Are long term predictions worthy of consideration? Rick says not in his work. How about your thoughts?
Investors are waiting on the Fed this morning.
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It seems to me that if employers of illegals were given harsh punishment, and illegals were not allowed to receive any government benefits, that would do a lot to resolve the issue without the barbarity of a wall.
The other side of the issue, that few recognize or want to talk about, is that just as its policies in the middle east have created war refugees, the US’s exploitation of Latin America has created economic refugees (as well as war refugees, e.g. from US-trained death squads in El Salvador). More karma of colonialism.
I’m in favor of limiting immigration, but being a good neighbor.
From my research, I certainly cannot disagree with your second paragraph above.
Thanks very much for this article, CFS.
Latest Gary Savage:
XAU break. Bill sees deeper “precious” decline: http://www.stocktipster.net/index.php/2017/02/22/xau-break-deep-gold-decline/.
XAU peaked precisely at Schiff fork resistance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p50819540788&a=508474182
Then his 83.46 ‘gap target’ is probably realistic.
Yes, it is realistic but it would be bullish if it fails to get there (again). Notice that last year’s large decline failed to close the gap of April 7th, last year:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p55425819676&a=508479911
I have to agree with Ric, to me it seems like the Battle of th Bulge is raging in Au/Ag, yet there is so much cloud cover ( geoenginerring) ,by Da Boyz, Deutschbank revealed, et al, it’s only a matter of time when we have clear skies, and see there is very little actual Au/Ag to be had. Got the Actual, anyone?
Very little “actual”?
I am far from convinced of that.
Everyone and anyone that wants physical gets it, any amount, the amount doesnt matter, Russia just imported over 30 tons, no issues.
Thats probly a tad more than anyone on this blog would be after.
This screaming “shortage” has been going on for years, remember the Hunt brothers?, they screamed “shortage” too, when was that? 1980? So this shortage story is far from new, and everyone has always got what they wanted.
Tons and tons and tons goes to china for example, how many tons has to move for people to realize there is no shortage?
I know, i know, any day now….to the moon. lol
(5% phyz and fugetaboutit)
5% phyz makes sense to me. But then again, b, as you know my motive for buying gold and silver is not that of a trader.
I care to leave an real inheritance to my 2 kids & grandkids, not just paper or a 3600 sq ft house paid in full.
sure, lots of “stuff” to leave kids, babe ruth/wayne gretsky rookies etc my comment was simply about the fallacy of there not being phyzz to purchase.
jpm has just collected the largest hoard of silver ever in history known to man.
no shortage, all ya want.
This shortage screaming is fraudulent imo
And actually kinda shows a person hasnt researched.
I have been saying for years, we only know the demand side of the equation, we dont know the supply side, but the evidence points to “all anyone and everyone wants is available for purchase”.
also, the russians just figured out how to make gold from coal and we are about to begin mining asteroids, ya, space will run short. lol
When “new to this game people” eventually catch on and discover the truth, I think lots leave believing the people involved screaming “any day now”, “its a shortage”..look pretty ….. silly?
When people understand without being “scammed” they are much more likely to be comfortable with a % of phyzz imo
I know the truth, and I keep a % of phyzz in both silver and gold.
My thoughts exactly, Marty!
Not at all referring to your comment about 0 phyz. Marty. I, as most everyone is aware, do believe and do in reality hold physical gold; silver; and some coins.
I love Beckett’s “Waiting For Godot” and I especially love the great absurdist novels of Samuel Beckett. Reading them in the seventies made those days somewhat tolerable.
Allied Nevada Shareholders Question Barrick Gold’s Involvement In Bankruptcy
Gold & The Inflationary Firestorm
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_022117.html
Didn’t get a chance to listen at all. “ARE LONG TERM PREDICTIONS WORTHY OF CONSIDERATION” I’ve seen so many go astray. Long term cycles are certainly worthy. Until they aren’t, like all the other staples of investing 🙂
I’ll reiterate again—-THIS IS NOT A STRONG MOVE BY THE PMS. Many of the stock charts are now in the process of turning down again. It’ll be a great opportunity to add to positions in a few days. Everytime folks chase these things, they get hammered. Buy on pullbacks which we are now experiencing the beginnings of again.
Doc, do you mean on the monthly, weekly, or daily charts? Things still look constructive in most of the miners I follow and in the mining ETFs.
When I look at the move the miners have had coming out of tax loss selling in Dec of last year, the move up into the first quarter of 2017 has been very rewarding.
I hear what you’re saying about not chasing stocks here, but I’d still expect one more leg up in the mining shares prior to PDAC in March, and then I’d expect things to cool down a bit if the normal seasonality patterns play out (last year being an exception to these due to the kick off of the bull market in metals).
One analogy that can be drawn between the stock market rally starting in 2009 and another in 1921 is that these rallies were both eight years. The new administration is probably not going to effect anything except a temporary tax cut and deregulation that will engender a rally. Gin up the markets as they say. Maybe then the deflationists will finally be proved right,
The rally in 1921 and 2009 are not dissimilar. And people have said that the Nasdaq was like 1929 and the crash that tooh out Lehman was like 1929, but we’re at historic highs. Perhaps these afe the beginnings if hyperinflation.
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.ca/2008/11/dow-jones-industrial-avaerage-1920-1940.html
Thanks FranSix – Interesting correlation between those 2 stock market rallies.
Off Topic:
http://www.capoliticalreview.com/top-stories/more-immigration-raids-come-to-california/
So far this year Feds are reporting a success rate of only .07% in catching an illegal, with a deport order, with a raid of last known address.