Hour 1 – Investing – The markets looking ahead to a Trump Presidency
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In the first hour of this week’s show we focus on the crazy market moves after the election. The US markets garnered a buy along with base and industrial metals. Gold sold off to a great degree than silver but both were down big on Friday to finish the week. Investors are clearly confused and were scrabbling to readjust their portfolios after the Trump victory… The question is did they make some irrational decisions?
- Segment 1: Fund Manager Dana Lyons recaps the week with some stats to show how nutty the trading was.
- Segment 2: Valentin Schmid, Business Editor for the Epoch Times discusses how China’s economy will impacted with a return to America mentality.
- Segment 3: David Ackerman, CCO at Sound Income Strategies shares his insights on US debt held by foreigners.
- Segment 4: John Kaiser looks at the opportunities in resource companies in North America with Trump in office.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
CFS – Stepping up to the plate. Cheers!
Thanks Big Al & Cory for another weekend show. Looking forward to digesting all the audio in both shows from all the special guest commentators.
Thanks for show, Guys
Did you know China now controls about 70% of all virtual currencies?
I wonder what percentage of gold they control!
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-china.html
“Over 70 percent of the transactions on the Bitcoin network were going through just four Chinese companies, known as Bitcoin mining pools — and most flowed through just two of those companies. That gives them what amounts to veto power over any changes to the Bitcoin software and technology.”
“Chinese exchanges have accounted for 42 percent of all Bitcoin transactions this year, according to an analysis performed for The New York Times by Chainalysis.” …
“But China’s clout is raising worries about Bitcoin’s independence and decentralization, which was supposed to give the technology freedom from the sort of government crackdowns and interventions that are commonplace in the Chinese financial world.”
“Chinese took quickly to Bitcoin for several reasons. For one thing, the Chinese government had strictly limited other potential investment avenues, giving citizens a hunger for new assets.”
“There has been widespread speculation that Chinese people have used Bitcoin to get money out of the country and evade capital controls, but Mr. Lee and other experts said the evidence suggests this is not a significant phenomenon.”
The bottom line:
“The Chinese government normally expects its businesses to obtain a leading role in emerging industries,” he said. “China’s Bitcoin businesses have achieved that.”
Re: Segment 4.
With the trade imbalance that is occurring, the problem may not be how much China holds currently, but how much they will hold in the future.
As long as US bonds have higher interest rates than the rest of the world, other countries will continue to buy. But the balance between supporting the dollar and the ability to service the debt is a very fine line to walk.
The comment about China and bitcoin reminded me of a discussion about China in the following podcast –
You will see that one of the topics that were discussed was “Exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce”.
If you listen, you would be astounded (as I was) at the immense profit potential to be had with prudent investments in China.
I don’t know if anyone is pursuing Chinese investments, but I am looking to increase my knowledge about this market and would be curious to hear the thoughts of anyone else who has experience or who is also researching opportunities there.
How concerning or how real is the possibility that Trump(a huge fan of using bankruptcy to his advantage) really follows through with the pre election rhetoric of defaulting on some US debt???
Was watching BNN.ca this morning. What got me watching this were comments on Kirkland Lake gold, which is now the sublect of an hostile takeover offer.
http://www.bnn.ca/market-call/full-episode-market-call-for-friday-november-11-2016~986573
Hi FranSix – Yes we were discussing this on Wednesday…. Here are two different press releases from earlier in the week regarding the Kirkland Lake Gold vs Newmarket Gold merger, and the counter offer from Gold Fields & Silver Standard:
_____________________________________________________________________
Exclusive: Gold Fields, Silver Standard offer C$1.4 bln for miner Kirkland Lake
Fri Nov 11, 2016 – John Tilak and Nicole Mordant (Reuters) –
“South Africa’s Gold Fields Ltd and Silver Standard Resources Inc have made three joint, unsolicited bids for Canada’s Kirkland Lake Gold and recently sweetened their offer to about C$1.4 billion ($1 billion), three sources familiar with the process said….”
