The Dow:Gold Ratio back to 2007 levels
For our market recap we cover a number of different markets but start off with a big picture look at the Dow:Gold ratio. It can be very dangerous trying to pick a bottom in markets that are falling but the overall narrative continues to be dollar up PMs down.
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What’s going much higher over the next few years?
The Dow plus the s&p. So gold has no hope of catching up to it.
What is your case for a much higher DOW and S&P?
Just momentum and cash that keeps coming into the markets from all over the world. People want to own US assets and alternative investments like real estate are in a bubble but keep going higher and not worth buying for a 2 or 3% return from rent. I looked into an old bldg near the Toronto airport thinking it might be about 650K since it pays rent of 2800 per month and they put it up for 1,150,00. That is about a 2.4% return and no way of getting positive cash flow on it. There are major corporations paying 5 to 7% in dividends and will continue paying for longer than I will be around.
I am in Canada and I only buy blue chip US stocks and I get a nice exchange gain as a bonus with each gain.
If it isn’t in your hand, you don’t own it.
At least you make money instead of watching your gold go down in value to 1000.
Most re brokers are a joke when figuring cap rates
BMO has been offering 7% over 3 years.
I thought that was an indication rates were about to go up.
And comparing with Paul Ls example of real estate, why?
We will need far more immigration than people would put up with to keep real estate prices levitated.
From right after the 2nd war its been real estate that made gazzillion airs, now its getting to be time its somtin different.
Real estate prices are out of wack in many areas. Prices will correct ..rental rates will correct . As rates rise ,so will foreclosures ,if they have not locked in rates.
To many people buy to much house
How many people need a $10,000 gas stove
I did not expect Platinum to break below $900
Palladium only ,$190 different
Crazy…..simply crazy
The dollar is not strong! The Euro is pathetic. (And dying.)
China dumps Treasuries: Foreign Central Banks liquidate A Record $403 BILLION in U.S. Paper
Japan tops China as largest holder of US Treasury debt
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER – AP – 55 mins ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Japan surpassed China in October as the largest foreign owner of U.S. Treasury securities, the first time the countries have swapped places in nearly two years. Total foreign holdings fell for a fourth month.
The Treasury Department says that total foreign holdings dropped 1.9 percent to $6.04 trillion in October. Foreign holdings of Treasury debt are down 3.9 percent from a recent peak of $6.28 billion set in March.
Fed has 8 biggest US banks shift loss burden to investors
Thu Dec 15, 11:42AM CST
WASHINGTON (AP) — The eight biggest U.S. banks will be required to build new cushions against losses that would shift the burden to investors. The action by the Federal Reserve was the latest bid by regulators to reduce the chances of future taxpayer bailouts.
The Fed governors led by Chair Janet Yellen voted 5-0 Thursday to lay down the new requirements. The mega-banks must bulk up their capacity to absorb financial shocks by issuing equity or long-term debt equal to certain portions of total bank assets. The idea is that the cost of a huge bank’s failure would fall on investors in the bank, not on taxpayers.
The Fed action comes as Washington braces for changes to the 2010 law that reined in Wall Street after the financial crisis and the Great Recession. President-elect Donald Trump urged during his campaign that the Dodd-Frank law be dismantled, and his transition team has set that as a goal. Republicans, who overwhelmingly opposed Dodd-Frank, will control the White House and Congress in January and see an opening to go after key parts of the law — such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Those that are investing in Finance and Bank shares should NOTE THE CHANGE in risk.
Unlike the West, India is giving significant interest on savings accounts. e.g.
RBL Bank:
7.1% p.a = Daily balance above Rs.10 lakhs
6.1% p.a = Daily balance above Rs.1 lakh
5.1% p.a = Daily balance upto Rs.1 lakh
Yes Bank:
6% p.a. (On Savings Account balances below Rs.1 crore.)
Kotak Mahindra Bank:
6% p.a
Lakshmi Vilas Bank:
5% p.a = Daily Balance Upto Rs.5 lakh
6% p.a = Above Rs.5 lakh
There is only one asset on the planet that can pay off 20 Trillion in debt.
We spent 2 Trillion fighting a war over it.
You don’t spend 2 Trillion with out expecting a return.
An interest rate of 0.25% = 50 Billion a year.
3 more hikes = another 150 Billion a year.
Yellen, Are you telling me the US Taxpayer can stomach 200 Billion in interest?
