A permabear calling for higher US markets
Rick Ackerman is a self-admitted permabear when it comes to the equity markets. So when he comes out with much higher targets and reasons behind those targets I take note. We also chat about oil but the big takeaway is his overall target for the Dow of over 21,000.
Click here to visit Rick’s website.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
My Galane Gold got hit hard today and I bought what I could at .085 and .09 (average: .0865625).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p85285096585&a=486620615
Nice to hear that you are buying,Matthew.
I´m buying today too,but,man, it does not feel good.(i guess it´s not supposed to)
It´s funny/interesting/strange that when you have a plan,it´s hard to trade the plan.
Remember this: “True risk is not volatility but permanent loss of capital. Conventional wisdom views volatility as risk. We don’t. We befriend volatility, embrace it, and try to take advantage of it. For someone who has not researched a company, it is not readily apparent whether a decline in shares is temporary or permanent.”
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/71c4efdfcd90f72cb8bb6a019/files/Manifesto_web.01.pdf
I feel very comfortable buying today but less so about the fact that I bought so many shares at a higher price! 😮 😉
I am “comfortable” holding my core pm miners(i am ready to dump them if i feel i need to)
Thank you for posting the Manifesto,Matthew,i liked that 🙂
Rick, if the Dow goes to where you say it will, what ETF instrument is a good way to play the rise? Is QQQ a good one or are there others that reflect your prediction better?
Fundamentals in no way support an increasing Dow Index for at least the next year.
This euphoria will wear off.
2 cents.
19 GDX here we come? (19,03?)
On October 18, 2016 at 1:03 pm,
Pete says:
Im thinking that we go to ca25 on the GDX and then drop to ca19?
Just guessing of course.
The dollar ETF, UUP, hit its 10/25 high to the penny yesterday and, again, today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=13&id=p52558299536&a=481500765
Going to be alot of cash pumped in, recall the first qe, up it went.
Could be the same thing, they just going to print.
Mining News Digest
Friday 11 November 2016
Forget gold price. The real Trump rally is in copper
Industrial metals surge as US president elect vows massive infrastructure spending – budget could top $500 billion.
read »
Old news,B
On August 26, 2016 at 2:48 pm,
Pete says:
Go long copper ?
On August 26, 2016 at 7:48 pm,
Matthew says:
I think we’re both glad that silver hadn’t “been that strong recently” when we were buying our silver juniors at the lows in January. Once silver had been strong for a very short time, those juniors were up three to five fold.
The copper miners are telling us that copper bottomed in January.
COPX priced in copper:
http://schrts.co/HFGNOq
On August 26, 2016 at 11:30 pm,
Pete says:
Nice chart, yes i have some long term copper miner positions that i wont sell for years.
On August 27, 2016 at 9:04 am,
Excelsior says:
Agreed Matthew. This may be the contrarian time to start eyeballing solid copper projects, and I have been working on that sector. I’ve just spent most of my time the last few weeks on Zinc and PGMs and doubled the scope of the companies I was aware of and found a few new gems in the rough….. I’ll be working on Copper next.
I know Pete, but mining news digest put it out today.
I mentioned yesterday shares I watch moved, they are up again today.
Maybe it means nothin.
And potshares are up again today as well, as much as 20%.
Havnt been a bad place to park while waiting for golds move.
Nobody seems to want to talk about that, I wonder why.
It’s time to scrabble the eggs
Calling Bo Polny
Bo gold needs you
Where’s Bo?
Maybe Matthew will do
Wow talk about a FLIP FLOP
yeah yeah I know markets change
Here is a multi decade permanent bear wheeze been devastatingly WRONG for years and now he changes his spots.
Happy days are here again!
Utopia!
I think not.
Al, I know you want to cow cow to Rick but let’s get the FACTS straight
He called for 120 $
Last I looked 99 and 120 are t equal.
He also was just throwing out DOW 3000
People call be wrong. People can be right.
Let’s just try not to rewrite history.
Geez I wish Bird was still posting, he would have had a hayday.
Would have been hilarious.
I think most people on this blog are aware of that Bird is still posting.
He is?
I dont recognize him if he is.
I always caught his other incognito monikers.
Who is he?
There he is b,you see him? he is the third man
http://www.momentmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/BDDefinition-ThirdMan-n-1080.jpg
Good one, first time I didnt recognize.
Yes. I commented on it just the other day.
This should have appeared under Pete’s comment.
You’re hilarious, B. You act as if anything that’s going on with gold is surprising to me. I’ve talked about 1200 for many weeks.
