Minimize

Welcome!

Oil and Gold Fundamentals and Technicals

Cory
April 3, 2017

Doc and I discuss the factors in play for oil and gold. Both markets continue to be more or less in no mans land but there are some fundamental drivers especially for oil that should be paid attention to.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
40 Comments
    CFS
    Apr 03, 2017 03:37 AM

    Gold and are a bit soft because of Qingming Day in China:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qingming_Festival

    CFS
    Apr 03, 2017 03:40 AM

    I thought I typed PMs after and above, bust must have hit a return key or something…..apologies. My eyesight is almost non-existent today.

    Apr 03, 2017 03:48 AM

    Rick Rule has the opinion that uranium stocks will not take off until Japan starts to bring their nuclear plants back online. Interesting.

      CFS
      Apr 03, 2017 03:01 PM

      It is not so much the Japanese nuclear plants being off-line, but the Japanese had a LOT of long-term Uranium contracts, which they are honoring, and putting that supply back into the market; together with actual selling off of their stockpile.
      We are fairly close, however, to the end of this.
      Public consensus in Japan still seems to be fairly anti-nuclear enery. I do not believe they will convert those nuclear plants which had been converted to coal or gas, back to nuclear. They aloso now have contracts in place for coal from Australia, so it is not so easy to go back to nuclear.

      On the other hand, China will have tens of new nuclear power stations coming on line each year fairly soon.

        Apr 03, 2017 03:34 PM

        Well stated CFS. Japan did just lift several injunctions on a few plants, but many of their off-line plants will be unlikely to come back on-line. However, as you stated, what China has coming on-line over the next few years dwarfs the size of the Japanese fleet, and there are reactors in India, Turkey, UAE, South Korea, Russia, the US, and France that will still expand the need for more fuel in a much bigger way. The global Nuclear fleet will be expanding with or without Japan’s participation.

        Apr 04, 2017 04:30 AM

        I feel sorry for all the children that will die from nuclear power. Of course, it won’t be as many as died when the railroads were being built, but even one is too many. See what I mean:
        https://www.archives.gov/files/education/lessons/anti-rail/images/propaganda-poster.gif

          Apr 04, 2017 04:38 AM

          That’s a pretty bleak outlook and is speculation. What about all the hospitals being run on power sourced from nuclear that are used for bringing children into the world, for powering all kinds of surgery, lights, and machines in hospitals that are keeping people alive? How about all the schools, daycares, and the children’s homes powered by nuclear energy that are protecting and raising children. Those are fact in many countries in the world and not speculation.

            Apr 04, 2017 04:40 AM

            The energy to power the developing world has got to come from somewhere, and Nuclear power has the least number of fatalities associated with it in comparison to Oil/Gas, Coal and Hydro Dam power. Again, facts over superstitions.

            Apr 04, 2017 04:46 AM

            How Deadly Is Your Kilowatt? We Rank The Killer Energy Sources
            James Conca

            “For coal, oil and biomass, it is carbon particulates resulting from burning that cause upper respiratory distress, kind of a second-hand black lung. Our lungs just don’t like burnt carbonaceous particulates, whether from coal or wood or manure or pellets or cigarettes. The actual numbers of deaths in China from coal use exceeded 300,000 last year since they have ramped up coal so fast in the last decade and they usually do not install exhaust scrubbers. The impact on their health care system has been significant in not just deaths, but in non-lethal health effects and lost days of work.”

            Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)

            Coal – global average 100,000 (41% global electricity)

            Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity)

            Coal – U.S. 10,000 (32% U.S. electricity)

            Oil 36,000 (33% of energy, 8% of electricity)

            Natural Gas 4,000 (22% global electricity)

            Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)

            Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)

            Wind 150 (2% global electricity)

            Hydro – global average 1,400 (16% global electricity)

            Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity)

            Nuclear – global average 90 (11% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)

            Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)

            *Look at which energy input is the least deadly…….. Yeup – Nuclear.