Kirkland Lake Gold Addresses Market Rumours
(Marketwired – Nov. 11, 2016) – Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (TSX:KLG)
“As disclosed in the Joint Management Information Circular of Kirkland Lake Gold and Newmarket Gold Inc., Kirkland Lake Gold received a joint, unsolicited, written Acquisition Proposal, and a revised Acquisition Proposal prior to the mailing the Circular. The Company also acknowledges it recently received a further revised Acquisition Proposal with an expressed notional value of $1.44 billion payable in cash and shares of Silver Standard Resources Inc. All of these proposals were made on a joint basis by Gold Fields Netherlands Services B.V. and Silver Standard Resources Inc.”
Reuters: Gold Fields, Silver Standard offer C$1.4B for Kirkland Lake
Nov. 11, 2016
Gold Fields (GFI -6.8%) and Silver Standard Resources (SSRI -8.7%) have made three joint unsolicited bids for Kirkland Lake Gold (OTCPK:KGILF +11.1%) and recently sweetened their offer to ~C$1.4B, Reuters reports.
The latest bid would represent a 50%-plus premium of Kirkland Lake’s value on Thursday, but the company reportedly rebuffed the offer; Kirkland Lake said two weeks ago that it got two bids but did not name the bidders.
If GFI and SSRI succeed in their bid, it would derail Kirkland Lake’s planned acquisition of Newmarket Gold (OTCQX:NMKTF -4.8%); shareholders have a Nov. 23 deadline to vote on the Newmarket deal.
CFS – Thanks for the update on Kirkland Lake.
Kirkland Lake rejects alternative Gold Fields, Silver Standard bids valued at $1.44bn
12TH NOVEMBER 2016 – BY: HENRY LAZENBY
Avino Silver & Gold Mines’ (ASM) CEO David Wolfin on Q3 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
Nov. 10, 2016 10:39 PM
Aura Minerals Announces Q3 2016 Financial and Operating Results
Thu November 10, 2016 5:05 PM|Marketwire (ARMZF)(TSX: ORA)
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16664993-aura-minerals-announces-q3-2016-financial-operating-results
This was an interesting editorial, some resonated and some did not, but worth a read.
‘Believe Me, We’re In A Bubble Right Now – A Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble’
Nov. 12, 2016 – Gary Gordon (21,407 followers – Seeking Alpha)
Midnight in America
By: Peter Schiff – Thursday, November 10, 2016
Expect The Unexpected
Nov. 11, 2016
William Koldus, CFA, CAIA (5,817 followers – Seeking Alpha)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4022524-expect-unexpected?ifp=0
Gold, Miners Under Trump
Adam Hamilton – Nov 11, 2015
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton111116.html
Trump slump: gold price is tumbling
Frik Els | a day ago
2 charts to make sense of gold price plunge
Frik Els | a day ago |
http://www.mining.com/2-charts-make-sense-gold-price-plunge/
A reminder to mining investors that the Metals Investment Forum is going on today.
Videos of these presentations should be up next week on their site. Here is the lineup:
Some investors may have missed or not finished going through the Precious Metals Summit from earlier in the month. There are a few good Keynote speakers and company presentations.
http://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2016/11/02/precious-metals-summit
The Electric Porsche Needs to Roar
Bloomberg Businessweek – Christoph Rauwald & David Rocks
November 11, 2016
“Our customers are very emotional about sound.”
“Porsche’s effort comes as the industry starts to pay more attention to electrics and the European Union prepares rules to go into effect in 2020 that dramatically tighten limits on carbon dioxide emissions. Mercedes-Benz has created a new brand, EQ, for its zero-emission cars. Audi, Porsche’s sister brand at Volkswagen, is planning a battery-powered SUV in 2018 and at least two more electrics by 2020. BMW, which launched its electric i3 city car in 2013, is preparing an electric SUV and a Mini. And Tesla has seen strong sales of its $65,000-plus Model S and plans to start selling the $35,000 Model 3 next year.”
