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A couple backup the truck numbers from Rick

Cory
April 25, 2017

The US markets are following through today and gold continues its move down. Rick Ackerman shares his updated technical outlooks for the S&P, gold, and GDXJ. There are a couple back up the truck numbers that Rick feels strongly about.

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Discussion
72 Comments
    Apr 25, 2017 25:40 AM

    $indu:gld huge inverse head and shoulders/cup and handle on the weekly chart. The target will take the ratio back above the 200 month MA. Sure, this is “linear” thinking, but basically betting against US stocks since 2009 has been suicide.

    This is all yen carry driven. Any weakness in the yen and US stocks rocket up, and strength in the yen and US stock trend mildly down to sideways at worst. Witness the last few months as yen has rallied. The rally is over and now its time for US stocks to rocket higher.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:00 AM

    Yen is getting smashed. Down over 1%. The secular trend continues. US stocks to the moon. We will never have another 20% correction in the US stock market again, at least in nominal terms. The dollar will be sacrificed before the US stock market. The BoJ is more than happy to bend over for their US overlords.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:21 AM

    Everything is fine………..real estate sales soar, highest since 2008…….who needs junk silver.(lol)……….zerohedge….

    Apr 25, 2017 25:25 AM

    Fed can put another couple of Trillion on the balance sheet….no problem, pay for it later.

      Apr 25, 2017 25:33 AM

      Trump now likes Yellen, strong dollar and low interest rates……….zerohedge

        Apr 25, 2017 25:35 AM

        according to the news…..96% of the Trump supporter think he is doing a good job.

      Apr 25, 2017 25:34 AM

      Quite so Jerry – a couple of kilos of second-and silver at throw away prices. Oh well might as well as buy! Who was it said that silver is gold on steroids come the day?! …Must have been Bo Polny – lol!

        Apr 25, 2017 25:37 AM

        Bo needs to get on his Pony and sing” Jubilee here we come”…lol

      Apr 25, 2017 25:41 AM

      They don’t need to. All they need is for the yen to keep falling. That delta is tacked onto the US markets x10. It’s called the yen carry trade and it has been wondrous for the US market. All the Fed needs to do is stay tighter than the BoJ and its up up and away for the US market.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:36 AM

    Dow nudging 21k so everything’s on a tear, except precious metals.

      Apr 25, 2017 25:38 AM

      I think we are going lower…..if , the Fed is back in control, which Trump likes Yellen, we are headed into Deeper DEBT…..

        Apr 25, 2017 25:41 AM

        I am always wrong…….

          Apr 25, 2017 25:28 PM

          So if you are always wrong, and you say “I am always wrong” — are you then always right?

            Apr 25, 2017 25:29 PM

            Inquiring minds want to know…..

            Apr 25, 2017 25:50 PM

            I think, therefore I am………… 🙂

            Apr 25, 2017 25:57 PM

            René Descartes will be added to your list of monikers 😉

            Apr 26, 2017 26:44 AM

            Ok, just discard’e the other ones………. 🙂

      Apr 25, 2017 25:39 AM

      Bo stands to eat crow by Friday judging from his predictions on Greg Hunter’s how!
      7 X 7 = 13.
      Oops dollar gone below 99.

        Apr 25, 2017 25:40 AM

        Correction: Hunter’s show

        Apr 25, 2017 25:43 AM

        Bo, needs to get out of signs and wonders, …..

          Apr 25, 2017 25:43 AM

          I like Bo Derek better than Bo Polny! DT

            Apr 25, 2017 25:31 PM

            How about Bo Diddley?

            ….or, how about Bo Polony doesn’t Know Diddly

            Apr 25, 2017 25:51 PM

            now that is a good one………. 🙂

            Apr 25, 2017 25:57 PM

            It had a nice ring do it….

            GH
            Apr 25, 2017 25:47 PM

            Bo-loney Polny

            Apr 26, 2017 26:43 AM

            Phoney Bo!

    Apr 25, 2017 25:37 AM

    The $XJY is putting in a nasty shooting star candle on its monthly chart. Odds are it heads to the lower monthly bollinger band before bottoming.

    The monthly stochastics are hanging out sideways just like gold’s and $hui’s. Odds are they all head to oversold levels before reversing on the monthly charts. At best its dead money for months. At worst, the 2016 rally was nothing but a bear market rally.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:42 AM

    Here’s a sure-fire bet: Theresa May gets back in with a massive Tory majority on June 8th. Current odds stand at 1:18.

    CFS
    Apr 25, 2017 25:43 AM

    Off TOPIC:

    Archeology; My piramid is bigger and older than yours.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvaJrlOHfOo

    Apr 25, 2017 25:44 AM

    Cory,

    Any chance of asking Rick or Doc their thoughts on Copper or giving your own thoughts re the Copper charts?