I posted the following chart, complete with that little grey arrow, three weeks ago. As you can see, gold decided to go up first so, if anything, I was too bearish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=22&id=p93757690117&a=451259276
You’re right about Bird, though. He would indeed be having a “hayday” since, like you, he had no interest in facts.
Maybe you have Mat.
But I dont generally check links.
You trade, thats fine you probly make money.
But I dont play the way you do so I dont generally check what you say.
I explained that long ago.
No offence, just doesnt really apply to me.
I prefer as Bob explains in his book, buy what nobody wants.
You may have seen the move in dec-jan coming, so did I, so?
I didnt use ta, you do, there are more ways to understand whats happening than just ta.
Good to see you have stopped throwing insults.
B is for brick. It “just doesn’t apply” to you? Of course, it does, you just don’t know it. Either way, if you’re going to play white knight for your buddies, you better get your facts straight.
Your repeated claim that JTL’s bearishness is my problem with him is dead wrong but you can’t comprehend why. Bizarro.
Ah, back to insults and out of ideas again I see.
I spoke to soon I guess.
It’s your choice to be insulted by the truth.
It’s funny (but TYPICAL) that you can’t possibly see that JTL is insulting and combative without provocation.
There is clearly a deficit between your ears if you think it’s fine that he told a contributor to move to India for having the audacity to share an interesting article.
It might be time for a dow etf.
I really dislike etfs, too fast for me.
it’s all funny money anyway, just buy this bubble and the dollar will eventually POP! like the Zimbabwean buck!! http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-06-12/what-can-you-buy-100-trillion-zimbabwe-not-even-candy-bar
Thanks dw jones – tragic comedy.
“What can you buy for $100 trillion in Zimbabwe? Not even a candy bar.”
Trump is a genius when it comes to money and business.
He never losses.
He even beat the world to become president.
This odds of that were like 500 to 1
Whether you like him or not he knows how to win.
Everything is different now.
Personally I knew we could not have Jezebel in office but I also knew he would be TERRIBLE FOR GOLD, and he is.
There will be some on this board that will continue to dig their heels in but do yourself a favor – don’t let them drag you over the cliff with them.
Your ignorance is shocking Lessor James. Just how many times has a Trump company filed for bankruptcy? Look it up.
He is no genius.
This election really made me wish I was still going to the states.
I miss vegas.
At 500 to one Trump was a no brainer bet.
Win or lose, no brainer.
Not quite rubber band tho. lol
Andy Hoffman 11/9/2016
CFS, he knows how to take advantage of the law a cut losses and create winners.
He’s a winner. Winner win, losers cry.
Keep listening to jerks like Andy Hoffman, no nothing punters.
Watch that cliff…
Does nyonenremever that song…get on get on get on get on get on the groovy train, get on that groovy train.
Get on get on get on get on get on the Trump train, get on that trump train.
All the hypocrites like buffet and bezos are laughing all the way to the bank.
They played the girl and they got their man !
Bet on the Trump train.
Give me a break it’s the eighties
Gold should continue to do as it always has.
Gold bugs just seem to get carried away sometimes.
5-10% physical, the US is going to print 500 billion? Canada 80 billion?
We will get price increases, the inflation says so.
I cant but figure hard assets is the place to be.
someone dumps $10 billion in gold futures on the market : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-11/gold-crashes-5-month-lows-someone-dumps-over-10-billion-bond-market-holiday
The EXODUS in gold and silver right now is like the Jews leaving Egypt.
This is the REAL DEAL.
THIS IS A COMPLETE MELTDOWN IN THE COMPLEX.
THIS WAS PENT UP ENERGY AND IT IS GETTING THE EVER LOVING SNOT KICKED OUT OF IT
Invest in snot, nobody wants it.
gold will hit its bottom.
Talk is supply is low, but that 170k tons has been mentioned in awhile.
And supply is still meeting demand.
hasnt been talked about.
Is it just me, does nobody else wonder why with all these shortages and huge demand, demand continues to be supplied?
The Jews that had gold and diamonds were the ones that got out of Nazi Germany.
Any Jewish person that wanted out could leave from 1933 up to the Japanese attacking Pearl at which time Germany needed the ships for other priorities.
The Transfer agreement, to Palistine.
They didnt need gold,diamonds or cash.
What ever they did have had to be invested on farming equipment, later sold in Palistine where the procceeds were returned to the original investor.
The transfer agreement is something that doesnt get publicised.
On the other hand, gold and diamonds didnt hurt to have.
We are down to about 1225, Doc mentioned 1200 a while back?
If we break 1140 Dent might end up a genius.
Makes no sense tho, way too much printing, unless people have chosen bitcoin over gold.
Could happen, I dont see much gold being carried on spaceships.
Real estate Foreclosures
Up ….
