A technical outlook for Gold in January
A special Kitco audio Doc and Cory take time to look at the gold chart with a focus on what we will see in January. With gold continuing to either be in over sold territory (daily chart) or moving into an over sold position (weekly chart) we are due for a bounce. There are also a number of other indicators that are discussed including the Commitment of Trader Reports.
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Quality analysis as usual, Doc and Cory. Always appreciated.
We need to ban guns AND lorries.
GCC weekly chart is headed for a shakeout. Look at the weekly chart with the 50 and 100 WMA. Does anyone really believe they are going to let GCC smoothly rise above the 100 WMA? I think we can expect a massive shakeout below the 50 WMA before GCC is allowed to rise. Should start very soon.
Spanky, thanks for that chart—I’ve not looked at that one before.
That chart is not bearish to my eye, Spanky. Neutral in the shorter term, and somewhat bullish longer term.
The sharp downtrend from early 2014 was broken, and a marginal higher high set. Now it’s drifting sideways-down, caught between the 50 week SMA and EMA. Likewise caught between downtrend lines from the 2014 top passing through the 20.80 top and the 20.24 top. Etc. This chart’s way too busy, but you get the idea.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63403505867&a=432047953
I should have said neutral to mildly bearish, shorter term.
When I see a sharp rise that doesn’t fall back equally sharply, even with important moving averages bearing down on it, that indicates quiet strength to me.
Here’s another way-too-busy chart. What I see is GCC working its way through various forms of resistance, and nearing timing band for another significant move, whether up or down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66235652010&a=494657532
Doc and Cory,
Any thoughts on Gary Savage’s latest blunders including banning members who become combatant?
D.S. I generally stay away from that sort of thing. I did the same thing when Gary and Avi got into it in the past. I let other chartist results speak for them as I do with mine. I often don’t predict lows/highs of asset classes since that’s like putting your neck in a noose because eventually the chair is kicked out from beneath you. I’ll disagree with other’s views when it’s obvious to me on the charting techniques I use but I don’t like to get into personailities.
Appreciate your time sir.
Might be just me but I dont see much interest in my watchlists pot or gold.
Usually when we get a move up on a 1 minute chart shares move up.
Not today and if they do, they drop back pretty quick.
Well I hate to say i told you so. Gold stocks continue to fall today and technically look like crap. Many have broken down technically….
Cash is great. Yes nothing goes down in a straight line….a bounce is near?
Wheres all the dudes that called for a DOW smash constantly for the last 2 years??? LOL
If you bought some of these gold bug / pumpers BUY call lately you lost your shirt.
For the record gold mining scorches the earth destroying habitat and waist diesel producing carbon. Then we can hire someone to stand around protecting it….Ridiculous.
Gold bugs have gold dust for brains.
Play safe!
Doc,
With all due respect, sincerely…on this date 1 year ago did you envision and see gold going to $1380 and then back down to $1130?
James, more then a year ago, I talked about a U shaped recovery for gold. This fits in with that feeling. I did see gold rebounding and mentioned that at the end of 2015, however I didn’t expect the highs we saw this year. I really don’t see it taking out of the lows of December 2016. I mentioned when everyone was going gaga over the move higher that they could expect a significant correction lower and if you remember I was talking about a 1250 price and then a 1225 price. I mentioned that when we got down to 1225 there would then be, technically, more clarity on the direction from there. When we got there, I mentioned that the odds were we would go lower. This price doesn’t surprise me but the extent of the move up did. The U shaped move for gold is still in place unless it takes out the December 2015 low. Thanks for your question.
Saying stuff like that is sacrilegious around here. lol
Anyone saying short has been the way to go plum got run off.
Bugs can tend focus on personality instead of the message.
Gold should run up again, unless it gets outlawed.
Which is possible, Modi has done as much by limiting the amount a person can own.
But indian people really dont have anything else to move to.
Thats gotta be the trial for what happens else where.
Dont see anything else making any sense.
bs, b.
One person got run off, and your argument as to why is contradictory: Was it his message of ‘short’? Or was it his nasty personality?
I have never found anyone to be “nasty”, only HH did I find sorta, “a bit much”.
Your referring to Bird but he wasnt the only “golds goin down” person disliked here.
And Bird, was never “nasty” to me, maybe because I was never “nasty” to him?
Best “drop” caller for gold we ever had around here.
I followed from the beggining concerning Bird, he drank a bit much once and let off steam, which he apologized for, others would not accept that apology and continued with attacks. Of course he is going to shout back.
I had no part in it, I just watched, after a bit I defended Bird for a couple reasons.
Right or wrong, the site lost a great drop caller that had some excellent analysis of events.
Personality became the issue, people should have “let it go” and focused on the opinions.
So, I warn someone to prepare for what could be coming if they insist on saying golds headed south.
I dont like losing different views. Thats all I figure Im doing.
That’s all behind us now, thankfully. Not worth going into.
I just object to your saying that it was because we don’t tolerate the short viewpoint. Spanky has been quite bearish, and no one’s had a problem with him. Unlike James, he offers insightful arguments and evidence, and it is appreciated.
B, that’s your extremely biased view of how things were with Bird. Most here do not agree with you because they didn’t take sides. They clearly saw that Bird was a trouble maker that wouldn’t quit. Worse than that, he constantly put words in others’ mouths to purposely misrepresent their views so that he might look better. He made every difference of opinion personal and he did so angrily. You didn’t mind because he left his fans alone.
