To 1 Month Lows
Oct 13, 2016 – by Tyler Durden
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-13/copper-crashes-1-month-lows
Oh that’s right. You keep bringing up this platinum to gold discussion, but then when I address your comments up above, you really didn’t want to discuss it. Why keep bringing up then? (hero worship?)
So which one are you?
According this guy Cam the farmer
If you buy gold you are either
Retail buyer
A religious bit case
Blindly devoted.
Those are all your options folks according to the farmer
So which one are you?
I don’t fall into any of those categories.
Matthew where do you fit?
jtl,
I own phyzz, no need for more.
I try to buy when I figure a move is happening.
Last move was up 2600% none too shabby, just 1 stock, the one I thought was best to be into for the move. (pretty close if not 100% right)
no charts required, bugs the bugs maybe?
After that move I figured cash was the place to be, and saw what pot was doing, so instead of cash it was pot.
about 4-5 times my money while waiting for PMs again, a bunch of free shares too to let ride.
Bugs bought/are buying the dip I would imagine.
PMs time will come.
According to me, that Farmer is stuffed with manure and should be ignored. Plenty of big smart names that do not fall into any of those dumb categories like gold here.
Funny & spot on.
I made ONE comment, that bird made a good and insightful post concerning plat/gold and asked Cory to link again.
Look at the tirade from you guys that caused.
You could have simply let it pass but nope.
It is more than obvious who it is that causes the bs.
And would be to anyone else that read the thread.
But some people cant simply appreciate an opinion for what it is I guess.
Which you guys have shown multiple times.
Not a big deal, but that thinking detracts from the site imo.
Just an opinion, is that ok?
or are you guys going to continue to go on and on?
B – you’ve made multiple posts about birdy today, made incorrect statements, place a lot of blame on us, then refuse to deal with reality or a response back. I’m happy never to discuss bird again and if you haven’t notices (NOBODY has in the last few week). You’re the only one carrying the torch on this. It was a good decision to get rid of him, and a good riddance. If you want to blog with him then reach out to him through Rick’s blog.
Man you just wont quit.
One comment, I made 1 comment.
The rest were in response to you guys.
This guy farmer doesn’t think much of gold investors.
He dissed them big time.
Keep trading with your hearts gold bugs!
That is why that insulting & continually dissing farmer/birdbrain/A-listener went bu-bye…
Ex, your thinking too much, he left because of harrasment, just as others that disagreed with bugs did.
This sites loss.
You ever read Bob M? People pay big money to have their fantasys fed.
People just want to hear what they hope for.
He was removed for being a source of constant drama and didn’t leave voluntarily.
There has been minimal drama ever since so it was the right thing to do and had nothing with his bearish stance, and everything to do with how he harassed, attacked, insulted, and was a troll. It was the right thing to do – case closed.
Not my site, you must have got a personel email as nothing was said on the blog that I saw.
No I dont think it was right if thats what happened.
Chasing away people that are not “herdthinkers” is unwise imo.
Heck, there were a couple pro traders that posted here that said it was pointless.
But, not my site.
Conversly, when you and mat were not posting, and Bird was, there was no “drama” either.
I understand you guys only see your thinking which is one reason Bird was so good here.
It really must have bugged the bugs (you guys) when he was right for so many years about gold dropping, especially when he called drops to the day.
Re peatedly I might add.
You guys were btfd all the way.
Thats what happened no matter how much you guys try to cover it up with “trading”.
Trading works for you, thats great, I enjoyed the insightful thinking.
You dont, no big deal.
I think your hate makes you blind. just my opinion.
Exactly – more than three years of very tiring psychotic nonsense.
Very humorous assumptions but Wrongo in the Congo.
First of all, both Matthew and I were posting here long before birdy flew in and disrupted the blog. Bird got into it with Gary (and played a large part in Gary leaving), Avi, CFS, Pete, Dick Tracy, Gator, Archdeacon Andrew, OOTB, LPG, Marc Allen, Glenfidish, insulted Cory & Big Al, insulted Chris Martenson, and was a constant source of drama. The cancer was removed – just like HH, Frank, and crazy Mark was the right thing to do.
