Doc opines on gold and silver and Big Al talks about a couple of companies he is looking to add to his portfolio.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
The next move will likely be the result of some serious short covering.
NYSE weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52683965451&a=506394219
Dow with Raff regression:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75486275635&a=489738161
Watch out for the Riff Raff 😉
Today was an absolute blast in the market’s !
Uranium stocks on fire, Zinc stocks ripping higher, Copper stocks on the move, Gold & Silver stocks on the move. I did a lot of Trimming, Adding, Nibbling, and reallocating.
Fun times!
Uex has had a great run since last year at 0,155 cad, today 0,385 cad. I wonder if its time to do some trimming on Uex? Or is it so undervalued that it could run a lot more in the near future?
Trimming is always prudent after such moves but it looks like it’s going higher:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UEX.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43445366617
That’s a good question Blue (one I debated a few different times lately). The short answer, it I’ve recently trimmed 1/3 of my position, but leaving 2/3 on for the ride much much higher. The recent “off the chart” drill results from UEX, at Christie Lake, were very impressive, and have accelerated this stock higher.
“Hole CB-109 intersected a 7.8 m long (from 475.65 – 483.45 m) mineralized segment with three sections of off-scale massive uranium mineralization exceeding the maximum possible measurement from a hand-held SPP2-NF Series 20 scintillometer.”
If you pull up a longer term chart it is easy to see where it could still be a 4-6 bagger from the current levels. I’ve trimmed 1/3 of my position into this strength (that’s the conservative trader in me), but I left 2/3 of the position on to run much higher. If the share price doubles from here I’ll likely trim the next 1/3, and retain the final 1/3 for a final blow off top or an acquisition by Cameco or Areva.
Personally, I really am much more risk adverse than some investors that go all or nothing, and then hold come hell or high water for the “big win.” Of course, if an investor times it out perfectly (very difficult) then it can be the highest payoff to trade that way. However, I find that “All In – All Out” approach VERY risky when dealing with the resource and energy sector, which is highly volatile, a roller-coaster, and there are no shortages of surprises or challenges that can strike any company (even the best names).
As a result, I don’t go all in or sell all at once (unless there is a compelling fundamental reason – like a tailings dam bursting, or a fantastic game changing drill hole, or a permit that is granted/denied, or a merger/acquisition).
My approach is to average into a core position over time (buying dips/selling rips) until my cost basis is at a level that is low enough that I feel good holding even if there was a big sell off.
So initially I may trade in an out of a stock multiple times to get the cost basis lower by reinvesting the profits from rallies into the dips until I get my position down to a level low enough that I’m no longer worried or nervous that a pullback will breach that level for the foreseeable future.
Once I’m finally happy with that core position then I leave it alone and develop an exit strategy that will have 2-4 targets that I sell out in tranches. I do believe in “dating stocks” and not “marrying” them, although there are a few stocks in each sector that I’ve had various sized positions in for years because they are easy to trade and re-balance, and they really are more longer term plays for me.
UEX is a stock I’ve been swing-trading since 2010, but haven’t always held a position in it due to the weakness in the Uranium sector since 2011. I did start nibbling in the first half of last year, and added more around the holidays and then put it aside to see what happened with Uranium miners in general.
When all the Uranium stocks really took off in December and kept charging into mid January, and I had more than doubled my core position this year, then I trimmed 1/3, and currently have the other 2/3 still in position. I added just a little back during the pullback in late January (but nothing substantial). Over time UEX should be going well over $.80-$.90 and the end game for me is a buyout by a major.
As for the 1/3 I trimmed in mid January – I put that profit into Anfield Resources which looks really undervalued next to most of the high fliers in the Uranium stocks over the last few months. It’s a development stage Uranium company operating in the US and it will be going into production by the end of this year. Right now, very few seem to even notice it, so it’s a sleeper stock, but it seemed like a good place to dump some profits.
Ever Upward!
Sorry, I didn’t realize how long that answer was 🙂
For clarity I believe the stock could be closer to $2-3 at a buyout, but in the next year or two, I could see it reaching the $.80-.90 level. Just thought I’d clear that up so people didn’t think $.80 – $.90 was the top. The Feb 2011 high was around $2.30, but the Sept 2007 high was $8.43, for some perspective.
The 2011 high at $2.30 or the 2007 high at $8.43 makes $.385 seem rather cheap.
That’s why I’m leaving 2/3 on to keep journeying…..
* Today was an awesome day in the #Uranium Stocks !
