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A different take on the precious metals

Cory
December 16, 2016

Today we get Doc to take a closer look at the precious metals and respond to some of Rick’s lower targets. In all fairness to Rick he did state that the sub $1,000 targets for gold are very much an outside shot. We also discuss what could drive gold moving into 2017.

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Discussion
60 Comments
    CFS
    Dec 16, 2016 16:03 AM

    From a fundamental point of view, investors will NOT take profits in the general stock market for TAX reasons.
    (Unless they are forced to)

    If sentiment changes, investors will move into precious metals for protection in the New Year, as the EU shows signs of failure.

    Gold purchases on the SGE are currently at record high levels.
    Platinum purchases in China are also high.

      Dec 17, 2016 17:34 AM

      Shanghai exchange gold price has a 4%premium over London, which is very high. The delivery is at record as well.

        Dec 17, 2016 17:04 AM

        Obviously western gold is moving into china at high rate.

    CFS
    Dec 16, 2016 16:08 AM

    I don’t understand American policies with regard to Russia any more.
    Russia CEASED to be a communist country 20 years ago, so why is it considered to be anti-capitalist America?
    Also, it has actually given up territory it used to control. That is hardly being “aggressive”.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:13 AM

      Industrial military complex …we have way too many hawks in congress .,making money on war

        Dec 16, 2016 16:14 AM

        Drain the swamp

          Dec 16, 2016 16:17 AM

          Government is a profit center for the lifers

          Dec 16, 2016 16:28 AM

          Okay, GLUG, GLUG, GLUG, and GLUG!

            Dec 16, 2016 16:55 AM

            Don’t get greedy, leave some for others…. 😉

      GH
      Dec 16, 2016 16:49 AM

      Jerry’s point is a good one.

      It’s also because American foreign policy is based on achieving global hegemony. Same old game–never let a power rise in Eurasia, because once it advances too far, western elites fear the tables will be turned.

        Dec 16, 2016 16:54 AM

        Thank you …….and your point as well is a good one.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:45 PM

      It would seem America is destined to despise Russia, regardless of what is actually transpiring in front of their eyes.

      All global superpowers crash and burn eventually. I just wonder though if America is planning a transitional move to extend it power and authortiy over the world a little longer… Ie: a one world government type scenario.

      The way greed and money has consumed this world is truly insane. And so are those who condone it.

      “Power corrupts, ansolute power corrupts absolutely”.
      – Lord John Acton.

    b
    Dec 16, 2016 16:24 AM

    $1115,$1090,$1055/60,
    we break that $1055/60 and $975 is in play.
    Then comes $900-$800 in play, if that breaks all our friends laff for the rest of our lives.

      Dec 17, 2016 17:54 PM

      Sub-$1,000 is clearly a possibility and one look at a 10 year chart almost screams the big round number that $1,000 represents.
      Algorithims and high freq. trading almost gaurantee we get really close to $1,000 and possibly lower. (Fwiw, $940-$875 has been my guess for awhile.)

      I think there’s too many promoters that are so emotionally invested that they can’t even conceive or admit too themselves or their followers that they’ve been horribly wrong in this downturn that’s headed towards $1,000.

      I saw Bill Holter’s recent article and his weak reasoning and response to Armstrong’s sub- $1,000 gold article recently.
      Guy’s like him have their backs against the wall of credibility and he needed to get out in front of what Armstrong stated in his usually logical way. His logic is sound and he sounds rationale.

      On one hand, Holter finds comfort in what Armstrong had to say about silver. Holter and people like him are grasping and hoping for any silver lining to feel good about or to show their followers that there’s still hope that silver isn’t tarnished indefinitely. (Fwiw, I think we see silver hit low $12’s)

      And then Holter goes on to say that $1,000 isn’t possible and will not happen. Anyone with two eyes who can read a chart and saw gold already hit $1048 over a year ago clearly has sound ground to reasonably see that might be possible again. And they would be right to show concern.

      Holter sought to put a fire extinguisher to their logic by slamming Armstrong while at the same time telling him he was smart about silver.
      So which is it Bill? Is Armstrong an idiot or is he wise? Do you or the other pumpers realize Armstrong is calling for $5000 gold at some point within the next decade?