“By 2020 global sales of battery-powered vehicles will quadruple to more than 1.2 million, according to researcher LMC Automotive. “The whole industry is turning toward electric mobility, and Porsche has to be there, too,” says Stefan Bratzel, an auto industry researcher at the University of Applied Sciences in Bergisch Gladbach, Germany.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-11/the-electric-porsche-needs-to-roar
Why would anyone want to limit the production of plant food?
We entered the Twilight Zone long ago and Orwell warned us about it.
A major part of enjoyment of a 911 is the sound. They will have to come up with some special motors that can simulate that sound.
Copper was up as much as 31% in the last three weeks and has broken-out on incredible volume.
Dr. Copper appears to be telling us that we have a global “crack-up boom” coming our way. Mr. Common Sense agrees.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=6&mn=2&dy=0&id=p47741342803&a=486871395
Describing what he called the “crack-up boom,” Ludwig von Mises, the great Austrian economist, said:
The boom cannot continue indefinitely. There are two alternatives. Either the banks continue the credit expansion without restriction and thus cause constantly mounting price increases and an ever-growing orgy of speculation — which, as in all other cases of unlimited inflation, ends in a “crack-up boom” and in a collapse of the money and credit system.
Or the banks stop before this point is reached, voluntarily renounce further credit expansion, and thus bring about the crisis. The depression follows in both instances.
https://mises.org/blog/america-needs-good-old-fashioned-economic-depression
Copper explodes above $6,000 with prices set for best week ever
11TH NOVEMBER 2016 – BLOOMBERG
Copper posts best back-to-back gain since 2013 on Trump splurge
11TH NOVEMBER 2016 – BY: BLOOMBERG
HudBay resumes Constancia ops on peaceful brokered resolution
11TH NOVEMBER 2016 – BY: HENRY LAZENBY
Zinc is at a five year high:
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-zinc-5y-Large.gif
LME warehouse stocks are very close to a five year low:
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-zinc-5y-Large.gif
Heron spin-off proceeds
11TH NOVEMBER 2016 – BY: ESMARIE SWANEPOEL
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/heron-spin-off-proceeds-2016-11-11
Americas Silver Corporation (TSX: USA) – Precious Metals Summit Nov 2016
Darren Blasutti, President & CEO
I remain very impressed with how the Americas Silver cash costs are going to continue moving down as San Rafael comes into production. Even better, their cash costs will actually be negative, once at full production, due to the Zinc and Lead credits.
2017 will be the transformational year for (USA) (USAPF); although I would argue that their work the last 2 years has got them to this point where they can become one of the great turn-around stories in the Silver mining space.
If their plan unfolds as projected, then by 2018 they should be fully re-rated and respected by the industry and at a substantially higher share-price. If you believe metal prices are going higher by 2018, that will just be a multiplier effect.
I should clarify I meant their cash costs at San Rafael will eventually be negative due to the Zinc and Lead, but their overall company cost will drift down to the $5-$7 per ounce cost overall. Still, by mid to late 2017, they’ll be bringing home the bacon.
(USA) (USAPF) Americas Silver Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2016 Financial Results
Mon November 14, 2016
Third Quarter Highlights
— Quarterly revenues of $16.8 million and a net income of $1.0 million or
$0.01 cents per share in Q3, 2016 compared with revenues of $12.8
million and a net loss of ($4.8) million or ($0.01) cents per share in
Q3, 2015.
— Net cash flow generated from operating activities in Q3, 2016 of
approximately $2.2 million compared with net cash flow used in operating
activities of approximately ($2.6) million in Q3, 2015 as a result of
the sustained increase in metals prices during the third quarter
impacting realized metal prices.
