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A Focus on the Health of Gold Companies and International Gold Demand

Cory
December 3, 2016

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In the fist hour of this week’s show we focus on the gold sector and it’s health moving forward after 4 straights weeks of declining prices. Stock prices have come down more than 50% from their highs earlier this year but the actual Companies are in better shape than at the end of last year. We also take a look at the mining environment in Australia as well as the falling demand for gold in Asia.

  • Segment 1: Dan Oliver founder of Myrmikan Capital based in New York discuss why gold companies do not benefit from economies of scale.
  • Segment 2: We continue with Dan Oliver this time discussing the impacts of a Trump stimulus and if it will work.
  • Segment 3: A first hand look at the mining environment in Australia from Quinton Hennigh, CEO and President of Novo Resources.
  • Segment 4: Jeff Christian, Managing partner at the CPM Group shares his thoughts on why the demand in China for gold has been decreasing.

 

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Discussion
165 Comments
    CFS
    Dec 03, 2016 03:12 AM
      Dec 03, 2016 03:10 AM

      Good thoughts from Dan Oliver this weekend on the Gold Miners.

      Thanks Cory & Big Al for another great Weekend Show!

      Dec 03, 2016 03:09 AM

      Thanks for the link CFS. Will get a good idea of the future from both Austria and Italy.

    CFS
    Dec 03, 2016 03:22 AM

    I listened to Jeff Christian. I know he is supposed to be an expert, but….

    Take a look at this graph:
    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Fqp-8fipZU0/WEDeLIB9jrI/AAAAAAABMUc/WZk7oBdkmS0IyEzqk3dzy-Bho-q_2xntQCLcB/s1600/SGEAUDelivery0220161202.gif
    and explain how this indicates a dropping demand for gold in China.

    I know it has been a couple of years since I last visited China, so I am not up to date, but all my information tells me richer Chinese businessmen are trying to get a portion of their wealth out of RMB.
    Hence the buying of real estate in Canada (especially Vancouver) and buying gold is part of that move away from RMB denominated assets.

      Dec 03, 2016 03:05 AM

      Not sure if you are aware but there was a 15% tax implemented on foreign real estate buyers in the province of b.c. that has dramatically effected the buying of real estate in Vancouver.May have moved demand to Toronto instead but worth noting

        Dec 03, 2016 03:50 AM

        Ross Kay on This Week In Money maintains that there was already a correction in BC House Price markets, before the implementation of the foreign buyer tax. Foreign buyers were only 3% of the market at any given time and were disappearing last spring. There was aggressive speculation in house prices the moment a property was flipped, where the house price advanced several times before the property was actually sold and the buyers’ competition was the structural problem. Foreign buyers were obviously laundering money, though, and nobody blew the whistle.

        http://www.howestreet.com/2016/11/19/this-week-in-money-79/

          CFS
          Dec 03, 2016 03:40 AM

          Yes, I was aware of the tax started at the end of July this year.
          The latest l statistics out of BC for October are that sales at CA$113 million to foreign buyers, y-o-y decrease of 13.2% from last year.

            CFS
            Dec 03, 2016 03:44 AM

            There was not so much a decrease in foreign buying, but a switch in location from Vancouver to Toronto for Chinese money, although there is talk of it spreading further (Quebec, Montreal).

        Dec 03, 2016 03:14 AM

        Note my comment about what is currently going on here in Semiahmoo wolfster.

      Dec 03, 2016 03:12 AM

      Definitely true regarding real estate in Canada. We are seeing a notable change in buyers here in Semiahmoo. I have to say that these folks a pretty hard to warm up to and for an outgoing person like me that is a real shame!

      Aside from my good friend Fred Wong they really stick to themselves and speak in their own language.

    CFS
    Dec 03, 2016 03:35 AM

    Referring to Chinese gold demand, I do wish to point out that one can get “different” descriptions of the situation depending on whether you talk in units of ounces or dollars.

    Koos Jansen, I believe,is probably the best informed:

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/china-imported-nearly-1000-tons-of-gold-in-the-last-quarter/

    Dec 03, 2016 03:14 AM

    I have a point of contention on economies of scale. You need a big mining operation in a single region, but not a single mine source for all of your ore. For example, the Homestake mine was a single mine with an economy of scale in a single location. However, the sources of ore were multiples of what you would find in a small mine with a single source of ore. All of the small mines in Ontario opened during the depression era went bankrupt as a result of costs exceeding the fixed gold price and unavailable labour due to the war. You need a big mine, or a mining region in a single location that can provide ore under all circumstances. A single small mine will be at great disadvantage when gold prices finally collapse, but the big mine or the mine with an economy of scale will continue to provide yield.

    Dec 03, 2016 03:25 AM

    The weekly close of the TNX/PRII indicator is clearly showing a reversal. Gold prices have not entirely responded to this development, but as we saw in the interim top, gold prices ground out the top interminably for weeks before retracement into the low, which came all at once.

    http://schrts.co/bTtSjF

    Dec 03, 2016 03:15 AM

    For gold royalty fans
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty113016.html
    I hold gzz as a way of playing the malartic area for now myself but am considering the dividend of osisko as a way to play it

      Dec 03, 2016 03:56 AM

      Great article from Bob M. on Osisko Gold.

      Thanks for posting it wolfster. Agreed on GZZ for some exposure as well.

    Dec 03, 2016 03:16 AM

    I know some aren’t a fan of him but for those that are Adam Hamilton on gold junior fundamentals
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120216.html

      Dec 03, 2016 03:24 AM

      I’m a big fan of Adam Hamilton. Who isn’t?

        Dec 03, 2016 03:30 AM

        Birdman sure wasn’t but smart people are.

          Dec 03, 2016 03:59 AM

          Thanks for clearing that up, Matthew.

        Dec 04, 2016 04:10 PM

        I thought Adam made a great point about GDX being included as a holding in the JR mining index:

        “For weeks now if not longer, one of GDXJ’s top components has actually been the GDX major-gold-miners ETF! This decision is dumbfounding. Investors aren’t buying GDXJ because they want major exposure, they would buy GDX for that. They are expecting to own junior gold miners like GDXJ advertises. So it’s really lazy GDXJ’s managers chose to include GDX as a top component regardless of the reason.

