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Optimism is driving precious metals down

Cory
December 16, 2016

With Rick Ackerman this morning we focus on gold and silver. Rick shares some of his targets for both metals and discusses why he thinks investors continue to flock to US equities. Optimism continues to abound.

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Discussion
74 Comments
    CFS
    Dec 16, 2016 16:22 AM

    Sprott update, Rick Rule:
    https://youtu.be/DOynq5QNIy4

      Dec 16, 2016 16:39 AM

      Thanks,CFS, i always enjoy listening to Rick Rule.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:29 AM

    One analysts says gold is in a 20 year bear market.

    We have 5 years down, 15 to go.

    Be patient and keep stacking!

      GH
      Dec 16, 2016 16:51 AM

      Do you have any analysis of your own, James?

      Oh, wait, I almost forgot since I haven’t heard it today. D. F. Drain the Swamp. Could you please tell us that story again?

        GH
        Dec 16, 2016 16:54 AM

        Oops. I jumped the gun, and commented before reading farther down. Lol.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:36 AM

    Don’t why investors take such big risks in the PM’s. I sold BP for a nice gain on Tuesday and bought back the next day $2700 cheaper and now today I am up over $2,300 again. Plus many other countless trade done for a few hundred profit on each with USO, XOP. GE, Intel. I am getting a 60 cent dividend too this week on BP and about 90 cents on Shell.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:51 AM

    Paul L,

    With all due respect,What do you mean?

    “Don’t why investors take such big risks in the PM’s.”

    Fortune favours the bold, where else can you find these gains?

    Personally,investemts in these slow and heavy investments like BP,USO is not for me,you will grow old and die Before you get wealthy 🙂
    Thanks

      Dec 16, 2016 16:59 AM

      An error. I type quickly and my eyes don’t focus too well. I mean why take big risks when there are easier ways to make money.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:01 AM

      ‘The profits add up if you can sell within pennies from a top and buy pennies from the bottom. Over 30K gains for November to now dealing with blue chips and oil.

        Dec 16, 2016 16:48 AM

        Nice,Paul L
        Thanks 🙂

        Dec 16, 2016 16:53 AM

        People should do what they’re good at and comfortable with. My GMX and USA profits far exceed 30k for the last month.

        I was buying back USA shares today and yesterday and now it looks like I should have been more aggressive. It just popped from .275 to a .295 bid and .30 ask. My average price today is .2755

          Dec 16, 2016 16:05 AM

          I am planning to get out of everything and just trade Uso, xop and bp as I can accurately predict these and I therefore have a very high probability of turning a profit on each trade.

          Dec 16, 2016 16:48 AM

          Matthew,

          Agree wiith,”People should do what they’re good at and comfortable with”
          I was thinking,if Paul Lhad put all of that cash in the pm junior missile Dec 2015/Jan 2016,he could have made many times the 30k.
          Not meant as critique,BTW
          Thanks, a nice weekend to all of you traders/investors 🙂

            Dec 16, 2016 16:14 PM

            Yes, he probably would have made far more money but he would have had more stress to go with it.

            Dec 16, 2016 16:14 PM

            Have a nice weekend.

            Dec 16, 2016 16:28 PM

            Thanks,Matthew

          Dec 16, 2016 16:14 PM

          There is no liquidity in penny stocks. You cannot sell in one second but have to wait it out for a big enough bid. I remember years ago crashing a gold stock when a big bid came in for 100,000 and I hit that and started a big multi day drop. I only buy stocks that are $30 plus per share.

            Dec 16, 2016 16:53 PM

            That’s right, even the 2.17M shares that USA traded today only came to $520,000. Then there’s the big spreads to make things worse.

            Dec 16, 2016 16:18 PM

            Years ago I used sit and watch the bid all day every minute for the next fool to put in a big enough bid so I could get out. I had to stay hidden just like on an ebay auction where you jump in the last 5 seconds. If you put in a big sell in at a fixed price it encourages others to start dumping their shares ahead of you at a lower price.

            Dec 16, 2016 16:07 PM

            That’s usually the case but there are times when placing a big order can cause others to pounce. When things have been very good for long enough that most are pretty sure of themselves, there will be a few players with more money than experience that are just waiting for the “next fool” to offer enough of what they want AT market. You’d never know that they are lurking if you’re using an iceberg or just feeding the market one small order after another. Offering big round blocks appeals to institutional guys, too.

            Most retail interest comes near the end of any move of any degree. Which reminds me of AXU raising $30M at around $8.00 just before it topped and began the trek to 22 cents.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:03 AM

    $600 paper Crimex price only…..

      Dec 16, 2016 16:05 AM

      Armstrong says $1000 low

    Dec 16, 2016 16:13 AM

    Oh come on Rick/ guys!!! This is getting ridiculous. $600 gold while it’s $2800 in India? This is the total opposite of Bo Polny.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:39 AM

    Al, Cory, Rick – this was a fascinating discussion, one of your best, for many reasons.

    Rick, I haven’t listened to you in a good while.

