The True Contrarian – Sticking to his call for $1,500 gold in the near future
Steven Jon Kaplan, Founder and Editor of The True Contrarian newsletter joins me today to discuss his outlook for the precious metals. We touch on the continued under performance of gold stocks compared to the gold spot price and Steven admits that it would not be surprising to see a pull back in the gold price. However he still believes that these drops are buying opportunities and gold will reach $1,500 shortly.
Click here to visit Steven’s website.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Hi Mathew,
Curious to know some of the stocks you follow. thanks
Hi Clare, there are quite a few that I watch and am prepared to trade but two of my top performers last year are once again, two of my favorites: Impact Silver and Americas Silver.
I had several orders filled for both today and my Impact Silver position is the largest its been since last summer. Both have a risk/reward profile that make me very comfortable with them.
Those are small companies but most of the others that I trade are far smaller. They include Scorpio Gold; Brixton Metals; Globex Mining; Constantine Metal Resources; Strategic Metals; Chibougamau Independent Mines, and others.
Larger plays include Osisko Mining; Silver Standard; Primero Mining, and Jaguar Mining.
It should be noted that the “when” often matters more than the “what.” So you can do just as well, or better, with countless other companies.
Speaking of Osisko Mining (formerly Oban), here’s an exchange we had about it here on January 12, 2016:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OSK.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01681387578&a=509851862
Matthew – I feel like I’m in good company as I hold 8 of those companies you named as well. I’ve got quite a list of stocks myself but it feels good knowing we share a few positions in common.
It just seemed like a good time to Thank You for all your input, charts, technical analysis wisdom, macro economic perspectives, and things you share with the KER Crew. It is appreciated.
I appreciate that, Excelsior, and thank you, too. You post a lot of valuable info yourself and I probably would have missed the JAG opportunity last year if not for your posts. It is also because of you that I took another look at Scorpio – and I’m sure there are others…
Well it’s a lot a fun tossing stock ideas around here on the KER. (but I have to admit, it is always encouraging to me when we’re buying into the same stocks).
One I didn’t see on your list that I am curious about is good ole Alexco. You out? I’ve been nibbling at it again, and really do expect them to go back into production later this year or early 2018 at the latest. Also, based on some of those drill hits on their Bermingham deposit last year, they still have some real upside exposure on more drilling in 2017. Just curious if you still followed them?
I’ve actually got a full “Dirty Dozen” Silver stocks just in that sector, so I’m feelling a bit over-exposed but have pretty low or free ride cost basis positions in most of them to ride out the storm……. It’s even worse with Gold stocks, but I have a small ETF going but at good cost positions in most of them so I’m torn on pulling profits and moving most of it to the sidelines or just riding out the correction and adding a bit more to them on the dip. Choices…..Choices…..
I still have some exposure to Alexco but not nearly as much as a year ago. I still think it will do very well.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p18882956005&a=509955393
Thanks for the response back on AXU and the chart. Looks like it’s holding support at present.
Thanks
Mathew….are you still out there? Looks like pm stocks are hitting a bottom now!? Their streached down quite a bit now and the last couple daz gold was winning on the downside move big time. Smf is always a good leading indicator and its all the way back to the lows and thats not pretty.
This year looks nothing like last yrs move. Not near as constructive.
I believe in Matthew’s techniques. I am just not as competent, since it is hard to use fundamental analysis for explorers.
Thanks for having Steven on the show again………….
I appreciate your kind words, Jerry.
If you watch closely enough you can see it happen.
charts are not really needed.
The issue is you get stuck to the screen, which isnt really for everybody.
Just sold my position in ROX a small bourbon producer thsi AM . made a kiooing . bought at ,,,,,,,,,,,,,75 sold at 1.30
Super discussion Cory. Thanks. Kaplan makes perfect sense in his analysis and yet he looks at parameters that many don’t incorporate into their thoughts. Much of his thinking correlates to Matthew’s views. We’re lucky folks in that we get to listen to both.
Something no one has mentioned today was the turnaround in the Yen. Earlier, it was down about .8 % and then turned around and recaptured the 112+ level and went higher…….while the Euro sat and watched dumbfounded.
Silverdollar– I appreciate your generous compliment! I agree that following currencies is valuable and I often track the Australian dollar as a sign to how gold mining shares and gold bullion will perform–especially if the aussie behaves differently. –Steve
Agreed on following the currencies for macro changes. The Yen has the tightest correlation with Gold, but the Australian and Canadian dollars are quite telling as well. Good thoughts on the audio interview and blog today from everyone.
Great comments from all. Thanks.
Much appreciated, Tad.
+1
+2
Mathew….are you still out there? Looks like pm stocks are hitting a bottom now!? Their streached down quite a bit now and the last couple daz gold was winning on the downside move big time. Smf is always a good leading indicator and its all the way back to the lows and thats not pretty.
This year looks nothing like last yrs move. Not near as constructive.
This is the 15th day down for the miners priced in gold. Yesterday’s selling could easily have marked the low. Today was for buying, either way, in my book.
The miners can easily bottom and start to rise well ahead of gold.
GDXJ:GLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p90050916513&a=490095165
Fwiw, my portfolio of juniors is still up almost six-fold since the Jan. 2016 low and I never used sell stops or exited the market in a meaningful way. I just keep buying weakness, selling strength, and rotating positions.