        GDX never should’ve been even a temporary placeholder in GDXJ. If GDXJ’s managers had to remove a top component for some reason, they should’ve just shifted up all the component weightings that were underneath it. With 46 component companies, removing one isn’t even material. I have no idea why GDX has been a major GDXJ component at all, let alone for so long. It impugns this ETF’s selection credibility….”

          GH
          Dec 05, 2016 05:53 AM

          Great point. I had no idea.

      Dec 03, 2016 03:09 AM

      Thanks wolfster. Always good to read Adam’s thoughts.

      Dec 03, 2016 03:48 AM

      HAYWOOD RESEARCH – Investors Seek Floor as Gold Price Steadies

      The Weekly Dig – December 2, 2016
      Mick Carew, PhD, and The Haywood Mining Team

      http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1c440r0-MMDec22016_ceo_secured.pdf

      Dec 03, 2016 03:20 AM

      of course!

      Hey I tried to buy some Pasinex on the OTC this week and my order was rejected twice on no volume available. Looks like I’ll have to pick the up some PSE instead.

      I’m still impressed with Arizona Mining, Callinex, Trevali, Heron, and Ivanhoe & Constantine have some nice exposure, along with the majority of Silver miners.

      A few other companies with Zinc exposure that I’m becoming much more interested in are Vendetta, Tinka, Canada Zinc Metals, Zazu Metals, Orosur, Yorbeau, and GPM Metals.

      Also for prospect generators I still like the zinc exposure in Eurasian Minerals, Globex, Solitario Exploration, and Avrupa Minerals.

    Dec 03, 2016 03:25 AM

    Btw.wasnt to the same extent as earlier in the week but Dundee securities was the main buyer again heading into the close on Friday of Trevali .seriously think it’s just a matter of time before they get taken out….

    Dec 03, 2016 03:35 AM

    “Segment 3: A first hand look at the mining environment in Australia from Quinton Hennigh, CEO and President of Novo Resources.”

    – Cory this was a great segment to highlight Australian Mining. It really doesn’t get enough focus from investors that are obsessed with Canada, US, & Mexico.

    – It might be interesting to highlight other countries or regional areas on different continents. (ie…. there are huge differences between West Africa versus South Africa or the Arabian / Nubian Shield over in North East Africa into the Middle East) Indonesia, Thailand, Chinese, Japanese mining could be another segment. Mining in Europe is very diverse as well, but certain countries like Ireland, Finland, Sweden, have some interesting things going on.

    Good stuff!

      Dec 03, 2016 03:02 AM

      It might be nice to get Michael Belkin back on the show sometime soon to discuss Australian stocks.

      Skeeta – any update on Australian miners that should be on our radar? You still liking Kidman Resources? I’m still looking into some of the other Aussie names you mentioned like Aurelia, Azure, Crater Gold, Excelsior Gold, Red 5, ABM Resources, A1 Consolidated, and WPG Resources.

      Teranga Gold is still my top Australian company – but they are mainly focused in Africa and I’m excited about the new combined company with Gryphon.

      Metals X is still interesting to me as well for base metals and gold.

      One that I added to this week again, that really has my interest is Alkane Resources:

      I love that they are just jamming away as Gold producers at their Tomingley Gold Project, but with the ultimate goal of building out their huge and very unique specialty metals Dubbo Zirconia Project.

      St Barbara Ltd and Norther Star Resources were other companies in Australia that I’ve traded in the past.

      Resolute Mining has had my interest for some time as a very solid Mid-tier in Australia.

        Dec 03, 2016 03:06 AM

        I also own Galaxy Resources and NeoMetals LTD for Australian Lithium producers.

        Galaxy is now ramping up its production and processing centers and I believe it will appreciate nicely from here:

        Galaxy Resources Corporate Presentation – Swiss Mining Institute – Nov 2016

        http://www.galaxylithium.com/media/announcements/43d3nqm3nkrf24.pdf

          Dec 03, 2016 03:12 AM

          Neometals and its JV partners have commenced production at the jointly owned Mt Marion lithium mine and are focused on developing the Kalgoorlie lithium hydroxide facility.

          Neometals is planning to exploit one of the world’s highest grade hard rock titanium deposits by employing a proprietary acid leach process to produce high purity TiO2, Fe2O3 and V2O5 from the Barrambie deposit. (nice Vanadium kicker)

          NeoMetals – Annual General Meeting Presentation
          November 2016 – ASX Code: NMT

          http://www.neometals.com.au/reports/691-1621482.pdf

            Dec 03, 2016 03:13 AM

            NeoMetals Mt Marion Lithium Plant Commissioning VIDEO
            November 2016

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0SIYCDum3s

            Dec 03, 2016 03:35 AM

            ** Unlike most of the #LithiumMarketingFluffTrash being peddled to investors in the LI frenzy, Neometals and their partners are a real company. Like I mentioned a while back $GXY.AX $GALXF Galaxy Resources would be next into production (and they were) behind $ORL $OROCF Orocobre, and then the JV with $NMT.AX $RRSSF NeoMetals/Ganfeng/ and $MIN.AX $MALRF Mineral Resources would be next (and now they are).

            Regardless of what happens to the 80-90 other deal jumper “Lithium” companies that converted over from Gold, Uranium, and Rare Earths, these companies have actually been working on their projects for some time and their success on making it into production should be noted. There aren’t that many more Lithium projects that are really needed, but the next projects in line to be developed are $NMX $NMKEF Nemaska Lithium, $LAC $LACDF Lithium Americas Corp, and $PLS.AX $PILBF Pilbara Minerals.

            There are definitely a few other interesting exploration projects coming up ( $DJI $DJIFF Dajin Frontier $CRE $CRECF Crital Elements or $PE $PEMIF Pure Energy Minerals etc….,) but those are the main players that are either in production or developing into production.

            We don’t need 80 more companies to supply the Lithium demand for the next decade.

