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Where is this run in gold and gold stocks going to top out?

Cory
January 9, 2017

Doc is with us today and we are looking at the moves in gold. Gold is experiencing a nice move up today of slightly over $10 but how much longer can we expect this to go? We are sticking with our slow recovery narrative which will produce longer term gains but it will take time.

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Discussion
44 Comments
    CFS
    Jan 09, 2017 09:22 AM

    Platinum is up $15 in London today.

    CFS
    Jan 09, 2017 09:26 AM
    Jan 09, 2017 09:33 AM

    Doc:
    It’s good to hear that you don’t plan on trimming any of your positions if the gold market breaks $1200 and then drifts back down some. I’m curious, how far down would you expect at this time that the metal could hit?

      Jan 09, 2017 09:38 AM

      Silver, we can still drift higher for a few days but I don’t believe it’ll be a strong move—as mentioned, we may challenge the low 1200s. Then I believe the path of least resistance is down and I don’t believe we’ll take out the recent low of about 1125. At that time I hope I’ll be able to tell how strong the next move up is. 1125 may be a low we don’t see again.

        Jan 09, 2017 09:42 AM

        Thank you. Seasonality certainly agrees with your short-term analysis into February. I plan on plan on holding through most of next month, but may change depending on what transpires. Good luck to you.

          Jan 09, 2017 09:01 PM

          Silver, just a thought; March is usually a decent month for the metals.

      Jan 10, 2017 10:27 AM

      $BPGDM is the [Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index], and it is a breadth indicator that provides a fairly good signal on when the miners are overbought or over sold.

      $BPGDM hit 100 last summer which was way overbought, and those that did not trim, watched their gains evaporate away as most companies fell back down for the balance of the year.

      When $BPGDM hit a double bottom low again this last Nov/Dec, then that gave me the confidence to get back in the water and re-position in miners much heavier in Dec through the post holiday tax-loss selling season. Things don’t stay that oversold for long.

      We mentioned on here a few times that it was very similar to January of 2016, or the Nov/Dec oversold situation in late 2014, right before that Q1 rally. (check those time periods out on this chart)

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20600169876

      The RSI is starting to get into “Overbought” conditions again (above the chart), so I could see it temporarily topping soon, taking a breather to cool off the indicators, and then taking another lunge higher later in Q1 2017.

        Jan 10, 2017 10:30 AM

        The miners may have another week or two to run first though, so squeeze out those gains first…. then lighten the load if things get too top-heavy later in the month.

          Jan 10, 2017 10:09 AM

          Think that comment could go for the entire u.s. market.quite possible that the top has hit or will hit just before inauguration and then a months long correction takes hold….

            Jan 10, 2017 10:44 AM

            Good point about the inauguration. I was just looking at the charts but wasn’t even thinking about the changing of the guard for the Commander in Chief as a potential catalyst.

    CFS
    Jan 09, 2017 09:38 AM

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/09/conway-trump-russia-probe-congress-hacking-obama/96338952/

    Trump may lift sanctions on Russia.

    (Neglecting that Russia has just doubled up on its sales of yellowcake to Iran = 20 nukes equivalent so far!
    ut what the heck, once there nuclear reactors are going full strength they will have plenty of Plutonium and the capability of making dirty bombs)

      Jan 09, 2017 09:04 PM

      CFS:

      For a little balance, why don’t you write about how many nuclear bombs Israel has? Why would we spend even a minute worrying about Iran when all 17 US intelligence agencies agree they do not have a nuclear weapons program?

      You keep trying to convince the board that you have some sort of coin with only one side. Israel remains the only power in the Middle East with WMD and nuclear weapons and has threatened to use them. There are two sides to the issue and by pretending there is only one, you insult the intelligence of everyone here.

        CFS
        Jan 09, 2017 09:09 PM

        Mr. Moriarty, please do not assume I am as ignorant of Israel as you.
        Last information I recall on Israel’s nuclear capability (from S. African sources and a bit out of date) was that Israel had triple digit numbers of nuclear bombs.