Who is going to buy the debt? China? Saudi Arabia?
Neither.
The only way out is import cheap oil (iraq) and export expensive oil.
The Trump rally is based on what exactly? Optimism about the future earnings.
Earnings from where exactly?
Who has spending power exactly?
Kevin O’leary says the Swiss are selling US Stocks. They are 33% in cash.
The Fed is not going to be able to raise 3 more times in 2017.
The game ends when the buyers of the treasuries stop showing up.
Then the fed will buy the debt themselves.
That stops when the holders of us debt outside the usa say not so fast yellen.
The 1/10th of 1% needed by the Bricsto veto the Fed being able to buy their own debt with printed money will materialize by spring according to jim rickards. The bank DB is the trigger. The Euro is going to tank. The Yen is going to tank. The dollar will soar just before its going to tank. This whole game is about to be rewritten. I am not so sure america gets to author the next chapter. Unless they have a stash of something that isnt public that can erase 20 trillion, either somebody isnt getting paid or we are going into currency war 3.0
India is the example. The test case of a war on cash. Not going well for the little guy.
Venezuela has people smuggling bitcoin miners into the country to take adv of free electricity and the people are risking imprisonment to make digital currency which they smuggle out of the country to buy food on amazon and then smuggle the food back into the country – that is how messed up venezuela is.
This game only works if there is a buyer of the debt. When gold capitulates, the jig is up, because on the next run up, the inventory or lack of physical in the usa and the gold owed to DB and others will have vanished and the comex paper market and by extension the banking frauds will be exposed an the only way this ends is not pleasant for people who think they own paper that is saleable to another party.
Sooner or sooner we have to face the reality that reality ain’t reality its a bamboozle shamboozle and we been mugged in our pajamas by apes in suits who ate all the bananas.
UVXY and SPXS and SDOW are too tempting.
I think if the Swiss are in CASH and they don’t like the earnings potential for Q! ’17
maybe I will follow suit, they are good at timing, being the invetors of the swiss watches and all.
Happy Holidays.
Latest from a Harry Dent email:
No matter how irrational this market is, I admit I’ve gotten the timing wrong.
The markets have defied all of my research, and all of the indicators I follow closely. They’ve even defied dozens of other indicators that have proved accurate before, that I looked to when it became clear that my tools were failing.
The big question is, how high does this go?
At this point, I can only offer a guess. This market is completely unpredictable and irrational. I recently just saw a sentiment indicator for Wall Street bullishness/bearishness that suggests stocks could go up as much as 20%.
My best guess is that this rally peaks somewhere between late February and early March or into mid-May, at the latest. The Dow could go as high as 21,500 and the S&P 500 as high as 2,500.
Poor guy is still waiting for his Dow 3000. He will have trouble selling his subscriptions and may have to try his hand at stocks if he is competent enough.
This is the first time I have posted CNN as a source, but this is interesting…..
CarlIcahn talk about Trump:
http://ht3.cdn.turner.com/money/big/investing/2016/12/09/carl-icahn-trump-market-rally.cnnmoney_1024x576.mp4
A. Hoffman audio blog 176:
https://www.milesfranklin.com/blog/
Cory has really become a great analyst of the markets. Keep up the good work guys!
BREAKING!! Julian Assange- FULL Interview with Hannity 12/15/16
Published on Dec 15, 2016
Julian Assange appears via phone on Sean Hannity at 4:07 PM .
Barkerville drills 4.1 m of 56.31 g/t Au at Cariboo
2016-12-15 09:13 ET – News Release
Mr. Chris Lodder reports
BARKERVILLE INTERSECTS 11.36 G/T AU OVER 12.36 METRES AND 56.31 G/T AU OVER 4.10 METRES IN ISLAND MOUNTAIN PHASE I DRILLING
Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd. has released additional results from the continuing phase I Island Mountain exploration drilling program at the company’s flagship Cariboo gold project. Three drill rigs are currently operating on Island Mountain, with a fourth rig on Barkerville Mountain testing the 800-metre-long KL zone gold-in-soil anomaly.
Almadex drills 497 m of 0.33 g/t Au at El Cobre
2016-12-15 09:19 ET – News Release
Dr. Morgan Poliquin reports
ALMADEX HITS 268.50 METERS OF 0.20% COPPER AND 0.46 G/T GOLD WITHIN 497.00 METERS OF 0.16% COPPER AND 0.33 G/T GOLD IN HOLE EC-16-16 AT THE NORTE ZONE AND PROVIDES FURTHER EL COBRE PROJECT OVERVIEW AND TARGET DISCUSSION
It is obvious, but it is interesting…..