        Dec 03, 2016 03:08 AM

        Alkane Resources Ltd is an ASX and OTCQX (US) listed multi-commodity mining and exploration company with a focus on gold, copper, zirconium, hafnium, niobium and rare earth elements. Our projects and operations are located in the Central West of New South Wales, in eastern Australia.

        Alkane Resource – Corporate Presentation
        Annual General Meeting – Sydney – November 2016

        http://www.alkane.com.au/images/pdf/asx/2016/161116.pdf

        Dec 03, 2016 03:30 AM

        I believe that Michael will not be back for quite a while as the other site that carries his material will not permit it.

          Dec 03, 2016 03:37 AM

          Darn. I really like how open Michael was with sharing stock ideas. Thanks for the heads up though Big Al.

      Dec 03, 2016 03:28 AM

      Cory is putting out a lot of “good stuff” Excelsior.

        Dec 03, 2016 03:38 AM

        Indeed he is. Thanks to you both for all the hard work.

        (now get back to spoiling your grandchildren 🙂 )

    Dec 03, 2016 03:19 AM

    Another blow to the Nuclear industry (Nuclear energy just can’t get a break the last few years). Apparently there is faulty metal forging in the parts of many of the French nuclear plants, and this is a going concern. Also, the French are still importing large amounts of coal for cheap power.

    __________________________________________________________________________

    France’s nuclear-energy champion is in turmoil

    Electricité de France has had to shut down 18 of its 58 nuclear reactors

    http://www.economist.com/news/business/21711087-electricit-de-france-has-had-shut-down-18-its-58-nuclear-reactors-frances-nuclear-energy

      Dec 04, 2016 04:33 AM

      5,000yrs of battery life: Nuclear waste-formed radioactive diamonds provide long-lasting energy
      Dec 2nd, 2016

      https://www.rt.com/uk/369020-nuclear-battery-diamond-scientists/

        Dec 04, 2016 04:07 AM

        Thanks again Excelsior. Compared to you, I am a verifiable dumbkin!

          Dec 04, 2016 04:13 PM

          Ha! You’re one of the wisest guys I know Big Al.

          The whole reason I found this site in the first place was because I respected what you said so much when I listened to you in interviews.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:09 PM

            Thank you Excelsior

    Dec 03, 2016 03:39 AM

    We Are Putting Off The Inevitable
    Dec. 3, 2016 – John Mauldin (9,181 followers on Seeking Alpha)

    Summary

    “Only two presidents in history did not see a recession, and they were inaugurated after single-term presidents.

    In every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency, there’s been a recession.

    This means there is a 100% chance of recession for the new president….”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4027987-putting-inevitable?auth_param=c9otd:1c45an9:1d87af8f66eac7adedcb6382b9a5b08c&uprof=45

      Dec 03, 2016 03:06 PM

      Agreed.

      “Since 1910, the U.S. economy is either in recession or enters a recession within 12 months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new president. Not every single election sees a recession, only every two-term incumbent change.”

      https://dailyreckoning.com/100-chance-trump-faces-recession-2017/

    Dec 03, 2016 03:07 PM

    I see 30yrs just hit 3%. Can’t wait for 10 years to hit 6. My TSP could use a boost.

    GH
    Dec 03, 2016 03:08 PM

    An oldie but a goodie, when we drew the long term trend lines for gold with high precision.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=1980-01-04&en=2016-12-03&&id=p63196525459&a=441277001

      GH
      Dec 03, 2016 03:12 PM

      JTL, if you’re lurking, I tend to think these trendlines trump the downtrend line from the top that you’re still waiting to see broken.

      Dec 04, 2016 04:26 AM

      Yep, ole’ Silver still has a little room to grow on Gold to get things back in more of a “median” range on the Gold:Silver ratio (something in the low 50s to high 40s to 1 on the ratio).

    GH
    Dec 03, 2016 03:00 PM

    $XAU:$GOLD — This sure says the gold bull is back in gear. Golden cross imminent.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p52470101502&a=479960133

    Dec 04, 2016 04:31 AM

    What other site can Michael Belkin be found on?

      Dec 04, 2016 04:42 AM

      This one (but its’ been awhile):

      http://kingworldnews.com/

        Dec 04, 2016 04:50 AM

        That’s odd, because Rick Rule, Peter Boockvar, Felix Zulauf, Marc Faber, John Kaiser and Brent Cook have all appeared on both KWN and the KER.

        Are certain speakers “captive” for Eric’s program or something?

          Dec 04, 2016 04:53 AM

          I think Dan Norcini mentioned to Al something along those lines a few years ago.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:54 AM

            Oh. Well that makes sense why Bill Fleckenstein has been holed up there.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:56 AM

            So much for the Cory Fleck and Bill Fleckenstein’s on-going show: “Fleck on Fleck”

            Dec 04, 2016 04:38 PM

            please elaborate on Fleck on Fleck if you would Excelsior.

            Thanks

            Dec 04, 2016 04:41 PM

            Yes he certainly did, Matthew.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:42 PM

            When Cory “Fleck” had interviewed Bill “Fleck”enstein in the past, I believe it was Ebolan that mentioned a good title for those segments could be:

            “Fleck on Fleck”

            Just horsing around really….

            Dec 04, 2016 04:44 PM

            But if Bill is a captive speaker for KWN, then it doesn’t seem he’ll be able to make any appearances here (like Dan Norcini or Michael Belkin).

          Dec 04, 2016 04:53 AM

          Here’s the most recent one I could find:

          Michael Belkin – September 22, 2016 – King World News:

          http://kingworldnews.com/michael-belkin-9-22-16/

          Dec 04, 2016 04:47 PM

          The list of folks who appear on both consists of folks who have a lot of confidence in themselves Perhaps the others don’t. I don’t know.

          I know, for a fact, that the promotions for Michael that we did were very successful.

          Here is an interesting story. Having Mr Savage on the program was really good for him, at first, by his own admission. Then after a few months the number of subscriptions new to him fell off. I was at that point that he decided that he did not want to be on our site. Kind of funny to both Cory and I as we put up with a lot of complaints about him and generally supported him.