    TIA.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:46 AM

    The yen’s monthly chart and the $HUI monthly chart look almost identical in terms of the relationship between the 20 month MA and the declining 50 month MA. Both the yen and $hui have had death crosses on the monthly chart, and price has been pinned between the declining 50 month MA and the rising 20 month MA for 6 months now. I think there is a good chance they all do what $sugar did back in 2001–which is the 20 month MA will fail and they will all basically retest their lows.
    When $sugar failed to hold the 20 month MA back in 2001, it dropped for the next 1.5 years and got pretty close to its secular low made in 1999 before really getting into gear.

    CFS
    Apr 25, 2017 25:46 AM
      Apr 25, 2017 25:04 AM

      concerning gold……the guy does not know about history,….silver was divided into pieces of eight, for smaller purchases,,,like wise, you can breakdown gold into pieces if need be.
      I do agree with him on the ratio……….

    Apr 25, 2017 25:49 AM

    silver stinks……..said that last week………stinks even more this week…….

      Apr 25, 2017 25:50 AM

      ratio going to hit 80 to 1…..before long……

    Apr 25, 2017 25:54 AM

    HUI……taking a beating today………back at 190….

    Apr 25, 2017 25:03 AM

    Stocks are rallying, Nasdaq breaks 6,000 for the first time (Hooray!!)

    Myles Udland -April 25, 2017

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rallying-nasdaq-breaks-6000-first-time-133705953.html

      Apr 25, 2017 25:04 AM

      I’m sold all my miners today and went in 100% into the Nasdaq.

      What could possibly go wrong?

        Apr 25, 2017 25:05 AM

        back up the truck………

          Apr 25, 2017 25:06 AM

          fill it with fertilizer………..

            Apr 25, 2017 25:06 AM

            I should have said……OLD TIME fertilizer……..

            Apr 25, 2017 25:07 AM

            Barn yard type, ….for all you city slickers…….

            Apr 25, 2017 25:18 AM

            Are you making a fertilizer kaboom and sending it to the Nasdaq?

            Apr 25, 2017 25:20 AM

            I never thought of that ………..

            Apr 25, 2017 25:25 AM

            just a stink…..kaboom…

            Apr 25, 2017 25:33 PM

            What a pile…..

        Apr 25, 2017 25:14 AM

        Actually, nothing will go wrong. The worst is a 5% sideways correction over a couple of months. But before that Nasdaq will probably tack on another 1000 pts.

          Apr 25, 2017 25:23 AM

          Spanky – Are you basing that the longer term charts, on the confidence in the central bankers, or just a gut feeling?

          While I agree the corrections have been very shallow for some time, how can anyone know if future corrections will be 5% or less?

            Apr 25, 2017 25:38 AM

            Because the Fed knows that every pension fund in the US depends on the stock market continuing to climb. One more stock crash and it is game over–the Fed knows this and so it will never happen in nominal terms. That’s called moral hazard. Unfortunately, gold and silver are not guaranteed by the Fed, so their fate is anyone’s guess. The bottom line is though, the US stock market looks poised to head to the moon. Just wait until the yen breaks down. The Dow will be 25,000+ when the yen retests its 2015 low. With the US market its head I win, tails you lose.

            Apr 25, 2017 25:12 AM

            So this time is different, Spanky?

            Stocks corrected about 40% in the 2000-2002 decline and over 50% in the 2007-2008 decline. There’s no reason to think that a normal correction will be avoided this time.

            Beware the toppy-talk poppycock.

            Apr 25, 2017 25:22 AM

            spanky has some wonderful thoughts……..to the moon………

            Apr 25, 2017 25:21 PM

            yes, this time its different. You have a Fed who has basically backstopped the US market. See the Zimbabwe stock market for our future.

            Apr 25, 2017 25:38 PM

            Interesting discussion. I get that you think the central banks want to keep the pension funds happy and avoid the “moral hazard”, but that is giving too much strength and insight to the Central Bankers (which they don’t deserve).

            A normal correction is 15-30% or greater (not 5%) and nothing goes up in a straight line forever. This 8 year rally out of 2009 is already long in the tooth, and the party will come to screeching halt at one point, and then the hangover will set in.

            “After the Ecstasy…..there is the Laundry”

            OOTB – I agree that Spanky has some interesting thoughts and appreciate hearing the different perspective. I always like Don Corleone commentary for the same reasons.

            Matthew – that “toppy-talk poppycock” comment made me chuckle. (and yes I tried to say it 5 times fast).

            Apr 25, 2017 25:15 PM

            Every major market top for the last century has come with lots and lots of people explaining why it’s different this time and they’ve been wrong 100% of the time.

            “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.'” –
            Sir John Templeton

            Just before the crash of 1929, economist Irving Fisher said: “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

            Most would expect an economist to know better.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher

            Apr 25, 2017 25:24 PM

            Matthew – will you mind contacting me on private message on ceo.ca ?

            Just click on the Private Message feature in the top left hand corner of my name (black box) and then select “Send a Direct Message”.

            Thanks in advance. Here’s a link to my page.

            https://ceo.ca/@excelsior

            Apr 25, 2017 25:25 PM

            You should also not assume that you know the Fed’s every move. The powers that be aren’t playing checkers.

            https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/hegel/help/easy.htm

            Apr 25, 2017 25:35 PM

            Ex, it looks like I have to wait for verification before I can do anything.