The amount of proven oil reserves depends on the cost of accessing that oil and is thus strongly dependent on the actual price of oil.
While the higher prices will start to help U.S. producers, the price crash in oil and gas has devastated our proven reserves. The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil proved reserves declined 4.7 billion barrels (11.8%) from their year-end 2014 level to 35.2 billion barrels at year-end 2015.
U.S. natural gas proved reserves decreased 64.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), a 16.6% decline, reducing the U.S. total to 324.3 Tcf at year-end 2015.
Dang, Doug Casey hits the nail on the head…but I don’t think Mr. Big Al Korelin would agree…
Let the hoi polloi cast a meaningless vote, so they have the illusion of being in control. Instead of seeing themselves as subjects, they’ll think they’re “we the people,” who actually have some say in what happens. That way they’ll pay their taxes willingly, enthusiastically sign on to aggressive wars on the other side of the world against people they know nothing about, and generally do as they’re told. Because it’s supposed to be patriotic. “Democracy” is a much more effective scam for controlling the plebs than kingship or dictatorship.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-15/doug-casey-sell-all-your-bonds
It doesn’t matter who agrees, Doug is 100% right.
Referring to the above quote, of course.
I would have to agree
Pleasant illusions die hard.
466
00:31:39
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Opinion: Your Social Security cuts are already on the way
Published: Dec 15, 2016 1:50 p.m. ET
466
Cost-of-living adjustments will soon be a thing of the past, thanks to Republicans
By
BRETT
ARENDS
COLUMNIST
A Trump voter was on Twitter the other day begging the orange oligarch not to cut her benefits.
She had very little money, and depends on Social Security and disability income to live, she said. Please, please don’t cut them!
You might wonder why this woman voted for Donald Trump — and the rest of the Republican Party — but her past tweets offer the predictable answer. President Obama is a “black Muslim,” or maybe a “Muslim Christian.” She hates “fancy-pants elitists” and “crooked Hillary” with her “rich friends,” and they should all be “in jail.” Oh, and Trump is going to “Make America Great Again.” She’s now “praying” that Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan won’t throw her out on the street. Good luck with that.
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If inflation averages 3% a year, a pretty modest amount by the standards of history, you will lose 27% of your purchasing power within a decade.
There won’t be a damp eye in the house when this ignorant and racist woman loses her benefits and has to work as a greeter in Wal-Mart until they carry her out feet first. And, with excellent timing, the Republican leadership on Capitol Hill has just laid out how it’s going to do it.
Well the Republicans are now starting to work on reducing entitlements….
(They are forced to do this or the U.S. will be bankrupt before they can kick the can much further down the road.)
Sam Johnson, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee’s subcommittee on Social Security, has just introduced legislation to start cutting Social Security for the rich, the middle class and the poor alike, starting as early as 2018.
Using standard spin, of course, ironically, the bill to cut Social Security is called a bill to “save” it. The House GOP has just laid out its blueprint for Social Security, and it amounts to cuts, and more cuts. The deepest cuts, for now, will be for wealthier retirees. But the middle class and the poor will not be spared.
According to calculations made by the Social Security Administration’s chief actuary, it will cut future cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) for retirees each year, starting December 2018.
Currently, once you start getting Social Security, your benefits rise each year, in line with the standard rate of inflation, known as the Consumer Price Index. In the future, they will rise only in line with a fancy new rate of inflation, known as a “chained” index. The new rate is lower than the old rate. Your benefits will lose purchasing power over time.
Anyone that did not understand it was a Ponze scheme…..has not been paying attention
Latest excelsior interview
http://criticalinvestor.eu/analysis/copper/critical-qa-stephen-twyerould-president-ceo-excelsior-mining
Trevali news keeps getting better
http://www.trevali.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=773654
Armstrong – Why I Oppose George Soros
Soros, I believe, is trying to do the same thing as Karl Marx. He is funding an experiment to alter society into what he thinks it should be. I believe in Adam Smith and the best way to help society is to rid it of people like Soros who think they have the right to reshape society into what they believe it should be. The invisible hand works fine and it is the essence of nature. People like Soros admit they do not believe in God, so that means they also assume the universe is theirs to manipulate and play the role of God. People like Soros always want to rule the world through central planning. It is just not possible, for humanity is the inventor driven by the mother of everything — necessity — never the rulers.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/why-do-i-oppose-george-soros/
There is a world of difference between Marx and Soros, most notably with regard to motivation and intent. Do you seriously believe Soros is trying to improve the condition of mankind?