          CFS
          Jan 09, 2017 09:14 PM

          From my memory, the last confirmed number was 33 nukes in Israel. The current regime did confirm its “no first strike” policy, more recently than all your claimed “threats”.
          Iran, on the other hand, repeatly and currently, threatens death to America; Death to Israel.

            Jan 09, 2017 09:22 PM

            CFS:

            Did you miss all the parades in Israel with the mob screaming “Death to the Arabs?”

            And by the way, Obama, the French President and most of the world agree that the administration in Israel lies about almost everything.

            I’ll give you a lot of credit for honesty. BM refused to admit Israel had nuclear weapons even after proof that they had tested one off South Africa in the 1970s and tried to sell them to SA.

            But the number is a lot higher than you admit. This from Wikipedia, “Although no official statistics exist, estimates of Israeli nuclear weapons range from 75 to as many as 400.[3][4][5][6] ”

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

            Jan 09, 2017 09:57 PM

            CFS..Bob M. has made his hatred for Israel quite clear from way back. He either has his head in the sand or is just plain ignorant of the facts. Either way you won’t get anywhere trying to reason with him when it comes to Israel.

            CFS
            Jan 09, 2017 09:12 PM

            I have more faith in the mob not being in control in Israel; in Iran as the US Embassy sacking demonstrated, that is not so true.

            CFS
            Jan 09, 2017 09:18 PM

            I always assume truth is in limited quantity in all statements issued by all governments.
            (Even when it comes to my own government, and especially if the statement comes out of the Whitehouse.)

          Jan 09, 2017 09:02 PM

          CFS:

          Telling the truth about Israel is hardly the same as being ignorant. But speaking of ignorance, I probably know 50 times as much as you about war. If Israel continues on the path they are on and have been on for 70 years they will either commit national suicide or start WW III.

          They will lose as will the US.

            CFS
            Jan 09, 2017 09:08 PM

            One area I will agree about your superior knowledge is the historical violation of airspace around the Eiffel tower, Paris.

            Jan 09, 2017 09:08 PM

            Gator and CFS:

            Perhaps you should do something about your ignorance. Here is an article that discusses The Zionist plan for the Middle East.

            The plan operates on two essential premises. To survive, Israel must 1) become an imperial regional power, and 2) must effect the division of the Whole area into small states by the dissolution of all existing Arab states. Small here will depend on the ethnic or sectarian composition of each state. Consequently, the Zionist hope is that sectarian-based states become Israel’s satellites and, ironically, its source of moral legitimation.

            http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/01/09/the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/

            If there are flaws to the article, why don’t you discuss them instead of the constant attacks on everyone who doesn’t buy into the Zionist view of the world?

            CFS
            Jan 09, 2017 09:15 PM

            I registered, but was lucky not to have to serve in Vietnam. So, I have not had to face atrocities close up.

            b
            Jan 09, 2017 09:17 PM

            I have read “death to….” is an expression.
            Bang my thumb with a hammer “death to hammers”

            I dont see BM as hating Israel, the zionists might be another matter.
            Personally, I think all business with Israel should be stopped, unfortunately, they kinda rule us.

            I have been amazed for years that people almost worship the zionists of Israel.
            Especially christians, ya would think they would be insulted when their writing says jesus is boiled for all eternity in human excrement, he is idol worship and Mary was a whore.
            Yet they unquestionably support them.
            Talk about brainwash.

            I agree with BM 100%
            So do alot of Jews living in Israel actually.

            Jan 09, 2017 09:23 PM

            CFS:

            I know an atrocity when I see one. A soldier of anyone’s army shooting a defenseless wounded prisoner in the head is a war crime. When 67% of the citizens of that country believes it’s ok to do, that makes them all war criminals. Notice none of what I said had even a smidgen to do with religion.