            Most people's nuclear fears are irrational, unfounded, and not based in any evidence.

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#dd1bbed709b7

          Apr 04, 2017 04:56 AM

          I was being sarcastic and poking fun at the Luddites here who have discovered a new bogey man in robots and artificial intelligence. Did you check out the link to the PROPAGANDA poster which is no less ridiculous than the current propaganda aimed at nuclear power, robots, and artificial intelligence? Let me reiterate in no uncertain terms once again: Nuclear power is 10,000 times safer than the next safest method of mass energy generation. THEREFORE, a return by Japan to other forms of mass energy generation will lead to MORE deaths and injuries. That is the sad truth.

            Apr 04, 2017 04:24 PM

            Wayne – I got ya and misunderstood the jest. I looked at the poster and did laugh, but thought you were being serious. Sorry, but I’ve been bombarded on this and other blogs with ridiculous comments, misinformation, and fear around nuclear so often, that I went into a rant.

            Sorry about that, but it was fun clarifying my thinking, and digging out that article on “How Deadly is Your Kilowatt?”

            Cheers!

            Apr 04, 2017 04:29 PM

            BTW I completely agree with you 2nd to last sentence above:

            “THEREFORE, a return by Japan to other forms of mass energy generation will lead to MORE deaths and injuries.”

            The fact that they’ve gone back to Coal, Oil, and Gas is only going to hurt more people, churn out more smog, and seems like a step in the wrong direction.

            I’ve posted before what a disaster it was for Germany to pound their chests that they were no longer going to utilize Nuclear and were go going renewable….. Well, that didn’t quite work out, and they ended up adding in Coal & Oil to their “Clean Energy” revolution. Their costs skyrocketed, the pollution got worse, and they ended up importing nuclear power from France when their renewable sources couldn’t come close to replacing the base-load power from nuclear.

            You’d think Japan would see that as a bad pattern to emulate, but instead they are heading down that same insane road. They are however turning on a few more reactors, just not their whole fleet.

    CFS
    Apr 03, 2017 03:50 AM

    Trump to donate this Quarter’s salary to maintenance of America’s battlefields within the Park Service.Estimated in need of over $200 million in maintenance deferred by the Obama administration.

    CFS comment: Seems like a token effort, comparing Presidential salary to Dept’s desires.
    (No one understands broke anyway)

      Apr 03, 2017 03:01 PM

      I thought Trump was not taking a salary……doesn’t matter,… better that he donate it, than having the treasury keep it and squander it ……..

        Apr 04, 2017 04:25 AM

        Giving money to the Dept. of the Interior is like giving a man a breast pump. Government wasn’t created to steward the land. I like the way the new head said it’s “our” land. More bull excrement from an overpaid government goon with a badge. And we lap it up.

    CFS
    Apr 03, 2017 03:07 PM

    I did hear talk that he was strong-arming some of his rich cabinet appointees to also donate their salaries.
    Could be interesting to set a precedent wherein public officials were not simply sucking at the public tit.

    Apr 03, 2017 03:15 PM

    Most gold stocks are catching a bid today, but they’re not really in position to go very far just yet.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

    Apr 03, 2017 03:25 PM

    Markets begin quarter on risk-averse note. There’s a lot of new data to start the quarter.

    https://www.ft.com/content/9cdc34c0-1813-11e7-9c35-0dd2cb31823a

    Apr 03, 2017 03:48 PM

    GCC (unweighted commodity complex) getting battered today on the daily chart–outside day down.

    The weekly and monthly charts look terrible too.

    Where she stops, nobody knows. My guess is new all time lows by the looks of it or darn near it.

      GH
      Apr 03, 2017 03:33 PM

      I have to agree, I certainly wouldn’t want to be long here.

      I expect oil to make another lower daily cycle low to form an ICL and YCL, so while GCC still has support at $19, I imagine it will break. Still, it’s a big leap to go from that to expecting new all time lows.