Federal Cost of Living Adjustment COLA Update
2017
Social Security 0.3% increase first in 3 years.
Federal Employees 5.7% will be voted on in congress in 2017
http://www.fedsmith.com/2016/09/08/2017-federal-pay-raise-and-cola-update/
Drain the swamp.
CFS, you say the US $ is not strong. That may be right fundamentally, but in todays misconcepted world of smoke and mirrors, it is indeed very strong. In the race to the bottom, the US $ dollar is lagging, thus giving it an underlying strength in a world of lies and illusions.
If we look at the moves since the economy peaked and gold bottomed in 1999, the dollar has not been very strong on a relative basis. Even the Canadian dollar has held up better, as its performance versus gold shows. Gold is up 304% vs the loonie since ’99 but it is up 347% vs the US dollar. This is despite the USD’s recent strength. So it looks like it was just doing some catching-up.
Yeh I was referring to its so called strength in recent times. It appears as though the $ is basing good support in the 100 region after already building very strong support in the low 90s. Its going to take one helluva punch to knock it through both those support regions
There is a difference between strength in the US dollar (i.e. purchasing power) and strength in the dollar index (the relative value of the US dollar compared with other currencies). I have not said the dollar index is not strong.
But CFS, you did mention the Euro in the same post. Im not being picky or agumentative here, just trying to clarify. I wholeheartedly agree that the US $ is weak in terms of purchasing power
Tried a swing trade on Argonaut Gold and got the shaft this morning with bad news.
http://www.argonautgold.com/news_events/news/news_release/index.php?&content_id=309
Obviously someone new this was coming and started bailing out early.
Trump told the While house staff to get rid of the prayer rugs and crescent moon signs ….bye bye Obmamy….have a nice holiday.
Oh Merry Christmas
Time to open up his school records….
Still time to join oil. USO was a great buy around 11.15 to 11.30. XOP is still cheap and has not yet responded to the oil rally.
Still holding most of my oil juniors from Dec 2015,YGR.TO for example.
The Energy Report (5/12/15)
Four Canadian Juniors Poised to Gain in the Oil and Gas Recovery: Angelos Damaskos
Yangarra Resources Ltd. (YGR:TSX.V), which operates in the Cardium, one of Western Canada’s most economic oil regions. The company recently announced a 114% increase in its 2014 reserves while keeping finding and development costs of developed producing reserves at $26.36/bbl, with a recycling ratio of 1.6 times. Its 2014 production/replacement ratio was 179%, while its Proven and Probable reserves life index increased to 34 years. These are exceptional results. Companies such as Yangarra are not only able to survive in a low-price environment—they also have long-term viability and the long-term potential, if prices recover, to grow production dramatically over the next couple of years.
Just one big game for the insiders………….oil going to be a big hit in 2017 ….game is starting over once again. Time to rethink some investments. Armstrong has some great points concerning the game that has been played, and will continue to be played.
I am predicting a WTI run to 89, by 2020 🙂
You could be corrupt
Make that correct…dang phone
corrupt, 🙂
Right or wrong, I just made a purchase of physical gold and silver.
Yesyerday’s volume on the SGE was the biggest in history.
I will post a graph shortly.
SLV:GLD found support in the bunched-up daily moving averages and is now poking through some fork resistance. The chart is not negative at all from a slightly bigger perspective…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p34922257629&a=475491593
Miners in Peru speeding up copper output to seize better prices
The biggest ever one day trading volume for gold on the SGE yesterday was 39.58 TONNES.
See graph posted above.
Irish TONY needs to sign up for this one….. ,he is a great disruptor,…..plus a chance to win a million bucks.
A conservative critique of Agenda 21 and the loss of freedom it proposes:
http://www.ukcolumn.org/sites/default/files/pdf/your-life-in-their-hands.pdf
All those so called experts have been claiming a 1 to 1 Dow/gold ratio in the future which can never happen. Gold will have to rise to 20,000 and it is going much higher over the next few years.