      It seems no one wants to acknowledge that Armstrong actually recognizes manipulation/clipping takes place or that he’s ultimately bullish on gold.
      And then there’s the schmucks out there who actually mock Armstrong for being incarcerated (illegally btw) because they can’t handle the fact that he’s not a mindless permabull.
      But if the guy had been jailed by the DOJ and he was a permabull he would’ve been hailed as some type of goldbug legend who stood up to the system for what he believed in.
      But nevermind that he thinks $5000 gold is coming because he’s a bearish jailbird in some clowns mind.

      Holter also went on to say that Armstrong, who btw is amazingly brilliant in his historical comparisons and analysis, that Armstrong was mostly wrong about golds valuation vs. the dollar during the 1930’s gold act that FDR initiated.

      Holter conveniently leaves out the fact that gold was been revalued AFTER it was confiscated and that the dollar theoretically was weaker by approx. 70% because of golds revaluation later.
      But, so what? It’s not like there was any direct effect on the dollar or their gold stack because THEY NO LONGER OWNED ANY GOLD and no one saw any return on their gold or experienced a loss on their dollar as far as any inflationary pressure due to Holters weaker dollar theory.
      Holter then went on to comment or imply how inflationary of a period the great depression was and how wrong Armstrong was. Are you kidding me?
      U’mm, Bill…it was called a depression because of the deflation…not inflation from a weaker currency.
      And if you asked anyone who lived during that period most people were hurting for paper money and in fact $1 bought quite a bit back then during that deflationary period. People back then DID NOT EXPERIENCE a sudden 70% devaluation of their money. That is fact.

      But what do I know? I’m just some objective guy online with no emotional investment that finds the constant mindless and sometimes obviously phony permabull fake analysis that’s gone on to be a sickening display of greed and ego throughout the metals blogosphere.

      Do the pumpers out there really believe that no one can look at a chart and see $1000 sitting right there and that there’s no chance it comes close or breaches it?
      At some point people wake up and realize their being taken for as useful idiots in someone elses obsession that revolves around gold and doomer collapse scenarios.

      At this point, all the promoters are on the hot seat and when/if gold pierces $1000 it’s game over (and it is a game) for guys like Holter, Polny, Turd etc.

      What will they say then about Armstrong? That he actually believes that gold hits $5000?

      The anti-Armstrong crowd basically dislikes him because he’s not a mindless permabull and that he’s been right while they’ve been wrong.
      It’s as simple as that and it’s childish behavior from those with the shrillest voices who are making themselves look bad while mocking others for being right only because they can’t handle being wrong.

      Kind of like what Hillary’s doing…it’s always someone else’s fault but never their own behavior or the lack of substance that most objective people can see right through. Yep, blame others.

        Dec 17, 2016 17:35 PM

        Re: “The anti-Armstrong crowd basically dislikes him because he’s not a mindless permabull…”

        You’re dead wrong, DPH. Some of us know for a fact what he’s wrong about and that calls the rest of his stuff into question. Separate from Socrates and his cycles expertise, he’s said some really dumb things.

        His most confident supporters know the least.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:38 AM

    In order for gold to ever touch something as low as Rick’s lower numbers, we will have to solve all the problems facing this nation and the world in general.
    These include debt levels of our Gov’t and consumers, World bank issues like those in Italy especially, the criminal element still allowed to fester in our big banks, the income disparity which has gone on for 40 years, the absolute hatred exhibited by our two political parties towards each other along with the distrust of government, no matter who is in office. Add to this the problems of N. Korea, the whole Middle East, North Africa and Iran along with Pakistan and China, Russia, and on and on.
    Until these issues take a back seat in importance, Doc’s outlook seems as logical and any out there. Just MHO again!

      b
      Dec 16, 2016 16:21 PM

      Why silverdollar? Its not like we didnt have the same issues when we used “sound or real” money.

      People have a belief that what we use as money fixes things, sure some things get “fixed” and fixing things brings about other challenges.

