Technical Insights for the Pound, Treasuries, Gold and GDX
Rick kick off today and this week with his technical outlook on a few sectors that have taken a little beating in the past two months. Here are the charts we look at today.
- Pound vs USD
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond – TLT
- Gold and GDX in a short and longer-term look
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Also up about 1.5% today!
Also, as mentioned in the Market Close, I like the continued upward movement in the TSX!
Even if this correction has another leg down coming, it looks like GDXJ is about to move up 10%+ first:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=13&id=p20820790125&a=481625016
A correction in the dollar could give a $20 dead cat bounce in gold .
Sure it could Paul L. But we are not sure quite yet that the beginning of a correction has occurred at this point.
What do you think?
I agree. We get a bounce (before heading back down). I think we bottom in the metals in mid to late November after a sucker’s rally tight here, back to maybe the 50 dma.
This interview was so mind boggling I don’t know where to begin.
First, I will repeat once again your “strong dollar” call is not only on the wrong side of history it is dangerous.
You are a died in the wool deflationist.
However you have a long term call for a strong dollar, 120 and yet you have abandon your short call for $850 gold.
Clearly if someone has a strong $ 120 call it would only seem natural to also take the short gold $850 call, assuming the negative correlation.
However you flip flopped when gold shoot up and called for $1406 which didn’t happen either.
Quite frankly I have no idea,where you stand, which doesn’t really matter to me anyway.
Al, with all due respect gold has been a lot of things these last 5 years, one thing it has not been it RESILIENT. I think to keep calling it resilient is irresponsible.
You were TRASHING it post Brexit it was moving up.
Also Rick are you still calling for DOW 3000?
Why do you avoid the question?
James,
Rick brought two important topics to light. The difference between the mining stocks and the metal it’s self. Gold hasn’t popped through its long term downtrend line, which means it’s not clearly a bull. In fact it’s most likely still in bear territory. Many of the mining stocks have bottomed ( most likely )
Al, the Seahawks got lucky!😡
Like I’ve been saying for at a year-and-a-half, I’m downright bearish gold compared to the miners but bullish compared to the conventional stock market.
Well, of course the Seahawks got lucky.
For me, it just made the JD rocks taste so much better, Chart!
Keeping in mind the context of the time frame relating to my commentary au has been very resilient.
Of course if the discussion is for a five year time frame you are correct. My comment was not made in that context and I am not rationalizing!
For those who can view a 60 minute chart, GDX looks very promising here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=22&id=p90353884967&a=482143044
Oce the UK finally exits, it will have Insurance, banking services, and,believe it or not, fish to sell.
Once it reestablishes its territorial sea limit, and kicks the Spanish fleet out, allows the fish stock to recover, it (and especially Scotland) will have significant fish exporting capability. It, unfortunately, will take more than a decade, because the Spanish fishermen have been over-fIshing in British waters for 40 years. I include lobsters and other seafood in “fish”. The water temperatures and depth are ideal around the UK.
mentions of war today with Russia.
Will I be able to get Dover Sole for less than $45 a pound.
That’s what I pay when they are running.
Little bit different than the newsletter.
Always a good time to “stack”.
There will be lots to buy at 1225, just as there will be @ 16 silver.
Actually only a $25 and $1.50 difference, almost meaningless on a few onces of phyzz but it will matter to share prices.
Bobby,
I still believe that unless someone does something really, really stupid that war will never occur. But then again, Politicians have been know to do really, really stupid things. Haven’t they?
Time will tell. However i am gravely concerned.
$25 increase and up from here and folks will certainly start to get excited!
The dollar is very overbought and it ought to have a short term correction. RSI over 70.
We are definitely a crossroads here. I still think that the dollar drops to 89 and Gold goes to 1550 before the global deflationary bust occurs. XAU has held the 5/29 low of 77.99, and it is also holding the 200 day moving average. The trend is down since August. However, this could be just a pullback into the up trend that began in January. Time will tell.
This has been a pretty good year Velma and I, personally, don’t see a major reversal in this trend. How about you?
What may be a catalyst for a rise in gold? Plenty of talk regarding Biden threat of cyber retaliation at Russia https://goo.gl/xm5ny5 Coming out Clinton’s mouth too.
Just posturing, in my opinion, on Mr. Biden’s part.
Why does gold always need a “catalyst”
It never needs a catalyst to go down.
There are only so many catalysts out there, and frankly NONE OF THEM have helped.
If it is always going to require a catalysts throw it in the dumpster
To downright bearish gold compared to the miners is stating the obvious.