          For some people, the word friendship has no meaning.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:08 PM

            Well it was good for the KER to bring on such an array of speakers and based on the responses back from people, there were just as many people that liked them both as those that may have disliked them. Same with Roger Wiegand and Peter Peter Grandich – they were a blessing to the site when they were here and offered their thoughts for the time their light was shining.

            Personally, I liked both Michael and Gary and enjoyed hearing their perspectives. It shouldn’t be necessary or expected for listeners to agree with everything someone says to feel like they bring value, and it is a shame that certain posters attacked them so heavily, or that they were so worried about subscribers that they didn’t see the benefits of true “Fellowship and Friendship.”

            Often times I learn a great deal about the position I hold by listening to people that hold differing views, or that may expect a different projection than I do. There are many times where I’ll post articles on here that I disagree with the whole premise or at least part of it, just to represent a different point of view as food for thought.

            Of course, there is a professional way of disagreeing though, where you still treat the other party with respect and can agree to disagree with out getting into insults and personal attacks. Unfortunately, there have been posters on here and guest speakers that didn’t share that philosophy, and obviously that is why they aren’t here any more. It’s sad when intelligent people can’t handle their emotions and destroy their interactions with others through lashing out.

            Regardless, thanks for all the new and old guests that you and Cory bring on the KER. It is a positive message radiating out into the investing marketplace, and there are many people that read and listen that don’t post here, because I talk to them privately. Your work is greatly respected and appreciated by many.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:38 PM

            The only people who we do not let on the site are those that we have reason to believe are dishonest. Regarding Mr. Wigand I had to sue him and I, in fact, won the lawsuit.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:18 PM

            Sorry to hear that Big Al.

            Well, life goes on, and just think of the all the positive friendships and great people we’ve all been exposed to due to the collective wisdom of the KER.

            Ever Upward!

            Dec 04, 2016 04:49 PM

            Big Al, it seems you are the kind of character that can surprise people, I must admit what you said about Roger Wiegand caught me off guard, but then you are a businessman and you must stand by your convictions. DT

      Dec 04, 2016 04:45 AM

      I know Michael has his own website, but he’s appeared at other outlets, so I’m not sure why he couldn’t pop on here as a guest.

      He sure nailed it on shorting many of the high flying stocks in late 2015 and early 2016, he nailed it on the huge out-performance of the the Aussie miners that would play catch up first (like St Barbara and Northern Star) before the rest of the pack even got moving, and in this interview on King World News, he called the reversal in Oil stocks when many were still so pessimistic.

      He was wrong on the stock market & dollar topping though, because the stocks did have another leg higher this Fall, and the Dollar just hit it’s recent highs. Keep in mind this interview was from July though. He did mention the appeal of Trump to the masses as well.

      Personally, my interest in Michael is his ability to spot undervalued miners and he is a damn good stock picker.
      ___________________________________________________________________________

      Michael Belkin – JULY 2016 Discusses Oil, Silver, Gold
      KWN – Jul 17, 2016

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1Lu6h9nU-8

        Dec 04, 2016 04:51 AM

        I also agree with Michael’s point about the Silver stocks outperforming the Gold stocks.

      Dec 04, 2016 04:51 PM

      Cory will be calling him about getting him to do some guest spots on this site.

        Dec 04, 2016 04:23 PM

        Cool. If Michael doesn’t want to then that’s on him, but it was just always interesting to hear his perspective, and by speaking, he gets more exposure for his newsletter anyway.

        You can tell the people that are truly passionate about the industry, economics, technicals, fundamentals, and that really have the spirit of coaching in their heart, from the ones that just want to sell subscriptions. Chris & Rick & Doc are here almost every day contributing their thoughts for free, and I’m sure Chris and Rick would appreciate more subscribers, but I also get the impression that like their daily chats and it helps them crystallize their thoughts as well.

        I’m continually impressed with the number of contributors that come onto the KER because they honestly love following the markets, helping other investors, and following the exciting stories in the resource and energy sectors, or currencies, or bonds, or stocks. I get the impression that Michael is one of those people because he has offered up so many stock ideas for free when interviewed on here in the past, but there is no doubt he wants to sell subscriptions too and he has a promotional focus of his work. I’m fine with that entrepreneurial spirit as long as they can just be a dude and come on and talk once and while and share some good thoughts. For goodness sakes, if Rick Rule can do so many interviews with folks, surely the newsletter writers can come down from on high and have a chat once in a while. 🙂

        It’s worth a shot to check, and Michael he does come back on the show hopefully all the posters won’t beat him up as a welcome back.

          Dec 04, 2016 04:35 PM

          Good point, Excelsior!

    Dec 04, 2016 04:34 AM

    Disclosure: I’m not a huge fan of the “Angry Geologist” and find him to be more pessimistic than even Otto, but both of them, (despite their “wet blanket” approach to peeing on everyone’s parade), do make good points about geological issues, stock valuations, and other potential log jams in permitting, jurisdiction, management, etc… They do also comment on the parts of a story that they like.

    Well here’s the latest from the “Angry Geologist,” where he is going after SilverCrest Metals – one of the most beloved Silver mining exploration stocks of 2016 and one of the top performers out of all the Silver miners this year.

    He does raise a few good concerns, that the marketplace has gotten a bit too far ahead of itself on this one, as most of the known mineralization doesn’t warrant the current market cap. It has been solely the enthusiastic expectations of continued discovery that has fueled the share price to such lofty levels. (but isn’t that always the case?)

    However, IMO, AngryGeo isn’t factoring in the premium that investors give winning management teams with a track record of delivering. They also purposely held onto these properties when SilverCrest Mines was merging with First Majestic. Even ole’ Keith couldn’t pry these properties away from the SilverCrest team, so obviously they saw something in the deposit that was very promising, and the marketplace anticipates further exploration upside.

    ___________________________________________________________________________

    Las Chispas – You’re only given a little spark of madness. You mustn’t lose it.

    Saturday, December 3, 2016 – The Angry Geologist

    “Silver Crest have been releasing some interesting results from Las Chispas, we’ve been getting a steady stream of results from the 1st phase of drilling and underground sampling programs, which has propelled them to current market cap of ~90M and they have raised $10M recently (link) to fund future exploration programs.