Colorado +64 %….pot luck has struck
Pennsylvania +20%…to much brotherly love
Arizona +17%…..Sun stroke when opening new healthcare premium increase
Info at zerohedge
When I played the horses professionally I would come to a conclusion about a race.
I would quantify the horses chances of winning and then I would compare it to what the public was estimating.
If my estimate was greater than the publics than I had a bet.
However if both our estimates were so out of whack I always had to ask myself, “what am I missing”, maybe I’m wrong”
If after further examination I still strongly believed I was right I sent it in, having the courage of my conviction.
There were times I was wrong. I didn’t see something. I assumed incorrectly.
I pressed a pre conceived bias.
As long as you keep searching for value and have an edge in the long run you come out fine.
This gold market is baffling to many people. They are confused, bewildered.
They don’t get it.
They have to get to the place where they too say “maybe I’m wrong” “what am I missing”
You can be fully persuaded and be fully wrong.
This is that time.
It’s time to scrabble the eggs
Trump is a straw man of no consequence that was used to impose a republican majority on the unwilling population. The legislation coming out of this administration will neither be sucessful nor make America great again.
Probably true, but Hillary would be much worse. The left really needs to learn history and economics — and not Keynesian (Marxist) economics.
Seems to me Hillary and the DNC inintentionally gave us Trump. They thought ‘If she can beat anyone, it’s him.’
observer.com/2016/10/wikileaks-reveals-dnc-elevated-trump-to-help-clinton/
Wrong.
All the liberals wailing in the streets right now had the chance to get the leader of their dreams, Bernie, but they rolled over and let Hillary steal it from him. And now they’re protesting Trump?!? Too stupid.
“The left really needs to learn history and economics.” So true. I’m sure they have no clue about the Clintons’ real history.
To be fair, most of the so-called right also needs to learn history and economics.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” – Winston Churchill
The U.S. still has two left wings when it comes to economics, money, and centralized government control and intervention.
The left cannot exist without ignorance.
Very true. I’m equal opportunity when it comes to bashing Ds and Rs. But I’m also willing to hear good sense from either side, if they ever show any.
GH:
Ever hear of this Brandon Smith and his ideas? http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3055-trump-will-be-president-how-alt-market-predicted-the-outcome-five-months-in-advance
His take is that Trump was put in to take the fall when it really goes down.
That makes sense. Then the people would clamor for more of the types that caused the problems in the first place (L & R).
Good article. I actually thought that might be the plan with Obama — put the first black man in just before the country collapses.
It kinda makes sense with Trump, as it seems to me that TPTB want to use socialism to cement their control. And I do expect TSHTF during his administration.
I believe Brandon Smith is also the one who argues that the tension between the US, Russia, and China is all a show, and that the oligarchs are actually collaborating globally. It’s a possibility that must be considered, though I’m not convinced.
Governments have more in common with each other than with their own people so it makes sense that they might cooperate.
Good discussion in this thread guys. Agreed on many points. Thanks.
Doh!
UNintentionally
Matthew,any thoughts on this ?,
Pete, I know anything about Spock but based on this page: https://spockg.com/
it looks like he’s a very small investor who is focused on trading.
Thanks,Matthew.
Pete – Spock is very sharp dude. I’ve posted and commented on his charts before, and some other investors like Brian have posted his charts on the KER before.
This is a bad analogy, but Spock is to Gold Tent what Matthew is to KER. 🙂
Meaning – if either one posts a chart – I always give it a look and respect both highly.
I agree,Excelsior.
Pete, why are you asking Matthew his thoughts?
He’s been a wrong bull for 5 years
another Matthew Zombie
And my portfolio is still up nearly five-fold this year, even today. You’re a clueless crybaby, James.
Use your anger,James so that you, some day ,can get the % gains that Matthew gets on a regular basis.
Pete for some reason your comment made me think of this speech from Palpatine:
🙂
look at the price, it says it all!
give me a reason for it to go up, I’m listening.
you give me a reason!
James, this is all a normal correction. What’s with the hysteria?
It’s one thing to make the bear case. But if you want respect, do it respectfully, and stop subjecting us to multiple know-it-all, insulting rants every day. I’ve been short-term bearish for months. It’s on the record in the comments. Now, for the record, I think this drop will end the correction between now and year’s end. My guess for GDX has been between 20 and 22, based on my charting and James Flanagan’s historical parameters for gold bull corrections.
You’re making a total fool of yourself. Whose opinion do you think is more valued on this site, yours or Matthews?
100%,agree,GH
Until Crimex is out of business ,expect more of the same.
GH, I hiess,you think this is a normal correction because you are making a big assumption, that being gold is in a bull market.