    This discussion really really needs to be parsed very carefully.

    Because of that I am not at this time able to comment.

    b
    Dec 16, 2016 16:50 AM

    Its about time we got some rational discussion.
    Lets see the site ban Rick now. lol

    Of course there will be objection to my use of the word “rational”.

    My guess, and thats all it is obviously, is we bounce up around $1000.
    I always like Ricks $968.

    But, Dent or Bob could be right, there are reasons gold is a 5-10% allocation in a diversified portfolio.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:53 AM

      $968 , wasn’t that Tweety’s number

        Dec 16, 2016 16:55 AM

        Rick has gotten into the eggnog.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:04 AM

    China has captured a US drone and that is lifting gold as per bloomberg.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:11 AM

      You don’t buy that, do you? Gold has been pounded and oversold for the last month – and that’s after having already been oversold for two weeks in October. The MSM loves to explain things with stories that keep people from figuring out reality. Whether that reality has to do with cycles or government/Fed policy.

      The MSM, financial or otherwise, is the public relations arm of the big banks and the government(s) that they own.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p87348055854

        Dec 16, 2016 16:25 AM

        Sometimes gold just needs an excuse like a news story to turn but the effect is not likely to last. It is an underwater drone.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:30 AM

    Oil gearing up for the next move above 52. XOP is a great buy right now.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:41 AM

    Funny how gold goes up on rumors of bad news, true or not true.

    Just goes to show you when people are scared they go to gold.
    Maybe they just aren’t scared enough.

    So Matthew are you saying this pop in gold was not a reaction to the china news but was due to oversold, that’s how it reads to me?

    Dec 16, 2016 16:43 AM

    To quote Rick

    “Gold looks like hell.”

    And I will add Silver looks like the worst part of hell.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:47 AM

    So Rick when I said many weeks ago are you sticking to your $850 gold call you were very silent, like you never made it.

    I was even lambasted by some of your groupies.

    So now are you back to calling it?

    Now only that but now you are even gold lower, will you stick by that.

    Also I asked you repeatedly about your DOW 3000 call, again silence.

    Now has the perma bear become a raging bull?

    I think you are a little late to the party.

    Al,

    You,mentioned gold will not look good for a long while.

    Is the official position of this site now gold bearish?

    You also mention these newsletters that are starting to look ridiculous.

    Haven’t I been saying this for weeks?

    I call it draining the swamp.

    Why don’t you back me up and call off some of the hounds?

      Dec 16, 2016 16:58 AM

      You were lambasted because you don’t know wtf you are talking about, not because he didn’t have the lower target. His method gives targets that have nothing to do with opinion. He stopped talking about the lower targets when he did because they were no longer in play. Do you understand?

    Dec 16, 2016 16:49 AM

    Major rally starting now in XOP. Will be much higher in a few days. From 41.75 to around 44.

      GH
      Dec 16, 2016 16:58 AM

      Paul, I consider you to be way better at trading these than I am, but I got out of GUSH a few days ago at 116 and 120, and it doesn’t yet look so tempting to me to get back in, even though oil itself has had a nice day.

        Dec 16, 2016 16:03 PM

        It is took risky to touch that 3x etf. There is plenty of leverage to the oil price with XOP. You do not have stay up at night and worry. It is headed to 44 to 45 and in January to the 47-48 area. BP is up 2% but XOP is flat but should start moving soon.

        Dec 16, 2016 16:09 PM

        That 11/30 gap is huge and the momentum indicators now favor sellers but it could bounce from here (but I kind of doubt it). That’s what a stop loss is for.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p77540428018

        GH
        Dec 16, 2016 16:38 PM

        Good comments both, thanks 😉

          Dec 16, 2016 16:49 PM

          The market is having a negative influence on the etf and it is too late on a Friday so no move coming yet but will open much higher on Monday when oil should be clearly above 52.

            GH
            Dec 16, 2016 16:18 PM

            Definitely seems plausible.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:02 PM

    He stopped talking about the lower targets because they were no longer in play

    NOW THEY ARE BACK IN PLAY I GUESS

    Do you understand?

    Dec 16, 2016 16:09 PM

    “His method gives targets that have nothing to do with opinion”

    That’s priceless.

    Did he buy his methods in a Cracker Jack box or mail order?

    Their his methods based on his algos.

    His logic called for lower target of $850
    Now his logic is calling for it again.

    It was on, then it was off, now it is on again.

    Is that so hard to understand , even for you?

      Dec 16, 2016 16:21 PM

      You’re a complete idiot, James. I give up.

      Mark Twain had great advice for people like you:

      “It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.”

        Dec 16, 2016 16:30 PM

        Or as Oscar Wilde put it something like: So and so has lost the art of conversation but unfortunately not the power of speech!!

        Dec 16, 2016 16:36 PM

        “It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.”
        Hilarious 🙂

        GH
        Dec 16, 2016 16:42 PM

        Idiocy or trolling is my question.

