USD and timing for buying precious metals stocks
Doc and I discuss the downward move in the USD today and take a look at the longer term trend. It has been pretty boring. We are not seeing any major moves for a while. We also look at the precious metals stocks in a broad sense to get an idea of timing on a bottom. It’s worth a consideration.
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Doc,
What kind of bounce do you see from here/if any, in the pm miners ?
Thanks
Pete, GDX could bump up to 23 but then it’s questionable whether it holds
Thank you,Doc.
I noticed some copper and uranium shares up today, but that might have been due to my buying. E.g. Goviex, PLG, WRN,TGB
CFS you rascal…. I’m all for Goviex doing great as I hold Denison, who spun out their African properties to Goviex, and they hold 25% of their shares.
As for PLG I hold a position in it as well, and made good money trading it in the first half of 2016, but I bought in too soon during the downward move last September. I watched the share price tank out bad, so I bought an even larger tranche in November of 2016 and trimmed most of it back in the second week of February. I just added back that position last week though, and now have a cost basis pretty close to parity. Longer term both their projects look very promising to me, but management made a few bad calls and had a few stalls back in 2016, so some investors gave up. I haven’t, and feel this will be a multi-bagger over the next 12-18 months.
At this point just watching Western Copper & Gold and Taseko. Are there any other Copper stocks you like CFS?
This pullback was quick and deep but still perfectly normal. It’s funny that so many turn so bearish so easily.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p85170771232&a=511804740
As in December, the turn happened at a Fibonacci time zone:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=13&id=p89631172046&a=511146714
Priced in real money (GLD), GDXJ looks great:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p10064129753&a=510939839
Looks great. The spot silver price turned up just above 16.80 early this morning, nearly reaching your confluence of support at 16.77. Not bad!
Funny!
It’s typical of bull markets for price to turn up before obvious targets are reached. Let’s see if the bears try again before the Fed announcement on Wednesday.
SLV turned precisely at a Fibonacci time zone and the .618 Fibonacci fan line:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=9&id=p33101513587&a=511613782
Well unfortuantely I was holding silver stocks, which have been diverging negatively with the other mining stocks. Admittedly, they have held pretty strong up until March and have handily outperformed the gold stocks over the last couple of years. I guess payback is a bitch. The last could of weeks have been absolutely brutal for me.
Silver stocks outperform on both the upside and the downside. The last few weeks have been a bit painful, in this corrective move, but it was a great time to deploy some dry powder. I actually started a number of new positions in the last 2 weeks and have added to many long time favorites.
Turn bearish?
What I have been seeing is “great time to buy”, nothings changed.
You must not read much because there’s plenty of fear right now.
UUP has broken its short term uptrend and is struggling to stay above the 50 day MA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p17806308085&a=511365632
Doc and Matthew, I see that NGD closed@2.90 and USAS@2.85
Which do you think will do better in 3 years?
Since USAS is a silver miner and NGD is 13.5 times the size, I think USAS will easily outperform NGD.
NGD looked great today as it took out two important resistance levels…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NGD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p04510174508&a=503205797
More support/resistance levels (weekly):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NGD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28429009043&a=503103050
MUX also looked great today. Should be a good race between MUX, NGD, and USAS.
Agreed Matthew on the out-performance from (USAS), due to it size, torque, Silver/Zinc exposure, and the fact that it’s still not properly valued, but now dual-listed. Over time we’ll see its percentage grow in the Silver ETFs as well.
Amercias Silver is still waaayyy under-followed and people private message me all the time on ceo.ca asking me more about it because they are just now hearing about it. Brent Cook when asked about it on a TF Metals show not long hadn’t even heard of them (but that isn’t surprising since he likes to diss on Silver in favor of Gold).
USA / USAS will have much more torque on improving metals prices as it relates to their margins and revenues, and this could really catapult it higher in share-price if silver gets back above $20 later in the year.
They are also not being properly valued for San Rafael coming on line this year and how that will improve their economics.
________________________________________________________________________
“We are very excited for our investors as the San Rafael Project is developed and transitions into production this year. The transition will prove to be a significant catalyst for our share price as it will drive our consolidated costs lower to silver industry, first quartile, cash costs and all‐in sustaining costs, and create considerable free cash flow. This is an accomplishment which neither of the predecessor
companies ever envisioned,” said Darren Blasutti, President and CEO of Americas Silver Corporation.