— As previously released, consolidated silver production for the quarter
decreased 13% compared with Q3, 2015 to approximately 600,000 silver
ounces, while silver equivalent(1) production for the quarter decreased
6% to approximately 1.2 million ounces as activities began to slow at
the Nuestra Senora mine and preparations were made to transition to
other ore sources at the greater Cosala Operations.
— Consolidated cash costs(2) for the quarter improved 17% to $10.00 per
silver ounce compared with Q3, 2015, while all-in sustaining costs(2)
for the quarter improved 22% to $12.86 per silver ounce year-over-year.
— The San Rafael Project (the “Project”) continues to progress on time and
budget following the Board of Directors’ approval for construction in
September 2016 and the formal construction commencement in October. This
Project is expected to be the Company’s key cash flow generator for 2017
and beyond at current silver and base metal prices.
— The Company made an early principal repayment of approximately $0.7
million towards its outstanding November 2015 debt facility during Q3,
2016, and made an additional early principal repayment on its February
2016 debt facility of approximately $1.3 million in October, subsequent
to the quarter-end, for total repayments of $2.0 million. The Company
expects to make further principal repayments prior to maturity of
existing credit facilities.
— Cash balance at September 30, 2016 of $26.6 million with net working
capital of approximately $28.0 million.
Now all we do is wait for Tax Loss Selling to drive the price back into the teens in December.
Yes, I’ll load up when that happens.
It is already on sale at a 12.5% discount from Friday and is looking oversold now after today’s news. Maybe a day trade situation for now.
Duly noted. I have a nice $0 cost basis position in place, but may just start adding to it into the weakness today.
Added to Alexco as well. Fire sale today.
Thanks for your weekend show as always gent’s,
Much appreciated.
Cheers.
The daily dow-gold chart depicts a good opportunity to sell conventional stocks and buy gold (or, preferably, gold stocks).
DIA:GLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p05092726963&a=486910439
The ratio could get more overbought (daily chart) first, but that massive weekly chart gap is very likely to get filled:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p75506739451
The DIA-GDX ratio is 9 right now and will be on its way to 2 or less when this correction is over:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p06719393630
That ratio can rise another 8% before running into significant resistance:
(To get there, I think GDX could fall another 5 or 6% while stocks rise another 2 or 3%.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p98418035755&a=486995819
Thanks for the weekend show.
And thanks to a few brave,for their posts 🙂
Not sure if this was posted already on Eurasian
http://www.provenandprobable.com/blog/interview-david-cole-eurasian-minerals-royalty-generator/
Nice interview on Eurasian. Thanks Wolfster.
At least a short term low looks imminent. I would prefer to see GDX dip below 20 tomorrow rather than later, after a bounce, as I think that would increase the odds that an important low in being made.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p13366499680&a=480292154
Comanus Rising Podcast – November 13, 2016
http://www.comanusrising.com
” In this episode of the Comanus Rising Podcast we talk about the week in gold and gold stocks, what we got right and what we got wrong in the US elections and then we go over the significant press releases from the Canadian junior exploration resource companies including: Waseco Resources $WRI Aton Resources $AAN Knick Exploration $KNX Osisko Mining $OSK Northern Shield Resources $NRN Northwest Arm Capital $NWA Goldstar Minerals $GDM Teuton Resources $TUO Almadex Minerals $AMZ Inventus Mining $IVS Walker River Resources $WRR Irving Resources $IRV Battle Mountain Gold $BMG Carlin Gold $CGD Garibaldi Resources $GGI Terrax Minerals $TXR . We talk gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, uranium, antimony, tin and oil.”
Fishing Line Sell Offs Beginning to Appear in Miners
Friday November 11, 2016
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-11-11/Fishing-Line-Sell-Offs-Beginning-to-Appear-in-Miners.html
It doesn’t matter who is holding the debt. The Day of Reckoning will kill everyone around the world.
Americans have lost sight of what true Capitalism is.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-11/clintons-and-soros-launch-americas-purple-revolution