Gold Market Commentary – Mon 30 Jan, 2017

A Chinese Currency Crisis Ahead? Incrementum Advisory Board Discussion – Q1 2017

Below is a link to a recap of a recent Advisory Board discussion from Ronnald-Peter Stoeferle at Incrementum AG, based in Austria. A number of topics are covered but the discussion about China and the trouble the Country is in is ties in nicely with the discussion I had on the weekend with Chris Temple.

Here is Ronni’s synopsis of the call.

We recently had another very interesting and thought-provoking advisory board discussion. On the call we had Heinz Blasnik, Frank Shostak and our special guest Paul Mylchreest, who is a thought leader on gold and the dollar.

What did we talk about during the call?

  • A major dollar related risk in 2017
  • A potential Chinese currency crisis in 2017
  • How markets react in post-election years
  • Where gold and the S&P are potentially headed in 2017

Also, for your convenience we have compiled the most important highlights at the top of the document. So if you are pressed for time, these highlights will cover what you need to know in only a few short minutes.

Click here to read the full call.


Featuring:
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
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Comments:
  1. On January 30, 2017 at 5:23 pm,
    CFS says:
  2. On January 30, 2017 at 5:27 pm,
    CFS says:

    Meanwhile, just south of the border:
    MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico’s top diplomat said Monday his country will spend about $50 million to hire lawyers for migrants in the United States facing deportation.

    The money will be channeled through Mexican consulates in the U.S. and also go to outreach programs “to promote respect for Mexicans’ rights.”

    Foreign Relations Secretary Luis Videgaray said the effort “isn’t about obstructing the enforcement of the law in the United States, or much less opposing law enforcement.”

    “We are going to focus the money on one fundamental objective, which is the defense of the rights of Mexicans. This means legal advice, informational campaigns, the hiring of lawyers where it is necessary.”

  3. On January 30, 2017 at 5:37 pm,
    CFS says:

    Kirkland Lake drills 3.2 m of 10.31 g/t Au at Taylor

    2017-01-30 07:09 ET – News Release

    Mr. Anthony Makuch reports

    KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD REPORTS NEW DISCOVERIES AND EXTENSIONS TO MINERALIZATION AT THE TAYLOR GOLD MINE COMPLEX

  4. On January 30, 2017 at 5:59 pm,
    Chris in the Philippines says:

    CFS,
    Well pure propaganda from Mexico. next! go Trump go

    • On January 30, 2017 at 6:19 pm,
      james says:

      Mexico need to stop CFS ! The world of X no more ?

  5. On January 30, 2017 at 6:32 pm,
    james says:
  6. On January 30, 2017 at 6:33 pm,
    GH says:

    Exciting day in the markets. Just about everything looks bearish to me.

    Exceptions are US 10 and 30 year bonds (looks like interest rates want to roll over, short-term), the yen, and gold. Precious metals stocks, a mixed bag. I went flat on JNUG again, for fear that junior precious metals stocks might get caught in a downdraft from the general markets. Lost about 1% on that one. Aside from the very short term, however, I am very bullish the precious metals and their miners. Exciting charts!

    The rest looks bearish to me–general markets, oil, natgas, lithium, uranium, solar, pot….

  7. On January 30, 2017 at 7:17 pm,
    CFS says:

    German inflation rises to 1.9% . This means that the ECB is running out of excuses to maintain or extend stimulus measures:
    If that occurs (no more ECB QE ) then the Euro could rise and the US Dollar drop, if the Fed continues to stimulate.

    With its most recent purchases, the ECB now owns 10.2% of all European corporate bonds. Total assets purchased equal 36% of EU GDP.
    Total purchases now total about US$3.98 trillion.

    Greece is beginning to look like it will be the first to exit the Euro currency.

  8. On January 30, 2017 at 7:41 pm,
    CFS says:

    http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017/01/29/comex-physical-gold-deliveries-rise-729-year-over-year/

    It is quite possible that COMEX manipulation of Gold and Silver pricing will diminish with the confirmation of Mnuchin to the SEC.
    The take-off of silver unemcumbered by manipulation could actually occur before the COMEX runs out of silver, but I’m not holding my breath!

    • On January 31, 2017 at 3:50 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      We will see……….I have my doubts…….

  9. On January 30, 2017 at 7:59 pm,
    CFS says:

    test from Ron Paul this morning:

    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIXoipjbaB4

    CFS comment: It is a pity Ron Paul and Daniel McAdams appear to get their information from MSM, rather than listening to Trump and his press Secretary.

    It was clearly explained why the Executive order was written the way it was and ALSO that it was an INTERIM order while the Trump Administration was developing a full policy.
    It was further explained why there was an interim order.
    The MSM is useless, and Ron Paul little better, unfortunately.
    It it ignorance or laziness to discover all information?