        James “Dunning-Kruger” the Lesser — I’ve never encountered a better example of the phenomenon.

          Dec 16, 2016 16:42 PM

          +1,000,000

          Dec 16, 2016 16:53 PM

          See his moronic post below @ 12:49!

    Dec 16, 2016 16:42 PM

    Ah Pete, knew you wouldn’t be too far behind.

    Woof woof

    Dec 16, 2016 16:46 PM

    Always lurking,James

    Dec 16, 2016 16:49 PM

    I guess I come from a different background.

    I wrote a computer program to handicap horses.

    I create the logic and feed it the data.

    The logic has all the rules to pick a winner.

    Based on variables, constraints, fundamentals… that in my opinion are important.

    I wrote the code, and crunch the numbers.

    I put in things like speed, class, distance, track, weight…I throw it all in a sausage machine and it spits out “the number 5”

    I then tell everyone my method is picking the number 5 horse.

    The number 5 runs dead last.

    “Someone stops me in the grandstand and says what happened to your number 5 horse he ran dead last.”

    “Oh” I reply, “that wasn’t my opinion, only my method”

    Ridiculous, truly fn ridiculous.

    You can’t get away with sh$t like that at the track, where results actually do matter.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:29 PM

      James,that sounds like a great sausage machine

      “I put in things like speed, class, distance, track, weight…I throw it all in a sausage machine and it spits out “the number 5” ”

      Why don´t you throw in some pm names and Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels,SMA,EMA BB bands cycles etc,and see what it spits out.

      If you are lucky,you could have a Winner!

      Not investment advice,James
      Have a great weekend

    Dec 16, 2016 16:49 PM

    woof, woof….seems like James HAS lost the power of speech after all.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:00 PM

    GH, Im curious to hear your analysis

      GH
      Dec 16, 2016 16:16 PM

      I posted it last week, had a back and forth with Spanky, Matthew and Robert M. chimed in.

      Unlike you, I don’t feel the need to say the same thing over and over and over and over and etc…

    Dec 16, 2016 16:01 PM

    JTL’s mouth is moving, he just hasn’t said anything. Ever.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:23 PM

    Mega allocated bullion fund story to break shortly. Andrew McGuire and Jay Taylor: Upside breakout in gold imminent.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ3Yj9QPOp8

    Dec 16, 2016 16:31 PM

    I have to keep saying the same thing because there’s still a lot of bots that must be hard of hearing. Or in the deacons case dull of hearing.

    ANDREW MCGUIRE AND JAY TAYLOR MIST GO
    MORE SWAMP CREATURES

    you see the message is the same but the names are always changing.

    Hey deacon, if you believe this BS come to Brooklyn, I have a bridge I want to sell you.

    Hey RM, your “cheap” silver got a whole lot cheaper.

    b
    Dec 16, 2016 16:42 PM

    Gotta disagree with the “bobs cheap silver got cheaper”
    it did hit the 15 level and could again, but to me, thats not a whole lot cheaper, I guess it is to traders.

    I havnt checked the production cost of silver in awhile, but the price wont stay lower than that for too long.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:48 PM

    % wise it’s about 5%
    If that were stocks they would be pissing themselves

    But you could be right about it not staying that low for too long.
    Then again it could get hit more into single digits.

    If JP Morgan has the silver market cornered there’s
    no telling how low they want to bring it and for how long

    Dec 16, 2016 16:07 PM

    In the 5 weeks since gold and silvers head fake rally immediately following the election, there has been no relief rally at all in the pms market. The various weekly and monthly charts look terrible. Its just continuing to slide down unabated. How much more oversold can the pms get before at least pausing on their trip south?

    Dec 16, 2016 16:22 PM

    Like Matthew says I give up. James is going down the rabbit hole of sheer lunacy.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:42 PM

    wheres the lunacy?

    I’m all ears

    GH
    Dec 16, 2016 16:47 PM

    Gold is right on significant support on the weekly chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10109423793&a=404702608

    Will it hold? I have no idea! But I’m definitely getting into a buying mood.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:50 PM

    Archdeacon – that was funny. I got to admit.

      Dec 17, 2016 17:01 AM

      Thanks James – I believe Matthew’s piece is right. Anxiety is rife both in the States and here in the UK, although over here they can’t articulate what lies at the base of their anxiety. People are atomised as never before and lonely as hell. Increasingly a love of money (or of seeing money as the only solution to life) compounds their loneliness.
      Best, A

    Dec 16, 2016 16:57 PM

    Cory, since you subscribe to Avi’s service I know you’ve seen his long term SPX and his long term HUI charts. Since both charts speak of a bull market in the near term (and HUI in the long term) it tells us something must happen to cause both to go up. I still don’t think the HUI chart has bottomed yet. But we know it will and start charging higher. SOMETHING is coming. We just don’t know what it is. But the charts know.

    Dec 18, 2016 18:50 PM

    Sign of the times my friend! Both historically speaking we are due for another BIG war (WW) and biblically speaking.. war is coming.. (as well as earthquakes, famine, etc).