    For comparison – Regulus Resources, with Anta Kori (just containing 3.4Moz Au, 3 billion pounds of copper) have a market cap of ‘only’ $68M. So is Las Chispas any good?

    The very short answer – no, not really…”

    http://angrygeologist.blogspot.com/2016/12/las-chispas-youre-only-given-little.html

      Dec 04, 2016 04:31 AM

      Are there any other Silvercrest investors on here that have any thoughts as it relates to this Angry Geo missive?

    Dec 04, 2016 04:19 AM

    Dick Tracy.

    I just found a very interesting discussion about Northern Dynasty (NAK) on Stock Gumshoe. In reading the posters comments there, they believe that Marin Katusa and Doug Casey are pumping it, so that may make it move regardless of the fundamental picture we were discussing on Friday.

    I’ve gone and added in all their comments onto the bottom of our NAK discussion on the KER Friday market wrap if you are interested in reading those. Cheers mate!

    http://www.kereport.com/2016/12/02/weekly-market-close-doctor/

      Dec 04, 2016 04:29 AM

      P.S. – I just found another interesting article discussing the Platinum/Palladium demand and how one of the “gurus” feels that Platinum Group Metals (PLG) (PTM.TO) could have a very large run. I feel exactly the same way and have been loading up on it the last few weeks. I made big money riding it up into the summer months and unloading it, and I plan to take that same ride again, only much higher this time.

      Here’s a blurb from the article, and I’m going to try and post a link but not sure if it will work:

      _______________________________________________________________________

      “……. here Patalon is hinting about Platinum Group Metals (PLG, PTM in Toronto), which is currently ramping up production at the Maseve mine and has development plans for the Waterberg mine, both in the heart of platinum country in South Africa (though both are primary palladium mines, with a bit more palladium expected than platinum… which isn’t necessarily bad, palladium has been outperforming platinum recently and both serve most of the same end markets).

      You can see a pretty extensive investor presentation from Platinum Group Metals here[4], tied to the earnings release they put out just this week — it is indeed a “ramp up” producer, and it should be expected to be pretty highly levered to any big advances in the platinum or palladium price, partly because their mine won’t be at full production for a couple years and is fairly expensive. Platinum prices that drop much more would start to make the mine uneconomic, it appears, and I imagine that’s part of the reason why the shares have come down this year despite the relatively good news that they put $500 million or so to work in building this mine and are actually digging up precious metals out of the ground now, and will soon be selling them. They also did an offering for $40 million a month or so ago, which also hurt the share price.

      So yes, PLG is a $1 (ish — it’s actually at $1.83 at the close today) stock with an emerging platinum/palladium mine and some expansion potential. I don’t have enough deep knowledge of this particular company or its mines to tell you whether it’s a great idea or a crazy idea, but it is at least the majority owner and operator of a mine that is financed and built and will be producing platinum and palladium soon, and owner of another potential mine nearby, both of which are in one of the world’s two major platinum group metals producing regions (the other is in Russia, the two essentially have a duopoly on primary platinum and palladium mines with only a couple lonely exceptions out there, like the American Stillwater). My sense is that they’re pretty levered to palladium, so a big price spike over the next year or two should be really nice for their bottom line, but it’s only a $200 million company and it has a little tiny share price, so they could easily be buffeted by shifting waves of passion for platinum group metals if there are price spikes that send speculators looking for any stock with “platinum” in its name.

      I don’t know if platinum will soar above gold again, or if you’ll see mega-gains — but there is some real leverage potential on both the upside and downside for PLG (“downside” means “if platinum keeps falling, the stock could get crushed”). And this is a real emerging producer, not just a junior explorer, so there is at least some “there” there. And, as the ad also hints at if you make it that far in their presentation, PLG does have some experienced management — some of the folks who were behind big profits in MAG Silver, West Timmins Mining, and a few others, so that helps, partly because investors in the mining industry love to follow management teams who’ve had past success in building (and hopefully selling) mining companies in the past.

      So there’s your little miner for a weekend’s consideration — we can’t tell you whether Patalon will be right about this becoming a billion-dollar company, or going from $1 to $100, but if you’ve got any thoughts on platinum in general, or on Platinum Group Metals or any of the other miners in the platinum space from explorers to producers, please let us know with a comment below (Stillwater, North American Palladium, Ivanhoe Mines, Anglo American Platinum, PolyMet Mining and Norilsk Nickel are just a few other names that are likely to crop up in your research… or toss others on the pile if you like)….”

      Not sure if this will work:
      http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/private-briefing/friday-file-the-13-billion-gold-anomaly/print

        Dec 04, 2016 04:39 AM

        I’ve followed the Platinum & Palladium space for many years, and I truly believe that there are half a dozen really undervalued miners about to break out and some of them were found in that last sentence from that post above.

        ________________________________________________________________________

        “– we can’t tell you whether Patalon will be right about this becoming a billion-dollar company, or going from $1 to $100, but if you’ve got any thoughts on platinum in general, or on Platinum Group Metals or any of the other miners in the platinum space from explorers to producers, please let us know with a comment below (Stillwater, North American Palladium, Ivanhoe Mines, Anglo American Platinum, PolyMet Mining and Norilsk Nickel are just a few other names that are likely to crop up in your research… or toss others on the pile if you like)….”

        ______________________________________________________________________

        I’m definitely in to Ivanhoe, Polymet, and Stillwater, and have been considering giving North American Palladium a fresh start now that they imploded and restructured from that last above, but I agree that Platinum Group Metals is probably my #1 PGM pick of the litter. While I probably won’t be able to resist trading it on the way up, my intentions are to be in (PLG) (PTM.TO) for the next few years as a long-term hold.

        ________________________________________________________________________

        Platinum Group Metals – Corporate Presentation December 2016

        http://s1.q4cdn.com/169714374/files/doc_presentations/2016/dec/Platinum-Group-Metals-Ltd.-December-1-2016-FINAL.pdf

          Dec 04, 2016 04:42 AM

          I would also add a few more companies to that prior list (Platinum Group Metals, Polymet, Ivanhoe, Stillwater, North American Palladium)…….. The one’s I would add that are a big more speculative are Wellgreen Platinum, Group Ten Metals, Northern Shield, Wallbridge Mining, Panoramic Resources, Noront Resources, Atlasa Resource, and Platina Resources.