In a gold bull market the miners will always outperform gold, unless a particular miner has issues (bad management, bad geologist, issues with projects, hedged against rising gold…)
So everyone should always expect the miners to give you more leverage, this is basic.
I have never advocated only holding physical gold and not having any exposure to the miners.
I myself have always had several mining companies in my portfolio.
And during the bull my miners made me a fortune, and during the near they lost me a fortune.
It is just that simple.
Your core position should be real gold and silver (the worlds worst investment) and you can have some smaller portion on the miners.
Keep it simple.
Bottom line is if the miners are going up it is because gold is going up.
To say I’m bearish one and bullish the other makes no sense.
Just have both in your portfolio. They will go up and or down together.
The issue is not whether to have the miners or just have gold.
The issue is whether or not gold is in a bull market.
Some say yes, some say no, it isn’t any more complicated than that.
Here look what is happening now – gold fading again.
Like I said the other day, even on up days gold looks awful.
There’s no denying this
Nigel Farage and UKIP might have been the face of BREXITBREXIT, but there were eloquent and intelligent politicians, seeking to pit themselves out of a job.
e.g. M.EP. and intellectual, Daniel J Hannan, speaking before the BREXIT vote:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wqPlmjJXhh4
worth a listen. Absent from this short speech is his common referral to the possibility of the U.K. becoming a Switzerland-like country, but not isolationalist-neutral; but involved with NATO and more strongly working with ex-Commonwealth countries, once shed of duping EU rules, bureaucracy and other constraints.
I had forgotten, that because of the National Health Service, with access to 50-60 million records and patients, that prior to joking the EU, the U.K. did 10% of worldwide new drug development, and had a big pharmaceutical industry. (with 1% of world population)
I mistyped stupid, so my iPad incorrected to duping!
They definitely got duped by the EU rules. Thank goodness they busted out of that nonsense.
Joking ipaded from joining
Big Al, a request.
On an iPad, I find the box to small to read through a longer comment and correct things before “submitting comment”
If I try to pull the comment down in the box, usually the whole page just moves down.
Therefore I ask; “Would it be possible to enlargen the comment box 3 or 4 lines?”
I believe that when a person stops typing the dimensions of the box immediately stop also.
I think CFS was talking about a larger window to see what one is typing. It is set to 4 lines.
Hey CFS, our webmaster just had twins so she is a bit tied down. I will forward your request to her but it might take awhile. I have the same issue when I am typing on my phone.
First “to” should have been too. My iPad cannot spell as well as I can.
CFS, have you tried enlarging the screen over the “submit comment” box so the icon gets bigger? That’s what I have to do on my android, otherwise it won’t work, but once it’s enlarged, presto. I also have to be sure I’m in “landscape” view (sideways).
Good comment DC. I always have to play around with the zoom on my android as well. We will be working on making the site more mobile friendly next year. We just do not have the resources currently.
Enlarging the box enlarges the type, but still only allows 4 lines.
Why you talking about gold if you have no money for good phone?
Thanks for the help DC
I agree w/Rick that, short term, next move, GDX will go lower. But I think this next down will be it – time to get in. I’m watching the weekly GDX’s Slow Stoch as a signal.
The $USD’s daily RSI(14) is overbought, so next up is some kind of correction. However I don’t think that the $USD and $GOLD are in a tight lock, so I don’t use the $USD to time $GOLD. I use $GOLD to time $GOLD.
I wonder why Rick is so bullish on bonds (eg: TLT) when so many – many many many – equally smart folks are bearish on bonds, and think that bonds are in a bubble. Would like to know why RIck is so bullish. Me, I’m neutral – am focused on GDX instead.
Hey Bill. first off I also agree with Rick and your assessment of GDX having another move down but that will be a buying opportunity.
A for Rick’s call on bonds. He is firmly in the deflationary camp. He thinks the USD is going to 120 and bonds will be a capital gains play in this time.
I hope this answered your question. I am happy to bring it up with Rick again if you would like 🙂
Hi Cory. Yea I know all that, but compare this to someone like Harry Dent, whom is also a deflationist like Rick, and I think that Harry would say that, yes the $USD will rise (like Rick says), but that Bonds (different from Rick) and Stocks (same as Rick) will BOTH fall.
So if you ask Rick, I guess the q might be, in a deflationary world where the $USD goes up, why is it that he’s bullish on bonds while some others are bearish.
I’m not super well read, so I may be wrong on my impression here. Maybe deflationists all think that Bonds will go up, and Harry is in the minority.