Ya NOW people tolerate the short viewpoint, no choice now.
When Bird called a drop to the day, it would drive bugs bonkers, the attacks were guaranteed, but Bird was quick witted and some of his retorts were high larry us.
I got some good laffs from those….friendly exchanges of viewpoints.
All in good fun, good comradery really.
But as you say GH, really not worth getting into.
You”ve got one thick skull, b. His calls didn’t bother anyone. His personality did. As for his calls, none were actionable and most were wrong. He was bearish at every major low and changed his tune on a whim. His DUST call this year was a massive failure.
Yes, really not worth getting into.
Not good comradery at all except, I guess, for you. ‘To itch their own’ 😉
Matthew we’re in total agreement over the bird issue. Some of his earlier name calling was little short of obscene.
of course it wasnt “comradery” gh, I thought that was kinda obvious.
Mat, again with the insults, and Birds calls not actionable?
I acted on many of them, just because you didnt doesnt mean they were not actionable.
I could just as easily say your comments are not actionable too.
Simply because I dont act on them.
He did miss a big turn in dec?jan? Thats true, he also missed a couple minor ones.
So? I havnt seen anyone whose guesses give them the right to throw the first stone.
Turns was not his strongest point, drop calls were.
His analysis was always worth reading as well, not too many could keep up with him actually.
On a more positive note, from mining.com
BMO now sees gold prices at $1,175 an ounce next year, down significantly from the $1,413 an ounce it previously predicted. In 2018 the price of the yellow metal will improve moderately to $1,250 an ounce. That forecast is also $100 an ounce below the Canadian bank’s previous prediction.
Funny, b. You never miss a chance to call out my (fact-based) insults but didn’t mind it one bit when Bird did it, and he did it much more harshly, constantly, and without provocation.
So each time you claim that the problem was his bearishness, you are proving my claim that you have a thick skull.
wow, you really dont see it do you.
Bill,
I might be retiring from draining the swamp.
It sounds like you are the perfect candidate to take my place.
You don’t see Burry buying gold. He use to like it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-current-holdings-change-212952780.html
Who cares what Gary Savage does.
I fought him for years when everyone was on his side
I never was James.
Or you can go with Casey LOL They came out with this at the top. Go figure.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/back-hurricane-doug-casey-warns-gold-will-go-higher-most-people-can-imagine
Bill,
Your hired, you got the job!
I am stepping down.
Good luck, there are a lot of swamp creatures and the swamp is moray, crowded and deep
James, you should go to Washington with THE DONALD and drain the swamp.
Its not possible Doc.
The planet is the swamp!
Bill, couldn’t agree more.
LOL
I’m here once a month no can doooo.
There’s a few respectables but very very few on planet earth. Ive watch some of the best managers blow themselves up the last 10 yrs.
See king dollar is ramming Gold. Forget making money in USD terms /LOL
I’m here once a month. Theres a few respectables but very few on planet earth
See king dollar is ramming Gold. Forget making money in USD terms.
Who was it that called it used toilet paper. That’s the Loonie.
My View:
No debt….only on GOOD cash flow commercial RE. Less then 50% or in my case 20% With cash to clean that up.
I own some DIV producing funds (Up 20% this yr yielding 4-9%)
Business in hi tech has been great.
Play with some gold stocks when they wipe out. Don’t risk to much so you can sleep like a baby.
know how to fix your own crap
Enjoy life as this planet is falling apart.
BOLuck
PS get yourself a sweet electric car!
LOL
I’m here once a month no can doooo.
There’s a few respectables but very very few on planet earth. Ive watch some of the best managers blow themselves up the last 10 yrs.
See king dollar is ramming Gold. Forget making money in USD terms /LOL
I’m here once a month. Theres a few respectables but very few on planet earth
See king dollar is ramming Gold. Forget making money in USD terms.
Who was it that called it used toilet paper. That’s the Loonie.
My View:
No debt….only on GOOD cash flow commercial RE. Less then 50% or in my case 20% With cash to clean that up.
I own some DIV producing funds (Up 20% this yr yielding 4-9%)
Business in hi tech has been great.
Play with some gold stocks when they wipe out. Don’t risk to much so you can sleep like a baby.
know how to fix your own crap
Enjoy life as this planet is falling apart.
BOLuck
PS get yourself a sweet electric car!
BOOM breakout.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Even the Xhicap Cubs are doing better than gold.
To quote RA, “gold looks like hell”
And I will add “silver the worst part of hell”
Does gold get down to ricks 850 area or even his 670 area?
I dunno….Its a gamble call.
Get a free trial of http://www.weldononline.com/signup.aspx
report back! He was bang on the run up and the sell.
I used mine up!
Doc, what do you think of the vix right now as it is so low?
Pardu, if the conventional market performs like I think it can until the end of the year, the VIX could trade down to 10. I think the conventional market should see a drying up of volume and if complacency occurs as I suspect then 10 is very possible. That makes me think volatility could really pick up in January.
Thanks, Doc. Much obliged!
If gold is uber bearish now, what would the sentiment be like in the $800 price range? I dunno, I just cant envisage a drop that low. Mind you the US $ is continuing its march higher even when it looked as thohgh it was running out of steam.
Bought some underwear today. HBI now long