What if the Fed changes the generally accepted script?
Everyone seems to be accepting that the Fed is going to raise rates and then revert back to more general dovish comments today. Chris Temple and I look at the less discussed and dismissed options that not many are considering. What if the Fed talks about unwinding its balance sheet? Or what if they say they dollar is too high? Many things could happen and that’s why we consider them this morning.
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CFS……you should repost the Ryan tape here……..thank J
Same old buzzwords (like data dependent) will get shuffled around. If the recovery continues at a 2% GDP which the Fed considers a strong recovery they will keep raising rates till they drive it to zero or negative and we get a recession. They will then have some tools left to play with. Remember years ago the common buzzword was “greenshoots” and we are still waiting for those shoots to grow.
I think “greenshoots”……was a code word for the FED to shoot some greenbacks cash out the back door….Uncle Ben picked up the greenbacks via some speeches … 🙂
Every Fed chair has some code for confusion ……Greenspan had his briefcase, Ben has some greenshoot maybe he like beansprouts……..Yellen will be known for data dependent, a new tax deduction you will be able at the end of the year.
forgot the word “take”…..
Osisko Mining drills 3.9 m of 10.9 g/t gold at Garrison
2017-03-15 10:34 ET – News Release
Mr. John Burzynski reports
Aurvista Gold’s OTC shares now DTC eligible
2017-03-15 09:27 ET – News Release
Mr. Keith Minty reports
Mr T & Cory – good discussion today on thinking outside the box on what may happen in economic policy moving forward with this administration, with the FedBabble, and with other Central Banks around the world.
We are in interesting times….
man we been saying that for years…………..ootbj
“For lack of better words….. ”
— The Big Owl
For all coin collector ……
The OWL COINLand shop is now open
Cha-ching!
Liftoff………
Fed up a .25%
Looking goood…………..PM in the pm……..
That would be a good show name “PMs in the pm”
A review of the day, and a peek into after-hours trading trends.
This show is Out Of The Box !
glad you think so ……you can co author it with me…….and I will let you take the lead.,, 🙂
I will take the co conspiracy of metals mining…….
We should have Irish do a segment, with the news of the week recap, followed by him downing a few shots of Irish Whiskey and then a few minutes of tap dancing in Leprechaun shoes.
gold decided to spike up.
look like it was going up before the comments…….
“Gold decided to spike up.” – Yeah….. what a shocker.
As we’ve discussed countless times on here in the past and the last few days….
The last 2 times the Fed Hiked rates, it was followed by 2 epic moves up in Gold & Silver and the Miners…… because real rates are still negative.
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ccj1gn-IMG_1849.JPG
After 9 years, of promises for hike after hike, we are now up to a whopping 1% interest rate from the FED, while real inflation is more like 3-4% . The government numbers are load of horse poop and their inputs are not tracking the cost of movies, food, healthcare, college tuition, etc…. or inflation is likely even higher than the historical 3-4% creep up in pricing.
Savers aren’t going to get rich at 1% rates, so for now with the Fed so far behind the curve, the precious metals will do just fine.
All those that were wrong the last 2 times (in Dec of 2015 and 2016) that were so sure Gold would fall out of bed, can scratch their head while it moves up again today for the 3rd time. Too Funny!!!
sliding back a bit now.
i think it logical a rate hike causes a stronger dollar = down gold.
for awhile anyway.
Gold and the Dollar can move up together. They are only inversely related about 55-60% of the time. However, a stronger dollar may pressure other commodities (like Oil) to a greater degree.
The Bob factor of companies doesnt seem to be working with czn, Bob wrote what they had in the ground @ 37 cents, theyre down to 24 today.
Usually Bob gets a jump.
I cant stand that company, followed them for years, maybe other people have noticed the same things I have.
Anyway, times are strange when we dont get the “Bob bump”.
B:
Everyone has gotten all bearish again. We will need to climb the wall of worry. But the bottom for shares was last week. This is wildly bullish for gold and shares but I don’t expect people to get it for a good while. I like Canada Zinc a lot. I know others don’t but if you watch me, I don’t spend much time worrying about what others think.
Other than Matthew and Excelsior. They are good.
since Trump reelected the CFTC head…………do not expect any change in gold for awhile
or not….seems one head was replaced in Feb , so we will see
Rate hike did the opposite of what you would expect. Dollar index fell .78% so gold is up exactly that. Not sure if the dollar might recover quickly or not.
What do you mean? It’s exactly what we expected.