Think about it though – in a deflationary world – everyone is trying to get out of leverage, and out of debt. A bond is a debt instrument, so I’d imagine that it’d fall, and hard. Also, as the $USD becomes more and more scarce, that would drive bond yields up, reflecting the higher value of holding a dollar vs debt (bonds) or stocks. Just my pea brain here.
Also note that Bond King Bill Gross is also bearish on bonds, and bullish on gold, if memory serves me correctly, although I have no idea if he’s a deflationist or not.
Note that some folks like Mike Maloney think that Harry’s right from today forward, but that after this period will be hyperinflation.
Bill, bonds can (not will) continue higher by simply outperforming the debt that it is denominated in: the U.S. dollar, aka: the Federal Reserve Note. So “higher” will most likely not be higher at all in real terms. Gold, commodities and necessities in general will continue to go up more than bonds.
If we use real money, gold, as our numeraire, we have seen a lot of price deflation since the real peak in the economy and the stock and bond markets 16 years ago. Gold is worth a lot more of just about everything today than it was in 2000. We have just the opposite situation when we price everything in the Fed’s fiat debt money. This makes sense when you consider the creditworthiness of the U.S. and the fact that it is in the middle of a long default via the proverbial printing press.
This is worth a look:
The Pyramid of Real Wealth
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-pyramid-of-real-wealth/2012/11/21/
That was good article on extraction of commodities and the graph with the pyramid of real wealth. Thanks.
Agree w/Al too that continually stacking/accumulating phys gold for insurance purposes is the MAIN play here. That’s the cake. The icing is GDX. James Turk really emphasizes regular accumulation, to cost average up/down. Makes good sense to me.
Don’t believe the myth that gold is insurance, it is not.
If you want insurance call up All State.
I think it’s insurance against a currency collapse. If currencies fail – because they are fiat, and because they are being printed into oblivion – then gold and other hard assets will be the best place to preserve wealth. This has been true for 1000’s of years, just not since 1971 or whatever. Take the long view. It’s not what we think, or what should be, but what is.
I did not know All State offered stock price or dollar value insurance.
You want insurance? You need good wife and lots of potatoes.
Nah,
You need a good wife who knows how to cook lots of potatoes many different ways.
Then doesn’t make you do the dish washing 😉
Excelsior.I don’t see a trading halt listed but looks like callinex was halted today
Yes, they have drill results that will be released tomorrow.
First gold is fiat.
This might come as a shock to some people but it is true.
Just because something is paper doesn’t mean it’s fiat, and just because something isn’t paper doesn’t mean it is not fiat.
But that is another arguement.
The last five years proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that gold isn’t always a safe haven and isn’t always insurance.
Quality stocks or rare baseball cards could serve just as well.
Gold is not and never has been insurance.
That is not true, James. Gold is not and was not fiat.
fi·at
ˈfēət,ˈfēˌät/Submit
noun
a formal authorization or proposition; a decree.
“adopting a legislative review program, rather than trying to regulate by fiat”
synonyms: decree, edict, order, command, commandment, injunction, proclamation, mandate, dictum, diktat
“a political union imposed through imperial fiat”
This was talked about some time back, I thought it had been clarified.
At this point gold is not fiat (not in Canada) but it has been fiat.
So, James is right, when the government decides gold is money, its fiat.
I guess,gold coins with a denomination would be fiat but I would think it was more the denomination than the gold that was fiat.
Guess the “what is money?” discussion could go round and round again.
The question like religion, seems to just go round and round.
B, you and James are wrong. Gold did not become money by government decree. It was already money. Governments recognized gold as money due to market forces. For pure paper currencies, it’s just the opposite: they are recognized as money due to government force.
Your house and your car are what they are whether the government decrees it or not and so is gold.
The “gold is fiat” crowd completely misses the point. Gold is money by choice due to its unmatched natural characteristics while government paper must be forced on markets because of its unmatched inappropriateness for the role.
I think you don’t know married life
LOL,
I visited a still standing old tiny historical cottage on Sunday (its approx 160+ years old.)
The one bedroom was wide enough for a single bed.
With no TV or Internet & limited bed space its no wonder its original occupants had 9 children !
Cheers.
sounds cozy
The gold is insurance test:
Scenario – you own a to of gold.
Gold starts climbing and takes out all time highs, similar to 2011.
You are making a lot of money.
Do you
a) jump up and down screaming yahoo!
b) say it doesn’t matter it’s only insurance anyway.
c) both
GDX also looks very good when priced in gold (GLD):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p17543334490&a=482138318