      Gold doesnt have to do anything. its a 5% asset of a diversified portfolio.
      I like to think I keep it in perspective.

      Whats the value of gold when the Russians begin producing it by the tons from coal?
      We already have what? 70year 170 year supply above ground? I forget.

      Fundamentaly, gold has nowhere to go but down, only a herdthinking goldrush can drive the price up, and we may have seen that twice (in my lifetime) already.
      Why do ya think so many people say suff like “$10k you gonna get rich”?

      I have no idea which way gold goes, but it wont surprise me whichever the direction.

      As for up up up, buy buy buy. check whats been happening for the last 6+ years “blogs” and “gurus” have been saying that.

      Its an idea not to let “traders” fool ya, ya can “trades” anything.

      Lets see which way it goes from here.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:42 AM

    Sheriff Joe……there is forgery on Obama’s birth certificate

      Dec 16, 2016 16:43 AM

      Seems his mommy was not white

        Dec 16, 2016 16:44 AM

        Info on aol ,

          Dec 16, 2016 16:48 AM

          Info also on utube

            b
            Dec 16, 2016 16:32 PM

            I saw that Jerry, interesting.
            Doesnt mean anything tho.

            For anything like that, that needs to be done, it means hanging alot of people.
            Around here we should all know the list (pretty much anyway).
            And nothing will be done.

            I like monarchy for government, not gonna happen, but one world government might.

            Im beginning to believe I might be in favor of a one world government, people are just plain stupid to rule themselves.

            Which is the one thing that stops democracy from working.

            People are plain stupid, choice between uranium and thorium? Lets use uranium! lol
            People here still want to invest in it.
            Sure, lets invest in our own destruction. lol

            This species needs to be ruled, if we are not, we will exterminate ourselves…..free will and all.

            Hawkings has determined how much time we have left, he figures we have a choice, get smarter or find another planet.
            Invest in space travel. lol

            Dec 16, 2016 16:45 PM

            b.,
            birther issue did not set well with Trump, they made him look like an ass, ….Trump has a memory like an elephant they say, if so, he is going to get even with the morons.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:00 PM

      35 days remain and …..all heck is going to break out…Hilly ,Billy and Barrick pay back is headed their way. …jmho

        Dec 16, 2016 16:04 PM

        Barrack’s last $70 Million tax payer funded vacation starts today … have Merry Christmas

      Dec 16, 2016 16:34 PM

      I believe President Duterte of the Philippines knows all about Obama’s precise ancestry!!

    Dec 16, 2016 16:55 AM

    Anyone get in on that dip on ASM today? I have been wanting to gobble up more at 1.25 or better. Got some 125s yesterday. Those 118s today would have been nice!

    Dec 16, 2016 16:16 PM

    The USA shares that I bought today are already up 11%.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:38 PM

      Now +14.55%

        b
        Dec 16, 2016 16:53 PM

        I checked the chart, did that ever tank.
        Now I could be wrong, but if I recall, usa was one of the ones that group of people would pump the heck out of.
        I was part of it, it depended where you were on the list for when you got the info.
        it worked tho, a gauranteed win, I was far enough up the list I guess.

        It didnt really sit well with me so I stopped, but it did give me a look at of of the methods used to pump shares.

        Not saying it was usa, just that their shares were used….if I remember correctly.

          Dec 16, 2016 16:49 PM

          I don’t know anything about that type of history but it was one of my top three performers for 2016. I bought a lot of it right into the .055 low in January despite the fact that it was still losing close to $5M per quarter. I “knew” it would work out if I was right about silver but it did cause me more stress than buying IPT into its 11 cent low – that was a no-brainer.

          USA really didn’t perform unusually during the bear market considering how its peers performed and its situation at the time.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:25 PM

    The last GOLD dupe make a BONE !https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0ajcoGuewE

    Dec 16, 2016 16:12 PM

    It may have been this episode, that someone said ‘something [China, Russia] needs to go bump in the night’ to scare gold higher. Instead of one of those two countries, how about one of the weak links breaking in the Euro chain? That could also make gold spike. Or would they rush to the dollar and that hurt gold ?