          Go PGMs!

            Dec 04, 2016 04:06 AM

            Here is a helpful map of where the Maseve Mine for Platinum Group Metals is being built at present in the Western Limb as the new kid on the block, and surrounded by a bunch of old mines that are already very deep and mostly mined out.

            It is really their second project (Waterberg) that animates me though up in the North Limb on the same trend that Ivanhoe has it’s Platreef Project. The grade up on that North limb is ridiculously high grade. What is interesting to me about Platinum Group Metals is that they have their Waterberg JV and the new Waterberg Extension (that they control).

            So really they have 3 projects if you consider Waterberg to be 2 separate projects.

            Check out the map below for more clarity:

            https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/23/12290461-1445593024661509-Fun-Trading_origin.jpg

            Dec 04, 2016 04:09 AM

            Here is a close up of the just the Northern Limb for a better view of Waterberg projects:

            http://platinumgroup.2014.33aws.com/file/2015/01/PTM_Bushveld_Complex_North_Limb_Map_20Jan15-site.jpg

            Dec 04, 2016 04:26 AM

            It is also interesting that both Ivanhoe and Platinum Group Metals intend to use robotic mining in many shallow pits (due to the near surface and high grade nature of the deposits) versus the deep human labor intensive mines found on the Eastern and Western Limb deposits. Using technology to enhance economics, and reduce the labor needed does 2 things – 24/7 work with no complaining or sick days, and greatly reduced South African labor union BS to contend with. = better costs, less people, less injuries, less strikes, less nonsense.

            I believe this give Ivanhoe and Platinum Group Metals a distinct advantage over their South African peers.

            For those that want to avoid South Africa all together keep you eyes on Wellgreen Platinum, Group Ten Metals (Wellgreen’s neighbor), Polymet (development stage with some prior infrastructure in place on the Duluth complex with Nickel/PGMs/Copper/Gold/Silver), Stillwater (Montana big wig in the PGM space and growing PGM recycling division), North American Palladium (destroyed, restructured, coming back to market for a second date), and look into Wallbridge, Panoramic, Noront, Atlasa, and Platina.

            ________________________________________________________________________

            I couldn’t end this PGM rant without mentioning the current drilling program for Northern Shield at Sequoi this month. If they hit pay dirt – then that stock is going to just explode.

            For those that missed what is developing with Northern Shield, scan up through the comments on this CEO room link below. The good news is that nobody has missed the ride on this one really.

            Yes, the initial move out of the gate happened once it got so much more coverage from Eric Coffin and Gwen Preston, but the work has really just begun. The team at Northern Shield has identified 4 main drill target zones from their VTEM work.

            The first one “Huckleberry” has a JV on it with South 32, but the drilling was only marginal low grade Nickel/PGM/Copper but still holds some potential for drilling next year.

            However, the 2nd target “Sequoi” is being drilled as we speak, and those results will be out in a few weeks. This is the target everyone is very excited about. (It is all the folks over at CEO want to discuss as far as PGM miners, and some have small fortunes on the line waiting for the drill results). I do have a position in place (just in case…..fingers crossed). If they miss with dusters, the stock may chop in half, but if they hit…….. look out!

            https://www.ceo.ca/nrn

            Dec 04, 2016 04:45 AM

            Atlatsa is actually operating in S. Africa for clarification. (they took over the old Anooraq Resources properties).

            Dec 04, 2016 04:02 AM

            You, Excelsior, are a valuable wealth of knowledge.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:02 PM

            Thanks Big Al. Just sharing what I come across here on the KER forum. 🙂

          Dec 04, 2016 04:05 AM

          Here is a helpful map of where the Maseve Mine for Platinum Group Metals is being built at present in the Western Limb as the new kid on the block, and surrounded by a bunch of old mines that are already very deep and mostly mined out.

          It is really their second project (Waterberg) that animates me though up in the North Limb on the same trend that Ivanhoe has it’s Platreef Project. The grade up on that North limb is ridiculously high grade. What is interesting to me about Platinum Group Metals is that they have their Waterberg JV and the new Waterberg Extension (that they control).

          So really they have 3 projects if you consider Waterberg to be 2 separate projects.

          Check out the map below for more clarity:

          https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/23/12290461-1445593024661509-Fun-Trading_origin.jpg

          https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/23/12290461-1445593024661509-Fun-Trading_origin.jpg

            Dec 05, 2016 05:22 AM

            Ivanhoe Mines says Globe and Mail readers are being misled by the newspaper’s story today about the company’s Platreef Project
            JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA–(Marketwired – Dec. 5, 2016)

            http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/ivanhoe-mines-says-globe-mail-readers-are-being-misled-newspapers-story-today-about-tsx-ivn-2180607.htm

            Dec 05, 2016 05:30 AM

            “Ivanplats, an Ivanhoe subsidiary, owns 64% of the Platreef Project. In conjunction with ongoing mine construction, Ivanplats has arranged for the relocation of informal graves from locations that have been identified on lands outside the perimeter of the active mine development site. The relocation program was implemented with the support of relatives and families of the deceased – and following extensive consultations, including with community leaderships – in full compliance with requirements established by South African authorities. The necessary official approvals were received for the relocation of graves.”

            “As Ivanplats advised The Globe and Mail last week, from the outset, Ivanplats has responsibly managed the graves relocation process with the appropriate dignity, respect and sensitivity. Ivanplats is committed to resolving any disputes in the same spirit, but also will defend its rights and those of directly affected families who support and have consented to the planned relocations of graves.”

            “Patricia Makhesha, Managing Director of Ivanplats, has commented, “Ancestors belong to their next of kin, not the public, and therefore it’s sad that people like Mr. Langa fail to respect the privacy that this matter deserves.”