  10. On January 30, 2017 at 8:30 pm,
    Steele says:

    Interesting. I am trying to reconcile these two comments from Ron Stoeferle.

    – Our inflation signal recently switched to disinflation. We reduced our mining stocks position and bought treasuries
    – It seems like gold has made its lows

    This argues for safe haven plays amidst a risk off environment in the short term, based on disinflation. The historical post-election year (February) stock returns also supports this thesis. I.e., mining stocks may get caught in any conventional stock downdraft.

    • On January 30, 2017 at 8:45 pm,
      CFS says:

      Mining stocks go up during inflation.
      During disinflation, only AFTER the cost of mining comes down do mining stocks go up because of increased profitability.
      That’s what happened in the 1930s.
      (Miners went down with the 1929 crash and took a number of years before rising greatly.)

  11. On January 30, 2017 at 8:39 pm,
    CFS says:

    After the nomination of a Supreme court Justice tomorrow (Tuesday) evening, what will be next on Trump’s Agenda?
    With Trade negotiations continuing to develop, it would be reasonable to anticipate strengthening the military…..He has already talked the cost of the F35 down, but our worst problem probably comes with the degraded navy under Obama.

    Nomi Prins, in November’s Strategic Intelligence reported that President Trump will:

    “‘work with Congress to fully repeal the defense sequester and submit a new budget to rebuild our depleted military.’ Under his proposal, he would aim to ’rebuild the U.S. Navy toward a goal of 350 ships, as the bipartisan National Defense Panel recommended.’
    Donald Trump, indeed, made an explicit campaign promise to this effect, publishing a memo on Oct. 21, 2016, days before the election, describing what upgrades and investments will be made and specifically promises that:

    “On Day One of his administration, he will immediately begin to fulfill that promise with a Manhattan Project urgency to rebuild our navy…”

    And according to a recent report by the Associated Press, this involves “boosting shipbuilding to meet the navy’s 355-ship goal” could require an additional $5 billion to $5.5 billion in annual spending in the navy’s 30-year projection. ( according to an estimate by naval analyst Ronald O’Rourke at the Congressional Research Service.)

    • On January 31, 2017 at 3:47 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Military budget is over blown. That has been the problem for the last 20 yrs. Just more money printing, but , the bankers will get their fees, and the pentagon will just miss place billions as they have done in the past…..and give a little to the congress in kick backs.

      • On January 31, 2017 at 4:33 am,
        GH says:

        That’s the problem Jerry. With all we have spent, the military ought to be in tip-top shape.

        I haven’t checked the stats lately, but for at least a couple decades we have spent more on the military than the next ten top-spending nations combined, if not even more than that.

        Why do we get such a poor return on our investment? Corruption from criminals and traitors in the Pentagon and Congress is the only answer I can think of.

        • On January 31, 2017 at 8:19 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          the black budget money has gone missing with not accounting …….criminals to say the least……

          • On January 31, 2017 at 8:21 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Fitts, and Roberts have cover this topic for several years…….

          • On January 31, 2017 at 8:59 am,
            b says:

            My very basic guess, is that corruption brings down the U.S. empire.
            The question is how much damage will they do, environmental or with nukes.
            There is also the chance of mass confinements, martial law etc.
            No fun at all really.

            Has this expelling people on religious grounds ever happened before?
            If I was Muslim, I would get the h@ll outta dodge while I still had the chance.

            A friend of mines father fought the Russians in ww2, with the vermark, he heard the stories of camps, he didnt believe them.

          • On January 31, 2017 at 10:08 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            As the Roman Empire comparison……the money changers and the clipping of coinage, and your guess is a good one..jmho.

          • On January 31, 2017 at 10:36 am,
            b says:

            The mayor of Madrid seems to have hinted the policies of US President Donald Trump are reminiscent of those of Adolf Hitler, without naming the notorious Nazi dictator directly, but mentioning the “terrible genocides” of World War II.
            “We know that his [Trump’s] government has been legitimately elected and has the popular support of a large number of citizens,” Madrid Mayor Manuela Carmena said on Monday while speaking at a council plenary session.

            “But in the 20th century we experienced one of the greatest violations of human rights by a government that also initially enjoyed support from many citizens,” she said, in an apparent reference to Adolf Hitler and the Nazis.

            Seems Im not the only person that has noticed.
            The step by step has been going on for years now tho, Trumps just another step.

            Well, maybe a person needs good sunglasses, if the light show does start ya wanna be able to watch it.

  12. On January 30, 2017 at 8:59 pm,
    CFS says:

    The view from across the pond:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXARoTgGXfQ

    Nigel Farage.

