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Epoch Times – China in Context

Cory
December 12, 2016
Below is the Epoch Times look at the current situation in China. With all the news focused on the US we have to remember it’s a big world out there and China is another very large player…

 

Dear readers,

The Chinese Communist Party loves predictability. To that effect, they preach stability as a virtue and encourage the United States and other countries not to rock the boat—or else they won’t be invited for a slice of the lucrative China market (and the temptation proves alluring, despite how many big Western companies have gone into China and failed).

To make a quick buck, the United States has long adhered to key demands from the Chinese regime. Stability has a hefty price tag: The United States has a trade deficit with China that runs in the hundreds of billions. Untold numbers of Chinese have been killed in human rights abuses as the United States has demurred from shaming and pressuring the Party internationally in a manner that might have saved lives.

The Chinese regime, however, might not continue to enjoy forecastable international relations for much longer.

Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States next month, but already the president-elect has made several gestures that will induce sleepless nights in many a Chinese official.

Trump picked up a telephone call from President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan on Dec. 2, the first open diplomatic contact between an incoming American leader and a Taiwanese leader since President Richard Nixon decided to recognize the Chinese communist regime instead of the Republic of China.

On Dec. 11, Trump suggested in an interview that the United States doesn’t need to be bound by the “One China” policy—a longstanding arrangement between the Chinese regime and Taiwan in which they recognize there’s only one China, but differ on who is to rule it.

Given that Trump has thus far staffed (or plans to staff) key cabinet positions with men of hawkish disposition, the nature of U.S.–China relations could start becoming much more uncertain in the coming months.

But if Chinese leader Xi Jinping has other plans for the Communist Party and China, the uncertainty Trump will bring could work to Xi’s advantage.

The year 1985 saw the swearing in of Ronald Reagan for a second term as U.S. president. Across the Atlantic, Mikhail Gorbachev became Communist Party general secretary. Over the next five years, Reagan and Gorbachev ended the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, in the city of Muscatine beside the Mississippi River, the governor of Iowa met a 31-year-old Chinese agriculture official with a bowl haircut …

Larry Ong

 
Terry Branstad, the longest serving governor in U.S. history, was picked by President-elect Donald Trump to be U.S. Ambassador to China, writes Larry Ong. Branstad happens to have known Chinese leader Xi Jinping for three decades, and both have kept in touch occasionally—on the topic of agriculture—over the years. In picking Branstad, Trump seems to be signaling that he wants to keep negotiation channels open with the Chinese regime.
 
Trump definitely will want to keep communicating with the Xi administration after receiving a congratulatory call from Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen. The general consensus of enlightened opinion is that Trump made an oafish move that destabilized diplomatic relations that have existed since 1979, when President Nixon broke with the Republic of China and instead recognized the People’s Republic of China. But what if Trump was signaling that he is changing the game with China, asks Stephen Gregory. A little more boat rocking sends the message that the United States can talk tough to an oppressive regime, and it will ultimately benefit the people of both countries.
 
Li Tianxiao, a senior political commentator with New Tang Dynasty Television, suspects that Trump’s Taiwan call was also intended to assess Xi and serve as an informal audition for the job of secretary of state. And only one candidate on the shortlist, California Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, came up with the right answers to the Taiwan question. The job is now expected to be given to ExxonMobil chief Rex Tillerson, though as of this writing no official announcement has been made.
 
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s deeply unpopular top official Leung Chun-ying announced that he wouldn’t be running for re-election next year, writes Larry Ong. Epoch Times had learned about a month ago from an authoritative source that Leung had lost the favor of the Xi administration and thus wouldn’t get a second term—and could even be “dealt with.”
 
Chinese author and economist He Qinglian argues that China cannot lead globalization in a world where Trump is U.S. president, citing three reasons—the economic bubble, China’s insufficient military capabilities, and the weakness of the yuan.
 
The impending U.S. interest rate hike could have a far-reaching impact on China’s economy, writes Fan Yu. If the People’s Bank of China is pressured to tighten its own monetary policy, it could exacerbate ongoing capital outflows from China and cause problems for debt-laden companies.
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