            You don’t need religion to be a war criminal. I used to admire Kerry because in 1972 he knew what war crimes were and has forgotten.

            GH
            Jan 09, 2017 09:44 PM

            Is Christianity a religion of peace?

            If so, why does an ostensibly Christian nation like the US the greatest purveyor of violence in the world?

            Jan 09, 2017 09:56 PM

            Kerry sold out to big money……marrying in big money sure changes things.

            Jan 10, 2017 10:28 AM

            Absolutely Jerry – honey traps and money traps…

        Jan 09, 2017 09:27 PM

        Bravo Robert.M . Ur the only one with some horse sense. Sincerely. I shall purchase your book soon:

        Jan 09, 2017 09:39 PM

        Bob Moriarty, concerning your321 post this am concerning MXGOLD, HAULING FROM MINES only 180 miles round trip to mill could considerably impact cost per ton hauled. Could you comment on long distance hauling. I’m sure grade/ton is the prominent issue

          Jan 09, 2017 09:47 PM

          As to MX Gold. It obviously is an issue but the two bulk samples showed over half a ounce and one with 26 g/t. I think that would work but we need a PEA to know. I can say it’s obvious they are trying to line up feed. They have a $80 million dollar mill that they paid $5.7 million for. They want the mill working and it isn’t going to be for moly for a long time.

            Jan 09, 2017 09:53 PM

            Thanks Bob M

    Jan 09, 2017 09:39 AM

    Doc, are you taking Clemson and 7 points? Sounds good to me.

      Jan 09, 2017 09:57 PM

      Hey Bonzo I am really looking forward to the game. As much I would like to see Clemson not only cover but also win, I think Bama is too big and fast. That 7 point line is tough. I would lean towards Bama minus 7 but I’m just hoping it is close. A Rose Bowl esque game would be amazing!

      Sounds like you are leaning toward Clemson 🙂

        Jan 09, 2017 09:20 PM

        I would lean toward Clemson if I could get 7 points, but I don’t have a bookie. Hope it’s as good as the Rose Bowl.

    Jan 09, 2017 09:32 PM

    FBI Quietly Releases Another 300 Hillary Email Investigation Documents

    While much of America was watching the NFL playoffs or the Golden Globe Awards, the FBI quietly released another several hundred pages of documents related to its investigation of Hillary Clinton.

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/01/09/fbi-releases-300-hillary-clinton-email-investigation-documents-during-nfl-golden-globes

    GH
    Jan 09, 2017 09:39 PM

    Has the S&P500 topped in terms of gold? Looks like it to me. The recent top would form a double top. It just formed a swing high on the monthly chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p22297092839&a=498431602

    Jan 09, 2017 09:29 PM

    I am fed up to the top of my eyeballs with movie stars who have a huge following giving their political opinions, if they were worth their weight in salt they would be graceful and keep their worthless opinions to themselves.

    I agree with Trump, Meryl Streep is overrated! DT

      Jan 09, 2017 09:14 PM

      Never liked Merly Streep Gummer.

      Jan 10, 2017 10:01 AM

      DT +1

      If anyone has ever watched a movie in production, they will do the same scene 10-50 times in a row. After a few iterations it becomes scary because you begin to realize the actors have an incredible ability to fake feelings.

      All actors share one ability and that is to mimic real feelings. That is hardly a qualification as to dealing with the real world. Actors talking about how countries should be run is like listening to the pope talk about sex. If you no playa the game, don’t makea the rules.

    Jan 09, 2017 09:22 PM

    +1
    Just a bunch a dicks

      Jan 10, 2017 10:32 AM

      Did you see Meryl’s fake tears? Donald is right, if not a one-time reasonable actor she’s a deplorable one now. Same goes for Clooney and de Niro and a raft more.

        Jan 10, 2017 10:20 AM

        Robert Duvall is a better than Streep-Gummer, Clooney, de Niro, et al, and he’s a conservative, like Kelsey Grammer and Jon Voight.