            Apr 25, 2017 25:00 PM

            Shoot. Forgot about that. Typically a few hours to one day to make sure you aren’t a returning troll. (A good policy by the way)

            Still, hit me up tomorrow or the next day. Cheers!

            Apr 25, 2017 25:24 PM

            I sure will.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:20 AM

    Once slv breaks below its 100 dma (and the ichimoku cloud on the daily chart), that is when the real sell off will start. Fundamentals are irrelevant when yen is getting crushed. As long as the Fed stays tighter than the BoJ (the rest of time) the US stock market is headed for Uranus.

    CFS
    Apr 25, 2017 25:34 AM

    Avino drills 20 m of 2.32 g/t Au, 66 g/t Ag at Avino

    2017-04-25 09:36 ET – News Release

    Mr. David Wolfin reports

    AVINO ANNOUNCES FURTHER RESULTS FROM ITS CURRENT EXPLORATION DRILL PROGRAMS (BETWEEN THE SAN LUIS WORKINGS AND ELENA TOLOSA WORKINGS, AND TO THE WEST OF SAN LUIS) AT THE AVINO MINE

    Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. has released the following results from a further 10 holes of its originally planned 18-hole drill program (3,000 metres) at the main Avino mine located on the Avino property, 80 kilometres northeast of Durango, Mexico. The results from the first eight holes of the drill program were released on Dec. 21, 2016, and are available on the company’s website.

    The objective of the foregoing drill program which commenced in September, 2016, was to explore the area of the Avino vein system between the San Luis workings and the Elena Tolosa (ET) current production area. This new area is close to surface and accessible from the existing Avino mine underground workings. The area was identified as a target of interest and may have been overlooked in the past given that on surface and at shallow depths, the Avino vein system splits into hangingwall and footwall structures.

    The 18-hole drill program was completed with hole ET-17-11 in mid-March, and in order to fully evaluate the tonnage and the grade of the new zone, Avino decided to extend the program with an expected additional 20 drill holes. The drill is currently completing hole ET-17-17 (the sixth hole of the extended 20-hole program).

      Apr 25, 2017 25:41 PM

      Congrats to David Wolfin and the Avino team for some good (but not great) drill results. Still solid enough to keep expanding resources.

    CFS
    Apr 25, 2017 25:35 AM

    Osisko Mining drills 2.8 m of 35.2 g/t Au at Windfall

    2017-04-25 08:26 ET – News Release

    Mr. John Burzynski reports

    OSISKO INTERSECTS 35.2 G/T AU OVER 2.8 METRES AT WINDFALL

    Osisko Mining Inc. has released new results from the continuing drill program at its 100-per-cent-owned Windfall Lake gold project located in Urban township, Quebec. The current 400,000-metre drill program combines definition drilling above the Red Dog intrusion, expansion drilling above and below Red Dog, expansion drilling to the northeast of the main deposit, and exploration drilling on the greater deposit and Urban-Barry project area. Significant new analytical results from eight drill holes focused on infill and expansion drilling in the Lynx discovery as well as the Caribou, Underdog and the 27 zones are reported in the associated table.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:47 AM

    The HUI, just like silver has not been able to stay over the 50 month MA for 9 months now. All you have to do is wait for price to rise above that MA intra-month and then short away until price drops back below. It’s a sucker’s game pinning your hopes that somehow next month will be different and price will break out. For that matter, on $hui we still have not gotten a cross of the rising 20 month MA over the 50 month MA. $hui could easily fail here before that cross over, and then kiss price good bye to the downside. The next stop is the lower monthly bollinger band, which is still light years away (currently at 105 if you look at the 18,2 bollingers).

    Apr 25, 2017 25:53 AM

    Wait until the monthly stochastics are oversold on $hui before buying. The odds of the stochastics reversing higher here are basically zero. That means we have a couple more month of downside, at a minimum.

    We either get a severe drop and reversal, or we leak lower more gradually over the next year to 1.5 years until sentiment is completely pummeled again. Even in the latter scenario though there will be big drops lower. Again, I still think that $hui will tag the lower monthly bollinger band before it reverses. That means either a severe drop now, or a slow grind lower as the bollinger bands finally start to tighten up.

    Apr 25, 2017 25:03 AM

    Spanky,
    I think you are correct regarding the PM space. It’s going to get ugly. The conventional stocks should take a turn south too, perhaps later this week.
    Industrial commodities and EMs should start to head up soon. So..we got that going for us, which is nice. And this late summer should be the final lows in the PMs, which makes for a great buying opportunity…

    Apr 25, 2017 25:06 AM

    The silver miners that have zinc, copper and other metals shouldn’t get hit too hard.

      Apr 25, 2017 25:43 PM

      Great point Chartster. I still don’t believe the marketplace is giving these base metal credits like Zinc, Lead, Copper enough valuation in the product mix of many of these producers. When they report their Q1 numbers they won’t be as “ugly” as the current share prices indicate.