    Dec 04, 2016 04:51 AM

    The most Imtportant geo-financial/economic interview or this Millenium -Greg Hunter Jim Sinclair on USAWATCHDOG.com

      Dec 04, 2016 04:07 AM

      Marty – what do you think about that Angry Geologist piece on SilverCrest up above?

        Dec 04, 2016 04:42 AM

        Took 30% of my 8000 ($.117) sh off the table @ both $2.40 & $2.88 and reloaded @ $1.60 & $1.40. Now with 14k.
        Thanks for the update, I appreciate constructive criticism.

          Dec 04, 2016 04:56 AM

          Good trading Marty. Well done sir. Yes, as stated, I believe the stock has received a premium due to the great management and exploration teams involved, the quality of the deposit, and likelihood of more upside exploration. Did it get a bit of ahead of itself? Possibly….but there are likely more discoveries to be made and I look forward to watching the story develop with keen interest. I’ve been a shareholder in the past (and may become one again in the future).

          All the best to SilverCrest and may your investments be prosperous Marty.

    Dec 04, 2016 04:54 AM

    Did pickup a stink bid on Silver One SLVRF 2400@ $.515

      Dec 04, 2016 04:58 AM

      Wow! You caught a nice bounce there. 😉

        Dec 04, 2016 04:50 PM

        I’ve been meaning to spend some time reviewing a number of Silver miners I’m not up to speed on and Silver One was in that group. Good Sunday project. Thanks Marty!

          Dec 04, 2016 04:04 PM

          I’m surprised no response to Jim Sinclair on Usawatchdog.com. A must listen, maybe more than once.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:29 PM

            Ditto Marty

            Dec 04, 2016 04:39 PM

            Just did. Thanks for the heads up Marty.

    Dec 04, 2016 04:38 PM

    Yup, the miners forecasted a bounce.

    Dec 04, 2016 04:14 PM

    Federal government blocks Dakota Access oil pipeline route
    JAMES MacPHERSON,Associated Press 18 minutes ago

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Sunday that it won’t grant an easement for the Dakota Access oil pipeline in southern North Dakota, handing a victory to the Standing Rock Sioux tribe and its supporters, who argued the project would threaten the tribe’s water source and cultural sites.

    North Dakota’s leaders criticized the decision, with Gov. Jack Dalrymple calling it a “serious mistake” that “prolongs the dangerous situation” of having several hundred protesters who are camped out on federal land during cold, wintry weather. U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer said it’s a “very chilling signal” for the future of infrastructure in the United States.

    The four-state, $3.8 billion project is largely complete except for the now-blocked segment underneath Lake Oahe, a Missouri River reservoir. Assistant Secretary for Civil Works Jo-Ellen Darcy said in a news release that her decision was based on the need to “explore alternate routes” for the pipeline’s crossing. Her full decision doesn’t rule out that it could cross under the reservoir or north of Bismarck.

    “Although we have had continuing discussion and exchanges of new information with the Standing Rock Sioux and Dakota Access, it’s clear that there’s more work to do,” Darcy said. “The best way to complete that work responsibly and expeditiously is to explore alternate routes for the pipeline crossing.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/authorities-conditionally-move-bridge-near-protest-132426831.html

    Dec 04, 2016 04:41 PM

    Gold took a nice hike up to $1186.60 on the Europe news and has since pulled back to $1180-$1181.

    The knife fight between $1180-$1200 wages on….

      Dec 04, 2016 04:45 PM

      This pundit on Kitco doesn’t think the Italian vote will have much effect. We’ll see….

      Italy Vote Won’t Really Help Gold; USD on Radar – Analyst
      Dec 02, 2016 – Adam Button Editor, ForexLive

      http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/1439/2016-12-02/Italy-Vote-Wont-Really-Help-Gold-USD-on-Radar—Analyst

      Dec 04, 2016 04:08 PM

      Italy’s resounding no lifts gold price
      Frik Els | about an hour ago

      http://www.mining.com/italys-resounding-no-lifts-gold-price/

        Dec 04, 2016 04:37 PM

        Ex, I am more interested in the price of copper these days, gold always gets a lot of attention but copper has really caught me thinking HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM! DT

          Dec 04, 2016 04:00 PM

          Ex, thanks for the information on Northern Dynasty, I think that if it is allowed to run to five dollars it will be hard to be taken over by one company, especially given it’s history with Rio Tinto and Anglo Gold. Given the nature of the deposit a lot of majors don’t seem to be attracted by poly metallic deposits, this stock will require a lot of money to develop. It gets very interesting considering The Trump presidency. DT

            Dec 04, 2016 04:38 PM

            Thanks for the heads up on it DT. Yes, all the focus on infrastructure may or may not pan out, but as the world continues developing, it is going to need stuff, and resources companies pull the raw materials out into usable form, so great deposits will continue to be valuable.

            The Pebble deposit is well endowed with about 5 different metals so a large commodity conglomerate could takeover the project or at least JV the project and would have the ability to move all the different concentrates. You are correct that not every miner would be able to pull off developing a more complex deposit like that though.

            The October update on the legal situation at least indicates they are trying to come to some agreement that works for all parties involved. That is what most investors are waiting on, but of course, there is more opportunity now with the unknown factor. I’m definitely going to be watching it closer for potential trading opportunities.

          Dec 04, 2016 04:41 PM

          Yes, Copper just took a wild trip up, and it would not surprise me to see it cool back off a little bit and stabilize near $2.25-$2.50 and then start it’s next leg higher in 2017.

          Regardless, there are many Copper miners that can do just fine at the current prices or a bit lower, and those do have my interest.

            Dec 04, 2016 04:14 PM

            Copper price: Warnings over US trade with China, Mexico
            Frik Els | about an hour ago

            http://www.mining.com/copper-price-warnings-us-trade-china-mexico/

            Dec 04, 2016 04:17 PM

            “….However, Moody’s believes the latest leg up for base metals (bellwether copper is up more than 25% over the last eight weeks) is not sustainable. Carol Cowan, Moody’s Senior Vice President says most metals markets remain in surplus and “supply-demand fundamentals have not improved meaningfully”:

            As a result, we expect base-metal prices to be under pressure in 2017, though we do not expect prices to retreat to the lows seen in late 2015 and early 2016.”

