US markets and the Bond market looking ahead
Doc joins me today to focus on the moves we saw this week in US markets – Dow over 20,000. We also look at future moves in the bond market and how that will impact the world. We need to see that the narrative that has been in place for over 10 years, you could argue, is starting to change.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I tend to agree on the VIX as a rule CFS; it’s been shorted on ‘institutional’ scales for years…. and I’ve certainly had a my head handed to me playing the leveraged etfs (tvix)… but in the 10s its got to pop pretty soon don’t you think?
I don’t think VIX can be manipulated forever.
When it breaks it has to go up, but when? I would not guess.
Whenever, Trump’s boost is over?
CFS:
I may have mentioned this once before. All financial markets are manipulated. They always have been and always will be. Saying a market is manipulated is like saying the sun rises in the East. Interesting but pretty meaningless information.
SCCO continues on up….? Trump effect ?
Ivanhoe Mines files NI 43-101 technical report on the Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Kakula Copper Discovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(Marketwired – Jan. 27, 2017) – Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) (OTCQX:IVPAF)
Over the last few days I’ve posted most of those key note presentations from the MIF on here over various editorials, but that’s a good one-stop shop. The youtube pages are also up as well.
Beneath the Surface – Metals Investor Forum Videos:
Federal Reserve Bankers Mocked Unemployed Americans Behind Closed Doors
IN 2011, UNEMPLOYMENT WAS at a near crisis level. The jobless rate was stuck around 9 percent nationally, an unusually high number due to the continuing effects of the financial crash.
House Democrats were aghast. “With almost five unemployed Americans for every job opening, too many people remain jobless because of a lack of work, not a lack of wanting to work,” said Congressman Lloyd Doggett, D-Tex. So in early November 2011, they introduced a bill to reauthorize Federal unemployment benefits, an insurance program designed to aide those looking for work.
Behind closed doors at the Federal Reserve however, the conversation struck a different tone.
MTF:
While the Intercept mocked the Federal Reserve members for being dismissive of job seekers, their points were perfectly true. Job applicants can’t pass drug tests and are fundamentally illiterate. The Federal Reserve didn’t do that, it took the Executive branch to accomplish that.
I cannot see silver going below $17 in the near future.
All Major Silver mining shares doing well today:
Symbol Name Weighted Alpha Last Change Percent
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp +109.37 4.07 +0.15 +3.83%
PAAS Pan Amer Silver Corp +97.78 18.90 +0.68 +3.73%
GPL Great Panther Silver Ltd +115.17 1.78 +0.06 +3.49%
AG First Majestic Silver +85.34 9.23 +0.31 +3.48%
ASM Avino Silver & Gold +32.73 1.57 +0.05 +3.29%
HL Hecla Mining Company +144.88 6.33 +0.20 +3.26%
SSRI Silver Stand Res +56.19 10.15 +0.28 +2.84%
FSM Fortuna Silver Mines +53.18 6.17 +0.16 +2.66%
BVN Compania Mina Buenaventura S.A. +126.98 13.31 +0.34 +2.62%
TAHO Tahoe Res Inc -14.52 8.84 +0.16 +1.84%
MAG MAG Silver Corp +61.52 13.58 +0.21 +1.57%
The action is very good; now we just need some follow-through…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=8&id=p79877902755&a=451786106
Thanks CFS – There were some very nice moves in a number of Silver stocks today.
Famous last words 🙂
Massive amounts of EPA regulations about to be killed.
Trump will be using an old law that requires the EPA to issue a report whenever it creates a new regulation.
Obama rushed so many regulations through that for many no reports were issued, and thus changes can be voided by a blanket kill-shot. Literally hundreds killed in one go.
anything obama did should be killed……….regulations that is……
Here’s the vendors list for PDAC 2017 for anyone interested in the companies still alive and kicking out there in the resource space. Many of these companies will be rushing to get out news between now and March to cover at this event.
http://www.pdac.ca/docs/default-source/convention—common-docs/investors-exchange-exhibitor-list-(dec-20).pdf?sfvrsn=0
For clarity I didn’t mean to imply that if a company is not going to PDAC that they are not valid, as I have a number of companies in my portfolio not on their vendor’s list.
My point was simply that these companies are active or they wouldn’t be marketing and promoting at the event in 2 months, and many of them will be trying to release news on the front side of that event, so they can talk to that point in their presentations.
Ironically, the one Gold Exploration company that I picked up today (SWA) Sarama Resources is not going to be attending the PDAC, but they’re in West Africa anyway…
___________________________________________________________________________
Sarama sees something big in South Houndé
Mining Journal – 27 Jan 2017
“Acacia Mining’s comparison of Western Australia’s Eastern Goldfields greenstone belt gold endowment with the southern Houndé belt in Burkina Faso at a London exploration forum last November underscored the scale and prospectivity of the latter, and raised a few eyebrows. It certainly hit home with Andrew Dinning, CEO of Acacia’s South Houndé project partner, Sarama Resources (TSX: SWA).”
ESTABLISHING BURKINA FASO’S NEXT GOLD DISTRICT – Corporate Fact Sheet
“Sarama Resources is a Burkina Faso focused gold exploration and development company with interests in three adjoining projects located in the prolific South Houndé belt…”
Excelsior:
I’ve been to BF three times and seen about half a dozen projects there. It’s one of the top spots in the world for exploration and I actually pretty much hate to work in Africa or at least the rest of Africa.
Bob M – Yes, Burkina Faso has been a hive of activity with True Gold (now owned acquired by Endeavour Mining), B2Gold, Semafo, IAMGold, Roxgold, Teranga Gold, Savary/Samara, and West African Resources just to name a few of the players.