He wasn’t right for many years, and BTW I love that you assume you have a clue about me (you don’t) but I’m not a gold bug. I trade the mining companies and made plenty of money shorting gold stocks, and playing counter trend rallies during the bear market, as did Matthew and many others. I was very bearish on the metals in 2013, 2014 and 2015, but bullish for counter trend rallies for the miners.
It doesn’t surprise me that you didn’t read what was posted or follow along, and that you incorrectly make assumptions about what I am or how I did the last few years. Very comical, and very off base.
As long as you are smart enough to STFR, too, WTF is wrong with “BTFD all the way???
Bird got every major low dead wrong and most of what was in between. Those who bought the dips are much better off now even if they did not sell rallies.
EX,b doesn’t understand human relations and how they are built and interact, it makes no sense to try and tell him that Bird is gone because of the abuse he poured on others, he doesn’t understand now, he will never understand because his deck of cards is not a full hand. DT
Thanks Ex, but I made SOME money shorting gold stocks, not plenty. I did have good long-side winners though even not counting trading the ETFs. PPP warrants went huge for me in ’12 and CEM went 5x in ’14 after I posted that I liked it at the low before it did so. And there were others.
A solid point Dick Tracy. Thanks for reminding me. I don’t know why I try to have a logical discussion with him, but for some reason I always attempt it.
Matthew – sorry that was worded poorly. Personally I made a lot of money short stocks (using JDST and DUST at the correct times – and not in the middle of one of the largest upward bullish moves in the miners in 5 years like Bird did ๐ ) In addition, I made a lot of money playing the counter-trend rallies in the miners, and THAT is where I believe YOU did as well. Often we were on the same page in trading the rallies in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. We didn’t get them all correct, but I know I was right about 2 out of 3 times and still was able to profit in the miners during and overall Bear market. That was where I thought we had similar experiences. Sorry it was worded poorly.
No worries, and thanks for erring in my favor. ๐
Yes, I did do well on most of the rallies.
Ha! Yes, I figured as much. I actually read what you post though, unlike some critics. ๐
Gold Stocks Corrections in Bull Markets
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA |10/14/2016 | Editorials
https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-corrections-bull-markets/
Rick are you still calling for DOW 3000?
Gold and silver look absolutely awful
Another washout coming
Gold might give back all its 2016 gains
Gold like a cheap claimer packed it in.
Swab the deck
I am reading the above posts
What is the truth finally coming out
It is a slow death for the markets including mining. For gold it is like jumping out of a plane and it is getting some lift as the parachute just got pulled and people are getting relaxed but gravity will take hold. GDX 19 has been my target when it was above 30. GDX could go lower than my target.
Slow death? More like fast, normal, intermediate term correction for the miners. Neither the miners nor gold have even touched the 50/55 week MA.
Gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p24833301170&a=480942204
GDXJ hasn’t even touched the 200 day MA yet.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p99672160738
There was expert idiot on safehaven a few weeks ago looking for big move up and gdx of around 56 in a week.
Here is another expert fool:
http://safehaven.com/article/42465/gold-in-excess-of-8000-while-us-dollar-collapses
You got to keep an eye on the Elliot Wavers….. ๐
I agree w/Rick that, as a trade, buying GDX right here/now is dangerous. We need to see a reversal, and for me anyways a new uptrend of a day or 2 at least. Right now we have lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. BUT, it will likely turn up hard and fast, so one has to be ready every day.
Note that to Ricks’ comments on platinum, that gold follows platinum, note that PPLT’s daily chart’s RSI(14) is now VERY oversold. Adding credence that GLD and GDX may turn up in a week or 2.
But I myself shy away from correlations of any kind – $TYX, $USDJPY, whatever – I just have my Colt Python’s sights turned directly on, and only on, GDX.
Bill, thats my thinking, In a week or two.
Im always just guessing tho.
Rick is correct on GDX. The charts I’m following are showing the same thing.
Money Markets can Suspend Withdrawals…zerohedge