    On another note, I agree the main stream media is eroding their own credibility by unfairly bashing Trump. Even NPR does it !

      GH
      Dec 16, 2016 16:33 PM

      NPR is propaganda for the genteel, ‘sophisticated’ crowd. Kinda surprised me when I figured this out, back around the time the US invaded Afghanistan.

      That the corporate media (NPR has corporate sponsors too) is losing credibility with a great many people is sweet music to me, since they don’t deserve to have any credibility.

      Fake news–are we supposed to forget who sold us the wmd in Iraq story? Plus how many other wars, while simultaneously demonizing Putin as an aggressor? Who has been responsible for more terrorism, and death of innocents, during the last 50-70 years than the US? Okay, maybe Stalin and Mao give the US competition, so at least there’s that.

      All aided and abetted by the fake corporate media.

        Dec 17, 2016 17:46 AM

        So true GH. Clearly they are trying to make our next target of mass destruction based on a Russian connection. Who believes Russian would leave finger prints in this email hack stuff.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:15 PM

    Anyone playing UVXY? Averaged my 30 @ 15.50 down six times to 9.38. Total loss of $3.42 in principle. Thanks Robinhood. I could not trade like this on Scottrade. Scott would have charged me $91 in commissions using this average down strategy and after funds clear they would bump my cost average back up to 15.50. I am using the same strategy on SQQQ, SDOW, and SPXS.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:59 PM

    Per Harry Dent email. He looks at anything that falls and sends out an emergency alert to sell subscriptions. He has give up on his crazy Dow 3000 target.
    ECONOMY & MARKETS | November 12, 2016
    Dear Subscriber,

    We’ve warned readers why we believed that gold would face a massive collapse.

    And right on cue, its plunge has begun.

    So what should you do if you have any gold holdings… and how long do you have before the yellow metal plummets to $750?

    The answers are here.

    Harry

      Dec 17, 2016 17:42 AM

      I hate Dent and hope he goes to hell. His predictions have been so wrong. They are not even funny. I am finally adding to my PM position I was lighten up in the summer.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:31 PM

    Why Was O’s Presidency unsuccessful, Hillary lost but the finger of fate had been pointed a long time ago. We must agree that most matters of policy wait on the decisions of the White House. guidance from that quarter was out of touch with reality. Jerry flippantly mentioned the costs of vacations, but real guidance could not be expected. There were vital problems clamoring for the attention of the executive. The high cost of living, the breakdown of business prosperity and increase of unemployment, a disastrous foreign policy, and a White isolated in thinking and thought from main street, which ultimately destroyed the middle class. DT

    Dec 16, 2016 16:34 PM

    Thought-provoking. I too am beginning to think that Mr. Trump will not be inaugurated. Or is this just a distraction? Who knows, as we are exposed to “worse case scenarios” on a seemingly daily basis. We shall see I suppose.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:29 PM

    I don’t know why people think Trump isn’t “bought out” already, having two Goldman Sachs people in his cabinet as it stands. I thought that was what Trump was supposedly getting away from.

      Dec 16, 2016 16:34 PM

      Good point. It seems he considered some people for cabinet positions that are long-term “insiders”. Maybe a case of “keeping enemies closer”. Perhaps the whole drama is for public consumption and to then reinforce our faith in the process when Trump actually gets inaugurated. And then, leads us down the path as intended by the string-pullers, albeit at a slower and more agreeable pace.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:36 PM

    It is nice to have political discussion without name calling, insults and long rambling supercharged diatribes.
    Keep this site in check, Big Al. It is one of the best out there.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:46 PM

    Its the status quo guys. Invariably, people involved in wall st regularly weasel their way into the white house. Doesn’t matter whos president, there is a system that shows the nations leader answers to big business and corporations.

    I suppose one could say that the white house is for sale to the highest bidder.

      Dec 17, 2016 17:41 AM

      As much as I want to resist what you are saying, out of hope that things can be for the better, I believe that you are correct. Well said.

    Dec 17, 2016 17:44 PM

    Cheers Rand. I wish I was incorrect too for the same reasons. However it would be naive to think our leaders want to help the people only.