I do like much of Western Africa and have some interest in projects in Mali, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, and Senegal. However, Burkina Faso has been the stand out thus far.
http://www.iggsarl.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/BFGoldMines.jpg
Here is an older map of Burkina Faso’s mining projects, but Amara was acquired by Perseus and Gryphon was acquired by Teranga Gold. Still it gives investors a lay of the land of how much is going on in BF.
http://www.burkina-emine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Cartes-gisements-BF.jpg
This is a great YouTube Video of my buddy MiningBookGuy on West Africa mostly focused around Sarama Resources, but it touches on Savary Gold, Endeavour Mining, Acacia Mining, Teranga Gold, RoxGold, Orezone, etc…. Lots of maps showing how things are unfolding….
#SouthHoundeBelt #BurkinaFaso $EDV $ACA.L $SMF $ROG $ORE $TGZ $TGZ.AX
The better our gold miners can hold up before the stock market cracks, the better they they will do when it finally does crack.
This small modified Schiff fork remains relevant:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p42665705868&a=433404534
I don’t know how long stocks can go up without correcting but the more they do, the greater the odds will be of a long term top forming.
A blow-off in the making…?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=22&id=p79211171407&a=448653503
Think I’ll bookmark this as the textbook example of an overbought chart……just for reference when PMs reach their blow-off potential! Thanks.
To quote Neil Young, ‘One of these days, and it won’t be long’…oh, wait a second, that’s Led Zeppelin too! Good things come in pairs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96890545433&a=482818753
You’re gonna sit down and write a long letter?
To all the good friends I’ve known, and tell them ‘GET OUT!!!’
The letter will only be long because it will be full of charts 😉
Doc:
You guys never mentioned the huge amount of derivatives out there; the majority (I’ve read) are tied to interest rates in one way or another. Could this be a time bomb nobody is watching that closely?
Silver, sure they’re a time bomb waiting to happen. However, over the last few years, the bankers are slowly winding down some of those positions and if interest rate elevation occurs over a protracted period of time they may not be a problem. However, I understand that as they unwind their positions in these derivatives, the underlying good collateral supporting those positions is unwinding faster which should be problematic.
SD:
If there are 50 guys in the world who understand the dangers of derivatives, I would be shocked. Most people don’t write about it because most investors don’t understand what derivatives are.
In simple terms, derivatives were thought to spread risk around and instead, they multiply risk. $500 trillion of the counted derivatives are interest rate sensitive and a 3% move in interest rates would and will blow the entire system sky high.
It’s like standing at the bottom of Everest and watching an avalanche start at the top. You know it’s coming down, you just don’t know what it’s going to take with it.
Doc, if we get enough inflation will I be able to recoup my losses in Royal Oak Mines, Allied Nevada, and Midway Gold, or are they dead as nail in door?
BB; what are the symbols on those stocks? I guess I’m too lazy to look them up and if I owned any of them I could pull them out of my hat.
BB; now I know why I don’t have the symbols and why you’re concerned. Not investment advice but I would personally hold those shares and when the bull gets really going and you take capital gains on some of those other great PM companies you currently hold you can use the long term capital losses from these companies you hold to counter those gains
Ditto.
Use them to wash out capital gains in other stocks that performed well when you sell them.
Yes Doc, that’s my plan. I hope OLV.V and NSRPF don’t wind up like Royal Oak and Midway and ANV.
Bonzo Barzini – I started a position in Novo Resources in December, and averaged down in January, and have a slightly profitable position at this point, but I truly expect it to double from here in 2017 and go up 3×5 times by the end of 2018.
Hang in there….
NOVO EXTENDS THE GOLD SPEC SHOOT AT ITS BLUE SPEC GOLD-ANTIMONY PROJECT, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
January 18, 2017 – Novo Resources Corp. (TSX-V: NVO; OTCQX: NSRPF)
Excelsior, that’s my hope too and I ain’t selling NSRPF. If they really find another Witwatersrand in Oz they could go to the moon.
I’m a fan of their proposed mining method of removing the overburden with ease greatly reducing the strip ratio and the fact that they can use gravity recovery as two areas that really bring the costs down, and will provide great margins = ease of profitability. Novo could surprise investors when they catch out to the simplicity in their business model, the low jurisdiction risk, solid team, and track towards production success. It will be a fun story to watch in 2017/2018 as things develop.
catch on…. (not catch “out”)
BB:
You would have to be buying shares with Zimbabwe dollars to recoup your losses in Allied Nevada. They don’t get any deader.
Bob: What’s you opinion on Midway common? Same. I’m holding some and haven’t written it off because I don’t need it now.
I’ve got some midway.
Sitting there on my account laughing at me. Think it’s lost 99.3%
I keep it on there as a reminder.
It would probably cost more to sell in transaction fees.… if there was a buyer 🙂
I wonder if gold at 10000 would revive Midway? At least I never owned Bre-X.
Don’t think midway striking gold would revive midway.
SD et al: The comments about holding the losses to offset later against gains is a really good idea. Write them off mentally now and financially when it makes sense. Stuff happens.
Bull flag in X is excellent. Who was it on this board that predicted $42 for it when it was down at $16? Nice call!
Absolutely Mr Moriarty. How could risk not be at an increased level when one is dealing with $500 trillion at the global casino. What you stated in regard to interest rates must surely dictate only incremental rate rises at the most?
Its sort of similar to the whole fractional reserve lending system throughout the banking world. A bank only needing to have a small portion of the physical cash they hand out willy nilly is fraught with danger if the brown stuff hits the fan.
I read the drop in the VIX as pure market fixing. We don’t have a free market; just manipulation.