      I may buy a short ETF soon, and be looking for a low sometime this summer.

        Apr 03, 2017 03:57 PM

        Well, the head and shoulders on the weekly chart points to a target of 18.0 once the neckline breaks.

        GCC needs to reverse higher tomorrow and keep heading up this week to salvage the weekly chart. It needs to at least tag the 20 WMA at 19.55. It’s doable, but today’s hideous outside day candle on the daily chart needs to be completely reversed, which is a very tall order.

    Apr 03, 2017 03:08 PM

    Econ 101 — Silver Market Manipulation

    By Turd Ferguson | Monday, April 3, 2017 at 11:48 am
    Some say that everything you need to know you learned in kindergarten. I suppose that’s true to some extent. However, to fully understand the forces at play in Comex Digital Metal, it might be good to review some of the basic economics that are often taught in introductory Econ classes at your local college or university.

    Let’s start with a chart. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8252/econ-101-silver-market-manipulation

      Apr 04, 2017 04:43 AM

      Excellent article. Too bad the average American doesn’t know Turd.

    Apr 03, 2017 03:09 PM

    The Platinum:Gold ratio bounced off its lower Bollinger band today. And most platinum stocks have held up quite well over the past 3 weeks. The Ivanhoe Mines Ltd chart is quite impressive.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?IVN.TO

    Apr 03, 2017 03:18 PM

    Ira Epstein Metals Update for today.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBHtHZPVS7Q

    Apr 03, 2017 03:02 PM

    This may be off topic on this thread and I have not posted in awhile……However I chimed in o the comment section of a WSJ article “Rethinking the Widely Held 2% Inflation Target” and I thought it may be on interest here…..so for what it worth:
    Article link:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethinking-the-widely-held-2-inflation-target-1491138003
    My comment:

    Sure demographics suggest a bias toward deflation but “inflation” is a monetary phenomenon.
    Monetary inflation has already happened thus the 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet, et al.
    “Price inflation” is now just a measure of the velocity of the currency the Fed has long ago debased.
    It is about time an economy such as ours piles on and further demeans the already prostituted medium of exchange.  And what happens if USD goes the way of the British Pound and runs to the end of its course as the world reserve currency.
    The US will meet all its obligations as it degrades the purchasing power of the payments that it makes. 
    But be careful!
    If you reduce the size of what once was a half-gallon of ice cream anymore than you already have, people are going to catch on that they are getting screwed.

      Apr 03, 2017 03:25 PM

      Good comment Dennis. As yo put if the USD is no longer the reserve currency there will be some pretty major shifts in where money is flowing… None of it good for the USD.

      Thanks for the comment!

        Apr 03, 2017 03:12 PM

        Deflation, is definitely here, wages will fall faster than the half gallon of ice cream, getting screwed will be because the jobs are not available, China or the US. DT

          Apr 03, 2017 03:17 PM

          Humans can’t compete with artificial intelligence and machines don’t eat anything including what humans really like sugar, fat, and salt. DT

            Apr 03, 2017 03:26 PM

            I have been saying this for a very long time and now others are on the bandwagon, as a species we have designed our own demise. DT
            http://theweek.com/articles/689359/how-humans-lose-control-artificial-intelligence

            Apr 04, 2017 04:16 AM

            Sugar and fat made from carbon and hydrogen just like gasoline.

            Artificial intelligence is man-made intelligence. It is dependent, derived, and contingent. Which means AI can’t compete with humans. The creature can never defeat the creator. Just think of AI as the head of a golf club which always travels faster than the human hands that wield the grip end. Leverage, man.

      Apr 03, 2017 03:45 PM

      People should already know they are getting screwed……even the educated ones…..

    Apr 03, 2017 03:41 PM

    Retail bankruptcies soar in 2017…..zerohedge

      Apr 03, 2017 03:42 PM

      we have about 3 times more retail than we need….if not more…….

        Apr 03, 2017 03:44 PM

        Maybe we need some more Ice cream shops………