Uranium Stock SYMBOL % CHG
UEX Corporation $UEX +20.31%
Clean Commodities Corp. $CLE +20.00%
Forsys Metals Corp. $FSY +13.51%
Kivalliq Energy Corporation $KIV +13.33%
U3O8 Corp. $UWE +12.50%
Uranium Resources, Inc. $URRE +11.90%
GoviEx Uranium Inc. $GXU +10.39%
Power Metals Corp. $PWM +10.26%
Paladin Energy Ltd $PDN +9.68%
Skyharbour Resources Ltd. $SYH +8.62%
NexGen Energy Ltd. $NXE +7.67%
Azarga Uranium Corp. $AZZ +7.32%
Bayswater Uranium Corporation $BYU +7.14%
Aura Energy Limited $AEE.AX +6.82%
Fission 3.0 Corp. $FUU +5.88%
Liberty Star Uranium & Metals Corp. $LBSR +5.63%
Mega Uranium Ltd. $MGA +5.45%
Cameco Corporation $CCJ +5.39%
UR-Energy Inc. $URG +5.22%
IsoEnergy Ltd. $ISO +5.00%
Uravan Minerals Inc. $UVN +5.00%
Western Uranium Corporation $WUC +4.80%
Global X Uranium ETF $URA +4.43%
Laramide Resources Ltd. $LAM +4.35%
Deep Yellow Limited $DYL.AX +3.85%
Fission Uranium Corp. $FCU +3.53%
Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. $PTU +3.33%
Energy Fuels Inc. $UUUU +3.29%
Boss Resources Limited $BOE.AX +2.78%
Peninsula Energy Limited $PEN.AX +2.61%
Denison Mines Corp. $DNN +2.56%
Mawson Resources Limited $MAW +2.17%
Centrus Energy Corp. $LEU +1.95%
Uranium Participation Corporation $U +1.75%
Uranium Energy Corp. $UEC +1.73%
Energy Resources of Australia Ltd $ERA.AX +1.38%
Bannerman Resources Limited $BMN.AX +1.15%
AREVA SA $ARVCF +1.03%
Lightbridge Corporation $LTBR +0.93%
VanEck Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Engy ETF $NLR +0.56%
Even priced in gold, the Dow looks like it has another move higher (at least short term):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p38469133126
I belive there will be one more abortive move higher for the dow;gold ratio which won’t reached the previous high—the odds are good that will be a double top and then we start our long awaited move down. It won’t be straight down but occur in fits and starts.
Where is Bonzo? Not investment advice but took a small position in NGD today. Will increase my position in the future.
Hi Richard, I was going to ask you if you bought NGD today but I see you did, any thoughts on the technical, DT
It looks like smart money is moving into Cliffs Natural Resources. DT
Dick, we could still move lower over time but I’m not concerned since I’ll add then. the MACD on the daily is looking nice right now for a potential short term move up. As far as the medium term is concerned we still might on the weekly want to move lower with the lower BB. I figure that if this stock moves higher in the short term like I expect and then starts to reverse later, I will have the perogative of moving out of the position without much of a loss to get in lower. However, I’m now a long term holder and won’t do that.
I’m here Doc, wishing I’d bought more NGD last week instead of buying CDE.
Bonzo, I’m focusing on PM stocks that haven’t had a significant run and ones I know will be around when this bull really starts to snort since I believe those kind of stocks will easily double or more when the rising gold price will raise all boats.
Doc, I have about 9 times as much NGD as I have in CDE, and I’ll buy more NGD if it goes down again.
GDXJ is still up 5.1% from the level it was at on Sunday the 3rd when I said that it was probably going higher. I got my “mini melt-up” if almost 10% in a couple of days qualifies as such.
I still think that there might be another day or two of upside this week before the miners finally take a break that lasts two or three weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=13&id=p01623097011&a=502742327
It’s just a guess, but maybe it will follow the arrows here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=13&id=p93911006990&a=481625016
Matthew – I like that you made an inverse “head & shoulder” pattern with those arrows off the 200 day for both shoulders and the 233 for the head of the pattern low. Nicely done.
I wouldn’t mind a more dramatic path. I added some blue arrows to the chart to show you what I mean.
Yeah, I’d rather see the dramatic path in the blue arrows, so I could lighten up on the high, and buy back on that corrective move down. The exaggerated moves provide the depth to trade the move without getting it perfect. Regardless, either scenario seems very reasonable.
Bill captures Janet Yellin in mid-thought: http://www.stocktipster.net/index.php/2017/02/14/sideways-waiting-yellin/.
Like gold, the yen is going to have a decent year:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p71990180931&a=496233029
Yen with modified Schiff fork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=22&id=p66491076126&a=489358284
Short term, it has some work to do.
Daily:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p76049301024&a=506523502
Conventional stocks are going higher:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p96310766453&a=440332926