In addition to price action and volume, there are a lot of tools/indicators but the MACD and the STOs suggested that a new daily chart upleg had begun a couple weeks ago. Those indicators look even better now and the price action is confirming them. For the big upleg that we are all waiting, monitor the weekly chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=7&dy=0&id=p74195798638&a=403938174

I consider my full sto 14,7,7 more important than the slow sto 14,3 and will often not sell the slow sto sell if the full sto is still on buy.

For example:

(And silver is looking good, btw.)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p69324479571&a=491188234

The trick is to be confident before everyone else unless certainty valued more than large gains. The more proof we need to confirm a move, the more of that move we give up. The average guy doesn’t believe what he is seeing until the move is nearly spent and ends up confidently buying THE top. This is why it seems that almost everyone who was in gold in the 1970’s has a bad story to tell. Most people bought at the top when they were thoroughly convinced that they couldn’t lose. The same thing happened with stocks in ’87 and ’08. Everyone sold at the bottom.

Thanks Matthew. 2 great points:

1) Full stochastics versus Slow Stochastics

2) “The trick is to be confident before everyone else unless certainty valued more than large gains. The more proof we need to confirm a move, the more of that move we give up. The average guy doesn’t believe what he is seeing until the move is nearly spent and ends up confidently buying THE top.”

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Most investors will never understand your second point Matthew, but I believe it’s one of the most profound points in speculative trading or longer term buy and hold value investing. It is also the most difficult thing for investors to do, because it feels so counter-intuitive, and hence, why there are so few real contrarian investors.

However, it isn’t a binary issue either as there is a spectrum of risk from no evidence all the way up to stock or companies success being self evident to everyone.

Personally, I like being in on the early end of the curve in Exploration, and before big news is going to break on development stage companies (permitting, land purchase, PEA, FS, first pour, etc…), but I like being in during the uncertain phase on Producers (but where there is quarter over quarter improvements being made, or a misunderstanding on a bad quarterly report by the marketplace – where it is clear there was a one-off event that caused the slip and people are extrapolating that out incorrectly).

Here’s another example in which the full sto works better than the slow sto:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GYX&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p88058757834&a=462552618

Here’s another. I wouldn’t trust that slow sto buy based on that full sto:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USB%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85803299558&a=464882778

Btw, note the bearish engulfing candle.

It’s best when we get a bunch of signals in sync with one another:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p59616750601&a=491315781