  13. On January 30, 2017 at 9:10 pm,
    CFS says:
  14. On January 31, 2017 at 6:16 am,
    CFS says:

    Meanwhile in Russia, the Mikoyan 35…..

    https://www.rt.com/news/375349-russia-mig-fighter-jet/

  15. On January 31, 2017 at 6:32 am,
    CFS says:

    Trump signed executive orders last Tuesday advancing both the controversial Keystone XL Pipeline and the Dakota Access Pipeline, based on approvals. He, in fact ordered an expedited process for the environmental review. Trump separately signed an order requiring pipeline builders to use American steel. But he also signed orders expediting environmental review and approval process for high-priority infrastructure projects. “There’s other executive orders that speed up the environmental review process, and I believe that will open up the door to these other stalled projects going through,” said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas. Clifton said there were about 10 other energy projects, totaling $7 billion, that were turned down or held up since the Obama administration rejected the estimated $10 billion Keystone XL Pipeline in November 2015. Among the other projects are the $3 billion Atlantic Sunrise project in Pennsylvania, delayed in March, and the $3 billion Jordan Cove LNG project in Oregon, rejected in March. The $700 million Gateway Pacific coal terminal was rejected in May, and the PennEast Pipeline, in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, was delayed in March. The $5.1 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline in West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina was delayed in April. All these other projects are under review, and could greatly increase US exports if/when completed.

  16. On January 31, 2017 at 7:04 am,
    Matthew says:

    The loonie finally looks like it is on its way. An intermediate term advance has probably begun.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=11&id=p08957361983&a=501512774

  17. On January 31, 2017 at 7:13 am,
    Matthew says:

    Gold (GLD) is again getting capped by the 600 hour EMA:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p72367633027

  18. On January 31, 2017 at 7:15 am,
    Matthew says:

    I don’t think February is going to be kind to conventional stocks:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p83340021672

    • On January 31, 2017 at 7:26 am,
      CFS says:

      My projections, Matthew, are this is going to be more than a 10% correction in the general market.
      In fact, it looks like we have an above 50% probability of a new bear market of about 4 years duration. (For general stocks)

      As I predicted yesterday, there is potential for the Euro to increase, US dollar to decrease, until the Euro dissolves soon.

      • On January 31, 2017 at 7:46 am,
        Matthew says:

        I pretty much agree. Stocks could still go higher one more time so your 50% probability seems about right. However, I would guess that the odds are more like 80-90% for a new bear to begin sometime this year.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=14&id=p29929207142&a=460258854

          • On January 31, 2017 at 8:05 am,
            CFS says:

            Nothing goes in straight lines,of course.

            I’m a little bit surprised about interest rates continuing to fall. I thought they would be going up by now. Alas, many markets are manipulated. Probably everyone watching FOMC.

            I wish Mnuchin would get appointed to Treasury, but the Demos want the ship of state as frudderless as possible, I guess.

          • On January 31, 2017 at 8:06 am,
            CFS says:

            Sorry, my fick fingers attack again.

          • On January 31, 2017 at 8:19 am,
            Matthew says:

            They are frudderless themselves – not to mention frude, fruthless and fridiculous.

          • On January 31, 2017 at 8:20 am,
            Matthew says:

            They’re nothing but frats.

          • On January 31, 2017 at 9:12 am,
            Matthew says:

            The “Demos” of course, not your fingers.

  19. On January 31, 2017 at 7:31 am,
    CFS says:

    Indian silver closed at $19.51 yesterday. SGE is closed, of course.

  20. On January 31, 2017 at 7:37 am,
    CFS says:

    (NOTE location of source. A rapid anti-Trump location.)
    GARANCE BURKE,Associated Press
    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A man who President Donald Trump has promoted as an authority on voter fraud was registered to vote in multiple states during the 2016 presidential election, the Associated Press has learned.

    Gregg Phillips, whose unsubstantiated claim that the election was marred by 3 million illegal votes was tweeted by the president, was listed on the rolls in Alabama, Texas and Mississippi, according to voting records and election officials in those states. He voted only in Alabama in November, records show.

    In a post earlier this month, Phillips described “an amazing effort” by volunteers tied to True the Vote, an organization whose board he sits on, who he said found “thousands of duplicate records and registrations of dead people.”

    Trump has made an issue of people who are registered to vote in more than one state, using it as one of the bedrocks of his overall contention that voter fraud is rampant in the U.S. and that voting by 3 to 5 million immigrants illegally in the country cost him the popular vote in November.

  21. On January 31, 2017 at 7:38 am,
    CFS says:

    I typed RABID not rapid!