The strongest rally we’ve seen in the metals and miners was in 2016 after the first rate hike the Fed did 8 years in Dec of 2015.
Then after talking in circles of Fedbabble (promising 4 rate hikes in 2016) we got one rate hike in Dec of 2016 ….. and it was followed by another epic run up in metals in miners from late December of 2016 through February of this year.
Again, real rates are still negative. 9 years later the Fed is up to a whopping 1% interest rate, and real inflation is 3-4 times that (or more).
Gold does great as rates get hiked in a negative real rate enviroment, and a number of people have posted countless charts on that for the last 2-3 years here on the KER.
This is exactly what anyone that follows historical action would expect to see.
Gold always spikes up but the dollar should go up too.
Not if people are losing confidence in the US.
Trump wants a lower dollar to increase exports and will stay on topic.
The real kicker, as debated yesterday, is at what point the rest of the world gets sick of the US government piling on Trillions after Trillions of dollars.
If they raise the Debt Ceiling today or tomorrow, then another massive wave of debt is coming and there is point where the world will decry that the “Emperor is wearing no Clothes.”
…. and if they don’t raise the Debt Ceiling (which is pretty unlikely) then the poop would really hit the fan and it could cause a dollar selloff.
yellen will be in “swamp swirl”……
😮
Just hit Flush and give her a swirlie
Will Trump change Cafe standards for automobiles?
Yellen said future rate hikes may be needed in future years to help sustain the recovery. That does not make any sense to me.
Nothing Yellen says makes any sense to anyone. She said there would be 4 definite hikes last year and we got 1. The FED members are full of it and have no idea what they are doing any more.
senile ……..can any say…….
I prefer Clueless – They are set in their ways and using the old playbook in uncharted waters.
You can’t fix a sinking ship but trying to take on more and more water (debt) and hope it will pick up momentum and rise above the waves. Never going to happen.
Lost ball in high weeds……….
The Fed is also boxed in and there is no way in mathematics for them them to raise rates above inflation to like 3-4% or higher without tanking the housing market, auto market, and entire economy. They can’t even service their debt at those levels, so like we’ve mentioned over and over……they’ve painted themselves into the corner.
I’d say 20 Trillion in Debt and growing is beyond high weeds…..
By the look of their strategy the last few years, they’ve been investing in weed stocks…
the autos …..are in a glut……
housing….. is overpriced…
retail ……stinks
commercial real estate….vacancy rates are up
food stamps…… are all time high
gasoline ………..in a glut
Right Excelsior — and reason for PM’s and Treasuries up and the US$ down is because Yellen pretty much said that we are ALREADY near a “neutral” funds rate — No rises in economic growth outlook — so this “cycle” is probably closer to its end than to the beginning.
Yes sir. The enthusiasm in the economic recovery is on very shaky ground, and the odds of them continuing to keep hiking are very slim if they actually look at the real data.
Gold & Silver and the miners are rallying because we are far from “Neutral” and real rates are still Real Negative….. Precious Metals do fine historically in that environment, and have after the last 2 hikes as well.
Today it looks like that trend is continuing with the #Gold & #Silver Miners are rallying strong. It’s turned out to be a very nice Green day.
$GDX up 7%
$SIL (the EFT) up 8%
$GOEX up 8%
$GDXJ up 10%
$SILJ up 7%
Yellen is a Californian Dumocrat, why would you expect her to put Trump and the economy over her political allegiance and banking interests?
If she goes back home , we can just push her over the edge and put her in fukie water
It is now clear the Federal Reserve will be content to drive the country into an economic collapse due to the debt bomb created by BOTH political parties.
I would hope for two consequences:
1. Elimination of the Federal Reserve, since it is now proven beyond any reasonable doubt to be nothing but a banking scam, enriching bankers and cronies of the deep state.
2. I wish for a literal Roman decimation of the politicians which are greedy leeches that have led the country into bankruptcy.
The Fed, the CDC, the FDA, the IRS are totally corrupt. If Trump takes them on he had better hire some private security and not trust the Secret Service.
Wow ; Unexplained secret agents , mystery British agents ?? Sinless Vlad the Impaler Putin , Magical holy President Trump . President Huff and Puff . Wish becomes delusion . Pray for Sanity . S
Obama used British agents to wire tap TRUMP………zh
according to three intelligent agent….info went to FOX news.
Obama is going to be on the hot seat for this one……
Obama went outside for the tap……..no good.
Did not use fbi,cia, nsa