But I challenge YOU to give me hard evidence to make that case.
As far as whose opinion has more weight.
I have been saying gold and silver have been in bear markets since gold was $1800 and silver broke $40
All the while Matthew kept swearing we are still in a bull market with his secular versus cyclical arguement. Meanwhile % wise both the metals and the stocks have been slaughtered.
To be frank my record has been spot on.
not too mention the one glaring factor you and many others tend to forget is the only thing thing that matters is how assets are doing relative to each other.
Gold and silver could very well be in a bull market.
If over the next 4,5,6 years stocks outperform then that is not a victory for gold.
Right now in NYC the chess championship is taking place.
My advice to you is start playing chess
The secular trend still consists of higher highs and higher lows so yes, I still “swear” that gold is in a secular bull market. I also swear that a cloudless daytime sky is blue.
A few comments, in the order you made them.
Yes, it is an assumption that gold is in a bull market. I believe the point you have made repeatedly is that the trendline from the top in gold has not been broken, so the bear isn’t over. My response, there isn’t just a single criterion for calling the end of a bear, beginning of a bull in gold. We HAVE seen the major downtrends broken in silver and in precious metals mining stock indices and ETFs. We’ve also seen the major downtrend in gold broken, when gold is priced in the S&P 500. The major downtrend in gold has probably also been broken in many currencies other than the US dollar, but I haven’t charted that.
So sure, if you need that line to be broken to announce BULL! then go for it. It’s hardly worth going back and forth over this. By time there is no question in anyone’s mind, it will not be nearly as interesting a trade.
Opinions, weight. Simple. If you want, ask for a show of hands. There’s no question about the result. I don’t mean that to be insulting to you–I certainly expect his opinion is valued more than mine also. It’s just a clear-eyed observation of the reality vs your taunting that makes you look foolish.
As for secular versus cyclical bull or bear markets, you don’t seem to understand the concept. I guess you’re arguing we are in both a secular and cyclical bear? Do you have any evidence or reasoned argument to support this view? That stocks have been slaughtered is insufficient. Stocks also get slaughtered in cyclical bears within secular bulls. I side with Matthew here. I believe it is a secular bull because none of the factors that led to gold’s rise have changed yet.
Record spot on. Not really. I mean, we’ve all known for years that it was a bear (whether secular or cyclical). Most of us think the bear is over. You don’t. It’s technically still an open question, I suppose. But you simply cannot claim to have been right for the past year, as that’s a key point in contention.
I’m much more interested in seeing you match your ability against his in real time, on calls that aren’t 5 years ago, and that provide concrete, tradeable info. E.g., ‘the general market has just topped and should head down for at least a few weeks.’ Otherwise, it’s just you crowing, while we’ve all watched Matthew make many impressive calls.
How assets are doing relative to each other. I tend to forget this? How would you know? I monitor a great many ratio charts.
“If over the next 4,5,6 years stocks outperform then that is not a victory for gold.” Obviously. But here’s my tradeable prediction on that: the general stock markets will go down in terms of both gold and commodities in general over the next few years. I don’t know when that trend will end, but hopefully will catch it on the charts when it does.
I actually posted this ratio chart for you in September, James, and suggested you might consider going long the gold sector when the ratio got back up to the 50 week moving avg at about 74. So far it has hit that level, but hasn’t closed above it. It might go higher, but in the mid-term (say first half of 2017) I still feel good about that call.
This chart looks like easy money to me, for someone with the time horizon to ride the big waves.
The bear may end in Feb as Doc suggests, but if 1140 breaks, it might be a new ball game.
Oil and the market was heading down as I said yesterday. Oil could head to around 41 now. I last sold at 45.90 and made some big XOP gains all week except today I had to take a loss as my orders from the premarket did not work out because I was out for a Remembrance day ceremony at my youngest daughter’s school where she was playing the lone trumpet. The damn banks were closed and they would not reflect my money transfer in the system which would have allowed me to average down and get out okay.
GH, you mention all these reasons to believe gold is now in a bull market.
What you don’t get is that something totally unexpected happens all those metrics are thrown out the window.
The Trump win is a game changer.
It was totally unexpected, not to me, I bet on him, but on many.
Due to that fact everything is thrown up in the air.
It’s like carbon 14 dating. You calculate the half life and extrapolate.
But when lightning hits the rock everything is incalculable.
Donald Trump is that lightning strike.
That’s a lot of verbiage to say nothing concrete…so, what does it portend?
The Trump victory has been notable and interesting, to me. Does it change what the markets have been heading toward for decades? No. It will be interesting to see how he manages it, though.
SLW was 25 on Wed. and I just bought more@18.6