            “All base metals, with the exception of Zinc, remains oversupplied and global inventories have also remained stubbornly elevated (again zinc is the exception) according to the report.

            While increased infrastructure spending should benefit the sector, particularly inside the US, the impact of the presidential election for the base-metal industry remains unclear says Cowan:”

            Dec 04, 2016 04:54 PM

            Zinc is the exception.😎😎😎 That’s why zinc stocks are an exceptional play.👍👍👍

          Dec 05, 2016 05:21 AM

          Copper rally to fade, but gradual price uptrend to continue
          5TH DECEMBER 2016 – ANINE KILIAN

          http://www.miningweekly.com/article/copper-rally-to-fade-but-gradual-price-uptrend-to-continue-2016-12-05

    Dec 04, 2016 04:02 PM

    Renzi to Resign – Italy Follows the Global Trend – Votes NO

    We are witnessing what a Private Wave is all about. The Italian Referendum came in on point with the NO vote at 59.4% against 40.6%. Our model is now four for four with BREXIT, Trump, Hollande in France exiting the election, and now Italy. We will see the same defeat for Merkel.

    What politicians do not grasp is that they have destroyed the world economy with taxes and regulation. Enough is enough. In Europe, the single currency has totally failed because it required a single debt. The refusal to consolidate the debts has been the death of the Euro.

    This is all playing out into a major dollar rally for like a game of musical chairs, it’s the last place to park money.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/renzi-to-resign-italy-follows-the-global-trend-votes-no/

    CFS
    Dec 04, 2016 04:07 PM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydlemm6URvQ

    Jordan Roy-Byrne Sunday 12/4

    Dec 04, 2016 04:28 PM

    The Canadian dollar is at significant resistance but I think it will get through it. Then things will get loonie…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CAD&p=W&yr=5&mn=7&dy=7&id=p59484423399&a=426052108

    Dec 04, 2016 04:37 PM

    So far so good…

    On November 27, 2016 at 10:09 am,
    Matthew says:
    I have a feeling it is going to reverse from the current 7.14:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77154476965&a=489887095

    Dec 05, 2016 05:21 AM

    I think you may get that gold falling out of bed moment Excelsior. May well happen before the fed meeting too. That spells potential double trouble.

      Dec 05, 2016 05:26 AM

      To be clear, I’d prefer Gold not fall out of bed; but I’m prepared for the reality that it could go down and test close to the Dec lows from last year and make a double bottom. When gold closed near $1177 on Friday, and rallied over $1180 last night, then I thought there was a chance it had consolidated for relief rally. Waking up this morning and looking at the gold at $1167 has me more concerned for a slide down.

      We’ll see how it goes, but time for investors to stay vigilant of any sudden moves.

        Dec 05, 2016 05:45 AM

        There has been a bright spot this morning though:

        Mexus Gold US (MXSG)
        $0.1849 up + $0.0349 (23.27% gain)

        Trimming it back and Winning 🙂

          Dec 05, 2016 05:07 AM

          52 Week High Today | 0.193
          52 Week Low 1/21/2016 | 0.0015
          % Off 52 Week High (4.20)%
          % Off 52 Week Low 12,309.40% ***

          *** Are there any other mining stocks up over 12,000% off their lows this year?

            Dec 05, 2016 05:44 AM

            Mexus Gold (MXSG)

            52 Week High Today | $0.235
            52 Week Low 1/21/2016 | $0.0015
            % Off 52 Week High -10.64%
            % Off 52 Week Low 13,993.96% ***

            *** Let me update that question:

            Are there any other mining stocks up close to 14,000% off their lows this year?

          Dec 05, 2016 05:45 AM

          Darn, I should have waited to trim (but I’m usually an early trimmer 🙂 )

            Dec 05, 2016 05:48 AM

            Ryan – you have to be making a small fortune. Congrats!!

        Dec 05, 2016 05:24 PM

        For what its worth i would rather it didnt continue this slide down either excelsior but we cant let dreams get in the way of reality right? Am a firm believer in pm fundamentals. Just have to bide our time

          Dec 05, 2016 05:37 PM

          Agreed Ozibatla. It’s best to deal with the lay of the land that the market serves up, instead of what we would like to see. That is why I like to mix technical analysis with the fundamental backdrop of a sector, sub-sector, or individual stock.

          Cheers!

            Dec 05, 2016 05:10 PM

            Here here! Rational thinking is a priceless trait

    Dec 05, 2016 05:57 AM

    Excelsior Mining Corp Releases Feasibility Study with Post-Tax NPV of $807 Million
    (Marketwired – Dec. 5, 2016) – Excelsior Mining Corp. (MIN)(EXMGF)

    http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/excelsior-releases-feasibility-study-with-post-tax-npv-of-807-million-tsx-venture-min-2180649.htm

    Dec 05, 2016 05:14 AM

    The Northern Miner podcast – episode 39: Matt & Mickey’s global commodity special ft. Mickey Fulp
    MATTHEW KEEVIL DECEMBER 5, 2016

    http://www.northernminer.com/news/northern-miner-podcast-episode-39-matt-mickeys-global-commodity-special-ft-mickey-fulp/1003781324/

      Dec 05, 2016 05:46 AM

      Jeffrey Christian: Gold price to see ‘modest increase’ in 2017
      TRISH SAYWELL DECEMBER 2, 2016

      “Trish Saywell of the Northern Miner sits down with Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group, a commodities research, consulting, financial advisory and commodities management firm in New York. He founded the company in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co. and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company. Christian sees a slight increase in gold price for 2017.”

      http://www.northernminer.com/news/cpm-groups-jeffrey-christian-shares-outlook-precious-metals/1003781307/

    Dec 05, 2016 05:10 AM

    Global Gold Mining Production

    An Interactive Map – Where Does the Gold Come From?

    http://www.usfunds.com/interactive/global-gold-mining-production/#.WEWROPke27F

    Dec 05, 2016 05:12 AM

    I am hoping the initial breakout in oil fails. I sold out Friday and will wait to buy the dips.