“Though 2016 silver and silver equivalent production was slightly below guidance, the Company was able to maintain its pattern of cost control and benefited from higher by‐product metal prices.” (meaning Zinc & Lead)
http://www.americassilvercorp.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=776928
BB; I already own USA—I’ve begun to purchase NGD since I don’t think there is much downside risk anymore—sure it could move down a little more but not a large % in my view. I believe USA has more of a chance to have a larger % move down currently—maybe I’ve biased since I would like to see that in order to purchase some more at a lower price.
Doc, didn’t realize you ever joined the Americas Silver crew. Welcome aboard. Yes, if it does pull back more I’ll add, but I’ve been adding heavy since late 2015. I’ve trimmed some back, so right now just enjoying the ride, but I’d still like to add more during this U-shaped recovery in the miners before things really get going over the next few years. Americas Silver is one of the stocks I plan on holding a core position in for the long haul. I’ve been with them since the Scorpio mining days, and have a position in their old spin-out Scorpio Gold as well.
Peter Hawley who really built up Scorpio Mining (now Americas Silver) and Scorpio Gold, has recently also become Chairman of the Board over at Defiance Silver. I’ve speculated before that down the road, I see Americas Silver making a move at Defiance Silver, and I’d be thrilled if they did.
Cheers!
___________________________________________________________________________
Peter J. Hawley – CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD, DIRECTOR
“Mr. Peter J. Hawley, BSc, BEng, PGeo. adds significant depth to the board with his 36 years of geological and mining experience spanning grassroots exploration through to development and production. Having worked extensively with a large number of intermediate and senior mining companies including Teck, Noranda, Placer Dome and Barrick Gold, Mr. Hawley was also the founder, CEO & Chairman of Scorpio Mining Corporation from 1998 to December 2014 when Scorpio combined with U.S. Gold and Silver Inc to form Americas Silver Corporation, where he still remains a Director. Peter is also the CEO of Scorpio Gold Corporation, a low cost open pit heap leach gold producer in Nevada, USA. Mr. Hawley has a track record of raising significant funds for private and public companies along with structuring mergers and acquisitions. ”
Bonzo,
When Rainy River comes on-line and into production, NGD is going to be a monster. I would say that NGD and USAS both have a place in a well balanced portfolio of diverse gold and silver miners. I don’t see any problem with NGD recapturing its old highs of around $14 US 12-24 months. $2.90-$3.00 today is a steal.
They will both be vastly higher in the next 2-3 years.
+1 Vortex.
The companies are very different so shouldn’t be an either/or question.
Matthew, excellent point. I want to own both of them going forward.
Speculators up net long dollar bets to highest since early Feb-CFTC, Reuters data
Great charts as always,
Thank you,Matthew
+1
Nice charts. I am only able to do basic ones on stockcharts. Looks like cdn$ might start turning up based on macd but oil is still headed much lower so it may not have bottomed.
BITCOIN dives to $1000………SEC reject ETF…….zh
what a ride this week……1300 to 1000…..
Yeah – saw that. Uh-oh…. (COIN) would have been an interesting ETF.
I’ve realized how uncool I am as it relates to crypto-currencies, in that I’ve never even used bitcoin yet. On days like today, it still seems a bit premature to wade into that pool, but I have buddies that rag on Gold often and love it when their Bitcoins appreciate. Today I just may need to rib them a little bit…. 😉
Rib um just a bit……… 🙂
Maybe I’ll just send them a list of all the Gold and Silver ETFs that the SEC is fine with.
(hehe)
Bagged profits on ZSL, JNUG, and NUGT.
Get Him a Body BAG! YEAAAAAH!
Silverdoctors weekly Wrap:
Im with you Excelsior. Ive never used/invested in bitcoin either. In the wake of yesterdays ridiculous trading range, Im not about to start. Going from just under 1300 to 980 in a matter of minutes is mind boggling. The term “volatile” doesnt give a such move justice. Makes you wonder whether an outside hand dipped into the bitcoin cookie jar?
If the SEC eventually allows a bitcoin ETF to the public, wont it increase the liquidity within the bitcoin market?
The ETF will only expand the market to those with brokerage accounts, but not registered with bitcoin websites. Any price fluctuations will have arbitrageurs to even up the ETF with the current bitcoin price (if there is enough volume being traded anyway).
Thanks Doc and Cory for this. Very usueful thoughts on possible targets in the coming weeks.
I think you’re right about GDX, Cory. It looks like the conventional markets could take miners with them. At least in the beginning of the route.
I also think the USD could start moving down, inverse to emerging currencies. (CEW)