A focus on the gold market with lower targets
Al joins me today on our conversation with Rick Ackerman and we are focusing on gold. Rick has some lower targets to share that match mine but he is still considering a retest of the lows back in late 2015.
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Stocks edging higher in anticipation of a rate hike?????? Is this is buy the rumor, sell the fact, like end of the day? Weird markets!
I went to 100 %cash on this rally. Took a nice gain on a big at&t holding. The market could suddenly turn down or the rally slowly fizzles away.
I had mentioned a 1135 to 1140 target yesterday.
$1155, Doc said something like that I think.
How did these rabid bear creatures end up here? lol
Gold is like the oil market. Both keep tempting you with a breakout on the charts and then you jump in and then the rally fails and you turn negative. Oil failed so many times at 55 and then 54. It has little chance of exceeding 55 any time soon.
Oil hit what might be a top near 49 and should head down as it gets shorted.
USO almost hit my $10 target I had from when it failed at 11. and came to within 2 cents yesterday. I think it eventually goes to the 9.40 to 9.50 area.
The extreme gold bearishness is palpable here and everywhere on the interweb;)!!!
Silver and gold miners just went into lift off!!!
I am still long, but you can’t trust Fed day action.
You’re right about Fed day action but, as you know, this is exactly what I expected – metals up, dollar down.
Considering the moves in the miners, I think we can trust this Fed day action.
GDXJ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p83958178893&a=511804740
True. The question is, if we have in fact found a near term bottom, how many more large oscillations will it take to beak out? Someone posted a long term weekly chart of the $XAU and I noticed back April 2002 or thereabouts when it hit its first major peak, it oscillated in a huge range for almost exactly 1 year before finally making a new high. Between the first peak it make 2 additional peaks (folowed by massive retracements–neither of which made a lower low) before finally starting the upleg that broke out.
We have already seen one such peak. do we get another one followed by a large retracement here?
The last 2 times the Fed hiked rates (in an overall Negative REAL rates environment) the metals and miners have rallied.
No surprise that metals & miners rallied once again today on another miniscule 1/4 % hike from the Fed.
So, Ricardo! What´s up???
GDX up 6.5% at time of this posting with over 54 million shares traded. Dollar ETF UUP down .80%.
So are you wannbes in on the money making or just arm chair quaterbacking?
On March 13, 2017 at 9:43 am,
Matthew says:
The Canadian dollar is in for some relief…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28624042389&a=487491837
I warned that the dollar looked bearish on the daily chart…
On March 11, 2017 at 1:47 pm,
Matthew says:
The dollar looks like it “knows” the Fed will hike on Wednesday…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p77099043728&a=511365632
So, Rick’s dire warning on PMs with a full guarantee (98) is now null and void. I believe he said he would be bullish upon seeing gold at 1214.50. We need a replay of this broadcast.
Don’t understand the bullishness of the conventionals though. Interest rate increases are precursors of all bear markets. Aren’t they???
Good point Silverdollar. Gold did pop above Rick’s target of $1214.50, so is he now bullish?
Rick, this morning you said you wanted to be “surprised” and see gold “pop above $1214.50.” Gold is now over $1220, having broke out after the FED announcement. You said you’d “be the first guy to turn bullish” if it went over $1214.5. So, are you surprised and bullish–at least short term?
I imagine the chickens will eventually come home to roost on this B.S Fed+Trump dead cat rally, but who knows when? This eight year counter trend rally is nothing short of unprecedented. I think the crash should come sooner than later but I’ve been wrong forever….I’m not even a “broken-clock” on that front:) (:
I have been looking at an $1140-1145 target. Below that it is a case of the floor falling out.
Gold is replaying 2009-2010 again.
Now gold failed recently at $1225, which was the 2009 price high in the bull market. Later gold made a low at $1155 in 2010 which for me was the start of a classic 3 peajs and a domed house chart [pattern and was thus a good stab at a bearish target for the bear market itself.
It is instructive that to see these points, I need to pull up an EIGHT YEAR chart for gold. Eight years and it has gone NOWHERE (caveat – that is in US dollars and the strong US dollar index at 100 means that gold looks worse priced in USD than in many other currencies).
8 year chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1
Perhaps it is the dollar that has gone nowhere. It’s “stability” in the last several years should be no surprise when you consider that it fell more than 90% versus gold between 2001 and 2011. It has merely taken a break from its plunge and is still down 80% vs gold since its 2001 top.
The real price of gold (gold vs commodities) nearly doubled from 2014 to 2016:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24CRB&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p01861938864
The soaring real price of gold is why gold has crashed versus the miners. the miners are suddenly much more profitable than they had been.
Gold priced in GDXJ, not dollars:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3AGDXJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p42347381784
Oil is up nearly 100% versus gold since 2/16 but would have to double again (vs gold!) just to get back to its 2014 high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p28220071969
Here is my chart:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/gold-pitchfork-worked-treat-1120-target.html
$1140 would not be another touch on the lower blue line
So many times in the last 15 years, I just get a kick out of listening to Rick, his numbers and his non-nonsense but almost poetic way with words.
Mkt knows FED’s always behind the curve..so inversly FEDs rush-pace to hike IS SCARY..WHATEVER THE REASON MIGHT BE..DT-EU-SUPERDEBTNOva …portraits possible high risk scearios..maily for Bonds. So cash flows into something “more meaningfull” ..PM sector
Mr Ackerman didnt eat during this podcst. That is why he wos just slightly wrong. Slightly. Dont laugh at him. He is good chapp 😊😊
Anyone who looks into a crystal ball will sometimes end up eating broken glass. Folks – remember market forecasting is simply trend following! Invest accordingly.
When Rick guarantees (98%) that gold is headed down approximately $50, I wonder if he’s selling futures……If I was that sure, I’d be doing just that.